right now, we are advantaged by alicia levine of bny mellon. did you go to cash yesterday? alicia: i did not go to cash. we are 3.5% below the high. that is not something to really write home about. and you all know the average drawdown in any calendar year is 14%, and this year we never got more than 4%. we keep bouncing off the 50 day moving average. so if we do something worse, it would not be something so out of sync with how the market typically behaves. it was pretty ugly, though, and the bond market is really leading this. i thing this morning's actions suggest you look at the bond market and the kind of tepid action we are seeing from equities in the premarket i think there's probably more to go here on the downside. it is not fatal. it is just taking some of the froth out of this market and unwinding some of those trades that were really overworked, all into cyclicals or all into tech, and tech was the last thing to come apart yesterday. jonathan: where do you think the leadership comes from next, and what are the signs you are looking for as we correct? alicia: i l

we had alicia levine earlier, saying you can analyze it. but it feels sort of like that liquidity from the u.s. is there or not. katie: that does not seem to be the concern right now, which is interesting because china has been trying to make itself more investable for foreign investors, especially in the bond market. when i speak to investors and analysts, how do you feel confident putting your money in china right now? the only answer, you really have to have a long-term horizon. for the next few months, even the next few years, that does not seem that possible. romaine: i want to bring it back to the u.s. a lot of action in the treasury market. we saw the real yield go down to 1.13, which i would think is not good. katie: that will actually bring us global again. it is a record low. if you look at the rest of the week, we have the fed, gdp, a case of 8.5% growth. if you look worldwide, you have the u.s. where half of the population is vaccinated. that is not the case globally. now you have the delta variant. all of that is being priced i

joining me bny management, alicia levine. alicia, you have a raise in titles.a one-hour show. congratulations. let's talk about this. household debt obligations. disposable income at record lows. savings above $2 trillion. we have all the speculation how the economy will start to fall apart here. how does this inform your work, where people should be invested beyond the noise? >> first, charles, it is great to see you again. thank you for having me. look, we think there is an extra $2.3 trillion in american savings right now, extra savings since the pandemic started, that have not been spent yet. in addition, as you know, the irs is now doing child tax credits to about 39 million households, which will be $300 per child for the next 12 months. so that is really an enormous amount of stimulus in u.s. pocketbooks. the demand is everywhere. you can see it in travel, in restaurants. the demand for services. actually my one concern supply cannot keep up. very clear. balance sheets are healed. the household debt levels are fine. and there is a propensity to spend her

looking -- with alicia levine of bny mellon wealth management. looking forward to that. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. senate majority leader chuck schumer has planned a vote today on whether to begin debate on the $759 billion infrastructure bill. senators in both parties have not agreed on the measure yet. the vote puts pressure on the bipartisan group negotiating the measure, but also runs the risk of an embarrassing defeat. the u.s. government is warning americans to avoid traveling to the u.k. because of a surge in coronavirus cases involving the highly contagious delta variant. the warning came on the u.k.'s so-called freedom day, when pandemic related restrictions were lifted. ubs posted better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter. the largest bank in switzerland benefited from a jump in new assets and income. still, ubs warned it expects a slow down during the third quarter. the bank has pivoted away from volatile investment banking, now focusing on helping the ri

prediscuss what the fed might do and that's jim caron of morgan stanley, jpmorgan's david kelly and alicia levinedo today, alicia? >> so i don't think there will be as many fireworks this time as there was last time because last time was really the fed putting in a hawkish dtilt which had been successful. we expect the fed to discuss the fact that they've talked about the taper, so they're talking about talking about. the decision probably doesn't come until jackson hole in september and probably not until the end of the year and acknowledgement the u.s. is making progress with growth and the delta variant. all less exciting than last time >> jim and then david, we have about a minute before the decision will come out and we'll get word jim, let me ask you, does the rise of the delta variant make the fed's taper talk more or less likely, with more or fewer teeth in it? >> it makes it less likely but it makes it less likely because it creates uncertainty around baseline expectations. i think the fed does need to speak about tapering, but i don't think they will make any final decisions here i thin