this is a classic photo of the tennis player alan greenspan working his back.ss he had a terrible back. jonathan: a difficult moment for this white house. about 15 minutes ago, it's about the optics. tom: it's about the optics, yes, but much more. it's this huge, once-in-a-lifetime crisis we have had three times in 15 years, the great financial crash. we have the pandemic and that we've got a war in ukraine linked into the china lockdown. jonathan: and leadership all over the place. we've seen it from company to company and industry to industry where they are struggling to judge where they need to be down the road for the demand that will exist. tom: someone very good at this will be the secretary of treasury, janet yellen. she is an expert on modeling out the language of uncertainty to our president. jonathan: futures are down about 17 on the s&p 500. tom: dow futures are down 134. jonathan: i bet you had a good time last week. did you ask for the bank of america year and forecast? does that exist? lisa: he did name check you every time he talked about the dow

alan greenspan, when the fed did that 75 basis point rate hike, it had done to 50 basis point hikes in august and july, and in september, it had to pause. after the election, that is when they did the 75 basis point hike. it's the only other time they did it. and by the middle of july, they had to start cutting rates. it seems that this is still a potentially likely thing. and bottom line, just how aggressive is the fed going to be? that could be what ends up being the market moving at the end of the meeting. haidi: given the twists and turns of the overnight session, we are setting up for quite a bit of volatility. andreea: we certainly are. some analysts are coming out and saying the market selloff is overdone. perhaps it has gone too far. and perhaps they are right. jp morgan seeing a rebound maybe on the horizon. expect global growth to rebound in the second half. and sentiment indicates the labels last seen during the peak lockdown of the pandemic in 2020. and technical indicators, we could have the fear that we are seeing from investors in the market that may have gone too far. t

and so it used to be that there was some mystery or burlesque to this back in the day of alan greenspan. people would look at size of his brief case and try to figure out what was going to happen. the last time we approximate mated a blind-siding was 1984. the bond market really took a hit. some wall street firms failed that year we don't have an constitutional memory of what it was like -- institutional memory for what it was like for the federal reserve to have a hike that hurts everybody. host: a call for you. an independent from texas. caller: good morning. first-time caller. my question is, yesterday president biden announced that we were in a transition period and that the high fuel prices are a result of that and when we come out on the other end, hopefully we will be less dependent on fossil fuels. so it says to me that it's not the greedy companies. i'd like your comments on my question. thank you. guest: this economy is still energy-intensive. not as energy-intensive as it was in 2008 when we saw oil go above $140 a barrel. not as energy-intensive as it was during the iran an

tom: from the days of alan greenspan, i can remember senator graham of texas going after alan greenspan. he wishes he did. i'm not going to talk about this, i am not going to talk about that and nowadays led by build ugly and mr. coral, everybody's talking. jonathan: i enjoy it because everybody is saying what they think. not far from peak fed fear, then later -- ben laidler, what makes you think that? ben: we are close to peak inflation. economic condition is already weakening. i'm not sure if we are entirely there yet. i do think markets -- and we are subject to a loosening. they have been driving down. lisa: do you think stocks have flown down an of to get inflation back to a reasonable point for the fed? ben: we are on our way. mortgage rates are over 5%. we have real yields for the first time in years. the economy is slowing, not just in the u.s. but what is going on in europe the whole world is clearly slowing. you put that together along with these expectations, it is unprecedented. a double-barreled tightening on the balance sheet and the interest rate. i think enough has been d

let's see, alan greenspan and no one else, right?ow in just completely media obsessed world these guys just can't shut up. in fact i think they are chosen to be people who are obsessed with microphones and cameras and the problem right now with inflation running so high they feel every time they get in front of a microphone and a camera they have to talk about inflation, inflation, inflation. is that making inflation going away, or making you so higher away of it you say, oh, my god, inflation is out of control, i need to go to the grocery store to buy 100-pounds of hamburger. if they do that they make inflation. the fed has to shut up. charles: no idea where the neutral rate is, this in fact the free markets are the only mechanism to determine that yet we heard earlier today messer saying that, you know they are going above the neutral rate. how much of a role should the markets play in all of this versus the fed and certainly the federal government? >> well, we did just fine without the fed before 1913. in fact if you look at the h

i'd love to get back to that point about alan green the alan greenspan era because it's an important point in your book. but before we do, i'd like to just finish talking about bond purchases because that's also an important point in your book. i wonder how you sort of square this argument that you're making which is that fed bond purchases spur inflation with the reality that we had fed. bond purchases also been very large quantities over the sort of post-financial crisis period and we didn't see a lot of inflation. in fact, we saw very low inf over that period and so i wonder i wonder how those how those things work together. a very good a very pertinent question because what happened after 2008 was a two things one is the federal reserve while they're creating this money in effect froze the money, you know, the mention they the fed buys the bonds they credit the bank account that the dealer has at the federal reserve and what they did was something they'd never done before they started to pay interest on those reserve. they'd never done that before at the same time. they were putt

that disurption, plus inflation, which is something which, you know — i remember going to hear alan greenspanwhich is something that had been banished. you know, a method had been found where the economy was never too hot, never too cold and that was just the reality. that is now over. i will do one sentence only, i promise you. no, we have time. trade, a bit closer to home? crosstalk. i know it's not and ian diagrees. brexit is another factor that the british economy — it was going to be a seismic shift. everybody acknowledges that it was good to be a big, bit shift. and that is another factor. we have opted not to maintain trade with people closer at home in the same way. so — and i think that is another factor that you might disagree with the shortages in the labour market. and to be fair, some brexiteers were quite candid about this at the time, saying, "look, there would be changes and it "will be a period of transition. "we think there is a sunnier land ahead, but we don't know "how we can chart the next bit." but this is an added complication, i think, what's happening everywhere else,

catcher— going to hear alan greenspan catcher nearly 20 years ago, and — catcher nearly 20 years ago or cold and that was just the reality. that is now — that was just the reality. that is now over. i that was just the reality. that is now over-— is now over. i will do one sentence _ is now over. i will do one sentence only. _ is now over. i will do one sentence only. no, - is now over. i will do one sentence only. no, we i is now over. i will do one i sentence only. no, we have time. brexit _ sentence only. no, we have time. brexit is _ sentence only. no, we have time. brexit is another - sentence only. no, we have. time. brexit is another factor for the british _ time. brexit is another factor for the british economy. - time. brexit is another factor for the british economy. it i time. brexit is another factor i for the british economy. it was good to be a seismic shift. everybody acknowledges that it was good to be a big shift. that is another factor. we have opted not to maintain trade with people closer to home in the same way. so i think that is another factor that you might di

we are certainly going into with alan greenspan used to call a tough patch for a lot of economies attime. we know that the pressure on consumers in the united states in europe and asia. we see that happening and we see the shock out of china documented by the numbers overnight as an awesome decline in industrial production and consumer spending. it's not over yet. at the same time, we have energy prices which are behind some of the recession issues we have central banks around the world hiking interest rates which is the most important single indicator of a recession. we are in for a rough patch. tom: you have an important china letter3 have you link china data in our conventional analysis with the absolutely original government in beijing? will they blank or will they be forced to blink due to the gdp? >> that's a question we have no historical residence to turn back on. zero tolerance for covid this year is here to stay and that's the policy of the land and they will tough it out. i don't see of -- any sign of them breaking now and i cannot point to any historical experience that s

. >> in 1994, alan greenspan was a lot tougher than anybody thought he would be in that capitulationt come until the end of the year. you had the early year wash on a fed that was more aggressive than anybody thought. you could have made the same case in 2000 or 2018. it becomes extreme. you have extreme pessimism and oversold indicators. what you get is a summertime balance. we are embarking on that bounce back that can recoup some of the losses. then you get the economic reality of what happens when the fed is super aggressive. that means we should have the fall all. from there it's going to depend on monetary policy. lisa: it's just one stock. this is indicative of the economy moving faster than even the ceos understand. how do this? >> you asked the perfect question. sorry tom. here's the situation. two weeks ago neel kashkari said based on the way mortgage rates have gone, we have moved accommodation faster than we gave it in 2020. think about that statement. trillions of dollars. so you add to that the most recent consumer confidence ceo survey. it got hit on a year-over-year b

alan greenspan raised interest rates 300 basis points and we did not have a recession.tead we got a very long and strong expansion. i guess there are two paths we can follow from here. jonathan: payrolls on friday. cpi next week. one of the estimates from morgan stanley. 8.1% down from 8.5%. away from payrolls into cpi, what is the focus for you? michael: it will be the poor rate. we know we will see energy and food price pressures continue, especially with ukraine and russia. is the core rate slowing down? we saw that with the pce numbers. if the core rate is moderating that would give the fed some hope their interest rate increases would have some effect. we also want to look at what housing is doing. that will take a long time to come down. jonathan: awesome work yesterday. great to see you back in the room in the news conference. isn't that good to see, to get them back together again? it is a reunion for economists in washington. tom: we are seeing that in all sorts of things and it does speak to the optimism. the gentleman from st. louis has an optimism of resilie

i go back to what alan greenspan once said, we watch what they say, not what they do. the interesting thing is people are still buying stocks. there is only one category for services, eating and drinking places, and it was pretty strong across the board. guy: what do you make of this idea that we are starting to see it done on leverage come a pushing the idea that consumer credit is picking up and the consumer is struggling, and that is the indicator you want to look for, that is the lead indicator? michael: it is starting to pick up. but how far do they go? we know people still have savings. they have not spent it all done yet, from the pandemic assistance. and household incomes are holding up fairly well. salaries continuing to rise. as long as that is happening, people tend to spend on what they are earning. so they think they're still going to be doing ok, still going to be spending. alix: jen, the sales outlook for walmart is actually a bit that are, same-store sales about 4% revenue gained. does this account at all for the fed having to hike and presumably usher

tom: we showed earlier the famous photograph of alan greenspan laying on the floor because of his bady are doing couch time, and lara rhame is laying on the floor with her bad back. what do you tell them about the when of inflation coming down if they just do a prescribed fed policy. lara: what i would tell them is they need to frontload these rate hikes as much as possible because we know that there's only so much they are going to be able to impact some of the supply chain disruption factors we've had. energy prices, given that there is such a geopolitical component to that. i would tell them to frontload and then take a very data-dependent approach come september, come december. i don't think they are going to be able to raise as much as markets have -- as much as markets have priced in. lisa: why are we seeing spending continued to be so robust, despite some of the sentiment reads that have been negative? lisa: we will get ash lara: we will get -- lara: we will get the consumer confidence data today. you're seeing households that are still supported by a healthy job market. that s

i'm seeing people compare this to 1994, 1995 when alan greenspan increased three to 6% through rate hikesse point triple rate hike, and a double rate hike. that would wreck the whole stock market. but it barely dinged us. it's still in my hedge fund. that was because we processed those rate hikes quickly. it produced a pews rally. in other words, high-quality stocks did just fine. but profitable ones that make real things and do stuff and return capital did well. i think we should be faced with a very similar process this time around. but i was upset, because it still being too slow. it was really ill advised, the possibility of a 75 base point rate hike on the day. i see that is a mistake. i think we need 100. because we've got to get this over with. and heaven knows, i am the biggest fan on wall street. to me, it's just much better to get it over with this fast as possible. the economy is just so strong, that we actually may need a 1994 style shock to contain inflation. in the meantime, we wait for the fed to finish hitting the brakes, normally highflying stocks with no earnings can do

i want to go alan greenspan on you. chairman greenspan really cared about confidence.eorge at deutsche bank points out that business confidence and consumer confidence have never been farther apart. how do you believe that dynamic will work? will business confidence go gloomy as consumer confidence does? randall: i think that's right. just put all the issues with the fed aside, raising rates quite significantly. there are so many shocks out there whether on the supply side, sanctions, war, continuing uncertainty about that. naturally the economy would be slowing down. plus, the fed has to be ruse -- moving rates to bring in inflation. that is a pretty tough one-two punch. jonathan: how should we interpret the payrolls this morning? trying to understand what will matter in this ultimately to the fed rate path. for the summer, they seem to have taken everything off the table, 50, 50, and in august reassess. nadia: i don't think -- randall: i don't think the jobs report will be enough to move them off of that. the labor market is strong but i think it will start to weaken

growth and higher inflation in 1993 there was a meeting just like today between bill clinton and alan greenspan, and they didn't want to explicitly say it, but out of that meeting came the idea that if you raise taxes, the fed wouldn't have to raise as much interest rates we raised taxes. we got slower growth, but we still had the inflation, but as you know, the fed had to aggressively raise interest rates in 1994. we need to be very careful on the tax increase side. the belief that that has reduced inflation not bearing itself out in history and could lead to a slower economy and raise that risk that's currently out there. >> what's that all mean to you in terms of both the possible political fallout, but even more so for investors >> yeah, i think we're in a position, we're at the beginning of a long stage to stamp out inflation. we haven't gone through this in 40 years the money growth supply is starting to decline. that is something very good. that's telling us that inflation is going to start coming down. but we got a long window before we actually start getting it out of the system. that

politics, the changes regarding race and class and sexuality and the yin and yang of oprah and alan greenspan. so the evenings [inaudible] will include audience q&a so. please use the q&a button at the bottom of the screen if you'd like to ask him a question. as well is someone who's acting question you would also like to know the answer principle of that particular question by clicking the thumbs up button. lastly, support jack and paul by purchasing a copy of this book to this and a link to the [inaudible] subject graciously chalk by the storm we had currently have over 100 actual signed copies you -- can see right here, we've got the mother--'s orders while supplies last. all right, thanks so much, chuck, for joining us, and we're excited to have you. >> this is the beginning? okay! well, you know, this is normally the part in the event where i would feel like, boy, it's great to be here! but you know it's not really great to hear because i'm not there. i am literally here, like out behind my house. you know, this book could have come out last fall probably. you could probably have pushed

he discusses the ying and yang of oprah and alan greenspan. there is a q&a. please use the queue and a bottom button at the bottom of the screen if you would like to ask a question. please upload your question by clicking the thumbs up button. lastly, support chuck by purging purchasing a copy of his book from us. chalk graciously stopped by the store. we currently have over 100 side copies. they are right here. or do yours while supplies last. all right, thanks so much for joining us. we are excited to have you. >> is this the beginning? okay. you know, this is normally the part in the event where i would say, boy, it is great to be here. it is really not great to be here. i am not there. i am literally here. i am out behind my house. this book could have come out last fall. we probably could have pushed it and have it come out in the fall. we thought, well, if we wait to february, everything will be over for the pandemic. we will all be back to life. it sure seemed that way when this decision was made. as you can see, this is not powell's bookstore behind m

>> mel, it's got to be that the fed says we're almost done a kind of alan greenspan in 1994 where we've got one more hike in front of us when the economy almost got into recession. >> wait a second, that sounds like it's not for a long time, tony. >> i know, mel people are used to me being so bullish but it's been a little while. the reason is listen to what neal kashkari said based on rates going from 3.5% to 5.25, we are withdrawing accommodation faster than we did. do you sell it down 30 as the team talked about, karen appropriately talked about jpmorgan is down 33% is that the time to sell it? so i think at this point you want to really see that tone change in the fed before you, quote unquote, have to do something. and if you remember, we ended the last show with my dad coming downstairs and saying to my brother and i don't just sit there, do something. you don't have to get in on the next downtick thinking its the low. >> tony, thanks for being on you said until the fed stops what do you think would make them stop? is it an actual rate is it inflation coming in? is it the economy

alan greenspan added on 25 basis points.e say no, that's why it's not going to happen at this meeting. if you want to click the questions, inflation. the peak of rate hikes by the end of the year. what is the neutral rate target? 2.5%? 2.8%, even 3%? a lot of people are worried because you will have to do so much, so many top economists. the fed is not going to be able to achieve this just for those reasons. in terms of the 75 basis point rate hike, he will be asked. if he says something like we will see if it's needed or if inflation doesn't peak, but if he talks about methodical moves, most people will take that as a signal he will not rule it out but is not looking forward to doing that unless it's needed and we will have to wait and see. haidi: kathleen hays with the preview of the big fed decision. the future fund shares his outlook in an interview with bloomberg at the milken institute global conference. >> yes, we have to look at the world. what will it mean? economies are strong in general? for us, the base case scen

you go back in history you got to go back to the 1994 period, where alan greenspan did orchestrate a soft landing with a 300 basis point rise in rates and ask yourself a question, are we in a comparable period in 1994 and the answer is no we're not. the effect of the rate hikes this time are actually going to be greater than they were in 1994 because offsetting the move at the front end in 1994 was a big decline in long term interest rates. not only that, we came off of a very very deep recession and we had a jobless recovery, which meant that there was still pent-up demand by the time the fed was raising rates. this time there through is no pent-up demand so the effect is a much more dramatic slow down in the economy than the fed has been anticipating and i think they are looking at what's happened in terms of forward rates and saying wait a second maybe we're getting a little too farfetched here maybe we pushed things too far let's take a pause and see. i don't think they've eliminated 75 basis points at all, i think they have just taken off the table for the next two meetings. liz

alan greenspan brings an incredible the power of a dictator on this drop in a secret ingredient to anymes that is profitable quarter. number three part series in the background is also the cover romania presents part of the rescue story. sharon stone nuclearizes over a hundred and seventy three obamagate and never ending one for the unwelcome mona 10% new york and most likely the number one on the wall today. so your home is expensive and stressful. so we set out to create a better home experience with a network of the most successful real estate in america will sell your home for as little as a two percent commission. the icing on the cake with the ideal agent is that we see twelve thousand dollars in commissions. we would definitely use ideal and it got the whole process was so positive for us . excellent, excellent service getting right to the point hiring ideal agent. i wish we would have done that sooner and we would have saved six months of time and mortgage payments that would have probably never happened. we would have just gone with him first. they were so stress free the whol

alan greenspan was less than what jay powell is facing. a point quarter per quarter on core inflation. this is considerably larger. it will be very hard for for the fed to avoid a recession. charles: again ask but the wild card that is quantitative tightening. they dealt with it briefly for a period but this is all brand new stuff. this is the tool, new inventive tool out of the tool box. how do you model for want tate tiff tightening? i think it is starting out a lot less than a lot of folks anticipated. >> okay, don't think less of me, charles, 15, 20 years ago i wrote a couple papers with then governor ben bernanke how to do unconventional policy and there was no section in those papers on exit strategy. that is what the fed is dealing with now. what's the big irony about quantitative easing, quantitative tightening? you can't quantify it. you can't put it to the basis point like when you change an interest rate. they're basically going in the dark and the idea is shrink your balance sheet until you get reserves in the banking system, a

the politics the changes regarding race and class and sexuality and then yin and yang oprah and alan greenspan. so this evening's event will include an audience q&a. so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you'd like to ask a question as well if someone has typed a question, you're all select to know the answer to please upvote that particular question by clicking the thumbs up button. lastly support chuck and pals by purchasing a copy of his book from us a link to buy the 90s will be shared in the chat a couple of times tonight since chuck price graciously stopped by the store. we currently have over a hundred actual signed copies. see right here. i'm right there. so order yours while supplies last. all right. thanks so much chuck for joining us and we're excited to have you. this is the beginning. okay. well, i you know, this is normally the part in the in the event where i would boy i would say like boy, you know, it's it's great to be here. um, but you know, it's really not great to be here because i'm not there. i am literally here like out behind my house, you know.

competence, and you know, i like powell, i think he's a good guy, but he's not a paul volcker, not an alan greenspantimes ever, ashley, and it needs competence, much more than anything else, leadership and i'm afraid this fed just doesn't have it. ashley: well i think you should go to d.c. and put him straight, art laffer, great stuff as always. >> i be glad to. ashley: great to see you and my best to nashville, what a great city. thank you. >> we're keeping it warm for you, ashley. we welcome you back anytime you want to come. ashley: that's very tempting. art, thank you very much. appreciate it. a leaked video shows vice president at apple discouraging workers from unionizing. jackie what did the vp say? >> her name is diedre o'brien and she's the vp of people and retail, ash. she said i worry about what it would mean to put another organization in the middle of our relationship, an organization that does not have a deep understanding of apple, or our business. most importantly, one that i do not believe shares our commitment to you. this is coming as there is more of a push to unionize at certain

when alan greenspan was doing that in 1994, he wasn't doing it at every meeting.t, there's a risk that you overdo it. it's hard to know when to start raising rates, the fed saw that last year, and it's hard to know when to stop. so when you go this fast and you want to see clear and and convincing evidence of a lagging indicator, inflation lags the economic data, you raise the risk that you tighten too much. maria: one speculation going into the last cpi number on wednesday was with, oh, you know, maybe inflation is peaking, right? you heard that from a loot of -- a lot of people. saying this could be the worst of it. it really budget. we got the pp if i at 11%, are there any indications from your sandpoint that so far the rate hikes have moved the needle on inflation? >> you see the housing market, right? people who were looking to buy a home six months ago when mortgage rates were at 3 percent, now they're at 5.25, 5.5, that changes the monthly payment, what you're able to afford. maria: that's a good point. >> we won't see that in the data for home sales, and i

and so it used to be that there was some mystery or burlesque to this back in the day of alan greenspan look at size of his brief case and try to figure out what was going to happen. the last time we approximate mated a blind-siding was 1984. the bond market really took a hit. some wall street firms failed that year we don't have an constitutional memory of what it was like -- institutional memory for what it was like for the federal reserve to have a hike that hurts everybody. host: a call for you. an independent from texas. caller: good morning. first-time caller. my question is, yesterday president biden announced that we were in a transition period and that the high fuel prices are a result of that and when we come out on the other end, hopefully we will be less dependent on fossil fuels. so it says to me that it's not the greedy companies. i'd like your comments on my question. thank you. guest: this economy is still energy-intensive. not as energy-intensive as it was in 2008 when we saw oil go above $140 a barrel. not as energy-intensive as it was during the iran an hostage crisis

jonathan lemire, i remember after 2008, everybody was kick kicking alan greenspan. oh, easy money. we had two years of that. how could greenspan do that to us? we continued to do it. while writing the article, well, we have to get out of this by having more easy, free money. higher deficits. higher debt. we have spent the last 20 years with the most reckless, not just monetary policy, but fiscal policy. nobody spent more money, nobody had higher deficits, nobody had higher debt than donald trump and the republicans. or george w. bush and the republicans. they both broke records when they were in power. >> yeah, extraordinary amount of spending from the trump administration. of course, republicans at the time silent about it. then once the democrat comes into the white house, as we see time and again, they start growing deeply concerned. this white house has made efforts to bring down the deficit some, but, obviously, there's a lot at play here. the pandemic, of course, the driving force, and now the war in ukraine, as well. >> yeah. >> sending prices skyrocketing. as far as from th