alix: growing pains. u.s. independent oil producers spend more and get less as the shale development hits some road bumps. make glencore great again. record profits at glencore not enough for investors as they clamor for buybacks in dividends. and big growth plans. lyondellbasell's ceo bob patel outlines expansion plans for one of the largest petro-chem giants in the world. alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." it's 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. all right, let's kick it off with "spot on." it's our analyst's take on our big story. joining me now is tamar essner, nasdaq's lead energy analyst, in our spotlight on oil earnings. good to see you, tamar. thanks for being here. tamar: thanks for having me back. alix: the big theme with enp independence in the u.s., production guidance goes nowhere. capex goes much, much higher. what was your big takeaway so far? tamar: comp

alix: trump's rap refocuses on europe. president trump europe to china when it comes to trade taxes as the eu offers on auto not good enough. u.s. not backing down on china. trump argues china manipulates its currency and wants to levy tariffs on $200 billion worth of chinese goods next week. august surprises. e.m. weakness. of monthlytring losses in 2015 while u.s. equities a grind out. we made it. it is friday, august 31, the last there the month. i am alix steel. in the market, you can imagine it is going to begin liquidity, then volume. not a lot of risk. s&p futures, a little softer. zero dollar flat on the day despite the fact that european inflation slowing just slightly as a risk on feel disappears and the yen gaining. 20 basis points, little bit of volume on the back and the curve in terms of the safety bet. brief.w for your morning at 10:00 a.m., we'll get consumer attitudes at the university of michigan -- we will get the baker hughes rig count. senator john mccain's funeral will be held in washington on saturda

alix: here is to hoping.z sonders of charles schwab will be joining us on where investors are going during the turmoil in turkey. markets having a risk obsession as the dow jones futures are off by triple digits. flat yield curves, strong dollar, weaker commodities. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: king dollar crushes some currencies, the euro hits the low of the year. what other assets can be taken down by dollar strength? turkey regulators to the rescue. country's last more tariffs on u.s. goods. retail revival. macy's on deck, the latest reads for consumer spending, getting a preview of third-quarter growth. is 4% sustainable? david: welcome to bloomberg daybreak. earnings are out which i am now calling up even as we speak. alix: macy's boosting forecast. earnings coming in at $.70 per share. they thought they were going to be down by 9/10 and they boosted the forecast. david: macy's stock has been quite -- has been up quite a bit. quarter was strong and then second quarter, a lot of people are taking a second l

alix: thanks so much.rically unpredictable month. how brought his support? market strategists waited. >> you have a u.s. economy on fire and you have the rest of the world slowing. turk, andouse saying, others been such -- why has sp ain, turk, and others been such excellent performers? >> we turned in june. we upgraded totally at the time. we have been signaling this call all year. at some point, we felt a peak rate of change would be in, and that would be the time to get more defensive. the time that quite well. in fact, defensive sectors reported extraordinarily well, better than we had hoped. alix: joining us now is jim caron, morgan stanley investment management, senior portfolio management, and gina martin adams, bloomberg intelligence equity strategist. how much further does it have to go? gina: short-term, it has been very strong. maybe it will take a little breather. but frankly, when we run our technical models, they say it will be higher over the next 12 months. the short run has something urgen

alix: wow. david: you can find all of the , rts we just used on gtv from your bloomberg terminal. coming up, more on that not nafta deal president trump is pursuing with mexico. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ kailey: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am kailey leinz. shares of tiffany are rising in premarket trading. they reported second-quarter earnings above estimate. europe.set a 4% drop in apollo global management has agreed to buy aspen insurance management for $2.6 billion in cash. that represents a 7% premium to spen's closing yesterday. againsthas come out t-mobile's proposed takeover of sprint. the communications workers of america says the deal would cost jobs, threaten competition, and speednot speak -- the arrival of five g networks. david: thank you so much. resident trump announced a new u.s.-mexico trade deal that he does not want to call nafta. we welcome wendy cutler. he spent nearly 30 years negotiating trade deals. thank you so much for being with us. take us through the process fo

alix: and also iran.re is a narrative that eventually countries like iran locate because there is too much economic pressure, but on the other side, why would you do that? erdogan said the same thing, as it come into the struggles, we will fight back. president trump is giving other countries somebody to blame, so that means we will continue to hit at these stalemates. i understand you want to look for opportunities, but how do you deal with that downside? alex: one area you want to look at as you are in investor hedging against the middle east and of the political environment is to look at the oil prices. right now, the geopolitical risk premiums is baked into oil prices, and at their highest levels since the arab spring. investors being a little bit nervous about the geopolitical shifts happening in an area that is responsible for 50% of the world's oil supply. any disruption, any flame that starts, could see those prices get disrupted. if it looks like the close of that wouldof -- lead to a rally and i

alix: fuel standards under attack. the trump administration wants to wipe out california's electric vehicle mandate. companies from steel to hogs to grain, the impact on producers and industrials. u.s. to iran, it's your move. iran preps for renewal of economic sanctions. opec ramps up production. violence between yemen and saudi arabia. ♪ alix: i'm alex steele, welcome to bloomberg commodities edge, 30 minutes focused on companies, physical assets and the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. but start with spot on, and expert take. in the spotlight, earnings, commodities, and terrorists. -- and tarriffs. we have it covered for you. mario parker joining us from chicago, and joe joining us in new york. let's start with caterpillar, the stock down the last few days. the ceo tried to quantify it. >> those tariffs had minimal impact on the quarter but are expected to impact the second half material costs by $100 million to $200 million. we expect freight costs to remain elevated as we ramp producti

alix: higher rates is key.kely to go away unless something bad happens across central banks, causing them to panic, something to consider as we try to argue that what happens in turkey stays in turkey." meaning that if this effect has longer-term implications? >> i think the fed is set on this course. alix: do you need to be strategic in how your hedging, in order to offset broader landscapes? lori: that pushes you to some places you want to go anyway. over the last few days, defensive sectors have held up, the s&p 500 has held up. utilities are perking up. we're seeing good valuations in those areas of the market anyway. andd: if there is contagion depreciation of em currencies, which sectors are most likely to be affected in the u.s.? some companies earning a lot of money overseas and that money is worth less when they bring it back. lori: it is hard to know the em exposure exactly. this of companies say -- is our international exposure and we will not tell you specific countries. technology, industrial, mate

alix: elon.lth bank in boston pointed out that you need the accountability of responding to investors. d.pointed to for would it be important to separate chairman and ceo roles? >> there have been a lot of criticism of florence over the of theout -- boards years about how much they are keeping the company accountable. i think the transparency thing is a big question. you would give up transparency in terms of quarterly earnings two times a year, and that is something we have been talking about related to test the. tesla.company goes -- to if the company goes private, they would lose transparency. david: thank you. one of the things we are watching is tesla. according to the wall street journal, they are being investigated not only for elon musk's tweets, but their production of the model three last year. you can see what has happened to stock since that first week. i found interesting this new york times interview, he said i tweeted while i was driving to the airport, and i did not give it much t

alix: what about short-term?eries are going to start changing how they are dealing with products. for example, make more diesel, less residual fuel. will we have a shortage of what we need in the next two years? >> that's a good point. we had just come out of a period of strong resid pricing. one thing that refiners are trying to do is tweak their kit so they run less resid and produce more diesel. in 2020, that will be nowhere near sufficient for the type of diesel demand we need. but in the near term, we have had very strong high sulfur resid cracks. diesel crack have kind of treaded along water. one thing that is important to emphasize is that diesel has already been in a tight market for the last two years. since 2017, on a global basis, we have drawn about 100 million barrels of diesel, which is about the amount that the u.s. holds in total inventory. it's a very big number we have drawn in the last year and a half. we've been running the market short about $100 to $200 a barrels a day. we need to fix that b

alix: interesting.stanley changed her fed view, no four hikes in 2018 and only three in 2019. -- now four >> hikes in >> 2018. are responding to data. the outlook continues to be pretty good. inflation is not running away from us but it is clearly at the fed target. financial conditions have tighten this year but are not extraordinarily tight. if i am the fed, i cannot ignore that. that is what she is responding to, zynga chance of them hiking is much higher -- saying the chance of them hiking now in december is much higher. i think has been bothering the market more than anything this year is effect of the fed is being much more deliberate in their tightening this year than we have seen in , meaning they're reducing their balance sheet consistently, hiking every other meeting 25, and i think the market has responded by hitting the weakest links sequentially all year long. now jamming into the areas that are perceived to be safer. if the fed keeps going, it makes me more confident. the fed said what the

alix: he is a show man.cted the saudi private fund. >> you a question we don't know the answer to is what are the key elements of dell -- one of the key elements of dell was michael dell rolling all of his stock over to the deal. while we don't know is how many tesla shareholders are going to be willing to just roll into this. david: and maybe insiders, board members. we don't know that. >> that is going to be a key element of getting to that. david: he has already done a number of things we thought could not be done. alix: he sent a car into space. david: let's talk about papa john. ceo ands a shift in the did -- heter says he wished he did not get put out. he wrote a letter. -- i built this company from the ground up and am still its largest shareholder. results demonstrate i know what works and what does not work for this company. that is john schneider -- john schnatter. >> this was a business that was already struggling. clearly there was a lot of drama there. it will be interesting to see if the price

alix: commodities crumble. copper freefalls into a bear market as the stronger dollar drags down prices. some big winners. standards for shipping fuel change in 2020. bob reindall makes the case that a houston refiner will come out on top. gold is no place to hide. some hedge funds feel the pain. i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge," 30 minutes focused on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. first, let's kick it off with spot on, the analyst take on the big story. joining me is bloomberg's chief energy correspondent javier blas from london. today, our spotlight is the rout in commodities. javier, we saw extreme selloff in commodities across the board this week. zinc at a two-year low, cover copper having its worst day since last december. is it over? javier: i don't think it is over. we are beginning to see signs of economic slowdown across emerging countries. those companies are pulling global demand for commodities. it's not just about turkey. what is consum

alix: a little bit. i guess if you are a long investor with that 65% rise over the next nine months. david: take some off the table. alix: yesterday was a traumatic day. today, futures up 14 points. on the front foot. it is a stronger dollar store that has rocked markets over the last week. now that strength taking a pause. the 2-10 spread deeper. i want to point out copper. an unbelievable move yesterday. it would be hard to look at another selloff in commodities that did not have a specific trigger that had such a deep impact across assets. david: i looked at copper over the year. it has been drifting down. alix: what is so impressive is that on the structural level, some deficits are coming up not being counted for in the metal. that raises the question of the sentiment and how easy it is to change. about investors may think appetite and whether growth will demand copper. alix: exactly. david: let's go to our first take. we are joined by gina martin adams. as we wait for the walmart earnings come out,

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel.risk on rally, records and the s&p and nasdaq, taking a pause this morning. european equities getting hit. down five point 4% despite the fact that some arman on makers came back on report that the eu might consider zero tariffs on autos. it is a stronger dollar story. euro-dollar down. a confusing week for the dollar. as well.ghing on em, euro stirring -- sterling also flat. but they say they are prepared for disorderly brexit. crude up .6%. president trump not missing the record rallies we have seen, tweeting this morning that the news and financial markets is even better than anticipated. people making a margin and seen 401k's rise. more good news is coming. david: not quite as good for dollar tree. they missed earnings-per-share by a penny. comparable store sales were up 1.8%. looks like they are trading down right now, about 3.7% in the premarket. it seems that sales for the full year, they still see $22.97 billion. full-year earnings on the high end is $5.05. interesting why they

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: for our viewers worldwide, i am alix steel.trading. this account down to the open. ♪ alix: coming up, mosques -- m usk's electric reversal. he abandoned plans under shareholder pressure. by risk management and gradualism. the yield curve hits its lattice in over a decade. emerging rake through. the u.s. mexico closing in on a nafta agreement creating an opening for canada to rejoin. in markets here the rally we saw on friday continues underway. s&p closing at a record since jenna were 26. the dollar rolling over a little bit. winning the euro is inching up. the 10 year yield to 83. selling all across the bond market. crude flat after the dollar reversed its movement earlier. jay powell

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel.dent erdogan saying there is no weakness in the lira. thenarkets a lot calmer they did on friday. the dow jones futures only off 81 points. the s&p did have its worst day in a month on friday. the european banks are taking it on the chin. down 1.5%. still concern about exposure to turkey and if they want to close up shop in turkey. many things to watch. front and center is euro-dollar. 1.13 is how we print. there is worry of contagion in europe. -- that fear permeating across europe in particular when it comes to peripheral debt. the 10 year yield in italy up by nine basis points as there are no buyers in the market. the spread is deeper in the treasury market. crude off by .4. trauma when it comes to the commodity market yet. david: let's get an update on what is making headlines. amash chandra is here with first word news. is here withra first word news. emma: the president of turkey says the economy is under attack. policy makers announced a series of measures to free up cash but th

alix: shorter-term 1.1%. are seeing mark carney sitting down getting ready for the statement as well as to answer questions where you no doubt know that brexit will be front and center for the committee. >> good afternoon everyone and welcome to the bank inflation press conference. on my left is dave ramsden, deputy governor. -- on my right immediate right is mark carney. >> good afternoon everyone. if a week is a long time in politics, two years as an eternity. the mpc instituted a conference of package of measures including cutting bank rate to historic low of quarter percent and purchasing an additional 70 billion pounds of assets. today the mpc is raising bank rate by a quarter of a percent, three quarters percent. the u.k. economy had substantial spare capacity and domestically generated inflation was low. business confidence had fallen sharply to levels last seen in the wake of the financial crisis. inflation was expected to overshoot its target because of the sharp drop in sterling which is self reflec

alix: maybe.jon ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york city i'm , jonathan ferro. 30 minutes until the start of trading. this is the countdown to "the open." the united states said to consider slapping more tariffs on chinese imports. jay powell is planning ahead for gradual hikes. and wall street raising expectations for 2018 from apple. up 1/10ures looking ok, of 1%. euro-dollar treading more water. and we are up for basis points. the united states threatening to more than double the plan to tariffs on chinese imports, china warning the u.s. to stop blackmailing and pressuring it over trade. wall street weighing in on the escalating tensions. >> tengion will continue to escalate, because so far there has not been a market reaction. >> the trend toward protectionism did not begin on january 20.

. ♪ ♪ alix: growing pains. u.s. independent oil producers alix: growing pains. u.s.nt oil producers spend more and get less as the shale development hits some road bumps. make glencore great again. record profits at glencore not enough for investors as they clamor for buybacks in dividends. and come up big growth plans. lyondellbasell's ceo bob patel outlines expansion plans for one of the largest petro-chem giants in the world. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." it's 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. all right, let's kick it off with "spot on." it a

alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge."30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. all right, let's kick it off

alix: usually what we talk about is how the turkish issue is idiosyncratic, but now it is, what is the contagion like? we can see it across assets. futures down by 11 points. u.s. faring better than europe, europe down over 1%. the euro-dollar really getting taken down, down 6/10 of 1%, there are technical levels being spoken about, the dollar being a safe haven. the means you are buying core bonds in europe, and the two 10 spread continues to flatten.

. ♪ alix: commodities crumble.r freefalls into a bear market as the stronger dollar drags down prices. some big winners. standards for shipping fuel change in 2020. bob reindall makes the case that a houston refiner will come out on top. crude, where is my safe haven? gold is no place to hide. some hedge funds feel the pain. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." it is 30 minutes

alix: thank you. the crop impacts of the heat wave we are seeing.

. ♪ alix: fuel standards under attack.mp administration wants to freeze miles per gallon targets at 2020 levels and wipe out california's electric vehicle mandate. the tariff effect. companies from steel to hogs to grain suffer from potential trade wars. the impact on producers and industrials. u.s. to iran, it's your move. iran preps for renewal of u.s. economic sanctions, opec plus ramps up production, and violence erupts between yemen and saudi arabia. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." it's 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets , and the trading behind the hottest commodities with

alix: commodities crumble.falls into a bear market as the stronger dollar drags down prices. some big winners. standards for shipping fuel change in 2020. ceo bob reindall makes the case that a houston refiner will come out on top. dude, where's my safe haven? gold is no place to hide. some hedge funds feel the pain. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge," 30 minutes focused on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business.

. ♪ alix: fuel standards under attack.mp administration wants to freeze miles per gallon targets at 2020 levels and wipe out california's electric vehicle mandate. the tariff effect. companies from steel to hogs to grain suffer from potential trade wars. the impact on producers and industrials. u.s. to iran, it's your move. iran preps for renewal of u.s. economic sanctions, opec plus ramps up production, and violence erupts between yemen and saudi arabia. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." it's 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smte v

alix: growing pains. u.s.dent oil producers spend more and get less as the shale development hits some road bumps. make glencore great again. record profits at glencore not enough for investors as they clamor for buybacks and dividends. and big growth plans. lyondellbasell's ceo bob patel outlines expansion plans for one of the largest petro-chem giants in the world. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, and welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." it's 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. all right, let's kick it off with "spot on." it's our analyst's take on or

alix steel is off today. start with movers this morning. hp shares are lower in the premarket. ross stores also falling after it came out. pointing out that maybe expectations were running high after positive numbers from pj xp. those are trading higher after earnings beat estimates. other movers that we're watching this morning. this is after a report that they and resurfacing here. a lot of grain on the screen. not up huge, just about a quarter percent. the shanghai composite has been back and forth. kailey leinz is here with first word news. taking aent trump is different turn in tone to jeff sessions. he said the justice department will not be improperly influenced by politics and president trump said that sessions in should look into all the corruption on the other side and gave a list of wrongdoing by democrats. look for trade between the u.s. and china to escalate. china has raised the possibility that there may be no more negotiations until after the november midterm elections. a new round of tariffs

. ♪ alix: fuel standards under attack.nistration wants to wipe out california's electric vehicle mandate. companies from steel to hogs to grain, the impact on producers and industrials. u.s. to iran, it's your move. iran preps for renewal of economic sanctions. opec ramps up production. violence between yemen and saudi arabia. ♪ alix: i'm alex steele, welcome to bloomberg commodities edge, 30 minutes focused on companies, physical assets

. ♪ julie: i'm julie hyman in for alix steel.come in to "commodities edge." 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical aspects, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. let's kick it off on spot on. joining me is javier blas, who is bloomberg's chief energy correspondent in london. and ashley peterson. today the spotlight is on , aramco. saudi arabia is delaying plans to take its state-owned oil giant public. in what would have been the largest initial public offering in history. now perhaps, not to be at all or at the very least, delayed. ashley, let's start with you. what do you think is behind this delay, and are there implications for saudi arabian production at all as a result of this? ashley: this delay is not unexpected. i think even when they announced it two years ago, people were skeptical that saudi arabia -- saudi aramco would be willing to give up the confidentiality they have always valued in favor of a short term cash infusion. they have found a better way, and

. ♪ alix: u.s.roducers spend more and get less as the shale development hit several bump. not enough for investors as they clamor for buybacks. plans for the largest giants in the world. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." looking at thes hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business.

rarely taken seriously despite the huge advancement that can offer us to join him on stage tonight is alix spiegel, cofounder of the podcast that put together personal stories and brain science. after 10 years on and peer science, and many of us believed before that we could never understand. exactly as michael pollan has this writing it i can imagine a better conversation, so i will shut up and welcome alix spiegel and michael pollan to the stage. [applause] >> hello, everybody. i am so, so pleased to be here because 20 years ago you actually changed my self-concept because i read your book, the botany of desire in the human who is striving and struggling in the world and then after i read that i thought i'm just like a tool of the potato. like that is what i'm doing and it just blew my mind. if you haven't read it, you totally should. so you decided to write a book about drugs. so why would that you just start. >> first, it's great to be doing this with you. i am a tremendous fan of your work. am so pleased you agreed to do this. we take these things into our body like food and mushrooms

alix steel is still off. that with julie hyman. have: as i sit here, we numbers coming out on the latest department store to report its numbers. it is slightly ahead of estimates. $4.1 billion. that is right in line. the estimate was for a gain of 2.6%. we are seeing a beat. you see the share is moving down. just a word of caution, don't take too much away from it. gross margin in line with estimates as well at 39.5%. i am not seeing and earnings per share number. david: we're looking at comparable store sales. they beat a little bit. the other issue is going to be margins. eps at $1.76. they beat on that. comparable stores sales was up. julie: we are still seeing those shares fall even more. it is a bit confounding seeing that these numbers were largely in line, and we saw a similar situation with macy's. we had a similar situation in the run-up to calls earnings. we had a similar situation with macy's where they are up 50% year-to-date. david: it does feel like macy's at the moment because it looks like the numbers are good, but

alix steel is off today. welcome back to a. -- julie. julie: the single look at markets. it looks like discovery is just starting to come back out. i don't know if you want to jump in. david: second-quarter adjusted eps missed. earnings before introduction on taxes on 1.2 billion. the second-quarter revenue is 2.8 5 billion. that is a narrow miss. i don't see the earnings per share. we have been looking at this because discovery has been struggling because they have been losing scrubbers as most basic cable outfits have. -- lost rating. s./ they added the scripts properties. they make reference to makesdavid aslam reference to the scripts integration. he says they continue to make great progress with the integration but does not give much more detail than that. david: when they made the deal, they said they would have savings of $350 billion. they have taken that up to 600 billion. that seems to be driving that deal right now. let's get to rachel evans, bloomberg cross asset editor. rachel. let's turn to you. disney is the big one we are looking for after the bell. then w

. >> i'm alix steel. welcome to bloomberg commodities edge. the

. ♪ ♪ alix: u.s.alks for the first time in two months, boosting risk sentiment. goldilocks and the three bears. the bears out of harvar hibernation. to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday. we are waiting for walmart. alix: macy's crushing it, but getting punished. maybe they are spending too much. david: you had to feel sorry for them. alix: a little bit. i guess if you are a long investor with that 65% rise over the next nine months. david: take some off the table. alix: yesterday was a traumatic day. today, futures up 14 points. on the front foot. it is a

am david westin alix steel is off. alibaba short on earnings. 61% as thenue company's investments, which took down its bottom line, started to pay off. 804 yuan. the shares took a sharp leg down. now recovering. we will talk more about it. back, they looking revenue.billion yuan last quarter it was 50 billion. most american companies, that is pretty good news. julie: especially for a company of alibaba's size. some of the other markets, s&p range, as ouright markets globally this morning. an enormousseen amount of movements among major markets. so a tight trading range. not to currencies. the bank of russia has halted purchases currency as part of , trying torule increase the predictability of actions by monetary authorities. this could signal a rate action at some point in the future from the bank of russia. we also have movement in the south african rand after donald aump inserted himself into debate about land repatriation from white landowners in south africa, a legacy of apartheid. the dollar rising against the ra

visit ncicap.org] ♪ julie: i am julie hyman in for alix steel.commodities edge." 30 minutes focused on the

julie: i am julie hyman in for alix steel.