manus: alan higgins is with me.re's three very clear camps, between we're not there yet, start in the autumn, and start now. here we are, my question to you, how fast a taper are you assuming we will get? we're at $120 billion a month at the moment. how fast with a go down? alan: manus, the answer to that is what i think they should do, and what they will do. and most likely, it's going to be very moderate. kashkari's on the dovish side, so interesting for him to say two more strong implement up -- employment reports. financial conditions are very loose, whether you look at your own indicator and real rates as deeply negative. so taking some of the stimulus away while markets are well behaved are essential to me, but we can tell the fed is very cautious, so something like $10 billion or $20 billion coming off very slowly, maybe mortgages, because does the housing market really need any more stimulus? so, that's, personally, i think they should be doing it now while markets are reasonably well behaved. the risk is, t