alicia levine is with us of bny mellon. the last time we spoke, i believe you had more caution to the equity markets. do you sustain that? alicia: good morning. nice to see you guys again. i think the pace at which we are rising is a little bit concerning for future gains from here, but overall, there is so much support in the market not just from the fed, but also the flows year to date, where five to one flows have been going into the bond market and not equities, and there's also nearly $5 trillion on the sidelines sitting in cash, so all of this is still dry powder, even with the pace we have moved higher. so yes, i am cautious, going into that seasonal sort of andness that september october, where gains tend to be consolidated. there will be some election angst, i am sure. and there will be some cobit angst on -- some covid angst on the vaccine retreat front. but i am still positive the direction of travel is upward. tom: what is your key valuation metric right now? is it price to sales? are we rationalizing like amazon

alicia levine with us, bny mellon, a more cautious view then many we have been speaking with.in 35 minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are looking for continued improvement in the economy, but the pace will probably slow down at the we had this quick rebound. >> we are looking at the possibility of recession in q4 and q1, and further negatives. >> we are looking at rates near zero for a long time, maybe forever. >> there is a certain logic in the market doing better than the economy here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast come on bloomberg ra

want to break down all the news with alicia levine. i want to start with disney. it is the streaming story that has catapulted netflix and amazon prime. lot of people thought netflix was dead but that stock is back 70% and right now disney is struggling. why do you think that is? >> look, the fact of the matter is that if your base business is digital, then your stock will move higher because your business is actually improved as a result of the pandemic and consumer preferences with streamed videos. if your base business is groups of people being together and socializing, that's a little bit more challenge. unfortunately, this is not going to be a three-month phenomenon. it's clearly going to go on for longer. so all of the travel and leisure stocks that we see will be challenged for the next few months simply because until we have a vaccine, that kind of consumer behavior is just not going to be helpful to their bottom line. cheryl: the question for me after the bell was disney in particular, the theme park business. they've had openings, shutdowns, some of thei

bny mellon chief investment strategist, alicia levine and divine capital dani hughes. this powell fed gets a lot of grief from a lost folks because they're pumping up assets. there is concern from the fed there is deflation out there. this is what roiled the global economy during the great depression, but once it starts it is hard to stop. is it justified. >> we'll while would-be hearing about starting on thursday that inflation has been real slow to get to the 2% fed target. in part what you spoke about, charles. the fed was always raising rates because inflation would get there but never got it. if they let inflation rise above 2%. better for the economy. cheaper credit means businesses can borrow. and that will also ultimately help the person on the street that you just spoke about. better business, better economy, good for everybody. charles: right. you know, dani, you listen to jerome powell, some other members of the fed, we know they have a dual mandate with employment and inflation but it feels like they have this new-found mission to perhaps help a homeless wo

first to talk about what just happened, charlie is still with us alicia levine and katie stockton joinn. welcome to everyone. i'll start with you on this selloff we got into the close. what perpetuated it and what stood out in terms of the damage >> the backdrop was that the market came into august essentially bucking the normal seasonal weakness. we have up seven days in a row people got very excited about the idea that the retouching the old highs was destiny. and that we were having this very kind of harmonious rotation from the big mega cap growth stocks into the cyclicals. seven pleased with it. there was a little bit too much of kind of a shakeout in things like gold. remember what was also accompanying that strength recently which was dollar going down keeping real yields negative and that all got disturbed a little bit today a little reversal. we don't know if it meanses anything macrowise or a mini positioning shock in here. it comes in the context of a market that was on a very good role and was not necessarily. >> naturally, yeah it came into finl resistance from february. t