alix: is it accurate?shley: we think midstream constraints will be an issue and we have faith in operator disciplines. we are seeing reduced capex for 2019 as opposed to 2018, focusing in highly productive areas and not so much about growing volumes just to grow them. alix: that raises the question, how much of the light, sweet crude can the u.s. and the rest of the world absorb? ashley: that is ago is that the question. that's what we saw with the last price crash in december, the macroeconomics of the picture. we are getting good news but we are in a data desert still, it's only february. the information we getting on the autonomy side is very middle-of-the-road. good numbers in the u.s., and then weak numbers out of germany. right now, our expectations is that the world cannot absorb it. we have outages in venezuela, disruptions in libya, nigeria. there is a world in which we are still mostly balanced through the end of the year, but it is a rising concern and is driving a lot of price volatility. alix:

alix: thank you.all things luxury. first up, live with your porsche. what it is like to live inside the porsche design tower built with your car in mind. when you are in rome, eat pasta. the best restaurants for apostate in rome. meetsx, meets ebay, oscars. at the academyg awards with "roma" and "green book." david: web start with porsche. they have nicely designed lounges. there is an elevator where you can drive your porsche to your apartment and you can keep it there surrounded by glass so you can look at it any time you want.who wouldn't want that ? >> talk about the ultimate mancave. there is a five bedroom six and a half bath condo that closed last december for 6.7 million, without the porsche. the porsche come separately. even the sunglasses come separately. they have vending machines with $500 sunglasses. david: in fairness, you do not have to have a porsche. there is one mclaren, which by itself would bring you quite a bit of money. >> a pretty penny. the guy who bought that condo said the nu

we look at the next generation of technology. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel.elcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." 30 minutes focused on companies behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. first, spot on. our take on the big story. venezuela under siege. the threats to president maduro intensify with the u.s. implementing oil sanctions and the opposition leader's encourages more protests. john bolton tweeting this week, my advice to bankers, brokers, traders, facilitators, and other businesses, don't deal in gold, oil, or other venezuelan commodities being stolen from the venezuelan people by the maduro mafia. joining me is david marino. the offshoot of what is happening to u.s. refiners. a lot of refiners on the u.s. gulf coast rely on heavy crude from venezuela. what do they do? >> they can look for supplies out of mexico, canada, columbia. but there is only so much heavy sour crude that they need to go around. after opec cuts, there are even more of a tightness in the market. alix: one of the biggest buyers is valero. they ha

alix: i am alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge." the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. joining me from houston is rachel adams. spotlight on u.s. shale drillers doing more with less. they reduce their budget and pledged to deliver double-digit growth. how? >> they are having technology games but really they are trying to show investors cash flow ,eturns back to shareholders and saying we saw the drop in crude price in the fourth quarter. at -- it has not been a consistent reaction. what did you notice? >> if you are looking at yourfic examples, reporting in conjunction with fourth-quarter earnings. we are looking at a broad level, the s&p 500 energy index compared to the broader s&p 500, you are outpacing that, but overall looking at the crude , we are still figuring out what this means for the actual equities. it shows investors are optimistic. alix: thank you very much. all of that means production, the agency raising its forecast for shale production again, and hit another record in

alix: it is monday. you have to be positive. >> it is just as possible those things descend into chaos. alix: let's leave it there. thank you, marti. you can find all of the charts we just used and more on your terminal. you can save the charts, gtv . the clock is ticking for a trade deal with china. be reachedement before the u.s. more than doubles tariffs by march 1? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> this is "bloomberg daybreak." asla has been upgraded to buy. the price target is being raised $330.0 from the electric car maker should enjoy more stability in 2019 due to a calmer demeanor from ceo elon musk and more reliable production. economy shrinking by 0.4% in december alone, the biggest dip since before the vote to leave the european union. economists warn of a recession if no deal brexit occurs on march 29. china is adding to its gold reserves again as signs point to slowing growth and trade uncertainty with the u.s. the pboc increased gold holdings for the second straight months after going more tha

alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm alix steel.off field hitting the trajectory, sell stocks, by bonds. futures on the lows of the session, off 132. the s&p, off by 15, and the european stocks and even the mining stocks getting hit in europe. 1%.cline of 8/10 of worry is percolating in the developed markets. the euro-dollar is flat. a mixed dollar story, but the move to me has been the amount of money coming into the long end of the bond market, whether you are in germany, japan, in the u.s. -- 11 basis points for the 10 year bond yield. we were at 20 not so long ago and the 2-10 spreads flattening a little bit, 16 basis points. the worst drop%, off since december 24. you do not want to be compared to december 24. carol: that is a key point that will stick in our minds for a while. let's get an update on what is making headlines outside of the world of business. viviana is here with first word news. >> president trump and president xi jinping might not make a deal before the 90 day truce expires. president trump says he will not me

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm alix steel.ion about 12 and a half hours away. in the markets a little bit of upside. dow futures up by four point -- up by .4%. the dax also up 1% despite the fact that services pmi's in germany or france were week, particularly in italy. the sentiment going forward was at its lowest level for the entire euro zone since 2014. that is reflected in the currency market. staying lower high one to 2/10 of a percent. , bcb punch up the board wound up going nowhere. we have .2 spread in the market. oil flattening. still 18 basis points. crude off by 1%. that is interesting. coming into an inventory day tomorrow as well as what is happening with venezuela as well. david: breaking news. sherbourne is proposing the ceo join the barclays board. of ark something the ceo lays is supposed to. that is not -- of barclays is closed -- as opposed to. we turn to bloomberg's erik schatzker who is joined by gregory fleming. ik: we know greg fleming's name from morgan stanley and merrill lynch. some of you know that

alix: thank you for joining us.ow should an investor be looking at something like india and pakistan? the geopolitical risk is impossible to hedge. >> it is impossible to hedge. this is a hotspot that every once in a while boils over. these are two important countries. that's why futures have been sloppy over the last 24 hours. that sloppiness will continue. you can't have escalation there without the world standing up and being concerned. alix: if china was the growth engine, the rhetoric is india will be the growth engine over the next few decades. then we have something like this that can put a halt to that. that is a material risk for companies and ceos and investors across the board. gdphatever you thought would be over the next few years, you have to lower the number a bit. even if this does not heat up, it reminds you of the risk. foreign exchange volatility is going down. it is heading down. >> all volatility heading down. markets for a whole lot of reasons are little riskier. you also get more growth. hold

alix: he is still in jail. still the whole money thing with the versailles palace there, paying back that cash also. david: at the same time, the auto business not going that well. alix: credit suisse lost money on a commodity financing deal. the head of the swiss corporate investment bank called over the weekend and said may be no bonus. when it gets down to am i getting paid or not getting paid, that's when people start getting concerned. when the boss calls you over the weekend and says we need to have a real talk about your bonus, it's not great. with whereis issue he is focusing on where he is this swiss -- and business had been a real stalwart for them. we go over to berlin, where matt miller is joined by germany's federal minister for economic affairs and energy, peter altmaier. matt: i'm here with minister ltmaier. germany narrowly avoided a recession. what are you planning on doing about that? minister altmaier: the germany economy is in good condition. there will be more investment this year. -- this

alix: i'm glad you brought up em. that monster rally, and bank of america saying you may not want to buy into it. if any hawkish nest comes out of comes out hawkishness of the fed, the dollar will hike. jay: it strengthened because of news out of the rest of the world being even worse. if we are on the cusp of a turn and we see bottoming in china and europe, that situation reverses. those markets will do better. in terms of the em, we had a big move -- i wouldn't be an aggressive buyer here. , youall this dovishness look at peripheral debt in europe, that is very strong. that is helpful to italy, spain and greece. david: what is going to cause the turnaround? you've been emphasizing the need for demand. central banks can't create demand. jay: they can't. we focus so much on the manufacturing side. manufacturing is 10-20%. consumption is 65-70%. there, the news is much better. we have record low unemployment, pretty strong wage gains. wage gains in europe are up over 4%. i think there is room if you can ay from all the

alix: listen to the other story. industrial production falling the fastest since the financial crisis in europe.. the conversation emerging that there is weakness in the global economy -- not europe, not china, not trade. >> there's data out there that shows it is weaker than the u.s. and china. the big question is whether the being able to come off the stimulative policy will ever be realized. they are making it feel a little more tenuous. david: good thing you are here. s, these hybrid -- they shocked everybody by not calling them. that's howant as it? significant is it -- how significant is it? >> the reason they are not preventing them from exercising call -- theythis are making a marketing decision, which they are right to do so. at some level, investors should hope they do that. finance wheree in things are options and then suddenly become expectations. on wallit's bonuses cocos, there's an option to call them. you see the bonds were covering today as people realize they may not be as traumatic as they were wor

alix: he drinks coke. david: diet coke. alix: you are seeing optimism. you got export data out of china that wasn't terrible, not quite good. that is offsetting the weakness in europe, particularly the german economy. germany barely grows in the fourth quarter, barely skirts a recession. it wasn't only the autos, it was also pharmaceuticals. yields down by about one basis point. the german ten-year around the 10 basis point level as well. crude up by 1%. at are seeing a new board asa --asset -- paid of pedeveza. take away any trade overhang, oil will definitely run on that. david: at 8:30, we will get economic data, including retail sales and jobless claims. at noon, the u.k. parliament will vote on theresa may's request for more time to negotiate with brussels. today, we will see earnings from cvs and nvidia. we are joined by gina martin , a formervince trader. a macro squawk. that's great. let's turn to those china numbers overnight. surprising to the upside with exports growing and imports not down as much as they thought they would be. the white line

alix: how do you do it?charge versus you need to delegate and have good people around you. al: it's not a good story. you want continuity. there's a fair amount behind this that we don't know. i don't think it's a pretty picture, somebody coming in and leaving two months later. we will get greater context going forward. tesla, just looking at the stock price, has been incredibly tough on in terms of where the stock trades -- teflon in terms of where the stock trades. it's pretty incredible. i'm not sure we will be talking about this story two weeks from now. alix: if you are a retail investor, you are buying elon musk, you want to buy elon musk. w so mucha turnover in the hopes were that that-- and the hopes were 2019, we would see stabilization. the chief accounting officer left after a short period. that was last august. i get it. silicon valley is a tough place to work. turnover at these high-profile companies is not unusual. for tesla, it is pretty unusual. this is continuing into 2019. alix: the stock d

alix: agreed. david: that comes with the territory. alix: totally.it doesn't have your watch, why are you getting heard. thank you very much. coming up, a crackdown on china's huawei continuing. businessweek sheds new light. that's coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: the crackdown on china's huawei continues. erik schatzker has been following an fbi investigation, specifically its dealings with the chicago area startup. , we'vet-case scenario been publicly discussing some of the work we are doing. it could potential he put them in the right direction in terms of what to optimize, and i would say that is the worst case from a weapons standpoint. is simply tose give injury a -- simply to .ifferentiate who is using he's talking about huawei? reporter: talking about while way, and talking about two almost equally unpleasant options. the other alternatives, which i have to say if the worst case scenario, is that while way was acting on behalf of the chinese military and trying to obtain trade secrets because they have application in laser weaponry. non

alix: how?s right, the second quarter we should see more concrete signs of economic stability and a gradual recovery. that would increase the chinese demands for imports, including copper. it is an unfolding story. alix: how much of that is going to be dependent on all the new loans we saw on january and the credit that has been popping? can that offset weakness with trade? chi: not completely offsetting the global contraction on trade but the credit growth is important. we do need to see continuation of recovery in credit growth, which we have seen in the past few months already. ,f you look at the pmi numbers new orders do not do badly. when you have the new export orders coming down, which means the domestic component in china is not bad. we may be seeing the start of stabilization in china. david: other problems down the road with china? president xi wanted to cut down on leverage. now he's going to have to re-leverage to get the economy going. chi: the short-term is to re-leverage. once the

alix: thank you very much.y with us for a fed coverage full fedtoday -- coverage later on today. ♪ want more from your entertainment experience? just say teach me more. into your xfinity voice remote to discover all sorts of tips and tricks in x1. can i find my wifi password? just ask. [ ding ] show me my wifi password. hey now! [ ding ] you can even troubleshoot, learn new voice commands and much more. clean my daughter's room. [ ding ] oh, it won't do that. welp, someone should. just say "teach me more" into your voice remote and see how you can have an even better x1 experience. simple. easy. awesome. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." investors taking a bit of risk off the table. increasingators oversight of the unregulated margin that. -- margin debt. that sprinted to europe as well. the ftse under performer there, down over 1%. the riproaring higher sterling -- cable rate up 1%. you are seeing selling on the backend, yields up for basis points -- four basis points. the optimism raining in the currency ma

alix: more slack.t an update on what is making headlines from outside the business world. viviana her toddler is here with first word news. president trump says he never spoke to roger stone about wikileaks. last week asested part of the special counsel investigation into russia meddling in the 2016 presidential election. the president also telling the new york times he has been reassured he is not a target of the special counsel pro. the presidentn wants more disarmament in his summit with him john. .- with kim jong-un tim esmay no public commitment to disarm since agreeing to work -- kim has made no public commitment to disarm since agreeing to work toward that last june. while nicolas maduro and juan guaido jockey for power, 20 tons of gold are piled up for shipping. there is speculation the gold may be headed to divide. the trump -- two dubai. the trump administration morning not to deal in commodities that might be stolen by nicolas maduro. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter

alix: that is amazing. has been constructive meeting and is staying the course until the end. the vote on her brexit plan will be march 17. alix: it is within their grab. david: returning to kraft heinz, last week had drop in market it wrote down more than $15 billion in assets and gave disappointing guidance. welcome to guggenheim lead food and beverage analyst. there is a neutral rating on kraft heinz. good to have you here. >> good morning. before about what they do to get out, how did it happen so fast? i talked to people and they said, we are not necessarily surprised it happened but that it happened so fast good what happened? onthey got the bad news friday. it was not what everyone was anticipating. all of these things together it was a bit of a surprise. that is the reason why they are where they are. for every other food and other beverage are many, they are mostly in the u.s. 75% of earnings are in the u.s. can a food business which is depressed, where the consumers are looking for natural product

alix: patience. us, what is the biggest risk for businesses going forward in this arena? mike: attracting talent, retaining talent, getting the benefit of the talent. we talk about energy companies, health care companies. financial services was a sexy industry. everybody wants to going to technology. i think the sleeper industries are these industries you were talking about that have to attract and retain the talent. i'm seeing industries changing their workforce and now they attract those people and how they create an environment where those people see a line of sight for the future. mark: one of the biggest risks is you do not jump on board for companies. and mark ofnserra adams fund. a great conversation. soybeans getting a boost on reports china is buying $20 billion more in u.s. add products. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: no shocker. i am watching soybeans and corn getting a boost from reports china is offering to buy $30 products.re in ag joining us is sterling smith. what you make of these headli

alix: washington versus wall street.the battle over corporate buybacks after they search to a record in 2018. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." and equity rally underway after falling like tensions between the u.s. and china. trade talks will continue. in other asset classes, you're looking at a dollar that is still relatively strong on the day on those better conversations out of the trade talks. you see a little selling on the margins in the bond market. just moments away from a data drop in the u.s.. import numbers for the month of january on a year on year basis. down 1.7%. that was worse than estimated. quite a big fall on a month-to-month basis, down .6% -- export prices month on month coming down .6%. oil prices had an interesting january to say the least. there are still down about .7%. the story that we saw over in in the u.s. as well. david: i wonder there's exporting or a parallel decline in prices for producers. alix: the move in the markets we saw before is continuing. the dollar movin

alix: a lobar. -- a low bar. less bad.ave what's happening over at the bank of england and you have earnings coming in here in the u.s. twitter and yum! brands and tapestry dragging down the markets. we were kissing the 200 day moving average. now climbing back from that level. domestic production coming in light. it was a stronger dollar story. see migration to safer havens like the yen. .1%.dollar down points.sis 1.35%.ff david: coming up, we are more than halfway through the u.s. earnings season. 33 more companies reporting today. we will look at beats and misses, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: we have some companies out with important earnings this morning. foods, they missed on the top line but beat on the bottom line. they are managing down the income statement there and reaffirming their full-year guidance to six dollars a share. not enough to impress investors, shares off 1.5%. 60% beating on the top line, 72% beating on the bottom line. on the top line, the best surprises our health care and energy. the bo

alix: g.m. ,nvestments into the new market which is part of what daimler is struggling with, having to invest so much of the same time dealing with falling sales. david: they are throwing off enough cash, gm is. they are partners. they have honda, they have softbank. daimler has said they will start working with bmw that seems to be the pattern in the automotive industry. everyone once to pair up with somebody. question? is your david: my main question is can you keep it up? this has been an impressive performance but how you will you maintain this? i want to know where they are in the restructuring plan. they caused some controversy. lix, not mentioned in the state of the union address. no shot at gm for taking jobs away from factory workers. alix: or european trade leaders either. really looking to that interview coming up later on. part of theportant gm earnings story is there strong performance in china despite trade tensions. hillme ambassador karlov and the former u.s. trade representative

, was both offensive and insulting to the force investigative unit and myself. >> reporter: katlyn alixied yesterday. her mother, amy chadwick, described her love of service. >> she always told me, "mom, if i died, i'm doing something i loved to do." but this does not make me feel better. >> reporter: hendren's partner has been placed on administrative leave. stff, the st. louis police department says, effective immedi serviil have to verify the location of their officers every hour using g.p.s. >> glor: a story that is hard to believe. vlad, thanks. coming up here tonight, the largest-ever seizure of fentanyl at the border. fentanyl at the border. and this year, it's déjà vu all over again 'cuz only the ford f-150 with its high strength, military-grade aluminum alloy body gives you best-in-class torque, best-in-class payload... and you got it, baby... best-in-class towing. still leading the pack. this is the big dog! this is the ford f-150. it doesn't just raise the bar, pal. it is the bar. richard: oh! ernie: was that too hard for yo? richard: no. is this too hard for you? ernie: woo!

we talked to said lorenzo to unlock a key to its next success in oil recovery. ♪ alix: i'm alix steele to "bloomberg commodities edge." it is 30 minutes focused on the

we talked to the ceo to unlock the key to his next success in oil recovery. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. to bloomberg's "commodities edg

i'm alix steel.o "bloomberg commodities edge."

i'm alix steel. to bloomberg's commodities edge." focused on the physical assets and trading behind the hottest

we look at the next generation of technology. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg comm

alix: i'm alix steel.me to "bloomberg commodities edge." 30 minutes focused on the companies, physical assets, and tradinonhe

i speak with sean boyd, ceo of agnico eagle, on his commitment to staying independent. ♪ alix: i'm alix

jail with his head down as he awaits trial for allegedly shooting fellow officer 24-year-old katlyn alixn and his partner, who were on duty, were hanging out at hendren's house after midnight last thursday with alix who was off the clock. according to charging documents, hendren and alix reportedly took turns holding a revolver that was loaded with a single bullet. at some point, the defendant took the gun back and pointed it at the victim, pulled the trigger, causing the gun to discharge. the victim was struck in the chest. police initially labeled the shooting accidental. the circuit attorney kimberly gardner has criticized the st. louis police department with obstructing the investigation. st. louis police commissioner john hayden today. >> the accusation lodged by the circuit attorney to say the least was both offensive and insulting to the force investigative unit and myself. >> reporter: katlyn alix was buried yesterday. her mother amy chadwick described her love of service. >> she always told me, mom if i died, i'm doing something i love to do. but this does not make me feel all r

i speak with sean boyd, ceo of agnico eagle, on his commitment to staying independent. ♪ alix: i'm alixome to "bloomberg commodities edge," 30 minutes focused on the companies, physical assets, and trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in t

alix: the consumer -- do you like consumer staples? steve: we like discretionary. soay is my wife's birthday, i will go out and fix it. [laughter] steve: the underlying fundamentals are good. labor market is fantastic. we are getting some wage gains. a bit lowermay be or higher, but it's tax return season. you had a bit of a slow down at the end of last year because of the government shutdown. we are in a bottoming phase right now. we will have a strong may-april

alix: chevron commits to venezuela.eo tells bloomberg the company attempts to stay on the ground in the country, in an interview. the battle for nigeria. presidential elections could throw the country into chaos. we assess the supply risks. clarity in diamonds. the launch of a program that can track diamonds all the way to their sale. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel, welcome to "commodities edge," 30 minutes focused on the asset classes, and companies with the smartest voices in the business.

give others a preview of what will be on today, alix. we will talk about corn, soybeans, china trade. what is happening in brazil with the miners. and an interview with the ceo of baker hughes. all coming up at 1:00 p.m. vonnie: excellent. we were talking about baker hughes earlier with their stocks lower in that industry. coming up in the u.s., "balance of power" with robert jordan, former u.s. ambassador to saudi arabia. that is coming up at the top of the hour. a look at u.s. markets as we head towards the halfway point in the trading day. we are well off our lows with s&p 500 down one third of 1%, as 1%, asdow and -- 1/3 of is the dow and nasdaq. stay tuned, "balance of power" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, reports in progress on u.s.-china trade talks. we talk about 5g technology. it from london, brexit talks down to the wire. we start in washington. we had

it is alix steel kicking things off. alix: the saudi aramco this week said that the u.s.mming with supply and you could see an extension of the cuts at the back half of this year. this data shows something different. you saw a draw in inventories. and this is the reason. the top panel is the u.s. imports of crude, falling to its lowest level since 1996, 5.9 million barrels. and the reason why, the bottom panel shows the yellow line, imports into the u.s. from saudi arabia, which actually hit a record low. and the white line is imports from venezuela, which as we know is suffering to get their oil out, 60 ships are just sitting all over the coast of venezuela. so imports were reduced and we wind up having inventory drawdown. that was helpful for the oil price, but it probably will not continue because we still had record production in the u.s. and when you have that glut you will get the pushback from saudi arabia. and president trump saying, just relax. vonnie: simple as that. wonderful chart. guy, what do you have? guy: the bond market has been getting more relaxed as of

. ♪ alix: the boe and central bank delivers its latest assessment on the economy.on out right now, obviously completely expected. no change when it comes to rates. however, the bank does cut its growth forecast, saying the brexit damage has increased. >> brexit is causing short-term volatility in the economic data , and more fundamentally, it is creating a series of tensions in the economy. >> it's hard to feel sorry for a central banker, but mark carney has no direction. because of brexit. equally, the rest of the world is slowing down. there's a of high rates because of which pressure it's away from them yet again. they have to omit reality, which is that they aren't going to hike rates like they are expected to. they cut growth forecast. jonathan: it is down following a string of weak data. >> we're catching a reality. what people fail to focus on is why european growth is so low. when you want to speak fundamentals, why is europeweak? europe is weak because of all weak. is europe is weak because of all this political uncertainty. ♪ scarlet: there you have the c

i'm alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge."

but tonight, alix's parents are also questioning what happened. >> we need more answers. >> well, in the meantime, as this investigation plays out, linsey is here, and there have already been changes in the department because of this case? >> reporter: because of this, david, because remember, the officer allegedly fired this fatal shot, he was on-duty. he was supposed to be out on patrol. instead, he was at home. so effective immediately, the department says they're now going to start verifying the locations of the officers hourly. >> linsey davis with us tonight. linsey, thank you. >>> there are also new developments in what police call a possible hate crime against "empire" star jussie smollett in chicago. police overnight releasing surveillance, showing two persons of interest seen in the area where smollett told police he was beaten by men yelling racial and homophobic slurs. his manager claims they were on the phone when it happened, both men have now been asked for their cell phones. here's abc's steve osunsami. >> reporter: these tonight are the best pictures so far of the tw