grindered chairman alan -- former fed vice chairman alan blinder. ggest this is the case where the wisdom of crowds may be wrong. alan: exactly. maybe is exactly the right word. you know the old adage, the stock market critics -- pre dicts. sometime.lson said it sometimes it can be an indicator of the economy. sometimes it is wrong. that's a reason why the federal reserve does not want to take it too seriously. mike: you don't think we are seeing the sign of an imminent collapse? signs andn't see any i don't think the fed sees any signs of anything like the collapse in the economy. remember, we haven't been growing that fast. a little sag will make it a little worse, but nothing like the collapse. scarlet: let's get a data check on how things stand. as expected, no change. the alteration and the -- in the language. 0.84%,e two-year yield, unch. i will go with that. i want to emphasize that there is too much of that within the fed game. waitrn to the market and a to equities. scarlet: welcome back to this special edition. one thing everyone was focuse

well i took umbrage to that and alan blinder, thank you very much for being here.n with the market today, would you repeat those same points you think that everybody is being irrational? >> well, i wouldn't say that. i want to say at the outset, i don't know how you tell whether stocks in general are too high or too low. i don't claim to know that. the claim was that the way the market has lately been dancing up and down to the price of oil as if oil going up in price is good for the united states and oil going down in price is bad for the united states, has got it backward. >> you mentioned china and mentioned oil and why you think they are just not a real worry spot. but you don't talk about the u.s. dollar or tightening credit markets or the global dollar squeezed broadly that a lot of people fear is happening. >> sure. >> why not? >> well, you've got 850 words you have to pick about what you're writing about and what i had noticed is that this dance to the price of oil and also to china. now, china is different. it's not like they've got the direction wrong. ba

alan blinder with princeton university. >> thank you. >>> tyler just mentioned that surprising reportn the labor market suggests layoffs may have increased recently. the number of workers filing applications for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 293,000. that is the highest level in six months. claims have risen three of the last four weeks. but overall they remain at levels consistent with steady job creation. >> meantime, a closely watched measure of manufacturing in the mid-atlantic states is the weakest it's been now in three years. the new survey from the philadelphia federal reserve shows that manufacturing was lower in january though at a slower pace than anticipated. however, a measure of future expectations for the sector. this is the one that people really paid attention to. took a worrisome turn for the worse. energy companies cutting orders for new equipment. that depresses manufacturing activity. >>> low oil and low commodity prices in general have hit the rails quite hard. cargo volumes have dropped and things aren't looking much better headin

alan blinder. >> you got to wonder how much debate there was around that global risk statement. >> yeah. >> in and out. >> exactly. and back in at the last minute. the countdown, we should add, is on now. 34 minutes, two seconds, until the fed's latest rate decision and the statement. larry kudlow weighs in on what the fed needs to do amid the global market volatility. and positioning your portfolio ahead of the announcement. all of that when we come right back. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity. so i'm going to take this opportunity to go off script. so if i wanna go to jersey and check out shotsy tuccerelli's portfolio, what's it to you? or i'm a scottish mason whose assets are made of stone like me heart. papa! you're no son of mine! or perhaps it's time to seize the day. don't just see opportunity, seize it! (applause) i'i like to think of myself as more of a control... enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i

i also think that alan blinder raised some very good points in a terrific op ed segment. >> the two that you are getting wrong is china. >> we have talked about that a number of times during this incredible selloff we have seen in 2016. he did put it to paper and had some assumption s in terms of te gdp, an export-led economy. not of that much importance of our overall gdp and made the point on oil which has been made over and over again by the series of excellent guests they had on "squawk box," including jack lui, the treasury secretary, saying, why is it we are painting this as a one-way story here and oil is suddenly going down is only bad. >> $100 billion saved in terms of the import amount of money that goes overseas. a very good reminder. he made the point that people we export to will get hurt. they are giving up on the reality letting the currency go wherever the heck it is going to go. that could cut gdp but it is still very small. union pacific, urfourth quarter revenues. chemicals, down 7%. pbg did good today but trimming, saving money. agricultural products, down to 12%. air