we are joined by alan higgins. thank you for joining us, happy monday. how do you balance the risks at this moment? what is the biggest concern when it comes to opec and that the markets should be pricing in right now? alan: good morning. opec is more important than it has been more recently because we have this capital discipline them a especially with respect to shale. it truly is like the swing producer again. the biggest risk for the market, we know inflation is correlated to higher oil, and this probably comes more from the saudi side and the idea that oil prices could spike higher. that's probably the biggest risk in the markets. manus is more of an expert in this area than me, but it looks like there is a deal to be done in the end in this area between two pretty friendly states. manus: you are very gracious, mr. higgins. there are much greater minds than i. i want to give you a reference, one of your prime minister's talked about splendid isolation, british history, for an irish man that is hard to understand. but that's what we've got, the uae s