because alcoa is seen an economicellwether, its performance will be rutinized. suzanne pratt reports, instors are watching for signs life, both in the aluminum instry and the basic materials sector. >> reporter: a hotummer and lots of thirsty people cou be aloca's best hope foa pickup in demand,s soda can makers wod need to stock up on aluminum. but experts y alcoa is unlikely to see acceletion in dema from other buyers of the tal, like carmakers or aircraft builds. that because the economy has yeto show significant signs of recovery. as a result, the's little expectation thaluminum giant's earnings will bu the stock market vertheless, s&p uity strategist alec young ys, when alcoa speaks, invests should listen >> when they give us fward guidance, people areoing to read intthat. there's a lot of intert in what ts recoverys going to look like,nd so there's going to be a lot ofuriosity. >> reporr: others say alcoa alsoears watching because it uld give clues about activit in the bas materials sector, which includ metals, chemicals and forest products. basic material

alcoa, the ogognoicator. i i n'n't ally believe what i'm saying. bottom liline this time i is fferent. alcoa is telling us we need to be defensive in americica, stic toour cononmemer staples and offensive ififotot aressive in chchinwhwhe more cyclicical companies can make monon b becse the chinese e coididce with ththeisusupeor stimulus a a making indeed, yes, atat la a great leapap fwawa while we're at best standing still alas gogoinbabackrd by the day. let's go to o ee hearartld.d. rick inn ohio.. >>>> a ohiootate bueyeyes o-o-h to ouou. >> one of f ee greatestayay wew ever hadndnd featuring the official beer-amid. >>olars stocks are tanking four times t theegegul market. i ought with cap and ttde, all the e eirironnt speak solar ululbe rallying. instead it's s thhahaest hit. why? >> oil stocks weree - -- oil futures werere manipulalad.d. what's thehe caveat? theuys who trade ilil wherevever they arere t the b b o oilrader are sasayi c cmer doesn't kww what he'e' talking about. that will mark the 54th ar that i didn't know whahat wawas talking ab

or how about this little g from alcoa's conferee ll is morning? good news is you all know at its really the large projects, the brazilian projects that will start the operation on time, and then klaus continues -that's his first name, like knom. i kind of like caingim k klaus, i don't know. anyway, he says i will atten e ofal opening of jerudy together with present mulahn in september. that's a big smelting prect. d he says these projects will be gainers in the fure. now, wt dowant? do we want to open smelters in brazil? we want them making alumumn china? no, th want them to open projects with president obama not alumar ibril. insteahe's shutting production here and increasing there because in the bri country you do havthe inalienable right to pollute. i don't like that when it cos to my lus, but i do like it when it cometo my portfolio. cramerica mercenary? no, just worry. alcoa's ceo says, lastly, on the automotive side, have to don tholchinese hat again. stylish for me. we also see the auto production in cna growing, partially driven by the gov

that's for people who are following the alcoa story. dan, on the other hand, economic worries are back. i have talked about this. i've blogged and written about this. i, myself, am postponing the recovery story. the jobs and earnings and income numbers and wage numbers were awful from last thsday in the june jobs report. and i note -- and this is where i want you to go -- we are seeing a downdraft in most of the cyclical stocks. that's the heart of this correction. we are seeing today gold off $14 to $9.10. oil off to 60 bucks, just over $60. over 3%. the crb commodity index off 2%. dr. copper off 2% and really in an amazing statistic, treasury bond rates, the ten-year treasury down all the way now to 3. -- no, 3.29%. a month or five weeks ago, that thing was 4.25%, now it's back to almost 3.25%, i'm regarding that as a lower expectation of the economic growth, dan. how do you see it? how do you play it? because there's enormous cash on the sidelines. >> right. >> maybe it's time to go into corporate bonds. i don't know. we need some ad

>> jeff: susie, alcoa's shares rose 50 cents in after hours trading. the stock was among the nyse most actives. we'll see it as we take a look at our stocks in the news tonight. atonight's street critique guest says the markets are on edge for a reason. paul larson of morningstar, welcome back to "nightly business report". >> thanks for having me again. >> jeff: there's always a lot of questions as we go through the seasons here about how long does this recession last, and when we talk about economic green shoots, are there any real economic green shoots to speak of. >> well, i think you can characterize the economy and the economic indicators as being less bad. things are certainly not as bad as they were back in the first quarter. but there's a big difference between less bad and good. and we are most certainly still in that less bad phase, still going in reverse, still experiencing economic contraction. >> jeff: what do we make of the rally we've seen these last weeks and months? >> well, i think that a lot of the rally that we've experienced was si

soso a nice lift r alcoa today. theppip will buy upup to $140 billion in ans v vsusus the original pgram. ititas named ninin fund manager who will contribute 10 bbilon. those companies includude blblacock, ininveco. on noticeable aenence is pimco which says it withdrew fmm coideration last month on concerernsbobouthe progogra structure. > meanwhile, the leaders ofof the g-8 p parcicipas have agreed to cutasas emissions by 0%. th heads of state haveailed to reach a a agreement with inda and china toharbor e essssio by 2050. also, the headads of atate have agreed t tha it's t e ear to thdraw stimulus measuress omom the economymy as a r rovover ist yetsusure >>>> tnsnstor: firstly, althohoh there are signs o stajz, the economic c criss is f f om of and that's t the unanimous alalys of all the g-8 memberer cocondwe must p into aion ththe rere upon stimulus pls.s. itit'serertaly not the time to loosen our efforts. >> andoioing us fm m th-8-8 etetg now isis claudia penzote. whwhatanane expect today? >> r reptete well, ss,

were expecting somewhat upbeat news from alcoa.the ceo yesterday with some upbeat comments, but won't necessarily lift the market here, and that's not until after the close. let's move over to brian at the nasdaq. >> bertha, as mr. pisani always says, you can still go broke on low volume. we're down 3%-plus in a two-day span. the news of the day, google basically announcing they are getting into the operating system business. we probably won't see it until the second half of 2010, but they're going square after microsoft right now. it's going to be based on the chrome. it's going to go toward the low end of the netbook segment. we'll see what happens there. amgen, great test results on the breast cancer drug, up 15.6%. mixed results for research in motion. it's initiated as a buy, but piper jaffray says june sales at at&t and sprint were weaker. and i also want to point out, the chips are underperforming the market right now. someone who never underperforms is my man rick santelli in chicago. >> you know, the ten-year auctions toda

alcoa is expected to report its third straight loss. although they have rebounded modestly in recent weeks. ceo clause klinefield says he's sooep seeing signs of a recovering or of a bottoming out in some sectors. alcoa stock is down 16% this year. >>> and you can get more news, videos and blogs on today's market-moving news at cnbc.com. >>> still to come on the program, what will set the tone for earnings season? china's president had headed back to beijing from italy. what does this mean? the g-8 meeting continues to be live in italy. and oil prices rise for the second consecutive day. lllll >>> these are the pictures of air force one. it has just landed in rome to deliver tt barack obama to the g-8 meeting which is just outside the capital of italy. of course, we are having coverage of the g-8 over the next thee days. already, of course, the chinese premier have had to fly home. all right. we're just waiting for the president to get off the plane. let's see what's happening with the global equity markets. chloe will wrap things u

. >> alcoa is going to be a crap show when it comes out with its earnings. who is the big buyer of what they're selling right now? aircraft primarily, and who's building a lot of airplanes right now? nobody. for that reason, i think you're going to see -- >> boeing is trying. it's just not the way they hoped. >> they're trying. they can't get the thing off the ground. i say you wait two weeks from now because that's when the more telling earnings are going to beette hitting. that's when i'd be more judgmental on the quarter. >> we're checking on both sides of the options market. names that are actually long calls. somebody like petrobras, we're buying puts. this tells me i think guys are still very nervous. guys are looking to buy protection. maybe they want to get longer on the down side. >> i agree they do want to buy protection, and they are buying protection right now. that's why they pushed up the spot. they're not buying the futures. >> alcoa to me, we talked about it last week, the aluminum market being oversupplied. aluminum doesn't go away. it takes

it's always alcoa, but nobody cares.ther than a small amount of demand. >> you don't think it's indicative of the commodity play? >> it's more of how dull it is for the frames that are provided. >> anybody that thinks that is going gangbusters, it's not. i think it's going to be a lead in to the rest of the earnings season. a week or 10 days from now, far more important. >> thanks, big guy for stopping by. see you later on. >> when we come back, she has to be the most hat wife of a wall reet scoundrel in history. there a stinctn. as ruth madoff i getting a bad wrap. the inside story that we will tell you all about. >> alcoa is the stock we are learning about. the biggest percentage drag and set to report earnings wednesday after the bell. back in two minutes. mr. evans? this is automatic signal . i haven you've been in a frontnd crash. do you need help? yeah. you okay? yeah. onstar. standard for one year on 14 chevy model with annuities fm fidelity. turn your savings in incom, and t a retirement "paycheck" for life -- gu

alcoa kicks off this afternoon. rich peterson over at thomson pointing out that the last time they surprised to the outside was in the second quarter 2008. they've had three consecutive quarters of losses and generally missed. we'll see what happens today. drug stocks again taking leadership as people look for a little bit of safe haven in health care. earlier in the day amgen a huge winner popping up on an osteoporosis treatment for breast cancer treatments. mike huckman blogged about that today. as far as technology in the afternoon, take a look at the microsoft chart. that really indicates where you saw some of those big caps. we saw them about an hour ago, we saw some piling into big caps. they hadeen under heavy pressure this morning. and the retailers really on fire this afternoon moving higher despite the fact there's still very much concern about consumers. we are going to be getting same-store sales for june tomorrow. family dollar was a standout after beating on its earnings and providing a good forecast.

jeff: susie, alcoa's shares rose 50 cents in aer hours trading. e stock waamong the nyse mo actives. wel see it as we take a look at our stocks in thnews tonight. atight's street critique guest says the markets are on ge for a reason. paul larson of morngstar, welcome ba to "nightly business report". >> thanks forhaving me ain. >> jeff: there'slways a lot of questions a we go through the seasons here aut how long does this recession las, and when we talk about ecomic green shoots,re ther any real economic gre shoots tspeak of. >> well, think you can characterize the economy and the ecomic indicators as being less bad. thin are certainly not as bad as they we back in the first quarter. t there's a big fference between less bad and good and we aremost ctainly ill in that less bad phase, stl going in reverse, still expeencing economic contraction. >> jf: what do w make of th rally we've seen these last weeksnd months? >> well, i thinkthat a loof the ray that we' experienced wa simply a multiple expansion rally meaning that the valuations just got soo

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shares of alcoa are set to rise this morning. alcoa is traditionally the first member of the dow to report its results each quarter. >>> general motors could emerge from bankruptcy protection as early as midnight. a federal judge could clear the way to sell its best assets to a new government-controlled company. while big changes under store, one of the most notable may be its iconic logo. they are considering changing the blue background to green a sign of the new commitment to producing fuel-efficient vehicles. >>> consumer credit fell $3 billion from april to may. some think consumers will remain cautious in the months ahead. this is the first time borrowing scaled back since the recession in the early '90s. >>> new labeling on bottled water will show it's not much different than tap water. americans spend about $16 billion on bottled water la of the year. nearly half of that water comes from municipal water supplies. government and environmental investigators say bottled water manufacturers should be required to disclose wher

alcoa. that name taking a big hit ahead of earnings.ome out on wednesday with that earnings story, and what we'll be looking for is not only a demand picture. how are people reacting? how is the universe reacting to demand for aluminum as well as other commodities? but the pricing picture going forward for the second half of the year. there's the

so whe will wall streetet take alcoa shares after t bell, afafr it rorts? weave david here, a pleasusure to have you on the prorogram. >> thahanks for ving me. >> what t are yoanticipating alcoa to report? >> w we thinthe earnings already pretty weak totorrow. we are lookining for anher big lolo. we think thehe positivaspect of the stock k came o today. we thought what they s said abt the end market wawas more important than the c capital number. the o had a speech in moscowow where he said hehe believeu.s. the e d chinare bottoming. china's lookingng really g gd a some sectors l like autut comin off e lows so i think that's why you had a big pop in the stock totoy and i thinkkhat's wh people are worriries about so i think t that cameut today, ani think you'll have a anany think k showing morrow. >> this worried d me as a ader. hehe rlly raisesed expecectatio going intotohe number tomorrow. he mentioned the auto trade pickcking up in the s sond halff the year herend chinana's stimulus. the are platudes that i thinwe have digested. do yothink this is a littl

alcoa kicked it off with a jarring loss late in the afternoon. but, surprise, the loss was less than expected. 26 cents a share instead of 38 cents. and alcoa's chief executive says he sees signs of a bottom and recovery in some sectors, and he's focusing on using the downturn to muscle up and gain market share. now, that is hope instead of fear. and while alcoa struggles, at the other end of the economy, retail, a smaller player turned in surprising earnings. family dollar rose above 59 cents a share. look for a preliminary report tomorrow from chevron, who knows what they'll say there. and big earnings reports next week from j & j., ibm, jpmorgan, bank of america. but the most important element won't be the actual numbers, it lfb the outlook that the companies give for the rest of the year. how much hope will they hold out? and lately i feel like companies want to kind of talk down. they're just so battered, and they want to kind of lower expectations. kind of like my approach to dating and i tell my friends, lower your expectations. go out wit

alcoa is one of the names. what traders and analysts are looking for out of the story is not only a question about pricing. their outlook on where aluminum will go from here will be important, but also demand. the question of demand is not only here in the united states, but demand overseas. where is it come for example and is it rebounding and can we trust it in the second half of the year. one of the things about commodities, we heard from ceos throughout the industry. people are saying it's not coming. the rebound and demand is not coming and it will be an important test to hear from alcoa whether or not they see it in the second half. will the economy pick up or slow down? there is all these different facets of the issues, but if banks are not fixed and ready to lend, we may not have a recovery. as we speak today, many of the biggest names are in washington, trying to find ways to perhaps get the fdic to make it easier to buy banks. they put what they say are arduous restrictions. is that good or bad? are t

what do you read into alcoa?t's a company that we all know frankly either hits or massively it's hard to reach much into it. is it going to be more important given the focus on earning season this time around? >> i think it will be initially. but i think as we get deeper into earnings season, you might see either a bifurcation or a separation as to industries that have better operating leverage or have taken themselves down to a level where they can really manage their business properly. i point to the semiconductors that have tremendous operating leverage on the balance sheets that surprise people to the upside. to your point, alcoa is important. you've got to look at specific industries as you go through this. >> thank you very much, john. appreciate it. >> you're very welcome. >>> we've got the final count down to the opening bell coming up on the there side of this break and more to watch and make sure that we rat least forth right with you. futures have closed. electronic trading session. they did close at t

it is that time of year again, earnings season kicks off today with alcoa. buckle up.iggest aluminum producer in the u.s. may report a third straight quarterly loss. economist saying lower demand from auto makers and construction industry keeps aluminum at about half of last year's prices. one analyst says global suppliers are overshooting demand. wall street is closely watching the numbers for any kicks of how the rest of earnings season might go. stock index futures indicating a higher open today and sharp selloff yesterday. energy and tech stocks sinking, the s&p now at the lowest level in two months. washington under cyber attack according to the a.p. the associated press says hackers are targeting the treasury department, secret service, federal trade commission and trorg department websites. it says the attacks pay be linked to recent cyber crime in south korea where banks are also being targeted. looking like it is a renter's market out there. so, renters listen up. apartment vacancies at the highest levels in 22 years. the last time landlords had so much empty

on thursday is gonna be interesting to see how the market reacts to alcoa's earnings the company reported another big loss for the second quarter more than four to $50 million loss in most market experts would say that even though alcoa is a big bet component there are more important companies to watch like ge and some transportation stocks. but we need more uncertainty and stories about computer hacking and government agency was size even the new art stock exchange impacting public access. federal regulatory officials say they are ready to open up debate over imposing limits on oil speculators... but industry insiders say the feds are completely missing the mark.... and that the problem lies with shrinking supply not speculators. for the next 2 months, the commodity futures trading commission will hold hearings to determine whether the government should place limits on the position sizes that speculators in oil and other energy markets can trade. some say that will only result in artificial oil prices "as far as limiting speculators.. the market takes care of that itself.. price discover

alcoa earning season ending after the bell. after the break, the trillion doll question at the g-8 summit, will world leaders tackle the problem of the dollar. you don't have to go to italy. one well connected man will give his take when we come right back. >> time now for today's aflac trivia question. who was the first professional baseball player to also play professional otball? the answerhen cnbc "squawk x" continues. you really nit these days. well if you're hurt and can't work it pays you cash... yeah to help with everyday bills well if you're hurt and can't like gas, the mortgage...... .and groceries. it's like insurance fodaily living. so...what'it called? uhhhhh saflaaac!!!! called? oh yeah! that's it! aflac. we've got you undeour wing. a-a-a-aflaaac! >>> who was the first professional baseball player to also play professional football? the answer, ed abbaticchio. >> topics discussed at the g-8 meeting in italy, joining us senior marketing director of market intelligence joins us on set along with mr. pataki. any sign

alcoa reporting today after the close. but we are poised for an eighth quarter of consecutive earnings losses. materials and energy stocks led the way higher as the dollar spiked and moved and firmed after that successful ten-year auction. energy once again for six straight days of losses in oil leading the way lower. we did see a bit of a move into some defensive areas. health care in particular, the drug stocks. health care services looking well. but here's a surprise this afternoon. what's leading us a little bit higher off the lows? retail. family dollar was a standout after posting better-than-expected earnings as people trade down to those dollar stores. look at tiffany. look at jcpenney's. we get retail sales tomorrow p maybe some folks moving in ahead -- maybe some folks thinking lower gas prices, lower interest rates. maybe that will have consumers just a bit. it's a fascinating time, a fascinating market these days. brian schachteman, what's it look like? the nasdaq 100 turning positive. >> yeah, but right now th

ititooookelike alcoa actually came in betteter than p peoe we expectining. what is your s sen of seconond quarter earnings and h how corporate amamera a is doingigit no >> i think second quarter earnings versussececd quarter last y yrr will be down v vy meaningfully. hohover, earnings expectatioio actutual h he been revivid d upn the conseseusus in recent eks. soso i think it's g gngngo be a mixexed ba but, cleaearl earnings arere suffering becacausththeeconomy versus thehe sonon quarterofof laststyear,as been gogoin straigig d dow so i ththin the market will stst focusing on forwardoooong earningsgsss oosos to getting obsessed about secononduauaer eaearngs. for r an i iividual compmpan obobvisly, that wl be different. >>rere you expecting to see a recoveveryn n th third or fourt quarter of this year, orrre youu bebethnn 2010 for the broad onony recovery? i think wewe'l have a statistical recoveryry hee in te second half ofthe yearss we shift from thearark side t tohe sunny side the inventorory cycle. i call it addition elimination n straction. but t i n'n't

it looks like alcoa came in better than people were expecting. what is your sense of second quarter earnings and how corporate america is doing right now? >> i think second quarter earnings versus second quarter of last year will be down very meaningfully. however, earnings expectations actually have been revised up on the consensus in recent weeks. somewhat of a mixed bag. clearly earnings are suffering because the economy versus the second quarter of last year is down. i think the market will stort focusing on forward-looking earnings as opposed to getting obsessed about second quarter earnings. for any individual company, obviously, that will be different. >> are you expecting to see a recovery in the third or fourth quarter of this year, or are you betting on 2010 for the broad economy recovery? >> i think we'll have a recovery here in the second half of the year, as we shift from the dark side to the sunny side of the inventory cycle. i call it addition by elimination of subtraction. but i don't think we'll have a recovery in the main until

alcoa kicks things off tonight. optimistic at least in comments from clinefeld yesterday. the outlook may not say much about demand for the steel makers. this morning's rio tinto trading heavily. unusually trading to the downside. headlines out of china that forbes executives have been detained for spying, to the not for exactly related but that's one to watch today. and the commodities as we continue to watch today's economic recovery trade come off family dollar is one of the signs that the recession trades down the company is earning top. outlook is very robust. moving to the upside. pepsi bottling group also topping expectations on its earnings. and looking at its outlook at the high end of expectation which really raises the bar for pepsi trying to buy up its bottlers. also, raising the bar is nrg, rejecting exelon's bid by boosting its outlook, saying price continues to be too low. watch the casinos as well. the chairman of las vegas sands says this is better than people think in las vegas. he's looking to rai

wall street was expecting worse and the shares of alcoa are actually set to rise this morning.ficially the first member of the dow to report its results each quarter. >>> general motors could emerge from bankruptcy protection as soon as midnight. a federal judge could clear the way today for the automaker to sell its best assets to a new government-controlled company. while big changes are in store for gm one of the most notable may be its iconic logo. gm is said to be considering changing the blue background to green, a sign of its new commitment to producing fuel-efficient vehicles. >>> americans pulled back on borrowing in may for the fourth straight month. consumer credit fell more than $3 billion from april to may and many experts think consumers will remain cautious in the months ahead. this is the first time americans scaled back borrowing for four months in a row since the recession in the early 1990s. >>> two new reports calling for new labeling on bottled water to show it's not much different than tap water. americans expects about $16 billion on bottled water last ye

>> i think the alcoa tradeas what it was. if y look at everybody else in the space,heteel companies did rally. they are getting that bid from china d yes, i do think that aluminum is a key part of e auto trade. but we said yesterday alinum inventories e very high. >> lk at copper today. pper was up 6%. free port mcmora that turned arou as well. i'not gog to buy aluminum. i'm going to buy the copper trade. >> goldman sachs the reason why the fincials were moving higher. bank of america. sentially saying that goldman could top its recordevel of trading renue set for 2007 is year. that sakto what kind of trading environment this has been for the besin breeds who can properly manage their ri and their assets. looking for e, and we told thother day when jpmorgan s below 32, now's not thtime to be shortinit. now's the time to be covering. closed at 3360up 2.8%. now if you're looking foa shoridea, and i do think the nancials set up on the srt side, look for jpmorn to trade between .50 and 35. easy short with a stop above 35.25. i th

alcoa for that -- you can thank alcoa for that. that is your business news. live at bloomberg headquarters in new york, i am linda bell. doug and alison, back to you. >> thank you. >>> 5:28, 65 degrees. the news continues. >> in the next half hour, the fallout over a metro train operator caught texting while in the driver's seat. >> police say they have saw out steve mcnair's murder. we will tell you about the motive. >> adam caskey live in the weather center. we had a perfect day yesterday. we will see how today it will prepare. we will see how today it will prepare. for your retirement makes sense, just stay on track. what is...? that's the guidance you get from fidelity. thanks. stay on the line! whatever your destination, fidelity has the people, guidance, and investments to help you find your way. >> live and in hd, this is "good morning washington," on your side. >>> welcome back to "good morning washington." we are glad you are joining us. i'm alison starling. >> and i'm doug mckelway. would begin with your traffic and weather together every 10 minutes

shares of alcoa are set to rise today. general motors could emerge from bankruptcy protection as early as midnight. they could sell their best assets to a government- controlled company. one of the most notable lobo's, gm is said to consider changing the blue background to green. americans pulled back unmarked -- on borrowing in may. consumer credit fell from april to may. many experts think consumers will remain cautious. it is the first time consumers have scaled back this much since the recession. new reports are calling for relabeling of bottled water. americans spent about $16 billion on bottled water last year. investigators say bottled water manufacturers should be required to disclose where the water comes from. the recession may be causing overweight people to gain more weight. researchers did not find the same effect for people who had normal way. coming up on "good morning america," an exclusive intview with warren buffett. does he think the economy is finally turning brown? that is your "money scope" report. >>

up next an exclusive interview with the ceo of alcoa. find out if he thinks the recent rise in aluminum prices can be sustained. we also want to talk about the so-called inflation trade with our guests. sarah keterror, let me ask you what i asked tony earlier, and that is is there still that amount of money on the sidelines that obviously has come to work into the stock market? do you think the rally has legs from here, second half of the year? >> absolutely. but i don't think it will be say strien li a straight line either. there's a tremendous amount of value causeway is finding. we're certain there's plenty of up side. >> we just heard the numbers out of amgen. how would you assess the quarterly earnings period and do you think that's enough of a boost for that money to come into the stock market? >> yes. and it's not necessarily current earnings, especially for the cyclical stocks that have had the big moves this year. their current earnings are terrible. and they may be fairly disappointing early next year. but it's the earnings est

on the alcoa front very specifically we'll be asking two specific questions. first of all, pricing. what do they see as the outlook for pricing? and second of all what do they see as far as demand? is it a matter of a peckup in demand or are people replenishing the inventories that have been depleted? that will be a very important question. what we saw today in particular, it was strength throughout the session in the consumer staples names. but certainly into those final moments of trade those names happened to firm up from kraft to coca-cola and mcdonald's, procter & gamble as you see up there, they all finished the day stronger. and certainly, that helps things along. throughout the day's session but also into the close. one thing that note that's interesting about these consumer staples names, their input costs are reliant in many cases on commodities. so when commodities prices go lower, they happen in terms of the margin to get a bit of a benefit. and then american express getting the benefit of an upgrade today over at stifel upgrading to a hold but certainly in positive terr

alcoa a stteted e day off on a positive note and thee eaings seasas o on positive nono. but alcocoa spspit beating estimates wasn't really a allhat bullish h ouout s outlook.k. the retailers, aixed bag. the highghnd were weak, and the low end a littltle better,, but overalall j jusunderscores coconser weakness. as far fifinaiaia, goldman chs a standout, bngng pgpgrad atank of america merrillll lynch.h. goman sachs wl be reporting xtxtuesday. ththosesestites have come up, doubled alalmo s sce two months agago. real expectationonhahat they'll outperform. e regionals are doioi very wellll. morgan kgan upping itits estimateteonon huntington baban sharar.. and energydodog well wwl,l, with the wkness in the dollar today after the bank ofofngngla decided i it snsn going to buy babacktsts ndnd the gld rchases. it's c cutngng those. drug stocks the one weaeaknsisig dragging t t d dow merck has beenen arara there wass c clelestol drug trial involvingmerck andbbbbot bs, zedia, a ait was halteted norereal sure why, but t stksksave been down onn that ws. meantime, the oos oncegagain

of course, alcoa kicks off today, very interesting. even as you're seeing some of the other commodities pull back, commodities were leading earlier, but now they have pulled back a little bit. we're getting little more defensive. we're seeing health care and utilities once again moving up. people looking for that dividend yield. >> yeah, okay, let's talk about american airlines. i know that's one that you wanted to get to today. >> no, actually, it's microsoft, mister softee. and goggle. they're kind of traipsing on one another's territory. google is now looking at the operating system android. but we've heard about these operating systems trying to topple microsoft before. linix was supposed to be it, then microsoft is trying to challenge google. i'm a googler, not a binger. >> do we have any starts to throw off? >> i'm not sure. they were both moving higher, but the nasdaq composite is down four. doesn't look like they're doing the trick. but it's interesting to see some competition heating up. >> and i think you're right, we are fee

as always, dow component alcoa is kickin

still though, a third quarterly loss for alcoa.sive security breach at some federal building spree and hidden cameras showing undercover agents sneaking bomb- making materials into 10 buildings. our catherine herridge is in washington with what congress is doing about it. scary stuff, catherine. >> investigators from the government accountability office, the investigative arm of the congress, another layer of security was easily breached. >> in some cases, bathrooms were locked, but federal employees let us in to those bastards, and reassembled the materials. usually in under four minutes. it is a quick thing to put together. we placed them in a briefcase and walked around several offices, including the legislative offices in cities tpb:uz went to. >> a video was also provided to investigators showing what could have happened. thatñr is if the bomb components were real, and they could have driven the damage, as you see there. there is the agency which oversees security for 9000 federal facilities. they were obviously contrite. >> w

alcoa comes out on wednesday and alcoa of all the dow stocks, that is the first one traditionally toarnings season. so now, we shift a little bit from economic news to corporate earnings and to see how well things went in the second quarter. first quarter, not so good but that was expected. second quarter, we are expecting better. >> very good. we'll see how the week goes. thank you. >>> coming up next, former d.c. mayor marion barry arrested over the weekend accused of stalking and we are hoping to find out more about that coming up a little bit later this morning. sarah similar monday is following this story which has taken a new twist. >> that's right. councilman barry denies those stalking claims but there are two very different versions of the story emerging here. i'll have those for you when fox 5 morning muse returns. stay with us. spars-- when fox 5 morning news returns. stay with us. >>> a long holiday weekend and we're off to a good start. >> let's he take a look at what i on out oithe. wrttah ait afoisg y. ordv dense fog advisory issued but the national weather service. i

earnrnin season bebegiinin with alcoa tomorrow. a top analyst tellsls us i if t dow's commodity stock can geget this markett started fasas off e li,, wn aameca's post-markett show continues. oooo i hope he has ththatnsnsurce. aflac!c! you really need it theheseayay w come? llll iyou're hurt and can'ttwo. yeye to help with evereryd b bil like g gasththmortgage... ...and groceceeses. 's's le insurance for daily y lingng so...what's it calalle uhhhhh afaac!!!! oh yeah! thatat i it! aflalac. 've got. last month, this woman wasn't even able to get around inside of her own home. they chose mobility. and they chose the scooter store! if you or a loved one live with limited mobility call the scooter store! no other company will work harder to make you mobile or do more to guarantee your complete satisfaction. if we pre-qualify you for a new power chair or scooter and your claim isn't approved, the scooter store will give you your power chair or scooter free. that's our guarantee. they were so helpful and nice. they filed all the paperwork,

wewe'l be watatining tomorrow t alcoa earnrnin report. >> and the ten-year auctctioisi gogointo be a verery big auauio. >> successful l auioio toy.y. we'll seseifif that f flows ththroh totomoow. thanksks. bertha cobs. e business headlines of the y. the otheher storiese'e're fofol new yorkrk bkers association reportrtgg consumer loansns delinquencies s rehehe new ghs because of the ruruling econonomanandising unemploymen. credit card delinququeneses risg to a r rorord 2.3% ding the period and lateayaymes on home equityty brorowi and lines o of critit hting new highsofof 3.5252%. 1. respecectilyly. oi pcesncnc a aga wnwn. crude o oil finishing the day below $63. w at $62.93 a babarr.. th is nottopping thenenerg administrarati f fm raising its oioi price forecast t no prpredtiti oil will average $6$69.a a bael sececddalf of ththe yeye.. thatat's a a $3 i incase from p expectations. prospepectfofo anconomic recovery. crcre is seen averaging $72.42 a babael nextxt year, a $55 i ire frfromheherevious priction. >>> a federalal jy y ling form eoeoig hank greenbergdodoes not need to reimburu

alcoa is too poorly run. i just don't like them at all. i do like freeport. think richard does a good job and i also like bhp though that company is starting to say everything that's been good is all about china. let's wait until the mineral stocks come down. they've had two big runs. tina in mississippi? >> caller: boo-ya from mississippi. >> well, boo-ya so we got to respect it. >> caller: great. the company cvx chevron? >> now you're talking. here is a company that preannounced when everybody thought it was a big quarter, the stock goes down to 6162, all my e-mail saying this. why? because everyone knew chevron was having a bad quarter. now with the futures ahead of us a 4% yield and i want to tell you to buy, buy, buy. buy chevron. and "the lightning round" is over. [bell ringing] the way the stock market's been acting lately you may wonder if you've been doing the right thing. is the advice you've been getting helping or hurting? are the fees you're paying really worth it? td ameritrade's fees are fair and straight-forward. their research is independent

i know a lot of people watching alcoa to report last night.else we're looking for this week? >> it is not as exciting as football season as i tell everybody but it is very important. alcoa got it kicked off yesterday and they lost money but they performed bet are than analys' expectation. they've been trading very well. pepsi bottling did well. and you have family dollar stores. they had a 36% increase in profit. on the retail side, wal-mart is doing fine. these dollar stores are doing great. they are really taking advantage of people trading down in this recession and just continue to go like gangbusters. they raised their guidance for the rest of the year. >> some good news there. >> kind of a little good news on the tail end of a lot of bad news but take what you can get. >> you got to look for the silver lining on wall street. >> thank you, chris. >>> a metro train operator caught on camera not paying attention to the track. >>> new video surfacing of a metro train operator apparently asleep. it came from a concerned teenager. find out wha

we kick off the second quarter earnings season with aluminum maker alcoa.ostly lower to the closes going into this big reporting week. a debate about the dollar as the world's reserve currency. china going into the g-# and italy saying it is not an issue at the table for them. and companies reaping the best rewards. the stock market rewarding companies such as johnson & johnson and sisco that have been brave enough to make acquisitions. holiday snapshots and family details about the newly appointed mi 6 have been removed from a facebook page after a newspaper told the government about them. apparently the wife put these on the facebook site. very embarrassing. red face all around. but i guess they're going to get taken off. that's your roundup of the business stories. i'm geoff cutmore on the cnbc in london. >> all right. thank you, geoff. >>> baseball's all-star lineups are out. sunday's top highlights on the diamond. and tiger is back on the prowl. plus, roger federer makes tennis history at wimbledon. >>> coming up, we'll talk about chances for showers d

alcoa is too poorly run. i don't like them at all. i like freeport.hink ackerson does a good job in scx. i like bh peel company. they say everything that's good is all about china. let's wait until the mineral stocks come down. tina in mississippi. tina. >> caller: boo-yah from mississippi. >> that's where boo-yah is from, so we have to respect it. >> caller: okay, great. cvx, chevron. >> now you're talking. here's a company that announced that -- preannounced what everyone thought was a really big quarter. the stock goes down to 61, 62. i immediately pull the trigger and say you have to buy this for actionalertsplus.com. now with the futures ahead of us wet get a 4% yield. buy chevron to the power of 9, and the "lightning round" is on over. fair, straight-forward pricing. that's what td ameritrade stands for. think about it. why pay investing fees you shouldn't have to? or account fees that aren't clear? like inactivity fees? or maintenance fees? it's not right. and you know it. and the thing is, the other investment firms know it. but they do it any

with alcoa, we know their production and numbers are down. i think aluminum started a rally. i look to the housing market. everybody's told us, including the numbers, this is stabilized. >> look at steel. we talked about u.s. steel yesterday. we said that the goldman upgrade here was awful, the timing. look at the stocks today, 7%. granted china has a lot to do with this. we'll talk about it gen. goldman upgrade, they're late to the party. >> when you talk about china we oftentimes talk about the fxi. the fxp is an ultra short play over there. if you think there is a little bit more room to this china pullback we've seen a little bit of the armor starting to take a few shots. it is starting to pull back a little bit. last night obviously. today. we'll see what happens overnight. september 10 calls today. you'll get double the short to the up side. september 10 calls an amazing amount of activity out there. very cheap. volatility's not very high right now. great opportunity if you think china's got a few -- >> i like that trade. >> we talked in march about china. their stimulu

first up are alcoa, pepsi bottling, family dollar and chevron this week. according to zacks research, analysts estimate a 21% drop in median s&p 500 earnings... compared to a year ago. experts say it will be a matter of some sectors reporting really bad earnings... and others reporting slightly bad earnings. morningstar analysts believe the material sector will take the biggest hit for 2nd quarter earnings....that includes companies invovled in fertilizers, chemicals, and commodities... the big drop in earnings in the materials sector is due to falling prices and volumes... because of the recession. "this area saw commodity prices down significantly.. more than 50% when those price declines flow through earnings.. we'll see those earnings down 40% in thsi sector." paul larson says of morningstar says there are some traditional defensive sectors that continue to hold up better. areas like consumer staples.. health, utlities are not falling nearly to the same degree.. still showing year over year declines... but they wll be down single digits range far bette

alcoa bucking g e e trd bows ununci back. morrow, are the hmhmosonon see positive talk? apparent leewaynn washingtononon the psisility of lesess stringent governmentnt plan? >>>>> re talk ofststulus in the last few minutes. the majority leaderer i in e sesena s sing he'e'd be open t send stimulus program. let's goovover to the n ndaq an briaian. >> thank you, w might go to leleve we haven't seen since may. we'r're wnwn or a rcent. it's n not quite 2-1 so i terms of eadthitit's not a brd-d-bad selloff butut with some big names thesesepo prpronncncedweakness. microsoft has aa securityisissu and they s shey're workingng on a tch forhat they call the ze day security e elentnt but they're downwn 1.9%. yao!o! launching a n new search pad asststt.t. you u casasave yourototes and sd it o on twitter or facebook tt down 2 p poi 6%. apple down 1.7. amamon down n 2.6.6 i wantnt p poi out one positive, bank of amerera,a, merrrrillynch,ndnd ntnt, has a buyyrating. marvelel i up 3.1% butotot pulling up the broader chips. rick, he's inn chicago. hanks, c crse, i don't neneedo say it. yo

and alcoa, aa. >> i've got to tell you, jersey is just the heart of good stock picking.what the man has. philip morris. someone actually downgraded this yesterday. that was a major mistake. that person should go do more homework. it was a terrific quarter, and it yields 4, could be yielding 5, under 43 i want to buy it. that's the international version, top co. version. at&t good quarter. i didn't think as good as verizon. ivan seidenberg is not a promotional man. att does have the iphone. dow chemical saw it sneak over 20 and i said how could i not have recommended it when i pulled him off the wall of shame? that was a mistake. i should have just pulled the trigger. exxon is my favorite growth utility because it has nuclear power dominance. alcoa coming back not my favorite but you've got an aluminum company, a chemical company, teleco-company, terrific food company, let's call tobacco food for a moment, and a great utility. that is complete and utter diversification. both our players made it look easy. i congratulate them. that is how you play the game. stay with crame