but polls seem to show that alex cink is going to win this. >> tactically, it seems like democrats --i've been ahead of the republicans on this issue for years. in florida. the recent years, going back to 2008, that they essentially, obama carried the state both times, arguably on tactics and performance onto ground. >> right. the republican party of florida turnout machine is vaunted for a reason. they do a great job getting the vote out, because republicans are greatly outnumbered in the state, probably by about 500,000 registered voters or so. you know, in the 2012 elections, despite the obama turnout machine, republicans voted in greater proportions relative to the registration than democrats. the difference is the democratic slice of the pie is so much bigger, that they can kind of get by and win with a smaller percentage turnout. >> let me ask you this. i've had people ask me this question, being a floridians, and i don't have a good answer, maybe i don't have a politically correct answer. >> no one does. >> yeah, and that is how is it that both parties -- here it is one of the

democrat alex cink narrowly lost the governor's race to rick scott in 2010.go where they serve up politics along with the sweets we found some fierce opponents of obamacare. >> i had blue cross and blue shield, and when obamacare kicked in, i had basically i couldn't afford. it had lost coverage on my children because it was so high. >> reporter: also found one registered republican who is a fan. costume shop owner sarah paul recently signed up. >> haven't had insurance for 28 years. no joke. we couldn't afford it. >> reporter: that's the way this district is, truly 50/50. republican david jolly is hoping his push to repeal obamacare will win over voters, mindful he needs to propose alternatives. >> we can't just be the party of no. we can't just say obamacare is bad. we have to have creative solutions. >> reporter: cink is campaigning on her support for obamacare while at the same time keeping what she says is a flawed program somewhat at arm's length. >> well, i wouldn't describe my position as having embraced obamacare. there are plenty of things that are

here is the latest ad from democratic candidate alex cink. >> we can't go back to letting insurance companieswhatever they want. instead of repealing the health care law we need to keep what's right and fix what's wrong. i'll work with republicans and democrats for health care that's affordable and works for us. i'm alex sink, and i approve this message. >> joining me now are former pennsylvania governor ed rendell and nbc political news analyst and msnbc news senior political analyst david axelrod, a former senior adviser to president obama. governor rendell, i want to give you a political campaign strategy decision to make. you have a choice of running against government or you can run against insurance companies. just if you had to pick one of the two to run against in pennsylvania to try to win an election, which one of those things do you think you could make less popular and successfully run against in pennsylvania? >> insurance companies. no ifs, ands, or buts about it. >> yeah. i mean, david axelrod, the democrats don't have a choice here. there's no running away from this. they did i