joining us now are bill smead and alicia levine. ia, what did you learn over the last six months. synchronize growth is no longer synchronized and now we have the virgins. that started to play out in february when we had signals of inflation in the u.s.. alix: you can really see that in the dollar. if you come inside the bloomberg , the decline that we saw earlier in the year but the monster rally. we are still not above that october 2017 week. do you have to rethink a weaker dollar. ? bill: we do very little rethinking but we think of all these things all the time. is thest thing about oil markets do what they have to do to frustrate most people, so that is a perfect picture on oil. oil looks an awful lot to us like a bear market rally, and the reason we say that is it hit a peak of $147 a barrel in 2008, $32, rallied to $115, dropped again and now it is at the $75 high. let's say it goes all the way to $80, it is still a bear market rally. i think most of the investors who are trying to catch up to this rally in oil will catch up t