and have alan krueger.congratulations on the philanthropy of selling the swiss stamp collection. why did you sell your stamp collection? it was to frank. well, i have been selling it for nine years. once you fill in all the spaces, it's time to move on. i have been letting it go for charity. did you sell the stamp with the upside down airplane? never. i would never sell the inverted jenny. you have that reaction to the jobs numbers we were talking to jim about? the market will decide on june. for the last three minutes, the market has decided that jim is out. the fed, has a global central bank. they are fixated on stock prices. they are moving into the extent that the stock market home, i am not sure that june is out. we had that from stan fisher. we are with williams at san francisco. they all seem to get it. they know that some point, they are raising interest rates. movements of profitability and insurance companies. in your most recent economic letter, you said you will see qe4. you are not convinced th

i had a conversation this morning with alan krueger. although the headline number looks weak a first come on you dig into the report, it looks building isjob going on. at aggregatelook hours, they are not as disappointing as the total jobs number. don't see any reason why it should make a delay from what the fed would otherwise be doing. on the other hand, the market seems to think a rate hike is completely off the table. showing implied probability as far as the market is concerned. it is now 6%. why'd you think the market takes this off the table? john: it is a question of how much it has come down just today. the likelihood was pretty low already. in terms of the numbers, it looks a little disappointing, but hours are up. it is consistent with getting off that bad first quarter and not great growth anyway, but at least better than we had in the first quarter. they should start trying to normalize. people want to normalize, they are looking for the opportunity to do that. that does mean raising rates. was: if the probability only 10%

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. >>> coming up, alan krueger and ed lazear debate the true obama jobs records. >>> you're watching "ide. ew friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them. there is only one place where real and amazing live. seaworld. real. amazing ♪ we'll have a house party, we don't need nobody ♪ ♪ turn your tv off, break that boom box out ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box." it is 8:30 on the east coast. here is what's making headlines this morning. supermarket operator kroger hiring 14,000 new permanent employees. it's making a concerted push to find workers, holding open interviews in all of its stores this-coming saturday. >>> a fresh read on the labor market, out later this morning, the labor department will release its so-called jolts report, the monthly measure of job opportunities and labor turnover. it's also the favorite of one of our upcoming guests. that steve will be talking to. ed lazear. >> he loves jolts. >> loves jolts. >>> white wave foods is one of this morning's early stock winners. the packaged food company whic

we will have alan krueger, from princeton university. we will have howard ward, the ceo of gamco.ng with tom and "surveillance" on radio. then we will check in with jason parkman, chair of the white house council of -- tom: willem buiter is with us from citigroup. michelle meyer from bank of america merrill lynch. and carl riccadonna. what are you going to this morning? carl: normally i go beneath the surface. this is not one of those reports. we see the economy in a three-quarter deceleration. things look not so good, and understatement for the first quarter. consumer spending was lousy, growth was lousy. all we need now is an all clear from the labor market that the pace of hiring is holding up. normally i am pushing an angle of look beneath the headline change. this time around, the check engine light is on and we need to know the labor engine is firing. tom: do we assume the unemployment rate comes down? path down, is it a good glide path down, or is it for bad reasons? --l: absolutely is a absolutely it is a good glide path down. if we move below 5%, that will be the economy

. >> that's alan krueger the chair under president obama and some republicansy it should have been fastere brought-based pointing to the record 94 million americans out of the work force. they acknowledge some are baby boom retirees but ed lassier from stanford, cea chairman under george w. bush he points to the age of prime working americans, 25 to 54 years old who are not working. >> you would expect that the demographic effect would actually drive the employment rate up for that group, not down, because when the older guys leave the market there's more demand for the middle-aged guys. simply not back. we're not recovered and we still have a ways to go >> add to that 5.8 million americans working part-time because they can't find full-time work, 2 million above normal and a case despite gains there's more work to be done. guys, that's the argument among say, you know, nationally recognized main street labor economists. you're going to hear more rhetoric more extreme from both campaigns as the election goes on here. >> let's ask you to stick around and hear from larry kudlow, our cnbc co

this arch back to idea that you hear from alan krueger of princeton university.we work within a blended american economy or are there to america's out there right now? havebility distributions 5000-1 underdogs like leicester city have a 50% chance of winning everything thousand 500 years -- everything thousand 500 years. years.y 3500 so listen to traders -- fat tails. leicester city were put together at a cost of 57 million pounds. manchester united paid more for one player. jonathan: what i find fascinating about this is we're talking about implied probability and the chances of something happening. discuss is the implied probability actually determines the probability. at 8%, the fed won't move. tom: implied probability an actual probability goes back to the ex post anti-analysis. everyone agrees that there is over communication. there is maybe now communication, but the foundational point away from the media power game is john williams of san francisco last week to kathleen hays. we are going to wait and see what the data is talk to me june 13. jonathan: we ha