guest: alan abramowitz is a friend of mine and a terrific political scientist at emory university. i have his book on my bed stand. it is waiting to be read as soon as i finished john mccain's book, which i am mostly through. , ourh david wasserman house editor, was here, because he is our granular effort. york,rk 22, upstate new this is the republican incumbent claudia tenney in a district that in presidential elections votes six points more republican than the rest of the country. level playing field, democrats might have a chance of winning this one but it would be pretty uphill. haveyear when republicans some headwinds, democrats have some tailwinds as appears now, this is one that is in play. we have this race rated as a tossup, which means it is one of the top -- it would be one of the 30 best chances democrats have of knocking off a republican. this is a top-tier democratic challenge. host: let me turn to another 2021, one ofork the youngest republican female candidates to be elected to the house of representatives. guest: that is why you can't go just hard and fast by the n