alan ruskin with deutsche bank.absolutely brilliant about how much work the fed needs to do given the economic backdrop. tom: peter orszag, i give great credit. multiple tests that any monetary policy leader has. they glide out to this so-called terminal rate. my distinction is it is about economic growth at the end of the day, and the machine has worked in america. maybe it is a fiscal stimulus, maybe it is not. what is so unique about this fed meeting is how alone america is in relative prosperity. jonathan: one question for a lot of people with this fed meeting is where the hawkish price comes from. we have talked about the taper accelerating. where does the hawkish surprise come from? lisa: bill dudley pointing to the longer-term expectations in terms of whether they will shift. what alan ruskin just said about the bond market not being the smart money because of how distorted it has become because of monetary policy is massive. the implications are massive. jonathan: another fixed income geithner it is the smar

that is what alan ruskin of deutsche bank was talking about earlier this week. the big conversation about rates is about where we end. how far does the fed have to push to even tighten? tom: savino subramanian doing mathematics at berkeley is very aware of the x axis, and brilliantly in her cautious report for bank of america, she looks up the sequence from taper to tighten to tina. what happens to tina? if there is no alternative, how do we get to? savita: i think tina is in peril, and she needs to be careful because here we are in an environment where the dividend yield on the s&p 500 is below where cash yields are likely to be in a year or two. so all of a sudden, cash looks really attractive in an environment where our economists are forecasting eight hikes over the next couple of years. think that is an environment where you want to own free cash flow, but you don't necessarily want to own the entire s&p 500. so i think we are in an environment where it gets tricky. you are seeing volatility. i think the negative real rates environment is really interesting