joining us alan schwartz, guggenheim, former bair stern ceo. it's grat to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> regarding the debt ceiling, there's so much discussion around the timing of a default, but you point out that a downgrade may be even easier to get in the short term. >> i think that's right. i mean, we have to worry about a default primarily because if it -- that secretary yellen is saying we have until june 1st, if you look through what kind of processes are required to actually have this resolved by june 1st, there's a lot that has to happen. you know, though can really think they're going to get something done and procedurally given time gaps of how long it takes to agree on something and then write it up and and then have three days on the floor, we don't have much time we better get this done real quick if june 1st is really the date, number one number two, the second thing you mentioned is in 2011 everybody knows s&p decided to downgrade u.s. treasuries based on the uncertainty that was being created in the process but that was