this is alan blinder, or fess up economics, former vice chair of the federal reserve as well. his most recent book, "after the music stopped: the financial crisis, the response, and the work ahead." professor blinder, who caused the recession? >> guest: wow, this is one of those things like how long do you have for an explanation? i think you start with the pogo principle. it was us and the us is mainly in this case people speculating on houses, people taking mortgages. they thought they knew or have to knew they couldn't afford and more sophisticated people. that was the ordinary people. then you had the allegedly more sophisticated people that turned out not to be so sophisticated who are at the other end of this food chain buying up the crazy securities that wall street built on the crazy mortgage. so the pogo people, that cisco those are the crazy mortgage. in between those two you had the banks, mortgages alone, there's two or suicides, the borrower and lender. it's one thing if people were not watching out properly for their own self interest or you could say not behavin

now on your screen a familiar face and name to those in economic circles alan blinder who is a professor of economics former vice chair of the federal reserve as well. his most recent book, "after the music stopped" the financial crisis, the response and the work ahead. professor blinder who caused the recession? >> guest: this is like one of those things, how long they offer an explanation? i think easter with a poco principle. it was thus and they ask mainly in this case people speculating on houses, people taking mortgages they knew her half fake couldn't afford and more sophisticated people. it that was the ordinary q. and then you have the allegedly more sophisticated people it turned out to the not so sophisticated who are at the other end of this food chain buying up the crazy securities that wall street builds on the crazy mortgages. the poco people, that's us, those that occur crazy mortgages. in between those two you have the banks. mortgages alone there were two sides the borrower and the lender so there's one thing for people who are not watching properly for their own self-i

we will ask alan blinder, joining us. a number one question on oil as it heads for its biggest to your loss ever. producers want to keep pumping more. before we get to the markets, this is tokyo. celebrating their fireworks ringing in 2016. one of the first cities to be doing so. sydney, i believe, the first to celebrate the new year. we will be doing that in a little bit. we'll get our time. about a half hour into the trading session. i want to head to the markets desk were julie hyman is standing by. julie: i'm happy to start celebrating right now. betty: break out the champagne. julie: market participants are not celebrating. selling onng some the last day of the year. all major averages are down by a half of percent this year. -- one half of a percent. right now it is looking like a loss on the year. the year-to-date performance of the s&p 500 right now, a decline of about .25%. tolooks like we are going post a loss for the year and the worst annual performance if it keeps on this track since 2008. getting back to tod

on the bank. >> as we count down to the big fed decision at the top of the hour, let's bring in alan blinderer vice chairman of the federal reserve, also professor of economics and public affairs at princeton. mr. blinder, good to have you with us, as always. back in september, the last time we talked, you were prescient. you didn't think the fed would move and you didn't think they should move. you were right. what do you say today? >> well, i think like everybody, i think they're almost certainly going to move the range up 25 basis points. at this point it would be a total shock if they don't. i read this morning that 90% of market people think they will. i don't know what the other 10% are thinking, to tell you the truth. >> and do you think they should? we just heard from jeffrey gundlach that he sort of thinks -- obviously a prominent voice in the bond world, in investing overall -- that they shouldn't move based on dat ta t they will move based on the fact they have promised it for so long and to back away from that would affect their credibility. >> i think there is something to this

commentst's start with from alan blinder.e us comments on monetary policy is changing. : the u.s. is on a march towards normality. how long is taking? asy don't see that all important. the entry of china and more and more ways into the world economy is going to matter. but there is a much longer term focus at these meetings and with economists in general than you see in the markets. scarlet: there is a report that vodafone is in merger discussions with liberty global. according to the paper, investors have been encouraging the companies to pursue a deal. ince the financial crisis 2008, banks have eliminated 200-6000 positions. oftsche bank will get rid 26,000 jobs by the end of 2018. sugar prices will post in a no advance for the first time in five years. it is up 4% for the first time this year. and 2016 to be better. and producers can thank el niÑo for that. it has hurt crops in india and thailand. it is time now for a bloomberg quick take. is iron ore boom and bust. iron ore stands out. the 225 billion dollar market relies

we will ask alan blinder, joining us.ds for its biggest to your loss ever. producers want to keep pumping more. before we get to the markets, this is tokyo. celebrating their fireworks ringing in 2016. one of the first cities to be doing