we have an oil minister. >> you went to algiers and you are here in siena.was a difference in those meetings? >> there has been a growing consensus that something needs to be done. for the first time in eight years, this is not a minor achievement. the general political mood expressed through i think a historic declaration, but we had to work on the technicalities of what the exactnd responsibility of each country was going to be. this is what we have achieved now. we have achieved a 4.45% .eduction of opec countries as purdue much a 1.2 million daily reduction, which i think is historic and hopefully will restore stability to the market. what we are hoping for is stability and to stop these nefarious cycles of boom and bust which are bad for exporters and producers. ifwill the deal stands non-opec opec members failed to agree on the 600,000 barrel a day cuts? >> this is what we have been working on. you guys have been reporting on it. we wanted to be something we do altogether. there have been a lot of consultations and i think the to takes expecting opec a

al falih that they were confident of the deal, and hit the bottom end of the range from algiers, and it would be a deal with longevity, lasting for a year with reviews throughout as well. this from a plan who said a from a plan who said if he walked away from a deal, the markets would rebound on their own. an extra 1.5 million barrels coming on to the market any way. very interesting, they're not sitting back, still moving aggressively to get this deal. then i had a conversation with mr. bijan zangeneh, not so much a nemesis but sitting on the other side of the divide. we asked him specifically what iran would offer in terms of levels, possibly freezing or a k cut as well. let's listen in to what mr. zangeneh had to say. >> we had discussion. it's better not to say more. it may damage to our discussion. >> would iran take a timeline for participation in a deal? would it be six months? one year just to rebalance the market? >> yes, we are going to discuss and finalize something for six months and to be extended for one year. we think during these six months and one year it's very impo

. >> as opec, we remain committed to the algiers accord.urorsit together in all -- in algiers and remain committed to its implantation. ryan air says second-quarter earnings rose 8%. profit over tax increase to 912 million euros in the three months since september. it served a record number of passengers during the summer. the volkswagen supervisory board chairman has been added to a german probe of the company's emissions standard -- scandal. the prosecutor's office had extended its investigation for market manipulation. meanwhile, a newspaper has reported that u.s. testers found software to cheat air-quality tests in audi cars. an audi spokesman declined to comment. that is your bloomberg business flash. vw 12 keep an eye on in the open, but it will be hsbc , posting a beat for the third quarter, as pretax profit rose 7% from a year ago. shares have jumped for the most in two months in hong kong, trailing a new view from the u.k. regulator as it frees up billions which increase the bank's capital ratio. we are joined live from hong kong.

if opec countries do not implement their algiers resolution, the resulting production cuts will see the market move from surplus to der. deficit quickly in 2017, according to the ia's latest market report. it adds that october's global oil supply rose by 0.8 million barrels a day year on year. joining us is neil atkinson at the ia. talk us through some of the highlights and how we should be understanding this message. it means we need to push through with some of these latest promises. >> well, the central message is that we're fairly clear where we stand as far as world oil demand growth is concerned next year. we're fairly clear about the picture for nonopec production. the missing piece of the jigsaw currently is what opec intens to do with its own low production. we have the upcoming meeting on november 30th in vienna where we will get our answer. essentially what the ia is saying is that unless opec does cut production at the vienna meeting, which it signaled it intends to do, or at the algiers meeting it intends to do, it's difficult to see how the oil market can balance in 2017.

i mean, i think the fact that we had the algiers announcement in late september, which did have, you know, iran and saudi and other countries in the group on board saying let's try and get production down below 33 million barrels a day, the last couple months were really intended to just finalize the details so that there could be an agreement announcement wednesday, and that's still a possibility. we're definitely not ruling out that they can cross the bridge of divisions between the two countries, but it is looking a bit more difficult than it was, you know, two weeks ago, even a week ago. and i think what's happened is whilst the iranians haven't budged much, the saudis feel they have made compromises. they are, you know, now seeing countries like iraq, iran last week, really trying to push them for more, and it's getting beyond what they're willing to do. so, the negotiation stance on both sides has hardened, and the question is can they compromise over the next couple days or will we actually see all these efforts fall through? >> again, important to point out to people that the

if you look to algiers, the market got it wrong again. what is the market expecting?t does that price reflect? ?a deal or no deal? shaia: we have the canadian wildfires, a number of outages in nigeria. so, i think that lent a lot of support to the notion that oil prices went from $26, to the 50's. one of the thing that is interesting -- of the things that is interesting about the cartels and opec is that it is difficult to tell sometimes whether it is policy regarding price or price driving policy. so, the rhetoric tends to get a when you getntense to the 50's and high 40's and then it comes back up in the low 40's. the market is expecting something in the region of half a million a day if we come out with a no accord. that could put concern into the market place because it says it there is no consensus between the member states. to work oute trying what this means for inflation. it seems as if inflation was getting a boost by the rebound we have seen this year in the oil prices. we were heading back up to that $50 range and hanging around there for a while. there is

dealat was that algiers except for a headline without any kind of specific detail and volatility? so now, you need to get down to details. how much are the gcc members of opec going to cut? if they are going to cut something meaningful, between the four of them, then that will have an impact most of everything else is frankly peripheral. marketst quarter oil takes 2000 barrels a day off the market. >> how peripheral is the impact of non-opec nations. non-opec production actually outpacing opec production. we might get an agreement in vienna but how much does it matter if russia doesn't agree to cut rather than freeze? , thathe non-opec part would be icing on the cake. we are at today's meetings between opec delegations were canceled last thursday is because they want able to fix the cake just yet. so bake that cake. the rigly, you can see count is at the highest in several months, and continuing to rise. do we see many more bankruptcies or is the bottom in? jan: the short answer to the output is higher. we have routinely and consistently underestimated what the industry is capable

this was agreed in algiers. of this inso part algiers.ya and nigeria will be exempt again as their countries have dealt with so much external strife -- internal strife. a will be exempt from a cut. however, the saudis will not budge on iran. vonnie: it is a gesture. they want iran and iraq to hold together opec nations? >> in the 10 hour talks yesterday with the governors, not the ministers, there was talk of the saudis proposing the iranians cut -- they only produce 3.7 million barrels a day. the iranians say they should pump pre-sanction levels of 4 million a day that it is the will of the people to get back to pre-sanctioned levels. it is a 7% difference that the saudis want them to cut. this comes down to political baggage to be honest. vonnie: thank you. keeping an eye on the opec cummings and goings. ahead, we are joined from the robin hood investors complex. everything from marriott lying starwood hotels to expectations for the u.s. economy under president-elect donald trump. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: vonnie: a lovely shadow we

to recap algiers, they agreed to cut production.ome perspective, the output for october was 33.6 million barrels , so not quite there yet. it looks like the saudi's are split with iran and iraq. insisting restoring output to pay sanctions level, 4 .illion barrels for them to cut more, and that's what opec wants them to do, cut below 4 million barrels a day. that will be a hard sale. , so notl cut output clear how much they are prepared to cut. it's key that these countries were together in order to get a tangible deal. >> got you. on the phone from vienna. china has been quietly hiking borrowing costs through pboc operations that reinforces the view that beijing has moved away from monetary stimulus. we have our corporate finance reporter right here. how has the pboc been doing this? is lengthening the terms of the money market operations, cutting the seven-day reverse repo operations and injecting funds through 14 day and 28 day contracts. financingnger-term with higher funding costs. that is how the pboc effectively tight 25 basis

saudi arabiathink has realized they may have acted too quickly in algiers. play a little bit of hardball. they are trying to force -- i think they want to get iraq to be measured externally. they need to have some sort of external verification of a third party source. the other issue is setting a cap with iran. that is important for saudi arabia. the biggest enemy of opec for the last few years has been opec itself. production with in the cartel has increased significantly from the 2014 lows. unless they can restrain their production that it could be a problem on the saudi arabia side. so, the elements are very important. they need to have third-party verification, and they need to have iran commit to a number. they can get that, then i think it in russia to go along will be much easier. julie: francisco, that brings me to russia. we have a chart on the bloomberg of russian production compared to saudi arabia production. their production is higher. it has been higher for a few years, although the gap is now whitening even further. even further. does russia n

controls up to 40% of global oil supplies, will actually come forth with the deal they promised us from algiersn september, i.e., to cut production to 1 million barrels a day. it's the old questions that still remain, will the likes of iran and iraq get an exemption or forced to take a cut, as well, in order to get a unanimous decision throughout the grouping. i spoke to one oil minister, the minister for the uae, and he said it needs to be man news. there can't be compensations to participation in a round of cuts. >> the expectation that if we own something, we would like to agree on something that is always sustainable and that benefit everyone. and also get everyone participating. but don't ask me how, who, and when before we meet. >> reporter: the concern is that the king pin of opec, saudi, would just walk away if they don't get cuts from all members, including iraq and iran. these are some of the big questions that remain for the market with the oil price falling around 4% on tuesday. as traders got very nervous about the prospects of a cut. where the oil price will go if there isn't a cu

vonnie: it was originally brokered in algiers, at least it looked like it would be.ther it does or not, i'm sure the oil minister with love for it to be known as the algiers oil agreement. bloomberg will be all over it. coming up, we are back to black friday sales. this is bloomberg. ♪ beautiful but a little cloudy .here in san francisco beautiful shot right let's start with headlines on the bloomberg first word news this afternoon. we will go to our newsroom. the prime minister of hungary says he will no longer be considered a black sheep in the isaiah washington. he says president-elect donald trump has invited him to visit. he became the first european leader to publicly back trump. two trains collided in north iran. helicopters and ambulances rushed the injured to the hospital. the accident occurred in subzero temperatures when a passenger another that stopped at a train station about 150 miles east of tehran. more than 70 people were killed in a car bombing at a gas station in iraq, about 65 people were also injured in the attack. islamic state militants are cla

to make any going agreements like they had in algiers. we have a kind of followed trilogy in the last 24 hours -- a kind of -- volatility in the last 24 hours, incredible. anna: iron ore falling from its two-year highs. 2016 quite good for the chinese commercial construction story and that was good for steel. things looking different. met trend. he concern about demand from china and the overall supply outlook. 2/5 of 1%.up anna: let us get the bloomberg first word news. here is haidi lun. >> former goldman sachs partners mnuchin is donald trump choice for treasury secretary. trump plans to nominate wilbur and as commerce secretary, an announcement on the selections could come as soon as today. it donald trump lands to continue his auditions for secretary of state, according to a person familiar with the transition. he will bring back john kelly for a follow-up interview at trump tower in new york today. romney,candidate, mitt had a second meeting with the president elect at a dinner last night. european council president donald tusk has

doha failure earlier this year, algiers, a degree of success in september. when the market didn't think there was going to be a deal, it was around 43 bucks. when they thought, yes, we'll get up to 53, so sitting at 48, i think we're beautifully priced for a move in either direction. a binary decision. the problem is, of course, the market will not get a binary decision. the market would love to hear there will be a big cut or we're not going to have a cut. the market can make a clear decision on that. i think we'll get something muddier, opaque, and if saudi can get allies to cut or a freeze, then we'll see, but the devil is in the detail, the quota, if there is a deal, that will be difficult. we had wonderful kenshow data looking at cuts over the last eight years. it's difficult to see the market gaining on the back of a cut unless it becomes clear who is doing what and the longevity of this as well. the question is when do they cut and when do they cut forward? in 2017, a lot of people are saying we need more oil on the market so satiate the growing deman

. >> we at opec, we remain accorded to the algiers we put together. committed to a simple mentation. >> -- committed to its implementation. modi called on britain. may said she was willing to look at some aspects of the visa. china has called on the international committee to -- theits ruling intervention came after two local lists refused to take oath to the leaders of beijing. a decision could spark further unrest in the city. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: investors are pricing in after one of the most divisive u.s. presidential campaigns in recent memory. the final poll showing clinton leading 44-41. haidi: it was conducted before james comey said clinton should not face criminal charges related to her use of her personal e-mail server when she was secretary of state. rishaad: let's go to new york. let's take a look at the market reaction. what is the thinking? >> you might think it is because stocks are democratic and bonds are republican. a little j

we have hard numbers in algiers and that is what they are talking about, that is still the framework,e a good idea of who will do what. francine: is it a short-term agreement? >> this is something they will discuss today, either six months or a year. francine: is this disappointing? better than nothing but at the same time, we said this was the host important meeting since 1973, is it? >> it has the potential to somewhat deliver but if the market is responding in this way , $50, 60 dollars a barrel for this year or next year that changes dynamics in the market, s&p 500 energy companies earn more and the emerging markets which rely on these exports will do better and rush is a great example. we had some changes -- russia is a great example. francine: talking about donald trump's appointments next. , donaldp, goldman sachs trump has said to have named steven mnuchin as treasury secretary, that story coming up. ♪ ♪ francine: that it was on the move white house --steven mnuchin is the choice for u.s. treasury secretary according to people familiar and they say trump plans to nominate wilb

the market is seeing that as increasing risk that they will in out to implement that geez -- algiers. lotu said there of head scratching. why are the opec members so aggressive? are they based on an average in that average is a higher average? what is it in terms of this move? onhony: the good money is the fact that they are trained to get themselves to eight high point, they are going from a high level, so these countries, the opec individual members are at a level that brings in foreign currency. of course, we don't know what the opec terms are yet, whether they are going to take an average, take a specific month, and this is something that opec does not determine for itself. they held a meeting last month that was meant to work out some of those problems. they are going to meet later month. decide who to cut and at what levels and where we're going to get in the in -- in the end. manus: anthony, thank you for joining us. -- it sawn oil prices its biggest drop since july as traders assess the possibility of a donald trump presidency. white house in january. welcome to the show. what

the optimism has slipped since algiers. we are seeing it start to come on again. we have to look slightly longer-term year. the deal on the table is apparently six months. we have to look beyond that and say what is going to happen once that has expired? is that laid the ground for a deal or is that just delaying an increase in production? what are you going to be watching. i think it is 10 more days before we get to november 30? maybe a bit longer. what are you watching until the big meeting in vienna? john: iraq and iran. we know the opec secretary-general this weekend -- she was in iraq last month, all of the diplomacy going on and, as i said, these are the two countries that might not be in line with the rest of opec. iran said it is not going to cut production. it may freeze production, but only at its own reported levels, which are higher than those opec acknowledges. iraq is the country to watch at the moment. arabia and the group and torpedoed the deal last april when iran had an exemption. lot movingnitely a parts. symbol can, our jet setting energy repor

chatter has been positive in the sense that they made that deal in algiers.culty,ing that's correct, maintaining that and getting from that initial positive talk of making a cut to getting to the final deal. that is where the pickups are in the is will always be the biggest hurdles in terms of making a deal, getting people to agree on what the specific cuts will be. that is the real negative aspects coming out of this, that they have not been able to assign individual quotas and the negative comments we have heard, people wanting exemptions like a and iran, which will have big impacts on production. gathering have the and then we are on the road after that and off to another destination areas in terms of the majors and the cuts they are making to -- are they reinvesting? makescisions that exxon -- are we inching closer to a rebalancing? anthony: the common consensus is we are moving closer to a rebalancing. that comes from opec and the producers in the market. there is a since we are moving to a rebalancing. what people are not so clear about, when is that ha

the market has been sort of -- the optimism has slipped since the algiers meet.re was a big spike in optimism. we're seeing it start to we'reo come on again. but we have to look slightly longer term here. the deal on the table is apparently six months. we have to look beyond that and say, what is going to happen is expired?al does that lay the ground for a longer deal, or is that actually just delaying a sort of inevitable increase in production? going to beare you watching? we have -- i think, what is it, more days until we get to november 30? maybe a bit longer. dates anymore.r but what are you watching in the interim, until that bigging vienna?in >> i think the most important thing to watch is the position of iraq and iran going into this. as we know, the opec secretary general, was in iran this weekend. in iraq last month. all this diplomacy is going on. these are the two countries positions might not be in line with the rest of opec. particularly with iraq. has said it's not going to cut production. it may freeze production but levels that are its own report

>> the chatter has been positive in the sense that they did make that deal in algiers.t has already been a bit of positive momentum. the been maintaining that, getting that initial positive talk. that is where the hiccups are. these were always going to be the biggest hurdles in terms of making a deal, getting people to agree on what the specific cuts would be. that's the real -- the negative kind of aspects coming out of this, that they have not been able to assign individual quotas, and the negative comments we have heard coming out about people not agreeing, not wanting to cut, wanting exceptions like iraq and iran, which are really big producers that will have an impact on the group's overall production. >> in terms of the majors in the cuts they are making to, is the market rebalancing? the investment decisions call deadly mix, the decision that exxon makes, are we inching closer towards a rebalancing? >> the common consensus is we are moving towards the rebalancing. that comes from opec and producers in the market. we have this consensus around the fact that we ar

. >> post algiers in december, the oil price got up to $56 a barrel.en there were expectations, the prices go up. i've spoken to the key guys at this meeting, i thought the degree of optimism i heard today compared with the pessimism of the previous three days, the previous 72 hours was outstanding. everyone seemed to be going to great measures to say they can get something done, whatever can be done remains to be seen. what were the big barriers? i asked the saudi oil minister. >> the sticking point has been and continues to be that each and every country will have to agree to the principles that a production constraint agreement bringing us close or at the 32.5 that was adopted in algiers, it will have to be distributed transparently, ek qequatably, a mechanism to monitor to insure full compliance, and then to ensure that non-opec will join in with substantial amount of cut that will add to what opec is offering, the 32.5, it's going to be above 1.2 million. >> he said it has to be transparent, two, they have to contribute 600,000 barrels a day extra

principles that production can strengthen agreement bringing us close or at the 32.5 that was adopted in algiersit will have to be distributed transparently equally, a mechanism to monitor to insure full compliance, and then to ensure that non-opec will join in with substantial amount of cut that will add to what opec is offering, the 32.5, it's going to be above 1.2 million. close to 1.4 based on the latest production volumes. hoping for 600,000 from non-opec. that will be substantial volume that i think will bring health back into the market. >> contributions from elsewhere, not just from the gcc or saudi arabia, but also perhaps a freezing from iran as well, which is one of the big sticking points before this meeting. if they can get 600,000 barrels from nonopec, that's a substantial amount of oil to come off the table and aid in the rebalancing. these are still big questions about who will do it, over what time frame and from what levels they are taking cuts from. many estimates are that from november, production even ramped to 34 million barrels a day to 35 million barrels, to get down to 3

thee remain committed to what we painstakingly put and wer in algiers remain committed to the implementatione are one-time items were 7% from a year earlier and affectedlargest lender the cost-cutting plan. shareare plans to offer a buyback and profits increased through december and beat analyst estimates with a record number of passengers served during the summer. that is your bloomberg business flash. on the u.s. in more elections and hillary clinton did not commit a crime handling her e-mails. here is what candidates have been saying while campaigning. >> right now, she is being protected by a rigged system. review those e-mails in those days. you cannot do it. people is guilty and the know what. it is up to the americans to deliver justice at the ballot box. >> i want us to have an ongoing discussion about how we are all going to contribute to making the country all it should be. i believe that the best years are still ahead of us, if we all do our part. , i think it is fair to say, after all the months of this campaign, my opponent has a dark and divisive view of the country. .> guy joh

we thought opec would try to put a floor under the crude price after the meeting in algiers.has rolled over. wonder how much pressure -- the saudi's turned up, nodded and left. i wonder if they are thinking about doing even more than what they agreed to. david: they did this once, had the effect of bringing the price up, it has drifted back down again. emma: business executives in the u.k. earning the highest salaries o facing a fresh crackdown that theresa may's government will demand more transparency for bonus pay -- may responding to a populist backlash to narrow the gap between wages and the pay of those at the top. big of aive asked how bribe it would take to be doubt a competitor for our nor oresits in guinea -- iron thesits in guinea -- company declined to comment but the accused executive is denying the allegation. volkswagen has reached a landmark agreement with workers to cut as many as 30,000 jobs oblique. the auto maker's plan to save $3.9 billion in expenses as it tries to crawl back from the mission's cheating scandal. the reduced headcount represents nearly 5%

i was in algiers and istanbul, that sense of optimism and confidence that they will be able to come upmething specific at that the anna meeting. is this realistic at all? >> a step back and say this time it doesn't matter if they come to an agreement or not. the reason i think it doesn't matter is how we were talking at the beginning of the program. the fact that president-elect seemednd president putin to be on the best of terms might imply a risk in oil prices. yousef: how much is priced in in terms of an agreement or lack thereof? at $48-$50. >> there is not much movement. it will be a surprise if they do agree, but it's hard to see how. you understand there is a cash flow problem that they have. anna: something you've talked about a lot, various policies in the boardroom and how they the boardroom in the u.k.. you think it's possible to come ceo paya way of vetting that stops annoying people. >> let's start with the obvious. people are not happy with the system. we saw that with brexit and we saw that with president trump. if you look at the u.k., it's very complicated. suggestion.

. >>> let's switch over to oil, algerian energy minister said the deal with algiers has not been called into question after failing to reach an agreement on the e the tails of the plan last month in vienna. they will meet ahead of the opec meeting on november 30th. brent crude recovered lost ground after a week of sharp declines. brent crude is up 1.1% at 46.13. wti crude is up 1.6%. we saw both contracts down roughly 9% respectively last week. hadley gamble is with us. you have been speaking to a number of top oil producer last week. are they still hopeful? >> it sounds that way. i mean, basically what we're speaking about at this oil and gas conference on friday was about climate change and the big question is if you're putting a billion dollars into climate change when you're a multibillion, multinational oil company. it's not that much. what are you looking to do? it was interesting because i did get the chance to speak exclusively with the ceo of saudi ramco, they said this is things we have not done before. and this is more of an economic boon for us rather than a drop in the pan.

they are the two men who sat behind the algiers agreement. comes to doing a deal, it is detail. the market wants to know if they will be cuts and who was going to bear the pain of those cuts. matt: how bearish, manus, is the market on the possibility of a deal? manus: matt, you will like this. we surveyed analysts. 1420 analysts say you will get a deal. seven of those surveyed say you look at actual exacting targets and you need exacting targets because those are the hallmark of opec deals that work . without exacting targets, it cannot have a benchmark. what does opec stand for, everybody? oil producers exempt from cuts. not my words, but what i heard in the alleyway in dohar. back to you. matt: actually, manus, i will take it in berlin. we will continue to monitor those operations. still with us is michael metcalfe from state street global markets. the market is fairly bearish on the possibility of a deal. oil is still falling, but seems to be holding some ground. if we don't get any deals, is it just demand holding up oil here? >> well, th

the big hope after algiers in september would be they would cut up to 1 million barrels a day.p at the last moment before wednesday's meeting, huge question marks remaining about whether there's actually going to happen. the same problems remain that have remained throughout the year. i.e. can re-add saudi arabia and tear on iran and come forward which means that iran either is given exemption or takes part in cuts in production. of course, they have been arguing they want to get market share back. that they lost during sanctions. also question marks about the involvement of iraq. iraq wants an exemptions war, because it's fighting isis in its country. again, saudi playing saying it could potentially walk away from a deal. question marks about whether we need a deal. saudi's oil minister saying the market will rebalance anyway in 2017. yes, the market wants a binary answer, going to cut or not cut and, of course, reprice accordingly. the price of oil. at this moment with crude trading 4% tuesday, big questions remain of whether there will be any form of a deal here in vienna on

in violation of its international obligations under the algiers accord which has been in effect under both republican and democratic administrations. the white house has issued a statement of policy making it clear that the president would veto the bill before us today, stating, quote, the united states has a long tradition of remaining faithful to our commitment to our international partners and reversal of this principle undercuts or credibility and diminishes to lead globally and the alliances in implementing the jcpoa, unquote. we know this would violate the joint comprehensive plan of action that is committed to the sale of commercial planes of iran by prohibiting our financial institutions by acilitying those sales and put manufacturers at a disadvantage whose access to financing would be subject to the same constraint. the legislation is concerning because it removed the president's national security waiverer with regard to the export import bank's. and the never exercised its authority by removing the president's discretion and leverage on critical national security matters wo

last time you have had an agreement out of algiers, it was mr.enen who said, i'm not going to decrease my production. i'm not even going to freeze mine. it's interesting to me that putin said he's in. seche nsaid nothing thus far today. and i not be surprised to see him come out and say he's not in agreement, we're going to produce and let's remember, they're the largest producer in the world. >> so how much risk to the down side is there right now in the price of oil? >> mel, the same thing i've said for the past month and a half. i think it's very difficult to get above $52, because with a $4 contango, that gives you $56 for the one year and every fraccer will make money at that. it's going to be very difficult to get above 52. on the down side, can we see 35 to 38? that's probably as low as we can get it. i have said this before, and i'll say it again. i think we're going to stay within 38 to 52 for a long period of time. and 45 is a very pleasant number for everybody. frackers can make money at that number. most of the middle eastern countrie

algiers, equate -- they're going to monitor the situation. >> exactly. >> dan.k. >> drillers. i think that schlumberger is a great example of a huge component in the xle. the xle is trading at new 52-week highs. schlumberger is one, you go after the large integrated, you go after the drillers and i think that schlumberger looks interesting, a straight shot to 95. but i don't think it changes stocks after days like today when the commodity was up 10% and like you said, euphoria is pretty high. let's see how long this can stick and how these stocks trade. >> think about why this happened at all. it's because saudi arabia has a ton of incentive to see this happen. i said this last night. saudi aram co means if they don't have credibility that trades at a huge discount. these guys have to keep it in line. a 13% budget deficit. a lot of other people that really care. and by the way, russia does too. and when you crank up your production going into this, it makes it very easy to say, i'll do that. >>> the oil wasn't the only thing rising. the fear in extra vix also tr

he remains optimistic over the agreement reached in algiers.anus cranny is our man on the ground from delhi. what is the latest? are they able to build enough diplomatic momentum to set the stage? manus: you certainly get the feeling in the hall that -- in doha that there is diplomacy late into the evening. algerians came in one by one. there were short, brief meetings. the algerian minister and the architect, protagonist, back in september, told us yesterday in the afternoon there is a potential for a new six-month deal on the table, but everybody has got to get behind it. thate problem today is every country has the right to forecast extra capacity. it is the right of every country . today, we are in a group that agreement. an every member country of this organization understands to respect this agreement, including iran. iraq, too. every country, there will be 14 countries that signed an agreement in algeria. it is not one or two countries, it is 14 countries. each of these countries reaffirms its commitment to maintain the agreement on whic

erik: here is one of the problems, the supply picture has gradually improved in the algiers meeting ineptember. knowing the oil market the way that you do, how much would have to be taken out in terms of capacity to drive prices back to $60 on average were a sustained period of time? you look at supply and demand, it is generally in balance. in china,growing europe, and north america. it is about equal. you have tremendous levels of stocks around the world and it will take time to drain them off. if there were cuts, some substantial cuts from opec, that would send a signal that the stocks are being drained. erik: how does donald trump's election affect the global oil market? >> i do not know. it has drifted down in the last few days. normally, production does come up in september and october. i do not know. we will wait and see. he has fashioned himself a champion of the u.s. fossil fuels industry. >> i do not know what will happen. we will just watch and see. the president -- the role of the president is a complex job. and when you get in there and see what it takes to make these big

the supply picture has gradually improved since that algiers meeting in september., how much would have to be taken out in terms of capacity to drive prices back to, say, $60 on average? if you look at supply and demand, it's generally imbalanced right now. ands growing in europe north america. it's about equal, but you have this tremendous level of stock around the world and it will take a long time to drain it off. if there were some substantial cuts, that would send a signal. there's not that much in terms of capacity in the world. how does the trump election affect the global oil market? bob: i don't know. it has drifted down a little bit . i think that is around the opec data numbers. it does come up in september, october. i don't know, we will wait and see. fashioned himself a champion in the u.s. fossil fuels industry and announced himself an opponent of climate deals. bob: i really have no idea. we will just watch and see. president is a very complex job. when you get in there and see what it takes to make some of these big changes in direction, it's not goi

opec has struggled to finalize an agreement reached in algiers in september and 18 hours of talks lastnd in vienna did not bring any further progress to that divide. anna: global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 26 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. let's check in on market action and asia. juliette: we have seen the shanghai composite turn positive on the close up five point one of 1% after declining earlier in trade for most of the trade. we have seen that pick up on the close by when one of 1%. the shanghai composite is in bull market territory. in hong kong in late trade, some coming through. down .4 of 1%. the banking plans have been rising over the st couple of sessions and have been sold out. tencent falling despite the fact revenue third-quarter was quite strong. you have seen a lot of buying casino stocks. third-quarter gdp struggling expected. the nikkei closed flat but the nikkei and the topics still holding on to those nine-month highs but not a lot of movement coming through in that equities market today. australia closed higher

we saw this in algiers and delhi as well. doha asnot happen -- in well. it does not happen. see how the day progresses if the deal is delivered upon. we see volatility spiking when it comes to the oil prices. anyway, that is it for me for now. i will join the bloomberg radio team. our next, it is "surveillance." radio, now in london. ♪ francine: salvaging a deal. opec climbs as iran says will reach an agreement today. the cartel remains divided. we are live for the meeting. testing times for rbs. it fails the toughest ever stress test. mark carney ones that profitability is a long-term problem. carney says the biggest risks are global, underlining the italian referendum, european elections, and china as key threats.

fact that opec countries again appear to not agreeing on this output freeze that they discussed in algiersthe market about. so that's something that could take us lower. now, what you need to dig into in this report is the import number. a lot of traders are watching that closely. those numbers have been low. if they're higher, that's contributing probably to the build that we saw. and that's different than if we're seeing u.s. production actually increase. so something to keep in mind. but again, 14.4 million barrels really a massive build when it comes down to it. even for this time of year. back to you at post nine. >>> jacqkjackie, thanks so much. jackie deangelis. improved odds for a potential trump presidency, it's worth asking the question just what would a trump in the white house mean for business? and does his rhetoric give any indication about how he would govern? mark cuban weighed in on that issue yesterday on "squawk alley." take a listen. >> i was very supportive of the fact that he was candid, open, you know, said what was on his mind, unscripted. but that's not who he is a

>> it is the iranians, the iraqis, what i think is interesting is, you know, algiers, two months ago, the iranians were exempted. now the eiranians are asked to cut production and that's a nonstarter for tomorrow. >> they want to get to 3.9, to 4, beyond ultimately as well. will that happen? >> here is the thing. iran produced 3.8 the last year before sanctions. they haven't done 4 million for quite a long time. so the question is, is iran digging a line in the sand for if 4 million when they're probably not going to get there in the near term? is this posturing going to kill a deal? >> brian? >> hey, haleema. you've been in the camp that the iranians and the saudis are going to set aside their differences as you call it, stick the landing. are you still in that? do you still believe this is going to happen because the rhetoric seems to have ramped up in the past 24 hours. >> yeah, the rhetoric ramped up. i'm still in the camp they work it out simply because everybody still wants a deal done. a year ago, the saudis, the rest of the gcc was saying, we don't need to come in and stabiliz

in the run-up to this meeting, certainly after algiers where it that isvery positive, being pared back seen prices fall from the mid-50's to the mid-40's. if there is not a deal, if it works out badly rices will fall. i think fundamentals are looking better, global gdp looking better. i think the other important well as bear in mind as we are well as we are starting to see investors interested in investing in commodities. the fiscal spending fame, commodities -- seem, commodities are a good well -- way of hedging. if we doarly next year see the fundamentals continue to improve in the way they seem to be at the moment, even without an opec cut, plus better gdp growth and a better global atmosphere in the economy, it is quite possible we get price risk moving to the upside, especially if investors continue to allocate into commodities. averagingprices to be in the low 60's by q2. tom: very quickly, bring up the chart. here is inflation adjusted copper. are you calling for a breakout of commodities, a bottoming and a breakout back to a bull market? happenedok at what has to commodities th

remain committed to the idea that weise painstakingly put together in algiers.ed to its ample mentation. >> shares of follow this morning after britain's biggest retailer confirmed the accounts of summits bank customers have been subject to online criminal activity. in some cases, money has been withdrawn fraudulently. tesco as stopped withdrawals. boardlkswagen supervisory has been added to a german probe of the company's omissions scandal. thecarmaker says prosecutor's office had extended its investigation. meanwhile, a newspaper has reported that they found software cheat air-quality in audi cars. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: we are getting some breaking news. i went through most of the headlines. we know that theresa may just landed. let's look at pictures of the two of them. we may have live pictures. the conference just wrapped up. we know that theresa may has clashed with her indian counterpart over migration rules and failed to have a meeting with senior officials. let's look at more on tomorrow's election. york is mye in new cohost to

that is at the bottom end of the range where we thought we had a deal back in september in algiers.l price got up to $53 on the back of that. still a way to go to recapture all of that ground to the upside. perhaps we haven't yet is there are concerns about those details. couple of them are that saudi will be taking a hit of half a million barrels a day and that iran will be freezing at 3.977 million barrels a day. so freezing just below those pre-sanction levels. but what are the big barriers to getting over this deal? i spoke to the saudi oil minister earlier. listen in. i'm told we haven't got the sound, so let's just tell you -- >> country will have to agree -- >> reporter: and need everybody across the board to -- i'm sorry, i think we've got the sound or have we got the sound? all right. apparently we haven't got the sound. anyway, he said to me we need transparency across the board. we also need to see everybody participate. it has to be unanimous, coordinated action across the board. the interesting thing, and we've heard that in the last couple of minutes there's going to b

there was no quota in algiers. 30 -- ia on november think the most likely scenario is where they haveroduction 32.5 million-33 million barrels a day but there will be no quota allocated at vienna. so it gets kicked down the road. with noill be vague concrete deal. i think that is the most likely scenario. alix: a watered-down front. good to see you, that was bob yawger. a record, october was month for dealmaking with nearly half a trillion dollars in acquisitions announced across the world. this is bloomberg. ♪ emma: this is a "bloomberg: daybreak." is 11:30 a.m. in london and here is what you need to know. divergent in big oil. reportedch shell profits after the acquisition. on weakerslid refining margins and oil production loss. out of options, the boj cutting the inflation were cast. the central bank left the monetary policy unchanged. and hillary clinton and donald trump are preparing for a possible postelection day battle. all caps a support volunteers and lawyers across the country ahead of the possibility of a contested election. david: let's take a look at how the markets are

. >> we as opec remain committed to the ideas that we painstakingly put together in algiers. remain committed to implementation. alix: we also heard from big oil, at the exhibition convention today. bloomberg spoke to a ceo on just how important an opec deal is to them. >> it is quite important for our financial investors that would like to be -they would like to know that it is taken care of. that there ishink a strategic role here that can be given assurance that we are doing -- alix: bloomberg also asked the bob dudley who the most important player would be in a deal. bob: it certainly isn't the ioc. i think it is the gulf states, and russia and iran. those are the ones that need to reach some agreement. i've no special inside information on where they are going. alix: for more, bloomberg join is going ony, what on the ground? could we see a deal in the next few weeks? tracy: this is the biggest convention that abu dhabi sees every year. it is usually about oil and gas. technical companies coming to show off their latest wares. this particular year turned into meeting. a m

the high end of that alleged accordant algiers was a cut between the high end that 7000 barrels a dayou focus on what the iranians except, they said about 600,000 barrels. correct, the iranians themselves up at nine hundred thousand barrels of oil on the market since april 2015. we are talking about a cut that would not accommodate the amount of oil a rainy and sub had put -- toronto oil iranians have had, and they have no intention of cutting production. this will have to go to the sunni side of opec and we don't see it. it is mind-boggling that they sit there, we have seen this movie played out before. the market follows it, wall street follows it, they followed the tweets. the market ebbs and flows with every breath iranians or saudis say at the market. at the end of the market day, we know there is a slim chance that we see any sort of cut. even if we see the cut, 700,000 barrels a day not a lot, especially when we say that the glut in oilglobal to persist through 2017 because demand will be stagnant. let's take that 700,000 barrels because remember -- americans have taken 1.1 mil

what do they agree in algiers is somewhat outdated? will: that exactly right, jonathan.e biggest surges has been liberia. they have been exempted from the deal and we have seen hundreds of thousands of extra barrels and we will look at the indicators of the fiscal market in place like the north's the, the mediterranean, a lot of oil. north sea oil heading toward asia, not a trade you normally see. so much oil around it makes sense. jonathan: will kennedy. want to bring breaking news on the latest out of the trump administration. ben carson for the department of housing and urban development. ben carson getting that pic from president-elect donald trump. back to the markets. joins us to continue the conversation. opec and an agreement, are we going to get one? ed morse: the odds are we going to get one. it does not really matter what iraq and iran will do so. fori arabia is in a bind being so aggressively in favor of a cut. i think they should of then plaintiff more ploy. when the heart of opec wants to do something, they need to get behind them. a little bit of bad diplo

they have had some many meetings since this algiers deal at the end of september.ce. they have met in istanbul. they had been meeting all less week. there are technical teams in vienna. wednesday is supposed to be the bottom line for a deal. it will be interesting if they decide to pick up talks next week, or if they start playing hardball and that is it for six months. david: thank you so much. still ahead, amazon is .racking down the steps are taking to get rid of fakes. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: and i'm funny quinn. onlineld's biggest vendor is getting serious. by a bloomberg technology reporter who covers amazon. spencer, it is not a unique problem to amazon. is that theyought are now getting series not counterfeit? spencer: it has been lingering for a wild. alibaba is the biggest marketplace namely comes to counterfeits. amazon is big and growing and has a lot of spending going on which makes it a prime target for counterfeiters. david: how difficult is it to police this? amazon has is marketplace in gre