post-algiers we drafted a roadmap. algiers accord.integral part of this map, we have increased the level of consultations, not only within opec member countries, but with non-opec coalitions, particularly russia. the russian federation has been before very constructive algiers, during aligers, and here in instanbul. and later today, we will have another go at further consultations. yousef: you say have a further go, but when you look at russia's past the commitments, they have not been exactly stellar. why would it be different this time around? firmtin has a very commitment at the very hi ghest level of government. we have been working with him, side-by-side, shoulder to shoulder. so, we are confident. yousef: that sounds great, but how much do they need to cut for you to be happy. >> we would like to preempt the consultations that are right now ongoing. but we would like a firm commitment from the russian federation to participate in the processes. those building blocks in place, we are taking that into account. yousef: what about w

before algiers, during algiers and here. will have another round of further consultations. >> looking at russia's track record, it hasn't been stellar. why would it work this time around? glutenheard from latimer doesn't vladimir putin -- you vladimir putinme a commitment at the highest level of government. we are working side by side, shoulder to shoulder. we are confident. the question is not if, it's win. if opec does cut production, forget about the freeze, they need to cut production. if they cut production meaningfully, to pr to present,e 2%, we see oil prices going higher. opec cannot produce any more oil. global demand continues to increase. global supply is declining. when.estion is >> in the past about when opec has been effective, it's been because of saudi arabia. do they still have the wherewithal, the power, the influence to drive a deal here? >> if only because of the overall number. they produce more oil than anybody else. having said that, higher oil prices would bring a response from shale producers. shell

how much of this has to do with what is going on here in algiers?t proposal not getting as much traction at the beginning, and may change later on in the day as opec convenes at 3:00 local time. you expect them to come to some sort of consensus? >> it seems unlikely this time. this is not the formal meeting. i think it is more likely to get an agreement in november. i think at that point, iran has achieved its 4 million barrels per day target, and that removes one of the obstacles that seem to be playing an agreement. i think more likely november then this time, but in any case, oil prices have bought -- bottom. lastin mind that over the two years, opec has increased outlook -- outlook for iran. it has been gradually absorbed and we have a situation where i think the market supply balances much tighter than with the year ago. we're looking for prices to firm up for the november meeting. and analysts said that the disparity that currently exist would likely seek talks fail and that none of the current scenarios seem plausible. action inneed to take c

we're really excited to welcome vicki algier to heritage today to discuss her thorough and interesting become on the failure of federal education, and she doesn't mince words. the very title "failure: the federal miseducation of america's children" and argues it is time to end, not mend, federal intervention in education. as dr. algier explains in her book, the federal government left education alone for 100 years, recognizing it was the purr vie -- purview of states and localities. but gradually federal restraint gave away and by 1979, we saw the first cabinet level agency for education established with the birth of the u.s. department of education. today, that agency houses nearly 5,000 employees, manages over 150 federal education programs, and has a discretionary budget of $70 billion. i might ad it's really the tip of the iceberg because we see this somewhat parasitic relationship with state education agencies as well, who have to be responsive to all of these federal mandates and dictates and as a result have also increased their staffing over the decades as well. so, what have w

cannot say exactly what we're going to expect on the heels of that algiers meeting on september 28.that they do agree to plan to cut millions of barrels of oil a day, but do not expect anything concrete just yet. the already heard from the energy minister, alexander novak, saying this was just consultation, and in terms of them really coming to agreement with countries outside wanting toel but continue with the opec agreement, that will have to be next month in vienna, so what we are hoping for today is any kind of details ahead of the official meeting in the yen at next month. certainly, he then i on the price of crude, and since the algiers deal, crude has been trading higher, nearly 10%, and if we hear any positive chatter of this deal sticking, certainly crude will get a boost from that. annmarie, putin will be in attendance, and after the jets that were downed by the war plan, that was last november. why is he attending now? what is the symbol between erdogan and putin today? annmarie: it seems the relations between the two have healed since the downing of the jet in november.

>> i didn't know what to expect out of algiers. companies who traditionally don't have good relations actually make some understandings and agreements there. i think what is less important, what are all the details of the agreement? just the fact that people are talking and there's cooperation is very significant. they will continue to talk. i think even here in istanbul and we'll see what happens in november. as an oil company, not part of opec, we're not going to rely on that, depend on that. we're still going to make our changes and adjust, but you do see changes in the market. the world recognizes $1 to $2 trillion in projects canceled or deferred. i think there's a nervousness that can catch up with the world down the road here. so there's a lot to talk about. >> reporter: you know russia perhaps better than anyone, uh you still have a significant presence there. do you see any scenario where the russians will join the output on cuts let alone forcing a freeze? >> i have listened to what president putin and the energy minister

andave seen after algiers, such a statement would further push the price is up.eeds tohat, take two factors into consideration. -- what higher prices would be the impact of this on the fragile oil demand? expect without this price increase, 1.2 billion barrels a day. the higher prices one may well expect the demand would be slower as a result of efficiency improvement. number two -- appreciate your comments. we had just heard what you said. the most important thing for the markets to understand is the russians what prefer a freeze rather than a cuts. do you think we need a cut to move the price higher to a new level? toyou think it can get back $60 and in what time. period? what time >> i would not speculate. not american producers -- we are watching the debate closely and they will make their investment decisions. in a six months or so, we will see the north american production increase again and put a lot of oil on the markets. this decision, cutting or , and the price increase afterwards could lead to a bigger oil glut and higher production from north america

up to algiers.ersonally was in tehran. i got the highest pledge from the highest quarters after meeting with the minister as well as the president of iran, president rahani, who have both assured me that at the end of the day despite the fact that every member country of opec is there to protect its national sovereign right. >> so you can hear unambiguously that iran is on board, and that's very interesting. the next big meeting is tomorrow. there's an opec meeting with the russians tomorrow. they're going to try to work towards getting them involved. then october 28th in vienna it's going to be a technical permitting where non-opec members will be invited in, where not just the sound. it's not just iranians, but possibly the russianss awell, and they're all building up towards the 30th of november where they want to try to come up with some announcement that they have cut within the organization and they can come from without, and that's interesting. prices abating as we've all seen in the markets.

algier explains in her book, the federal government left education alone for 100 years, recogni i

meeting on the back of the algiers meeting. here is what we are going to be watching out for. novak does not expect any further agreement. russia is is that pumping at post-soviet highs. talking about the barrels and if everyone is going to in attend., -- attend. are they going to be able to carve this out? let's get some more context, ahead of these meetings. how are the investors reacting? >> good morning. they are reacting to the news and they are buying the idea of oil right now and we saw it last that theye have seen and a lot of investors are thinking that it is risky to take this that on people will lose money on that deal and there is a reaction towards the end of the year. on what i'llepends pack needs to do to achieve the deal. >> you touched on some issues and they need to discuss the you have the countries on board with the saudi's and the russians talking in september and getting the ball rolling to reach the agreement and they will want to andg the russians on board they will want to get the and it will berd part of the talk this week. anthony is our energy marke

. >> i didn't know what to expect coming out of algiers. ly note that countries that traditionally don't have good relations actually made some understandings and some agreements there. and i think what is less important, what are all the details of that agreement, is just the fact that people are talking and the cooperation is very significant. they will continue to talk, i think, here in istanbul and we'll see what happens in november. >> reporter: what bob dudley was saying there is that the talk that is happened in algiers hopefully will carry on to november 30th for those of you watching the oil market. can they get people to carry on talking? what bob was saying is traditionally the likes of the iranians and the iraqis have found it hard to get a deal with saudi, maybe that means we'll get a better deal back in november. back to you guys. >> steve, thank you for that live from istanbul. oil prices are soft after a decent ten days or so. >>> still to come, this morning's top stories including social media reaction to last night's presi

no, the decision in algiers was an all-inclusive one.greed to this accord. in addition, it was agreed to form this high level quality of technical experts to work out and except will framework for the implementation of this accord. ld its first meeting in the end and we still have a month before november 30, so we are on course. in the markety was that iraq sees itself producing more oil than opec itself is iraq producing. they do not want to cut or freeze. they want to produce more. you think that is wrong? mohammed: no, i do not think you have got the right information. theral days ago i met with minister of oil of iraq. that was together with his prime minister and the president himself. i got a firm commitment from the highest quarters in baghdad that they are committed to the implementation of the algiers accord. i do not know where you' getting your information from. alix: they are trying to prove to reporters that they are actually producing 4.7 million barrels a day. they are going on what some are considering a charm offensive.

the secretary general of opec, who said to me that actually any skepticism about a deal coming from algiersut production from within opec is misplaced and that all members of opec, all 14 members, we on board. listen to go what he had to say about the all-important contribu. >> after meeting the minister, as well the president, rouhani, all assured me that at the end of the day, despite the fact that every member country is there to protect each national sovereign right, but iran will join in a consensus to re-establi market balance on a sustainable basis. >> that was the secretary general over peck, just confirmi to me that all members -- of opec were on board leasting up to the meeting in november in vienna. there is skepticism on this deal and that's been sending markets easier on the oil price on tuesday. we saw skepticism from the likes of goldman sac who said actually they didn't believe that saudi could push through across all members of the group. and a very important man, the boss in russia. russia, of course, the worlds biggest oil producer. represes 40% of that country's producti

tom going to roll back pre-algiers where a majority of the market felt there would not be an agreement. this time around, round two, what is going to happen? are they going to try to bring in non-opec producers? clearly everybody is under low willbecause of the prices. non-opecers and members. opec is in demise. they no longer have the market share they used to have in the 1980's and 1990's. shale oil is there. renewables and solar. those are, all of i don't see an agreement between russia and other non-opec producers. the pressure is to increase production. >> there is a lot of pressure on saudi arabia as well. in many ways, this is an effective capitulation. the strategy has not worked, to put this shale producers market. you can intervene short-term. out of business. the local story is forcing them to say, we are pulling the plug. >> the bed was to get shale oil out. arenology and efficiency such that they can compete at $45 a barrel or $50 a barrel. they will pick the oil out. they will stop when the oil prices are down again. we can no longer control the market. the evidence is, g

>> they show that in algiers. they gave iran an exemption. they thought iran could get up from 29 to 36, 37 over the next three months. now that iran proved it could, they conceded that to them. they said they would agree to talk about individual country quotas. saudis resisted that. that's a way of shaming saudi arabia into trying to get them to give back the market share they have taken from other opec companies. i was a little surprised they made that concession too. it is all for verbal intervention, not for supply management. i think the saudis will go down to 102. >> starting to hear about energy independence again in some of the debates. every president, literally, since nixon, had said we are going to be oil and energy independent and we're going to not need opec and not -- all that has happened for the most part is that our imports have gone up. is there any sign we're going to become energy and/or oil independent under the next administration, whoever it may be, and however it may rain? >> no, not if you talk about independence mean

it is important to remember, since the opec meeting in algiers, price is up 15%. it has had a material impact. that has taken place in the face of a rising dollar, which shows the markets really responded. francine: how significant was putin's intervention yesterday? will: people are skeptical about whether russia will ever engage in real demand management. run byn oil industry private companies. they have very difficult weather conditions to contend with. but the fact he was there and send it i think means they are willing perhaps to freeze production, at least. that said, your chart shows very clearly the record level. they pumped 11.3 million barrels a day in the first of this month. francine: how much do you look at oil? diana: oil is really important. in the u.s., the oil dividend was not as much as people thought, because we now produce oil. between 40 and 50, the shale fields are productive. investment has begun to pick up. it is the element that is not really being taken into account in terms of how much oil will come on. we have to go through the balancin

they had algiers, they had this meeting indiana, what are we looking for?were the final statements, if there ever is one? bulls, theyl market would like to see clear numbers, to say that it would take this much or you run would take that much, everybody's position is very clear. , so thato mechanisms you know you are doing what they say, -- mark: you come to an agreement and everyone abides by it. correct >>. at a time when there is so much pressure, the price is low. and need all they can get they have got to try and find a way through this. mark: if they don't actually reach an agreement and the consequences if they don't follow through, already, this is a chart. the 50 day moving average. the blue line comes in the 100 day moving average. is the market beginning to lose faith in opec? >> i don't think it is losing faith. i am looking for reassurance that what it said it will do, it will do. you are looking at the very real obstacles. >> all that figures out. all that figures out how much oil will fall in hurdle one or hurt two. hurdle two. -- >> the mark

. >> the decision in algiers was a holistic one.included the islamic republic of iran. >> so they would have to participate in a phrase or cut? >> they are already part of this decision and i think it is quite gnificant. you heard yourself from president vladimir putin, at the world energy congress, a firm commitment at the highest level of government. able minister has been with to hand,g hand side-by-side, shoulder to shoulder. we are confident. david: they are pretty confident, he is happy he has got iran in, he has got russia in. sounds romantic. will be the cynical, he is happy because crude is north of 50. alix: at what production do they actually produce a cut? there is a half a million barrel dispute with oil members of the actual level. we spoke with jeff currie. jeff: you would not know until to queue of this -- next year. even the russian production hits a plateau in that january-february time next year. you would not really know into you get into the april-may time period whether anyone will adhere to these agreements. i

what happened overnight was reaffirmation of an understanding that they reached in algiers to cut productionrse, there has been a whole lot of skepticism, and rightly so, among market, especially after the debacle of the freeze efforts that we saw earlier in april. opec could actually get its act together this time. there does seem to be a lot more real determination, and i would say they seem to be more serious this time. there is definitely a u-turn and saudi policy compared with november of 2014 when they took that rather and this decision to let market forces do the rebalancing. what next? i think the market is waiting to see action from the group now. yousef: so who is going to bear the brunt of these cuts? is it just saudi arabia? who else could be on the list here? the is exactly where stumbling block is. who is going to cut back? i think therein, to my mind, lies the weakest possible hurdle -- biggest possible hurdle to open going to solve -- two opec pulling this off. the reason for a lot of cynicism in the market, opec discarded a few years ago the individual member country cortez

ofbia and iraq those countries will have limits and have to scale back some production under that algiersl. of course, i ran is a winner as we see it right now. the deal still has to be finalized by the time opec goes to its meeting in november where they will set the individual country quotas and we will see if the deal holds and can go ahead. that is coming up at the end of november. youssef: we have heard a lot about this oil contract that iran has been working on in terms of its format and framework. today, talked as through the significance. anthony: this will be a positive step for iran. this is a contract that had been contested in the country. we are heading into elections where the current president will be running for reelection. he is staking his claim on the benefits you can get from the nuclear deal. there was a lot of contest between those backing rouhani .nd other hardliners the fact that a contract is being signed after the oil ministry did make some improvements, and got backing for that -- the fact that that is now being signed should be a sign to investors including for

before algiers and in instabul.oday, we'll have another consultation. >> you see another go, but looking at russia's track record in terms of living up to pledges, it has not been stunner. why would it work this time? >> you have yourself from president vladimir putin here at the energy congress a firm commitment at the highest level of government, so he is an able minister then has been in the north and has been with us, walking side-by-side, shoulder to shoulder, so we are confident. >> the markets we have gone on are still in question. if opec cuts reduction, it does not solve the problem, they need to cut production. i am talking at least 2%. we see all prices going higher. long-term for prices will have to reach a sustainable level which i believe will be above $60 to allow shale production to continue because all is maxed out, opec cannot produce more oil, so global demand needs to increase, therefore, they will be back. the question is when. >> when opec has been effective, it is because saudi arabia. do they

last weekend, at these meetings in vienna, people were talking about how only three countries in the algiersons were given possible limits or possible ways out. iraq wasn't one of those. that was iran, libya, and nigeria. that is going to be a continuing issue going on this week and through the end of the month. manus: and everybody will be chasing various ministers at that juncture. thank you so much for joining us this morning. anthony dipaolo, our senior energy reporter in dubai. let's try and pull some of these trends together. paul is a senior economist at emirates nbd. when you+++ about oil and the pervasive story that it is, around $50, you've that morocco reporting, egypt with issues around the cost of their energy. put oil in context for me with the region. not about the saudi's. not about the main producer. the ramifications in the region. >> the region is an oil-based economy. a lot of researchers like to split up the region into oil exporters and oil importers. when it comes down to it, 90% of this region benefits when oil prices are high. i mean that in the sense that egypt, leb

when you alluded to with regards to the opec strategy and what we saw last week in algiers, it wasn't game changer. it didn't change our views going forward in any meaningful way. the amount that we are looking at, opec is producing about 33.2 in september. we are looking at around 32.5 to 33. for us, that is less than what saudi typically reduces. angie: we're going to leave it there. we've run out of time. thank you. deutsche in the doldrums. how a market bounceback hasn't saved it from the anger of the german government. this is bloomberg. ♪ angie: deutsche bank has been under fire from the german government on job losses. angela merkel's deputies say deutsche built its business on speculations. shares rebounded strongly on friday. what does this say about what investors are focusing on? >> it clearly shows that short-term, everybody is focused on the fines. the renowned on friday came on the back as a report that they were going to sell. that showed a little bit where investor expectations are. they've still got to resolve that one with the doj. they also have the russian scandal

more than a third of the cartel stands outside the deal agreed in algiers last month. none mother russia is also reluctance to cut. beleaguered deutsche bank is considering not paying bonuses in cash and a bid to boost castable -- capital and investor confidence. they have formally discussed heading out shares into non-core ,nits in that of cash rewards replacing money with deutsche stock. latervisory board meets wednesday, although no final decision is expected. the pound rallied after the bank --england governor flagged played down the impact of stimulus. he sets that she said policymakers do not want the currency to fall too far. fallen 18% today. an image rate hike is also weighing on its fortune. carney also signaled that chances of a further boe rate cut are diminishing. >> that judgment is a judgment about the optimal trade-off. it is a judgment we have to make , and there are limits to our willingness to look through and overshoot that inflation. >> global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is

. >> algiers, no one expected the algiers agreement. can't get together, opec is dysfunctional, we could sell off going into november 30th and sub 40 if they don't get this done. >> i'm shocked that an opec member would lie about their production. thank you very much. >>> with a little more than an hour left in trading, not just today but in the month of october, you want to make an october deal, an hour left. the month will be the worst month for stocks since january. like, nine months ago, tyler. >> and it was bad. >> it was not good. the trading nation team will tell us what to expect. this woman owns this house, with new cabinets from this shop, with handles designed here, made here, shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits to this woman, with new cabinets. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured. remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our custom

straight after the positive talks in algiers, the oil analysts came out to make a big deal between theces, which is what the rest of the debt plans to use to set the base line. and what iraq is saying its own production is. now they have a series of reports from the main agencies that produce the secondary sources in baghdad over the weekend to essentially tell them off, to tell them to correct their production figures to increase them to the levels the iraqi officials are putting out. but nobody in the market really agrees with those numbers that baghdad is putting out. so i think there's going to be some difficulty behind the scene between now and the 30th of november to try to get baghdad seemingly from the same sheet as the other producers, if not being very positive about this, at least about quieting down about the production levels. >> that's really where russia comes in. we have heard the comments coming from mr. putin, but then we heard the ceo of the biggest oil producer in russia saying, no, to an output deal. how does russia make sure that some of its biggest energy produce

and opec cut production in algiers. but there's a lot of concern that i saw with the russian oil minister and others from opec that actually they are going to put the meat on the bones of a deal. so potentially that is the oil price story, which has been so brilliant for most of the last six months. again, it will just fall apart a little bit. and is that going to become a little more scary for the bull market traders. >> you have a witch behind you. let me give you a witch of a trade, though. this one has been sterling down over 6% as brexit fears have really circled around this stock, around this trade i should say. it's taking a pounding over the course on the back of the brexit vote. but there was release last week. 0.5% is the number. we are short-lived so the currency is going back in the opposite direction the media reports. mark carney could resign. the next catalyst is the inflation report later this week, but the central bank is seeing haunting rates at this particular meeting. no matter the side of trade you'

the informal talks come hot on the heels of the algiers agreement to cut global production.eting here or we are on the sidelines of the meeting. it is a backdrop of what is an abundance of oil on the market. we have talked about why opec's meeting on the sidelines to take out some of the oil from the market. let us get some additional perspective. we will see how some of the global firms are faring in this environment. we are joined by lorenzo simonelli. what are you doing to protect your bottom line? prices are still in the lower range. >> prices are in the lower range. what we have been focused on in ge is what is good for our customers. we want to make sure they have the productivity and solutions necessary to go forward. we are focused on standardization of our products. we have been restructuring and taking out discretionary expenses. we're focused on innovation to provide better capabilities for our customers using digital tools. an industrialuced operating system that allows us to utilize data and provide analytics and prognostics that can reduce unplanned downtime. t

the opec deal reached in algiers last week the first since '08 included modest oil outpouts. >> and santos is trying to save a peace deal with a rebel group in colombia. santos announced the appointment of a team of senior government officials to launch talks with the opposition in hopes of upholding the out kochl four years of intense peace negotiations. the colombian peso has slid 2019 days since the referendum. let's bring in emerging market strategist at legal and general investment management. good morning. let's talk about colombia. this came as a surprise to investors. investors clearly do not like uncertainty. is there any hope that another deal comes through here, a reason for investors to get confident on colombia. >> the colombia side of me tells me yes there's hope and this has been going on for decades. people have suffered so much that there's clearly very much hope out there. if you listen to the farc, the arguments they brought forward trying to find a solution, they've done four years of work and i think they will find a solution. >> if anything it serves a reminder not al

a serving called enemy cease, -- -- these are obituaryies whom predeceased bill, and people like algier hawaii, and john lindsey and a spectrum of awfulness. and arthur lessinger. eleanor roosevelt, and the fun is seeing bill struggle to find something nice to say about people or alternatively, not bothering. and one last word about this. these are pieces that were often written on deadline and in situations where the writer himself, because hell knew 33 of the 52 people, was himself often racked with guilt -- grieve is what i mend to say. he was himself mourning these people, in many cases. and that he put together such brilliant prose, lyrical prose, about these people whom he permanently knew. when he was himself suffering from grief at their loss. speaks a lot to his discipline. he was man of devout faith, as we all know and that is the eulogy which i believe is technically not part of the catholic mass. bell ven rated something call the patri moany, the inherited corpus of truth, earth and celestial, peaces down through the millenia and which are inarguable and conservatives believ

first, the opec ministers discussed in algiers followed by youscussion in istanbul if days ago.he target is important -- but as important as that would be the country allocations. which country will do what in order to reach the target. that is the first question. the second question which is more important is as a result of the cuts or the freeze if it is successful, we will see an upward pressure on the prices. and this upward pressure on the price is would stimulate some high producers to increase their production such as the u.s. shale oil. a timetable of six months to one year that the u.s. shale would push back on production. and there are some significant producers like china where production is going down significantly enough because of the oil price and they may well lived the production prospects higher. on the production side, there which some consequences are not necessarily in line of the current thinking. specifically, higher prices may demandsh down the week for oil now. million of.2 estimates. this may be weaker. as a result of these two factors, namely, high yie

meeting in algiers this weekend turned out to be a big flop. it is really opec's fault. they were raising expectations they might be able to seal a deal to come out with specific numbers on a production cut, with opec and non-opec countries. they couldn't do it, iraq was mainly a stumbling block. they were trying to convince opec they were pumping a lot more oil than they wanted to get credit for. we saw gold go up, a little bit of fear on scary holiday trading day. phil, thank you. melissa: thank you. >> thank you. david: wall street seeing a stripping of megamergers $25 million bid for baker hughes. centurylink's $34 billion bid for level 3 communications. a small part of a historic october, which has seen over $300 billion worth of big business deals. lido isle advisors and james freeman of "the wall street journal." jason what i'm thinking, people in wall street are believing that eventually rates are going to go up. it will not be as cheap to borrow money. get it while you can, right? >> exactly. cost cutting is the order of the day, and you took the words right now

cartel algiers, the oil agreed to cut production but they didn't really have any details.y did not decide which country or how much each country would cut by. apparently they are making progress on that agreement but have not yet reached a final deal. nymex crude down 2%. this was before the headlines came out. we will continue to break into these -- cover these breaking stories for you. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: we are continuing to monitor the headlines after the fbi sent a letter to congress saying it is looking into new e-mails related, or in an unrelated case that could be linked to the previous investigation into hillary clinton her use of a private e-mail server. the white house has now offered a comment. what we know is that they say they are not in a position to second-guess the fbi's work on hillary clinton. "the new york times" has reported that the e-mails here are not from hillary clinton's server, but from anthony weiner's cell phone. anthony weiner was married to one of hillary clinton's closest advisers. matt: did they not just very recently split up? o

is the one the crack that is more unexpected in the sense that we saw the documents in algiers, iraqind that is what we were discussing. our assumption was that it would be part of the formula. but they came out and said explicitly we are not going to cut, we need the additional revenue. that seems like a reasonable argument. but it leaves them in a pickle. what exactly do they do to find additional barrels? how do they maintain their credibility going into next month? where exactly are those cuts going to come from? we put a story out this morning showing, this is what the math looks like. they have to carry the burden of those cuts. in terms of russia, they have been flip-flopping for the last month, and arguably for the last couple decades. not wholly surprising. i don't think anyone was really holding onto the idea that russia would make a cut. we are just getting news out of riaa, a russian publication. russia may weigh oil output costs in talks. what does it mean for the oil price going forward? are we range bound for the for siebel -- it seems to be the way analysts are seeing

together within a week of securing major output concessions from saudi arabia at the opec talks in algiersis facing the 18th major storm this year with yvonne: typhoon java watering southern islands. flights.anceled japan has suffered this abysmal late-summer weather and consumer spending may have been hit. jpmorgan says car registration fell last month. has thrown down the gone on to spacex, saying it gauntlet to spacex , saying it will win the race. it was responsible for the first stage of the mighty saturn five, the most powerful rocket ever built, which ultimately fired craft to thepace tha man. it is sending shudders through markets around the world. kathleen hays is onset. the fed president is talking about it. >> let us put this in perspective. threea mester, one of the , said the market and economy are right that ebay tight even now, even in december. that is not what the markets were expecting. jeff zucker times and today -- .eff lacker chimes in today inflation is rising, jobs are growing. unemployment holding in at 4.9%. the fed, he said, needs to act now to prevent it from get

just covering some of what they had in terms of their shorts because of the production deal back in algiersis exactly the question to ask. it is difficult to overstate just how dramatic the swing in speculative positioning once. we saw net longs on brent and options.es and the most popular contracts surged by a record 142 million, which is amazing. does this show oil investors becoming more bullish on the fundamental prospects for crude, or does that mean they just were covering their short positions, bets against the price of oil? there weree, we know a few uncovered positions in the market around october 4, the last available data. the question is, now that we have had that big swing, whether or not there is still scope for additional short covering in the market, the severe severity of the swing would suggest that is a difficult and to ask for right now. , give us a sense of what you are digesting coming out of istanbul. where does saudi stand? is he getting everything he wants? tracy: a lot of oil traders have been looking at what has happened in terms of speculative positioning, saying

70% sinceare now up the opec meeting in algiers, so we think there has been some real impact, and thewhen putin said russia might be willing to join in -- the saudi minister expects more non-opec countries to take effect. only have seen over the past few it's that most people think the rally cannot go much higher than the 50's, that there will be this cap around 60, because that is the level when shale comes back to play. what is very clear is that shale producers slumped to make businesses leader. the ceo came to london and said there are areas in some parts which are producing profitably at $40 per barrel, and that will be a key factor. guy: but with mean in terms of the wti/brent spread? in the lastimpact year has been the lifting of the ban on exports out of the u.s. that has been a huge change in oil markets. we are seeing almost one million barrels per day of u.s. oil leaving to match with different refineries. guy: they give very much.will kennedy . up next, a showdown in sin city. the final debate ended just a few hours ago in las vegas. will break down the applications, next.

pirates from four islamic nations, morocco, algiers, tune is, tripoli., our merchants were help lis and vulnerable at sea. they turned the crews into their slaves. american ships, well they were easy targets. creating a crisis that put our economy on the verge of collapse. congress tasked two future presidents to come up with a deal. john adams and thomas jefferson. they met with the tripoli ambassador face to face. the a.m. bass does was unkromsing and demanded money for passage. according to the quran it was their god given right. they didn't have a deal on the prisoners and they didn't have a deal on safe passage for a merchant ship. back in the united states, they waited for a recommendation. that's where adams and jefferson split. adams said, you can't fight them unless we want to fight them forever. for jefferson, says you can't pay for peace. he sensed that the attacks would start and the price would only go up. in this case, jefferson was 100% correct. the united states caved to the pirates, borrowing money costing them up to 20% of the entire na

what happened in doha and what happened in algiers? completely separate countries getting together and coming to an agreement. why should we believe the individuals who got together in algiers can do something when the very same people got together in delhi and could not? jeff: i think the big difference between april and late october is the financial conditions within these countries. ityou look at saudi arabia, indicates a much more dire situation than april. that is what i would argue is motivating the rhetoric with trying to come up with a deal. thinking about the economics today versus april, nothing has changed. the strategy of pursuing market shares still would be the dominant strategy rather than try to run a cartel, because it does not change the fact that the shale producer in the u.s. will respond to higher prices. you are seeing it in the drilling activity in the permian basin so why would argue that economic motivations have not changed. alix: something that has changed is russia, at first coming out and saying they are in

they are trying to firm up that agreement that they had back in algiers.be when you're some production quotas, may be additional details, but a very important opportunity after the formal meeting in vienna in november. anna: yousef gamal el-din joining us with the latest on oil. to recordway will act spending of the oil income next year, withdrawing cash from the $890 billion fund. anna: full details of the 2017 but it will be released at 9 a.m. u.k. time team leaderrdic jonas bergman joins us on the phone from oslo. have you read the oil pricing to be easing a little bit for the norwegian economy. what are we going to see today? how that play out in today's news? jonas; good morning. yes, norway has been hit hard over the past years in the oil plunge, but the finance minister already this morning let it slip that the budget next year will be a little less stimulative next year, as the economy looks to survive the oil shock relatively well. but of course, the tighter budget in norway, one of the world's richest country is very relative. we will find out a

when you look at the algiers agreement, how confident are you that opec will actually go hrough cuts,s they promised and how does that rebound the oil market? what happens at with energy, essentially three things. minimal cut. minimal, less than 1% of the of oil.oduction second, who is going to cut and decided on will be the third day of november. third, the other play here, continues to pump the maximum level, almost at the ever. and has said nothing on what do.s going to one might conclude that. in effect this is my view. a lot has happened because there change of whole strategy. lso iran, also iraq, the biggest player. essentially we can summarize by market share is important. this has been a dramatic change. remember a time when somebody was saying that even at $20, e're good enough for some countries. $45. not even libya an nigeria restore output, how much is the challenge for saudi arabia increased by? libya and nigeria we might expect more. view there is a consensus including the u.s. to bring e prices to a level say around $55, which are still not too for the world, but is hig

francine: but the opec accord last week in algiers must have helped a little bit, right, with inflations? or is that just at the margins? michael: it pushes up very near-term expectations. that should feed through into cpi in the coming months. but it also does help sentiment that oil is not going down to 30. that has been a concern in the market, that while the core remains fairly stable, as it picks up, investors might lose on a position oil continues to go down. that brings the headline weight down. that negative sentiment seems to be abating in the market. that is helping out sentiment. francine: at the same time, we see the boj doing more, trying to cap 10 year yields. is anything like that going to help with inflation, or should they abandon their target? michael: again, it is willingness versus ability. central banks seem to be convincing markets that they are willing to do what it takes. you look at the actions taken in japan or by the ecb or the fec and the uk, and they are doing more and more. convinced that what they are doing is going to work. a bigger announcement by the ba

ramy: looking at oil, we were talking about the algiers supplies.--i crude rising rising there. what do you look for in terms of indicators here? the meeting was definitely a surprise. most were not expecting a potential deal. if they do now agreed to go create upwardd pressure on prices. we could see a moderate recovery and the remainder of the year. ramy: looking ahead to december, we are looking at a potential fed rate hike. i want to show you what has been happening in terms of the chances here. 2864.s #btv -- what datang at are you watching the most and what you are -- and what are you expecting will dictate the movement? carlos: the fed, during the last meeting, decided to keep rates unchanged. that will have implications on central-bank policies and other areas. if the fed raises rates in december, what is the first ripple effect that might happen over in asia? carlos: asian emerging markets have benefited from liquidity and low interest rates overseas. that is what makes it into search for yield strategies and spurs capital inflows into most

iraq may not be willing to cut as much as some of the original notes from the algiers meeting had anticipatede are a lot of questions. we may get some range bound market over the next couple weeks because people are afraid to take a position or have too much conviction. david: that's andrew cosgrove joining us from new jersey. vonnie: let's check out the headlines on the bloomberg's "first word" news. president obama has declared a state of emergency in florida, whose coastlines are under the cross hairs of hurricane matthew. the white house says the order authorizes the department of homeland security and fema to coordinate disaster relief efforts. the storm has strengthened to a category four with maximum miles perwinds at 140 hour. matthew is expected to make landfall in florida, then turn north and pass just off the south carolina coast late tomorrow or early saturday. the storm is being blamed for more than 100 deaths in the caribbean. hillary clinton holds a slim lead over donald trump in florida. 41% to 38% inrump the survey. libertarian gary johnson has 6%. green party's jill stein ha

remember, when the news broke from algiers, one of the headlines was that opec seeks cooperation with that could be the caveat that takes this deal off the table. if we don't hear at the end of november or anything out of this congress next week about the deal, we could see prices potentially go much lower from here. it comes to the supply and demand situation, still not that much has changed. remember, rig counts went up today because the prices are higher. back to you. >> jackie, thank you very much. >>> and we're two days away from the second presidential debate. different format. john harwood joins us from washington. the format is going to be one of the telltales. who manages it better, right, john? >> it will be a challenge. the talk show format, the town hall format is more informal, engaging directly with voters. hillary clinton has had more practice with that than donald trump has. and there is a lot of pressure on donald trump, he's behind in the race, he got a breather from mike pence with that solid performance on tuesday night, but donald trump needs to turn things around

energy minister and the opec secretary general about this production freeze that was announced in algiersw, the russians have been cordial and said they would cooperate but they've said that before. the question now is if they will get in on this. and also, if they don't, if opec will move forward with that freeze as scheduled at the end of november. now, remember, you've also got the iraqis, they're saying we don't want to be involved in a production freeze. we're just ramping up. there's a lot of reasons that the market is not believing opec right now. and of course you are seeing energy prices a little bit lower but holding over 50, so far the session low 50.08. back to you. >> thank you very much, jackie. when we come back a lot to talk about with john legere, the ceo of t-mobile in a first on cnbc interview, the stock hitting multi-year highs today above $50. dow is up 118 for the best gain since late september. we're back after a break. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to

citizens' claims against iran that were registered under the algiers accords have also been resolved and americans as a result by us doing that have gotten about -- what is it? about $2.5 billion in payments? >> i don't know the total but to my knowledge they've all been paid. >> and the record should be clear about that that this was a smart deal done utilizing leverage that you had, you have leverage, you don't give it up, you utilize it. that was done by the administration and the fact of the matter is i like to say it was something nobody else did, it was unique, but other administrations have done the same thing, democrats and republicans, is that not correct? >> settling outstanding claims? >> that's right. >> yes, this is not a new phenomenon. it obviously is a new conversation. for decades we haven't had an ability to have a conversation with iran to settle this and we faced the possibility of an enormous judgment against the united states. so let me go back to what we're talking about in the time i have that left and that is dealing, which is fsoc. because fsoc, which was cr