alix, that category. so bad it's good. alix: it hurts my soul.e the new"ishtar." do you remember that? alix: no? it had warren beatty. mummy,"s it like "the where it is so bad you hate it? michael m: no, it was just bad. alix: will have more on how the markets disappointed -- we will have more on how the markets disappointed with these susquehanna markets research analyst. and you can keep up with the charts on the show by going to dtv go. this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." the energy company expects capital expenditures to be near the lower end of the $24 billion billion range. the next frontier for apple appears to be outer space. bloomberg has learned apple has a secret team working on related wireless technology. the goal, find new ways to beam data directly to his devices. apple is in the early stages of the satellite project. ceo tim cook has shown interest in the project. that means is the company priority. that is your bloomberg news flash. alix: thank you. we are looking at two companies this morning. fi

alix: fair.with that said, i think right now, we are entering 2020 where we are seeing very broad based evidence of the potential bottoming of the cycle, and if that is the case, we can have a meaningful boost to production. if that is the case and you follow historical patterns, you could have potentially and very frontloaded 2020 in terms of positive returns for risk assets. neil: interestingly, i think 100% the average side of that -- 100% the other side of that. at inventories are still record highs around the world. we need to work off those inventories before, and our opinion, you get industrial production picking up. i agree that's where the markets are. the markets have priced 2020 already in our book, so we are very nervous that, as we look into q1 and q2, as political risks in the u.s. rise, that markets get disappointed. alessio: clearly, there is the element of the leading indicators, and will they be confirmed or not but the actual data. we tend to focus on many of these leading indi

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel.uropean markets are closing right now, most of them closed. european stocks and the ftse are closing in the next few minutes. the futures look to open yet again at another record high. enter asset classes here really nothing moving at all. 26 basis points. euro-dollar, it was weaker, now we are flat. most of the bonds are not trading. treasury market will be open until about 2:00 p.m. the vix goes nowhere, oil goes nowhere. it has been a calm apple of days, especially compared to last year in december. one stock that is on the move is boeing. ceo, --urke ousted as dennis muilenburg ousted as ceo. joining me now on the phone is an equity research analyst. he removed the stock from his buy list in may and now has no rating. i would think that changing the ceo, a shift in that direction would be a good thing. why the no rating now? >> first of all, our firm only has a buy rating or no rating. right now we think that the stock could just kind of trade sideways for a while as we see this pl

i'm alix steel. you are seeing a little bit of a pause in the markets, unless you are in taiwan, because those markets hit the highest level since 1990. a teeny bit of buying in the bond market, a teeny bit of lightness in the s&p futures. time now for global exchange. we are going to bring you today's market moving news from all around the world, from new delhi to london, to brussels and washington, our bloomberg voices are on the ground with today's top stories. newndia, protests against a citizenship law sparked unrest across the country, raising concerns that prime minister narendra modi has taken his agenda too far. joining me from new delhi's bloomberg's southeast asia government editor. these protests have been going on for about a week now. what do they want? what is the goal here? reporter: they want this new law overturned. this law bans undocumented migrants from neighboring citizenship,king while allowing migrants of other religions. ifi has pushed this wrapped policies in the past, like

i'm alix steel. in the markets, it is a very busy week on the abbott -- on the economic front, on the data front. s&p futures down by about 0.1%. euro-dollar is taking a little higher here, $1.10. yields lower in the u.s. by about two basis points. time now for the global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world, from hong kong to london, to new york and washington. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with today's top stories. in asia, hundreds of thousands joined hong kong's biggest demonstration in months in signs that demonstrations will continue into the new year. joining me is stephen engle. give us the update. you know, this has been a protest movement that is now into its six-month, and i have to say, there is a bit of protest fatigue. people are tired of the violence. people are tired of the vandalism. they are tired of the disruptions to their morning commute. they are tired of the damage to the economy. but they are also tired of what they perceiv

alix: fair.er biggest ipo of the year, saudi aramco, which bankers got pennies for fees, basically. sridhar: it was this big pot of gold for global investment banks. you are talking fees and hundreds of millions of dollars. you're talking about a company that has a $2 trillion valuation, but is that even really reliable when you have 1.5% of the company listed? that is all that you have to go out for. this was supposedly the crown jewel of the ipo market this year. that is not how it turned out. alix: bloomberg's sridhar natarajan, thank you very much. and bank of america is the leader in leveraged loans. david westin has an exclusive interview friday. >> overleveraged companies tend to have problems when the world slows down. that is economics 101, or credit underwriting 101. we have the right amount of debt turns. alix: he also added that certain companies with too much leverage in their system are concerned because they usually reverberate back to banks. coming up, credit slowing, but risk is

i'm alix steel. it feels like i want to say risk on, but you are also seeing bunny in the -- seeing money in the bond market, so maybe it is both. yields down in the u.s. by about two basis points. crude off by 0.5%. opec delivered the goods, and it wasn't enough to move the needle on the oil price. time now for global exchange, where we bring you the market moving news from all around the world, from vienna to london, frankfurt to washington come our bloomberg roses are on the ground with all the top stories. in vienna, opec is said to reduce its target as a rock promises to comply. joining me for more is bloomberg's annmarie hordern. but do we know so far? annmarie: good morning. what we know is they've agreed at the opec+ allies meeting today to cut by the hundred thousand barrels a day, but the devil is in the details. brent and wti are both lower. this cut is basically cosmetic. we are still waiting for more details because it just brings the figures on paper to what they've been producing throu

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel.dlines circulating her last few hours. you can read it as it could be worse or we are seeing trade pessimism being priced out -- optimism being priced out, i should say. s&p futures near the lows of the session. in other asset classes, it is relatively stable g10 market. a weaker dollar story overall. the vix still somewhat elevated because we are at 16 basis points. you are seeing some commodities start rollover as well. we do have some breaking news. , the co-chief executive of bridgewater will leave the firm. this is the next chapter in ray dalio's succession plan. her counterpart, david mccormick , will now become the sole ceo. the hedgeray leaving fund and david mccormick will become the sole ceo at bridgewater. much more on that later on in the show. lower rates in the u.s. not yet having an effect on the housing market. bloomberg's michael mckee is looking into some of the numbers. michael: the fed came into the year saying it was going to be on hold and then lowered rates becau

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel.nitial jobless claims report for last week. not a lot of movement. it aftern just crushed earnings yet -- mike braun -- micron crushed it. yields moving higher in germany. it feels like a big victory in germany. the curve steepen's in the u.s.. 29 basis points. jobless claims dropping right now. filed for initial jobless claims last week. that is higher than estimated but still in line, and continuing claims around the average, one point 7 million individuals. still with me is peter tchir and diana amoa of jp morgan asset management. is the u.s. economy going to do as well this year relative to other parts of the world? peter: i think it will lag. we got a nice bounce off of the trade news, but i think the 2020 elections will hold us back. i think we are also due for trade headlines that might be negative in q1 and q2. i think it will be europe and emerging markets that can take the mantle of growth. alix: the philly fed index coming out for december. yuck. that is what i'm going to sa

alix: thank you. now we go to india, where that controversial religion-based citizenship act is being examined by the supreme court. joining us is the bloomberg southeast asia editor. what do we learn from the court? reporter: the court agreed to look at the legality of the citizenship law after petitions filed by activists, lawyers, muslim organizations across the country. we are expecting the move may calm protesters. they say it discriminates muslims from neighboring countries from seeking citizenship, but allows other religions in. the government isn't backing down, nor are the protesters who want the act repealed. we are not sure how the court will rule. for now, we will just have to see how the security forces and the government respond. alix: thank you so much for that update. now we had to paris, where psa group and fiat chrysler agreed to merge in a deal that will create the world's fourth largest auto manufacturer. the europeanw is bloomberg transport reporter. what do these companies get fr

alix: thanks so much. i want to stay in london now, where president trump will be arriving later this afternoon i had of a two day nato summit. joining me is bloomberg's white house reporter. it used to be all about trump and nato, but there's so much other drama to discuss when it comes to nato. reporter: obviously, i think we are going to be really interested in how president trump response to recent terror attack in london, and if he wades into the british elections. there's also a ton else going on. the french are pushing nato to redefine its mission for the modern era. there's a lot of questions over turkey and the russian antimissile system. there's also controversies over 5g in china. all of this is on the agenda to later convene here in london this week. alix: thank you so much. we want to turn now to brazil. president trump tweeted this morning he is reason stating tariffs on steel and aluminum from argentina and brazil, and again called on the fed to loosen monetary policy. with us from sao paulo

alix: thanks so much.er story i am watching for the last couple of weeks, like other star wars fanatics, there's one more day to get vintage memorabilia from sotheby's. they include a stormtrooper helmet from 1976 or $75,000. there's also autographed movie posters and props. not to mention, the latest film skywalker" opens next week. i have my ticket already, obviously. it is weird to be right next to that darth vader platter. coming up, david kohl, julius baer chief economist, will be joining us. after the dollar selloff yesterday, stocks moving higher. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ electrical buzzing ] [ dramatic music ] ahhhh! -ahhhh! elliott. you came back! ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." about 15 minutes away from the latest ecb rates decision. it is now christine lagarde's turn. we had a more dovish fed then we thought yesterday, and that moved the market. and other asset classes, the dollar took the brunt of the selling. we are seeing a bit of recovery there. i did want to point out what is happening

i am alix steel. the markets whiplash to earlier today on that headline that bloomberg roque that perhaps -- broke that we are still inching toward a tree deal. we saw a huge decline in equities and the bond market. we are reversing that a touch, futures up by .5%. 10 year yields are up by two basis points. yesterday we saw the biggest drop in 10 year yield since may 2018. it is time for global exchange. we bring you today's market moving news from around the world, from hong kong to vienna to u.k. and to washington. we are on the ground with all this morning's top stories. the u.s. and china are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase i trade deal according to people familiar with the talks. this to be expect reached before december 15. joining me is chief -- bloomberg's chief asia correspondent. >> we have some takeaways from our colleagues in washington and beijing. they are making the point that president trump's comments yesterday do not necessarily

alix: i am alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge," 30 minutes focusing on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. first, we kick it off with spot on. it is our take on the big story. it's a tale of saudi aramco and chevron. joining me is our managing editor of energy and of commodities, and rachel in houston. let's kick it off with aramco. testing a $2 trillion valuation on thursday, when will we get to know the real market value of the company? tina: we've had two full days of trading now. they went up to their daily limit of 10% and today they went up about 5%. for a few brief hours, they were trading at the magical $2 trillion level. that is the level that the saudi crown prince was looking for. where do we go from here? investors have told us they think it will increase by another 10% to 18% in the next week. on the other hand, we got a note today saying get out, it's time to sell. opinions are all over the place. alix: considering the difficulties the crown prince

i'm alix steel. s&p futures clinging to their gains, up by 0.3%. european stocks hitting a record high. global stocks friday closing at a record high. cable rate jumping out to the highest level, at least when it comes to the euro, since 2016. the euro climbing higher despite iffy economic data, particularly out of germany. yields in the u.s. backing up by about two basis points. will we had that 2% as we continue to get a trade deal? time now for global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world. from hong kong to beijing, london and washington, our bloomberg voices are on the ground with today's top stories. in asia, chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization and regaining some kind of growth momentum in november. china's industrial production and retail sales both meeting estimates. joining me on the phone is in an. current -- is enda curr give me some of the details in the data dump we saw overnight. enda: these clearly signal that the economy is endi

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel.waiting for the fed, waiting for the ecb, and waiting for trade. also the usmca. can it actually get pushed through in congress? 0.3%.tures down by about if you was like some of the optimism is coming out of europe, even though i am getting analyst note after analyst note about how europe could surprise to the upside. investor sentiment a little bit better. hitnight, the 10 year jgb zero, and then into negative territory. , 19 basisens spread point is where we set. about $24 billion coming at 1:00. in the currency market, we are all watching the upside in the cable rate. we have two days to go until the election. we have rate decisions from global central banks, not just the fed and the ecb, but also emerging markets. brazil on deck tomorrow. decotelli,is oscar and with a still is maria vassalou. what is the room for the central back to help stimulate? oscar: i think there's not a lot of surprise for what happens tomorrow. everyone expect another 50 basis cut. is brazil really doing th

alix: fairpoint.en chevron ends up having a write-down in natural gas assets , are other companies forced to do the same thing? who is this really bad for? now, if youight look at the driver of the write-down, it is low natural gas prices. companies will go back and reevaluate their reserves from an oil and gas perspective and determine if the book value is lower than the fair market value, and correspondingly have to write down their reserves if necessary. they do that every year, obviously, so we will see if anybody else has to. but the focus right now is more on the natural gas companies. when we look at investing in companies globally, as well as domestically, we are looking for the lowest cost producer. we really like energy infrastructure right now because there's no reserves to write down. you get enormously high dividend yields come over you can get 6%, 7% in you're talking about a treasury in the u.s., the 10 year at 2% or below, and globally, where there is very low interest rates. these are

: i am alix steel. to "bloomberg commodities edge," 30 minutes focusing on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. first, we kick it off with spot on. it is our take on the big story. it's a tale of saudi aramco and chevron. joining me is our managing editor of energy and of commodities, and rachel in houston. let's kick it off with aramco. testing a $2 trillion valuation on thursday, when will we get to know the real market value of the company? tina: we've had two full days of trading now. they went up to their daily limit of 10% and today they went up about 5%. for a few brief hours, they were trading at the magical $2 trillion level. that is the level that the saudi crown prince was looking for. where do we go from here? investors have told us they think it will increase and other cash -- by another 10% to 18% in the next week. on the other hand, we got a note today saying get out, it's time to sell. opinions are all over the place. alix: considering the difficulties the cr

alix: yes and no.you have the fuel, you need all of the refiners to be able to make that exact field. that has not happened. there are some refiners that can make multiple fuels. there are some that cannot do that. they need just this oil. you have to have a complete organization of the refiners in the products to make that happen. that is not the case. david: who enforces this regulation? alix: the country. all the countries are responsible for their own area and the port and you get fined. if you're not in compliance, you will get fined. whether that will happen or january 2 or mid march or april remains to be seen. there is money behind it so you have to fix it. one of the solutions is an open-loop scrubber, but the issue is you can also put sludge into the sea and the ocean. it leaves a lot of question marks in the shipping industry, a lot of difficulty getting supply and that will trickle through to us in some capacity. david: always great to have alix steel with us talking about bananas. [laughte

when it comes to big money, you have to think seriously about .hat good alix alix: the chinese did show are talks now? >> we are happy with the 90%. alix: that is a steep price tag . >> i see. we took a decision to only invest -- where we are the natural owners. nobody knows -- better than ourselves. cost,a very low living low cost, low risk, large reserve, everything you want. we are very happy. alix: a large part of that for you is asset sales. can you give me a sense of how your strategy is for that, as opposed using the public market, private sales, etc.? >> we are selling assets in which we are not the natural owners. assets in which others can do better than ourselves. for us they have been reducing low returns. and usesell the assets investments finance . use m&a deals, sometimes the market. petrobas made the first privatization in brazilian history to capital markets. a retail distribution company. it was very successful. petrobat was the ceo of ras speaking to alix steel at the new york stock exchange earlier on today. we will continue the conversation when it comes to commodit

alix: for them i think it would. you will not know what the real valuation is until you're able to get more flow or more liquidity in the market. it only sold 1.5%. not much liquidity to begin with. getting it externally would be huge not only for mohammed bin salman's plan, but also to get more people in it who traded. if you are an em fund, you still to buy the stock. it would be bigger if it was elsewhere. david: good news for aramco, good news for saudi arabia. good news for the energy industry. down in thea write meantime. what is that about? alix: you have aramco raising all this money, on the other hand chevron taking one of the biggest right downs in oil industry history. natural gas prices are so low they cannot make money. the issue becomes who else will do that and how bad does it get for producers who will go bankrupt, or exxon? they made a bet on natural gas? where is that right down? a very different scenario than saudi aramco. stay tuned. there is a lot coming. you can catch alix steel every thursday o

so everybody, cinder nichols to -- everybody, send your nickels to alix. here's the first thing we care about, the dot plot. take a look at the 2020 dots i've outlined in red. . it won't take much for them to move up or down. want to startle to get back to normalizing and raise rates next year, or do we want to see, expect to see people say and we are going to be cutting at least one more time next year? that is the market that. there will be a lot turning on the dot plot. one other thing jay powell is going to get asked about, and this is going to be important, i went to show this chart here.

alix: like walmart and target has, does not put a step over you?don't need you as much anymore? what do you notice? kristen: not necessarily because it was a subsegment of customers for whom this is a very attractive value proposition and they shot this way regardless of who is or who is not on our platform. they will shop with the people on our platform because they are very loyal to us. even if people get better at on the, we are playing increasingly in the in-store cashback space so we offer not only online but also in-store cashback. but also, there are groups and audiences that these retailers cannot reach without us. taylor: that was rakuten president kristen gall. coming up, help wanted. must work well with robots. the finance industry is looking for a few souls who can get along with metal colleagues. we will explore a.i. in banking, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: this is "bloomberg technology" global link where we join "bloomberg daybreak: australia" to bring the latest in global tech news. i'm taylor riggs with shery ahn in new york a

today the winner must be alix steel and her opec plus start. i am sure alix will have more on that.odities edge" coming up at 1:00 eastern time, 6:00 london time. coming up in the u.s., "balance of power" with david westin on bloomberg television and radio. republican senator rick scott joins the show to discuss the latest on the trade deal with china and the impeachment proceedings will come up as well. president trump saying nancy pelosi "had a nervous fit." that is the presidents reaction. there are markets in the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, kevin cirilli from capitol hill on speaker pelosi moving forward on impeachment. front of -- from vienna, annmarie hordern on opec meetings, and jennifer reed on the expanding scope of an ftc inquiry into amazon. start with you. speaker pelosi said we will move forward with articles of impeachment. we have a sense of

alix: so where are they shopping? be e-commerce, retail stores, and what areas are seeing the biggest uptick? >> we obviously saw a lot of really aggressive e-commerce shopping particularly centered around cyber monday this year. cyber monday was definitely the day, even more than black friday, the everybody came out to play. i think with the consolidated time between black friday, cyber monday, and christmas this year, it would change the patterns of consumer spending a bit. there was a bit of a lull while people got ready for the christmas season. this week, it is getting really aggressive again. this is one of the last days for people to shop online before christmas. what we will see this week is a gradual shift towards things like buy online, pick up in-store, and more in-store shopping or towards retailers like amazon that offer one-day shipping overnight. we do a few things that are attractive to consumers. we pay cashback on transactions that 3500 plus stores, which in its own right is attractive. the second th

alix: how do you make money?hback is definitely a real thing, some where you can make one for one. what's the business model? kristen: we have about 13 million members. it's a very large audience of people. companies pay us to send traffic to them. they pay a commission on each of the transactions our customers make and we share that commission with customers. it's a pretty easy, simple business model where everyone wins. they get the traffic and our members win in terms of getting the cashback. alix: if you have retailers that get better at their omni-channel, e-commerce section like walmart has and target has does that step over you? ,they don't need you that much anymore what do you notice? , kristen: there is a sub segment of customers for whom this is a very attractive value proposition. they shop this way, regardless of who is or who isn't on our platform. they will shop with the people on our platform because they are very loyal to us. even if people get better at omni-channel, we are playing increasingly

alix: nato leaders are wrapping up a gathering to mark the 70th anniversary.ssues discussed ranged from arms control to china. >> what a turnaround from president trump who went from criticizing nato to saying that theas obsolete, to saying u.s. was prepared to walk out to now defending nato, saying it's an organization that has worked well. >> it is reminiscent of having family over for christmas. nobody gets on. there's an argument. in the end, you are family. that's what we got to despite those open disagreements about the future of nato. what nato's role should be with russia, china. the nato statement itself was pretty benign. committed to a road forward, the value of the alliance, for all the members. nothing like the discord we thought would come from the meeting. >> angela merkel's government has been thrown into crisis. her coalition partners elected new leaders who are demanding a shift to the left. how much at risk is the grand coalition after the weekend's developments? >> one could say that the future is somewhat uncertain. this new leadership, th

i'm alix steel. welcome to bloomberg "commodites edge."us companies, physical assets, and trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices i

kicking things off is alix steel. the story of one line meaning many different things to different investors. the blue line is the federal funds rate. as it goes down, you see the blue bars go up those are inflows into bold etf. as it levels off and the fed is at neutral, they will not hike or cut, you are seeing outflows from the bold etf that echoes jp morgan's call they are buying risk and will be shorting gold, buying things like european equities, german equities, and em. the blue line is exactly why goldman sachs is bullish on gold the samei echoed thing, saying they could see 1600 next year. interpretations, but significant for the market. you can see the chart on the bloomberg at gtv . vonnie: i love it. well done. guy, what you have? guy: the msci index hitting a record early on today and this is a steep rebuke for all of those who talked at the end of the summer in august about the fact that we were heading for a global recession. this also ties back to the central bank story. why we have seen action com

: i'm alix steel.erg "commodites edge," 30 minutes focus on the companies, the physical assets, and trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. first, we kick it off with spot on, our analyst and in

i am david westin in for alix steel.res in the united states are strengthening. in the meantime, in europe, they sold off overnight. -- a rough dayy today in european equities. let's look at the cross asset board. the pound is still up against the dollar. the dollar is weakening against all g10 currencies. bold remains up over $1500 an ounce. crude is up. anna rolled -- on a roll. we have breaking numbers on inventories. --. wholesale inventories retail inventories are down .7% is what i have. the survey was for them to be up 1%. i do not have wholesale out yet. retail inventories down .7%. a look at of a surprise. michael: it is a surprise because you would've anticipated driven up because of the holiday season. what we may have seen is companies had purchased ahead of tariffs and they are starting to work off their stocks. it will be interesting to see how that leaves retailers going into the clearance sale season. we may not see as many sales as we did. david: in the meantime we did just get wholesale inventories. fla

i'm david westin, in alix steel. -- in for alix steel. there's not a lot of trading going on. over in europe. a lot of exchanges are closed. once again,s weaker fourth day in a row against the g10 currencies. crude has turned around and come down a little bit after a nice, long run. joining me for the entire hour is brooke sutherland, bloomberg opinion columnist. talk about a new year. carlos ghosn has a new year. brooke: he has fled from japan, gone to his homeland of lebanon, where his grandparents are from, and he does have citizenship there. it is very unclear how he got there because his lawyers are insisting they have all of his passports, and he just escaped in the middle of the night. david: japanese lawyers said, it wasn't my fault. big surprise to me. brooke: i think they don't want to be blamed for the fact he is gone. my bloomberg opinion colleague writing about this, wondering, does japan just not want the distraction with the tokyo olympics come up? david: sort of look the other way? brooke: who knows? david: he has apparently said he's eager to talk to the media

kicking things off is alix steel. new shipping rules are taking effect 2020. need to use lower sulfur fuels on their ships. that is causing a lot of distortion in the markets, whether it is refining margins or product pricing. i wanted to highlight one of them. this is singapore refining margins. the white line is for that refining that can process light oil, of which we have a lot of. for hydroine is packing refinery margins when you process heavy crude. both of the margins have been moving lower as you do not need the heavy crude to make the product that needs to be light. that is where the dislocation comes in. if you happen to have a souped-up refiner that can handle it, then you are good. otherwise you'll be hunting for crude and is light to turn into light product and there is a scramble to do that. that is hurting those refining margins. vonnie: thank you. always love to see your charts. you put a lot of detail in. next up? >> everyone is asking how long the bull market will go. i think i just found one. the white light is the spread bb bonds.b bonds an

i am david westin in for alix steel. the board. ,he dow, the s&p, the nasdaq they have had 10 days in a row up. even the russell 2000 is up. switching to the cross as a board. we can see the 10 year remains flat. a little above 1.9. the pound remains up against the u.s. dollar. gold over $1500 an ounce and crude is up. now we have vika data. initial jobless claims. 222,000. last month it was 234,000. not a dramatic change. let's bring back in romaine bostick and tobias levkovich of citigroup. tobias: i will not quibble. david: historically that is a low number. it is not spiking. tobias: we had a spike around the auto strike and that is backing away. we are back to a tight labor market. the number one issue facing businesses is finding quality labor. we have tapped out a lot of the most talented people. we have tapped out the highest skilled people and we are trying to drop people back in, which drives wage costs. we should point out continuing claims also fell to just under 1.70 2 million. the previous week it had reach

. ♪ alix: top 2020 trade. the top performers in 2019, will they be able to get the number year?ping rules take effect next year in january, is the role prepared? we speak to jeremy baines about how using biofuels for planes will be the next big growth driver. ♪ i'm alix steel. welcome to bloomberg "commodities edge." 30 minutes focused on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. first, we kick it off with spot on, our take on the big story.

he spoke about it with alix steel. about his outlook for 2020. >> production will continue to grow. it was a different year because the growth was very strong. we will see an upward trend, next year won't be so high. the output will continue to grow over the next four years for sure. and adding more supplied to the global economy. prices,will that do for if opec is not happy that there's a lot of non-opec production growth? has the't believe opec capacity to affect price. they can slow demand and global weekendbut demand is global supply continues to grow. so we have a low price. against a to protect low price scenario. this is the reason for pursuing efficiency. >> part of that you might also say is why the oil auction last month did not go well. what is your read on that? why did the oil majors not show up? >> i think brazil has to review its regulatory framework on oil. it's too complex. we have several things that are economy,in developing like the productions here -- oil companiesct ,an interfere with the contract

and pollution also blame all of our own alex for is why he joins me now for more on this good to see alix tell us more about these findings and what or who are to blame well this is being compiled by scientists working for the i you see and that's the international union for the conservation of nature and it's the largest report of its kind and what they are all warning people is that the warming seize on leading to dead zones that means there is no oxygen left and they've also highlighted 700 sites where there was virtually no oxygen left that's up from just 45 in the 1960 so you can see that there is has been a huge change over the last few decades now all fish need dissolved oxygen to survive but the launch of species need much more so for example chewed and sharks what do they do to get that oxygen now when they go to the shallower waters where they can get hold of the gas that though at least invulnerable to fishing that leads to a. another problem of overfishing and there is one other issue here and that is nutrient pollution it's something we've heard about in the past where chemic

alix: how do you make money? so where can you can make one for one. what is the business model?en: we have about 13 million members. a very large audience of people. companies pay us to send traffic to them, so they pay a commission on each of the transactions that our companies make and then we share that with our customers. so it is a pretty easy and simple business model where everyone wins. they get the traffic and our members mad when in terms of the cashback. like walmart and target has, does not put a step over you? they don't need you as much anymore? what do you notice? kristen: not necessarily because it was a subsegment of customers for whom this is a very attractive value proposition and they shot this way regardless of who is or who is not on our platform. they will shop with the people on our platform because they are very loyal to us. even if people get better at on the, we are playing increasingly in the in-store cashback space so we offer not only online but also in-store cashback. but also, there are groups and audiences that these retailers cannot reach withou

alix: -- david: we have had over $4 trillion finance capital expenditure we will have a productivitytigall or rate of return. it will cover the surface and cost. context -- where has the money gone? amanda: stock buyback. david: that is the biggest reason we have had the ongoing bull market in equity. it is a symbiotic relationship. you have the corporate bond issue financing stock buyback. it is what i call smoke and mirrors. you're talking specifically about the spread between triple c's and double b's. that is what happens. the canary in the coal mine. amanda: when you talk about a game of musical chairs, somebody does not have a checkered who is the somebody? they are very happy to have stock evaluation. who could suffer? david: who is holding onto the corporate tax? it could be pension fund, mutual funds. and a gamutmpanies of institutional investors. it is not a banking issue. the banks are in great shape. it is about the non-bank financial institutions. you get the spread widening. don't forget the financial markets are correlated with each other. once you get that and one par

alix: uber stock down 3%. london's transit authority refused to grant uber a new license.n, rider safety. it is still concerned that unauthorized drivers can manipulate the app to carry passengers. what is the possibility that uber gets taken off the street? >> it would be difficult to put a number against that, but it is pretty low that anything is going to change in the near future. uber has 21 days to appeal the decision. it said that it will. last time this happened, it was months before that appeal was initially heard in the court, and even if it lost that, it could take that to the supreme court, and then potential years before this gets fully resolved. all that time, it is able to accept new rides and operate on the street. paul: the embattled leadership of west bank is in the sites of australian regulators some 23 million times. can you give us a flavor of what this involved? >> there are a number of moving parts in this. the first is international money transfers. regulators in australia want to know about them, because they want to track the potential for money t

rafael onn, therese the british election and alix steel on the surge in shares.h peggy collins. what is going on with usmca? lawmakers are converging towards the vote at year end which is what they've been pushing for in the last few weeks. earlier we saw mexico agreed to some of the final changes that robert lighthizer was helping to arrange and away way the democrats would go for and nancy pelosi signing on yesterday. now we are barreling towards a vote which would finalize a deal that has had elements to it since last november. david: it looks like it is

steel.id westin, in alix the markets have been on a tear.te equities will go up again. the nasdaq up over 9000 now. futures up still further. in the meantime, the 10 year u.s. bond is really unchanged, down to just below 1.9% on the yield. the british pound is up on the west dollar, but it is not alone. the u.s. dollar is generally weaker against all of the various currencies. joining me now for the entire hour is romaine bostick, cohost -- of "what'dmiss you miss." the equity markets are going gangbusters. romaine: the narrative continues to be that investors are continuing to buy into the market or some of the long-term narratives. about a year ago, when we had that low on christmas eve back in 2018. ralliedk about it, we to the record high we hit in april, and since then, we hit something like 30 plus record highs on the s&p 500. so you have a market that continues to believe the trade narrative is getting better, the economic narrative is getting better. at some point, they think the fundamentals of some of the corporate profits are goin

alix: the senate plans to hold a --vonnie: the senate plans to hold a trial in the new year to decide whether he should be convicted and removed from office. or more, let's bring in emily wilkins from washington, d.c. the surprise isn't going to be in january, when the senate happens to hold its trial. there might be surprises that will emanate from that trial, however. what are analysts and your sources telling you? emily: right now, there's a lot of debate in washington about what we are going to see during this trial, whether or not we are going to see witnesses being brought for the senators. right now, there's been some discussion of that, but senate majority leader mitch mcconnell wants to try and keep this as short as he possibly can. there's been discussion about having no witnesses at this point. the white house has got a little bit back and forth, but it sounds like they might agree with that, so we might see a fairly short trial in the senate. vonnie: we are watching live pictures of mitch mcconnell speaking on the floor. what is the significance in terms of risk for the 20

. ♪ >> i'm alix

. ♪ alix: top 2020 trade -- oil, copper, or soybeans?formers in 2019, will they be able to hold onto their number one spot next year? seachange -- new shipping rules take effect next year in january. is the world prepared? and clean fuel claims. we speak to jeremy baines about how using biofuels for planes will be the next big growth driver. ♪