of the mind of alan greenspan i don't know if you can really see this but it's something that i whipped up and stacey it does relate to our first story as i understand it looks like some stag sites or what do they call this things that hang from those. i think the ones that come up from the cave floor the stigmata well that's the blood that came out of jesus during the crucifixion i'm not sure the hardening of his mind did the singleminded well greenspan is back and he still speaking fed speak and a little bit less so because you could understand a little bit better and that is greenspan sees no stock excess warns of bond market bubble by any measure real long term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable the former federal reserve chairman who is ninety one said in an interview when they move higher they're likely to move reasonably fast we are experiencing a bubble not in stock prices but in bond prices this is not discounted and the market place because you know a lot of he i think he's responding to the fact that many people are saying stock markets are in a bubbl

i'm looking at alan greenspan coul . i feel he's having a flashback.s talking about stagflation the other day. that's when you have week economic activity and high inflation. we have the opposite of strong economic activity and lowflation. in the future, real yields on risk-free assets -- i don't think they should necessarily be positive. priya: i agree with you entirely. the 10 year question depends a lot on inflation. absolutely these prices are mispriced, but i'm not so sure with technology and the good economy that these bonds are becoming larger and larger and the share of the labor is declining. i'm not sure inflation is really about to take off. jonathan: the story of a bond bubble of the idea that argentina could come to the market and issue a century bond at a decent yield and iraq has offered it seven times oversubscribed. when people comes to you with those issues, what do you say to them about your own thoughts? nick: i think there's massive complacency in the market place . we have insatiable yield and lots of uncertainties and people are

mark: alan greenspan it, we had one guest disagree with him.e said don't look at stocks, look at bonds. everyone is going to be hit. >> i half agree with alan greenspan. there is no bubble. returns are going to be low. there is no level in bonds. we cover the industry and the hedge fund industry. hardly anyone i know was long bond or it -- bond. he is go to the states, virtually the only one who is an long bonds. you see people short ons. there are non-price-sensitive buyers, pension funds and insurance companies, there is not a bubble at all. what i do agree with alan greenspan is returns are likely to be low from government bonds. 22,000, it could happen very soon. calculations. this whatng to derail seems to be never ending bull market in the u.s. western mark >> we have another correction. it it could come from anywhere. what indicators do you look for? you don't look for low volume. everyone is looking at nine the next. that's a terrible idea. wealth damage, if you do the math, low volume means you should stay long equity. if you look at e

story, butis a great essentially alan greenspan has been saying this for a long time. why should we suddenly taken seriously now? >> i think we have a little bit of time before they actually jump, the yields. there are so many factors that are permanently depressing yields at this point. don't forget about low inflation. we are not going to see much pickup in inflation, just beca use of the composition of inflation. wage pressures are not there. we don't see that much of a pickup in core inflation because of that. i don't see any reason to be too much concerned at this point. out that theints real driver of fx trends is real yield. i the bottom of the monthly range, you have in places like capital, australia, japan, the united kingdom. they've risen a bit.even in the u.s. they haven't. >> is an interesting point and it's worth watching what's happening in the global landscape, say the ecb and mario know, he's going to speak at jackson hole this year. whether he's going to signal easing in policy, that's probably going to drive markets to a large extent. oliver: i think

will be bad news for everyone joining us right now with more is former federal reserve chairman alan greenspans the president of greenspan associates and mr. chairman, thank you so much for being here. >> good morning. good morning, becky. >> good morning. tell us what concerns you when you look at the bond markets right now? >> well, if you go back to the time of alexander hamilton, long-term interest rates, government bond interest rates, have never been as low as they are today. and interest rates have no long-term trend. we go back in to ancient times, and when we could get interest rates, it looks very much like what we have today so the current level of interest rates is abnormally low. and there's only one direction in which they can go and when they start it will be rather rapid. >> you predicting a timing on this people think back to irrational exuberance and get very worried. when you first talked about irrational exuberance with the stock market evaluations it took awhile before the market caught up to that and followed suit >> i have no time frame on the forecast i have a chart whi

it comes from the former fed chairman, alan greenspan.he says "the real problem is when the bond market bubble collapses, long-term interest rates will rise. we are moving into a different phase of the economy -- to a s since the not seen 1970's. that is not good for asset prices." this?is there a truth in fear and bond of markets the crash, if you saw slot -- that sort of correction, it would lead to a sharp person in stock prices as well. there is his argument that during qe, you see bond prices and equity prices moving together. so it stands to logic. emphasize in terms outcome,flation frankly, there is hardly any inflation to be seen globally. this may be something which is a threat further into the future. i do -- i am not sure if it is a threat for here and today. francine: and there seems to be a consensus that there will be lower rates for longer that will persist. of people, including greenspan, say they will break higher quickly as normalization starts. where do you see the 10 year yield? looking at 250 moving day averages? mark

it came up during alan greenspan's tenure and the question was, during the bubbles, was whether they the fed has generally taken the position that it is not in the business of trying to control asset market values. it sees its job as inflation and employment, and allowing the asset markets to take ca re of allowing the asset markets to take care of themselves. undoubtedly people at the fed are thinking about this. as well as interest rates are very low, and inspected to remain low for a long time, including long—term interest rates, that contributes to high asset prices, because the alternative of returns from bonds is so low. what about elsewhere in the world? are we not now in an era where monitor policy is going to be tightening in interest rates are going to be going 7 interest rates are going to be going hey interest rates are going to be going re interest rates are going to be going hey are going interest rates are going to be going ' to interest rates are going to be going up? they are going to be going up in europe and asia. europe is a bit behind the us in terms of the eleme

and former fed chair alan greenspan has a message for investors. bubble notriencing a in stocks but in the bond market. from new york city, good morning. welcome to bloomberg daybreak: europe i'm jonathan ferro alongside alix steel and we can welcome back david westin. theing you up to speed on market action. two hours and 30 minutes away from the cash futures are positive on the s&p 500. the euro removed some of those big gains from yesterday. still very close to 2017 highs. treasuries stable. coming up, personal income and personal spending for june. plus the pc inflation data report. 10:00 we get the isn manufacturing data for july and later this morning u.s. automakers will report july light vehicle sales. good indicator for the market and consumer spending. from shakeups to the white house to the senate remaining in session, every day brings new twist and turns. the man who follows it all is kevin cirilli. i guess we have to start with the white house. what happened? >> he barely lasted 10 days. yesterday i spoke with several sky bridge capita

manufacturing making a comeback and stocks at record highs so why is former fed chairman alan greenspan now sounding an alarm? plus, move over all you fancy hedge fund managers, oprah winfrey is a better investor than you we'll tell you about the incredible amount of money she is making on weight watchers. >>> a flashlight company that has been making its money here at home since disco ruled the air waves. it's time to start dancing in the streets because the friday edition of ""power lunch"" is here right now ♪ ♪ >>> welcome to "power lunch. i'm melissa lee. on the back of the jobs report the dow hit another all-time high at the open the major averages are fairing up a fraction of a percent and holding onto the record highs here dow 22,063 22 points off the record highs the s&p is up by 3 nasdaq up by 7.5 some big names bucking the bullish trends, teva getting crushed down about 10% mylan and perrigo drifting down as well. viacom, sponge bob square pantless, we'll dig into the pineapple under the sea coming up minutes ago, shares of blue apron falling to their lows on the session sayin

former fed chair alan greenspan says there's a bubble, but not in equities. it's in bonds.ers the silent treatment. we begin with a big issue. a solid jobs report in the united states. >> this is a very fine report.

juliette: alan greenspan has said equity bears hunting for access might be better off worrying about bond prices. the former fed chairman warned that this is where the actual bubble is and when it pops it will be bad for everyone. in an interview with bloomberg, greenspan said "the real problem is that when the bond market bubble collapses, long-term interest rates will rise. the u.s. has said it will combat the distortions to the world economy created by the chinese economic system. in a report to congress the u.s. trade representative's said its goal is to defend the government's ability to impose utes on china for dumping goods prices orially low unfairly subsidizing chinese firms. the report comes days after tense trade talks in washington. the trump administration has sanctioned venezuela's president nicolas majuro accusing him of undermining democracy in the south american country. the treasury move, department acted after a vote sunday that was a step toward rewriting his country's constitution. the designation freezes any of majerus assets that are subject to u.s. jurisdictio

also on the ground, wearing glasses, is alan greenspan. he was fresh from the inner circles of ayn rand. and he was the chair of the ford council of economic advisers. henry kissinger is between them. he didn't do much when it comes to the fiscal crisis, but he was an important person. also was donald rumsfeld was at that ford's chief of staff. point, mayor beam, working with the governor of new york state , was to go and seek additional id from washington, d.c. in recent years, the federal government had provided financial assistance for certain corporations such as the defense contractor, lockheed, when they were facing problems. perhaps they reckoned it would work for new york as well. but beam and kerry did not find a friendly audience. donald rumsfeld was not induced, he said it would be a disaster. first, new york would delay cleaning up their mess, and second for the president -- theedent it would set president wrote in my view the request is outrageous. alan greenspan said their wares no cuts for personal responsibility. must do ri

a former fed chief, alan greenspan, was on squawk earlier today. and over the last couple of days, he talked about a bond bubble i want to get your reaction to what he said this morning. the current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there's only one direction in which they can go. and when they start, it will be rather rapid what happens if that happens to the bond market. >> firstly, we have to look at what that catalyst will be people have been petting against bonds for the last five years, thinking we were in a bond bubble and that keeps getting more and more expensive by traditional metrics. >> i think we have to look at bonds relative to economic growth, relative to a lower potential gdp growth going forward, as well as relative to where inflation is and yes, the hourly earnings ticked up, we're at 2.5%, but we're not going anywhere fast in terms of other inflation or wage growth and i think that means that this low bond environment can be sustained -- >> you're suggesting -- you're talking yields, obviously. >> yeah, yield >> but

printed this is a representation based on my big data dive of the mind of alan greenspan i don't know if you can really see this but it's something that i whipped up and stacey it does relate to our first story as i understand it looks like some stag sites or what do they call this things that hang from those. i think the ones that come up from the cave floor the stigmata well that's the blood that came out of jesus during the crucifixion i'm not sure the hardening of his mind did the single minded well greenspan is back and he still speaking fed speak and a little bit less overt.

stock bubble investors need to worry about it's a bond bubble former federal reserve chairman alan greenspan recently said this in a bloomberg interview by any measure real long term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable when they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast we are experiencing a bubble not in stock prices involving prices here to talk about what that could mean is marshall our back research associate with levy economics institute marshall first of all i want to just break it down real quick what is a bond bubble. first of all thanks for having me on. well you know a bomb bubble is like any kind of financial asset bubble it's viewed as a situation in which prices are will above sustainable levels or well beyond historic mean levels and the. prediction is that if you have a bubble. and that there is some economic fallout from the after effects of that so what is your take i mean is greenspan right here are we racing toward this impending bond market bubble burst. well i thought it very interesting that he's made this comment because of course when

after alan greenspan, that was ben bernanke is idea to lower attention to the fed.ause the economy evolves over time. if you go back to the track record and the best predictor is how people did in the past, you can do no better than janet yellen. as we get ready for the jobs numbers, you bring another factor into this which is the employment diffusion index. explain to us why you think this is important. >> i'm trying to make payroll friday a little less monday. mundane. in -- the unemployment rate is probably moving lower. the employment diffusion index of jobs the breadth creation in the economy and this is an important cyclical indicator. this is across the eight year mark of the cycle and that's leading a lot of folks to say the next recession cannot be too far off. cycles against measuring using the calendar and instead opening the horse's and looking at economic fundamentals whether it's low inflation, a lack of wage pressure, low interest rates. even the composition of growth tells us we are still in the early to middle stages of the cycle. the other way of l

the former fed chairman alan greenspan says he will worry about a stock market bubble, the actual bubblemarkets. more on his warnings this hour. under armour a-shares getting stopped in trading today after causing its annual sales forecast amid sluggish north america results. how well the ceo falls investor concerns. plus, u.s. carmakers under pressure after general motors, fit chrysler, and ford see steeper sales declines than analysts estimated. we take a deeper look at the auto market slump. usst, julie hyman is with halfway into the trading day and we are seeing some green on the screen. julie: enough green on the screen to push the dow to another record here, even if

we recently had alan greenspan talking about the inflation gas, having a look around the world, the only economy that fits that description is in the u.k. where growth is moving meaningfully seen and inflation is above targets. that's bad for pretty much all assets. that's the sterling that we think will be bad for guilt as well but that for credit. we've seen -- despite bank of england being buying, corporate debt has underperformed european credit. mark: the bank of england did this talk a few weeks ago that they've raised rates. that ain't going to happen. is that what you are saying? >> nothing's going to happen tomorrow. mark: or in the near future. >> there is a big mess coming up for the united kingdom, which is more about politics than it is about the bank of england will have implications for the bank. then we have the budget. what comes out of that weaker or stronger, one of the key challenges we're seeing at the moment is does the u.k. government have the political authority, does she have the political authority to make a compromise if necessary to avoid a cliff edge. mark: e

former fed chair alan greenspan says there's a bubble, but not in equities. it's in bonds.investors flying. -- flying blind. the auto company gives bond traders the silent treatment. we begin with a big issue. a solid jobs report the united -- in the united

former fed chair alan greenspan says there's a bubble, but not in equities. it's in bonds.s investors flying. the auto company gives bond traders the silent treatment. we begin with a big issue. a solid job report the united

alan greenspan was talking about markets which are equally if not more frothy than the equity marketsscary. as warren buffett also likes to say market timing is kind of for full's. we are not very good at it. we just try to be in safe places with safe pairs of hands. investors concerned about a pricing market. as warren buffett also likes to in an interview with erik of schatzker, he said it's time to gradually move towards the exits. he is bracing for more market turbulence. joining us now for more insight is peggy collins. to's start with what he had say about political risk. this is something eric asked him about. one quote was, i don't see the big drop unless there is something out of left field. i think you're supposed to be gradualist italy moving towards the exits. he doesn't see tax cuts coming. he doesn't see the big infrastructure buildout a lot of people were hoping for when trump won. he also doesn't see it taking down the market. he said investor sentiment turning or frustration growing on the fact that we haven't seen a lot get done soin an intervied create a little bit

alan greenspan the other day was talking about the credit markets. they don't get as much attention, but they are equally if not more frothy than the equity markets, and that's scary. -- as warren buffett likes to say, market timing is for fools. we don't really try to do it. we just try to be in a safe place. david: let me ask you about the jobs report. we got the numbers friday. they were good. has anything changed markedly to you? the economy is basically doing the same thing it has been doing for the last several years. growing at 2%, plus or minus. we are roughly a month zone, adding 200,000 jobs a month. under trump, the job growth has been slightly slower under bash than it was under obama, looking at the average, -- slightly slower than it was under obama, looking at the average. but the economy has essentially been doing what it's been doing for several years. david: looking at participation among those who have a high school degree and those who have associatese or an degree. in blue are those who have a high school degree. you see an uptic

. >> good morning, dom and seema dom, i think you saw the interview we had last week with alan greenspanformer chairman of the fed. he said there's a bubble answer that rates have only way to go and that's up. this morning we have mark grant. he takes issue with that he thinks that the chairman isn't actually correct on that he thinks that rates will come down >>> plus, we've got other big guests talking about the market. you may have seen that "wall street journal" article talking about decline in the president-elect trump presidency we have the head of the ftc here taking issue with major fines that came last year in the quake of libor rigging and a lot of different things that happened with that. we'll talk to him. >>> also, we've got jamie dimon who is the head of york capital management now, this has been called the most boring market in decades. you've only see two days in the entire year where the s&p 500 has lost more than 1%. jamie dimon says this is a market that you can't figure out with machines that you need humans to be doing that which brings us to our next guest. we have

former fed chair alan greenspan says there's a bubble, but not in equities. it's in bonds.s flying blind. the auto company gives bond traders the silent treatment. we begin with a big issue. a solid jobs report in the united states. >> this is a very fine report.

. >> former fed chair alan greenspan pointing the finger at the bond market.eal long-term interest rates are much too low when the bond market collapses and long-term interest rates will rise. moving to stagnation not seen since the 1970's. ,., who joins us now from boston. joe: thank you for joining us. the warnings of the bond bull market, we have heard this for a while. has anything fundamentally changed for the chu gentry of the market? >> thank you for having me on. people have talked about a bond bubble, a loaded term. it is central banks. hawkisheeing more rhetoric for the central bank. things other than typical growth inflation. >> are real interest rates being suppressed in a world of less central bank activity? point seeing a different than what we're seeing now? >> real rates are low only because of central bank inflation? no. low volatility of growth but it has been the goal of central banks with an extraordinary monitor policy to lower real and a goal to keep them down and back away. >> so many people are looking for inflation to pick up. are you

. >> oh, you certainly could let's remember a couple of things regarding the bond market, alan greenspan said we're in a massive bubble the market shrugged that off and rallied further in bonds kind of like irrational exuberance from many years ago but i think if you look around the globe and you'll see it hold and that's what has allowed most of the world to move up. i adpree with your panel as they said earlier, it's a bit of an anomaly to see things like the threat from north korea, et cetera, and stocks rallying, particularly the korean market forget about the american market so we're in relatively good shape. we look good against earnings. i just want to point out that it's not an unallowed victory. i've been doing this for well over half a century. the way you survive and to sometimes thrive for that long is the first thing you look at when you walk into a room is the exit sign. you better know how to get out when you get into something. so if i sound a little cautious, that's the way i'm going to be over the years >> that's all right. nobody we'd rather speak to on a day like this

only at td ameritrade. >>> welcome back looking for something better than bonds after alan greenspaneld have been b buying up the rights to future earnings on songss the value has ballooned with streaming services seeing increases in paid subscriptions. joiping us to discuss why he's a buyer is david goldberg and co president of sony publishing. welcome to you both. it's great to have you with us david, i love this story and i was trying to listen to elmo's song on youtube. is that what you bought the rights to? >> yes, it is. >> why do you think this is so value bable and what kind of return are you looking for >> over the past few year, i've had a 20% annual return based on the price i paid and based on the asset, how consistent it is. i'm looking for it to stay around that. >> how much did you pay? >> $580,000. >> $580,000. and are you looking mostly to make that up by selling it at a higher price or are you going to get payments from people listening to the song. >> i'm in it to collect payments over the years >> huch do you think you're going to get a year for people listening t

if you go back to the changeovers, let's go to volker to alan greenspan, back to 1987. the policy that was in place was actually reinforced by greenspan. greenspan leaves in 2006, bernanke takes over. it's not like there's a shift in policy it was steady eddie smooth going i don't think whether it's gary cone or anybody else that replaces janet yellen, assuming she doesn't serve another term, i don't believe in the rhetoric that the whole institution is going to be changing from a policy standpoint. you know, obviously from a regulatory standpoint there are already changes underway from a policy standpoint, i don't think anybody will be changing i think for today what is important is how the markets are positioned futures are priced 40% of the way for the fed to raise rates by the end of the year the fed collectively has been seeing otherwise if janet yellen wants to nudge the markets towards the view that the fed is not being swayed and that they still want to raise rates again, this will be the opportunity to do it >> if she does start to nudge the market in that dire

former fed chair alan greenspan says there's a bubble, but not in equities. it's in bonds.investors flying blind. the auto company gives bond traders the silent treatment. we begin with a big issue. a solid jobs report in the united states.

when alan greenspan became chairman of the fed back in 1987, he was outside the fed, moved straight into the job. codo it. he is one of the lead people. some people argue he might prefer that job because he has more independence in the job as fed chairman than the right-hand person to the president. david: it's a very powerful job. carol, some people say at times, could be more powerful than a president. let's talk about taxes because so many people are waiting with bated breath for tax reform, some kind of tax reform. the president is going out barnstorming for tax reform next week. i think he begins in somewhere in the midwest, i believe producers, minneapolis? at any rate, going to be in the midwest, missouri. okay. do you think that he will do for tax reform what he did not do for health care? and that we'll see it in 2017? >> i certainly hope so, david. i know that you and i have both said many times we think this should have been a top priority instead of going down the health care route but i think this is really more within the tool kit of not just president trump but people in h

said there was a similar backdrop for alan greenspan back in 1999., she to to decide how much weight give each issue as she tries to keep the economic expansion back on track. jonathan, when you look at janet yellen and mario draghi, are we expecting too much from jackson hole? i know it is important and draghi gave a big speech in 2014, but we don't know where we are yet, do we? >> i think we know where we are heading. we are heading towards the federal reserve reducing their balance sheet and ecb tapering purchases. the question is, how much they can hint to that in what they are saying in the next couple days. janet yellen, having just had president trump saying he is prepared to take the u.s. to a ceiling to the wire makes it difficult for the next fomc meeting. that makes it hard for me. but overall, i think you will hear from mario draghi. you will want to say something that stops the euro goigng up, that hints at the tapering, but will highlight this big interest rate differential. you still have big interest rates in europe and that will cont

the fed whether it is janet or alan greenspan or paul volcker whenever good and have never been good at saying maybe we did not do this quite right. maybe we need to change course. they're not going to stand up and say maybe we got it wrong and we have to do something different. i think they should more often be willing to do that. that is not the nature of the beast. be so that's the fed should more willing to say we need to reconsider some things and the things she talked about like in , he talked about the same things janet mentioned tweaking regulatory reform and that is as close as you will get without them being forced to do something different by congress it will be an interesting dance over the next several isths about how far congress willing to go on making changes in dodd-frank versus what the fed is willing to accept and how much they will have to be forced into much they will do on their own. that is going to be a dance we will see play out over a while. we may have a new governor coming in in randy quarles. of al have some what different perspective. it will play out in

we talk about the former president of the federal reserve, alan greenspan.ack in 1999, he was facing the same series of issues. i wonder where the debate is. down.al consumption is the risk is just greenspan went into a major hike mode. i am not saying that is where we go but our is the fed should stick to plan and keep raising rates. do you buy that argument? ben: i do buy that they should keep raising rates. market has it about right that we are looking at a single rate hike over the course of the next 12 months. the balance sheets will be reinvesting coupons. i don't think the balance of the fed needs to see the white of the eyes of inflation and it is not there. really write compelling reasons that we think innovation to come to the u.s. ex line i don't think there is going to be a gain. anna: talking about whether the ecb is concerned about the strength of the euro. we got a story talking about other central banks that could express concern. they are not all going but to some central bankers can's -- anchors could express concern. it here concerns about

manus: we have written a number the economy parties like it is 1999 channeling alan greenspan who annihilated every fund portfolio at the time. there were a sequence of rate hikes that were unexpected and this is the risk. the economy looks like it did in 1999, an implement falling, core inflation falling. whether you attend corner and whether yellen is more reoccupied about asset values which were somewhat rich when she was here in london at the british academy. that is the risk for markets, isn't it? mark: definitely it is a risk and the market is wary but it is -- no one expects yellen will give any strong signals about policy and no one thinks there is a major reaction but there is the message,gives for the purpose of financial stability is important to looking aunt the immediate inflation readings. that is seen as a hawkish message. i do not think the analogy was 1999 is perfect. there is an expectation that would feed through to headline readings and that is what we got. a long inflation for time and with the way commodities are trading at does not look like we are set to get any sudden

but was alan greenspan that collaborative? there were no opposing votes when he was chairman. bring that up, because my colleague, a wonderful federal reserve journalist, brought that very issue up herself. it is not like greenspan was mr. consensus. but i just want to point out that the chairmanship -- you are really the first among equals. be the most might prominent, but you definitely -- in the past year we have seen consensus throughout. consensus is important. joe: you never hear anything bad about gary. there is so much bad stuff said in the press and the leaks and everyone backstabbing each other. crew doese breitbart not like gary cohn, but for the most part you don't see that stuff about him. that ifould say if there is one moment gary would like to have back, it is not a moment like scaramucci where he was caught cursing loudly in front of a journalist. i think that moment would be when he was one of the two people along with steven mnuchin, another goldman sachs executive, who is going to unveil this big tex plan. it felt like a monumental moment. health care is di

. >>> alan greenspan joining us friday and sounding the alarm.ut mark gntra said greenspan has it all wrong he'll be here to explain in just a moment ♪ >>> welcome back, you're watching "squawk box." live in the nasdaq market site in times square. >>> good morning, welcome back to "squawk box." take a quick look at u.s. equity futures at this hour on this tuesday morning. dow jones opens up 5.5 points higher s&p up 2 points, nasdaq up by 1.5 points >>> shares of twilio up big. reporting revenue of $95.9 million. that's up 45% over the year. the revenue beat comes despite twilio losing business from one of its biggest clients uber this year twilio offset that loss with a growing number of other users. >>> last week, former fed chair alan greenspan warned about the risk of a long-term bubble >> long-term interest rates, government bond interest rates have never been as low as they are today. and interest rates have no long-term trend. now, we look back to ancient times and when we could get interest rates that looks very much like what we have toda

because we no longer had that personality around alan greenspan and yellen and bernenke want to use officialenues to announce big changes so they tend to treat the jackson hole speech as more just one of many speeches over the course of the year rather than as an opportunity to kind of make a official fed statement so i don't -- my expectations going into this meeting were pretty low and i think what she said today was exactly what i expected. >> paul all of this being said, you mentioned maybe a patient fed is in the baseline of what investors expect but what about september, not just about the balance sheet but also just all the political stuff that's going to happen, do you think the market is capped here going into september? or can it start to lift after this little backdrop the past couple of weeks? >> yeah, the market is pretty complacent right now we do think there's room for valuations to compress a little bit into the end of the year some fed uncertainty as ethan mentioned will be part of it how we manage the debt ceiling going forward here sals going to be very tricky and is liabl

neil: you know, bob, alan greenspan in an interview, i think with bloomberg, talk about a bubble in bondss, they're unnaturally are low, severely so. and that's his big worry. is it yours? >> yeah. of course, he's a federal reserve chairman, that should be his big worry. he was federal reserve chairman. and i think there is some issue there. but i think there is still -- let's look at stocks. between 1950 and 1982, stocks went nowhere. that's 30 years of a period of enormous growth and enormous infrastructure technology change. you collected dividends, but that was basically it. but between 1982 and today we're up about 1,000%. again, i don't know if heather's right -- [laughter] boy, we're going to blow or something's going to go wrong here, but i've got to ask heather, why this massive increase in valuation during a period when economic growth hasn't been -- >> well. neil: or you could average it out for all of those decades. >> the economic growth has been slow, but we just got a gdp print of 2.6% which is somewhat helping. the fundamentals of the market, i think, have something to do