alix: alix: you have two things to work out. can you ramp up supply enough to deliver the dosages countries want in light of what has happened with astrazeneca and j&j? on the other hand, you are dealing with what kind of efficacy you need for the booster shot, the variants. how can you do both at the same time? >> we can. on the variant front, we currently have a boost strategy, one testing the current vaccine to understand what will happen when you do that. we have a very unique vaccine -- 100% of the genetic sequence of a variant as a boost to people who got the vaccine. and a mixed strategy, called two and one -- in one, and we think that this will boost what you already have in the new one. we put online the paper yesterday showing that that new boost has very, very nice protection against some strains. we are hopeful this will go to humans. we are in clinical trials. alix: in a matter of weeks. does that mean we could get this booster jab if we need it in the fall? >> that is the plan. best case scenario, like we talked ab

alix: really appreciate it. this was a lot of fun to break down with you, richard curtin, university of michigan research survey director. coming up, the global chief economist at goldman sachs young hot cs -- at goldman sachs jan hatzius. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel. this is "bloomberg markets." we just talked to the professor that runs the umich survey. he said what stood out is how positive consumers feel about jobs, that they feel great about it. they see the jobless rate declining, and that is fueling the rest of their sentiment. let's put that down even more. jan hatzius, goldman sachs chief economist, joins us now. always a pleasure to get the perspective. i don't know if you heard my last interview, but just how optimistic people are about the jobs picture, i am trying to get a sense of how long that lasts and how related. jan: h -- and how real it is. jan: hi, alix. always good to be on. i do think that is going to improve sharply in the coming months. the level of unem

this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel.s is the european close on "bloomberg markets." south africa's central bank will continue with accommodative monetary policy since it -- policy to support an economy ravaged by the pandemic. that is the message from the central bank governor. he spoke with dani burger of bloomberg earlier today. >> for as long as inflation -- the central bank will have more reasons to remove accommodations. [indiscernible] dani: so in that case, even as you perhaps see inflation moving a little but higher than that for .5% range -- that 4.5% range, even in that, cuts don't make sense. is that a way to characterize it? >> the forecast we have is that yes, we might be just over 4.5% in one of the quarters, but inflation will remain contained. but there are risks to the inflation outlook, and the risks are coming from the supply side. the disruption of global supply chains, rising oil prices, rising food prices. and we have seen that inflation start to pick up in the u.s. dani: i know the reserve bank onl

alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel. guy johnson is off today. we are counting you down to the rp impose on "bloomberg markets ." here's everything you need to know from europe at this hour. the fda and cdc press the pause button on j&j amid a handful of clotting cases. the pause is expected to be just a matter of days. j&j says it is proactively delaying rollout in europe. mandatory tighter restrictions on virus hotspots. the controversial law goes to parliament, putting the now fractious cdu/csu -- the now fractious cdu/csu union and focus. over in europe, you have european stocks up by 0.1 percent, but the real action is in retail, travel and leisure. what i am watching in terms of where the outperformance and reopening is going to be is euro sterling, up by 0.2%. if vaccinations are picking up in europe, mario draghi for example once a production hub in italy to rollout more vaccines, that is going to be good for the economy, so maybe vaccination trade moves from the u.s. to the u.k. and now to europe. we are seeing that play out in the curre

alix: live from new york, i am alix steel and we are coming you down to the european close. with everything you need to know from europe. the bank of france governor says the ecb could end cap in less than a year. angeline on other tools to support the economy. vaccine victory. pfizer will increase its second-quarter delivery to the eu by 25%, 250 million doses, just as german infections rise. >> what we are seeing now is vaccination rollouts have been picking up, and it is important to continue. alix: and summer hope, british airways sound optimistic easyjet ready to ramp up flights for may if there is enough demand. let's follow on that. that is moving the market. guy would be very happy. he is holding out hope for his summer vacation. the cac is outperforming, euro stock up. within the european equities, you see basic materials, travel and leisure, which we will get to one second. so euro sterling is put much flat, but how that relationship develops really tells us about the reopening. bank of america in particular said they think sterling gains will be hard to come by be

alix: fairpoint.o wrap it all up in terms of the infrastructure package, how do you think that evolves? it is going to take months and even years for any tax increases to come into play. how does the infrastructure conversation evolve in d.c.? courtney: it is going to take a while for this to come into fruition. we are going to be seeing some conversations between the administration and republicans trying to get that bipartisan provision. we don't expect them to be able to get a bipartisan deal. we do think they are going to have to do reconciliation to get this passed, and that is going to be a lot of negotiations within the democratic party between progressives and moderate democrats. they have to deal with the limitations of reconciliation. there are infrastructure and climate, not the easiest things to get done through a reconciliation package. the parliamentarian is going to have a huge role here as well. we are just going to be seeing negotiations for the next couple of months on tax provisions.

alix: [laughter] guy: no idea. alix: ted lasso.ought i was the one in the driver seat in terms of understanding the language around football. you've just completely throw me a loop. alix: amazing. apple tv. great series. jason sudekis. we will discuss. guy: alix will educate me, i am sure. let's take a look at what is happening in terms of where european stocks are finishing up the day. the ftse 100 down, the dax down, the auto sector and the chemical sector trading lower. the cac 40 has faded. air france, the details of its share capital rates. the french state now has 20.6% of air france klm. it looks as if that was much better than anticipated in terms of what happened with air france klm. i talked to ben smith, ceo, we will have some of that conversation in just a moment. ♪ ritika: this is the european close. i am live in the principal room. coming up, the good rx co-holding ceo. this is bloomberg. guy: just started to get details of the air france klm capital raise that was done last week. it now effectively gives the french s

alix: no doubt. i wonder, in the meantime, we still need those hydrocarbons over the next few decades. so as we transition, and european oil majors are a good example of those transitioning more quickly, do hydrocarbons become more volatile? are we looking at more volatile oil prices? is he going to make it harder to stomach for a consumer? john: i think there will be lower levels of investment in the hydrocarbons, in sources of hydrocarbons, probably by a loss in what you would call the sector of oil and gas. there will still be large amount of hydrocarbons, about 80% produced by state oil companies around the world. so i think the question of supply and demand being out of balance, and balance, the world of opec, all of those experiences since 1972, they will all be relevant for the future. we will not get stable prices. they will be volatile, and sometimes they will be stable. alix: so this is not like opec's last hurrah? john: i have been in the business too long to give them a last hurrah. [laug

alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." european auto sales soared more than 60% in march. the eu most probably won't renew contracts for the covenant indexing with astrazeneca and j&j, while german chancellor angela merkel pleads for more control. a strong china means strong european corporate earnings. you can really see that reflected within the market. the ftse 100 at one point crossing that 7000 mark. your stoxx 600 actually hitting other record, seven straight weeks of gains. banks and autos really outperform. you see some good numbers throughout the whole week, whether you're looking at daimler or lvmh. all of that in part due to strong sales out of china. so time is doing well on a gdp basis -- so china is doing well on a gdp basis. you can also see that reflected in the bond market. a tiny bit of selling, with yields moving higher. germany with a safe haven bid, up by about two basis points. we had ferocious buying across the board. this want to

alix steel is over in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." german inflation breaking back above 2%. the country's vaccination drive accelerating, with over one million shots delivered yesterday. that is a significant acceleration. nokia smashing past expectations as the transition to 5g drives growth. there is a bit of a wrinkle, the same one we are hearing from bmw, from cat, even from apple, chip shortages. airbus flying high in q1, but warns uncertainty lies ahead. we will hear from ceo guillaume faury. the dax is taking it on the chin. that's where the real pain is today. we are down, i think it is the car sector doing the damage. nokia was up more of a little earlier. still up i 9%. really strong numbers being delivered there. alix: i do wonder how much of it is centering around that chip sector. still a huge number, 6.4 percent. it's because of the supply shortages that inventories couldn't build as much, that exports couldn't happen as high as we expect. that always

alix: particularly in china.ber when we were looking for an ipo, you had a lot of private equity involved in that, a lot of vc money involved. so if you change what the rules are, ant will have to keep more of the loans on their books today gone more of the risk, that changes the proposition in terms of what money goes into this kind of companies overseas. we talked to a lot of investors during the time when this came down, and they said no, it is going to be fine, this is a one-off, etc. but i don't know. is that going to be true? guy: but i don't think this is just china. this is going to happen elsewhere. alix: but different, right? guy: think about jamie dimon's lecture last week. he spent a long time talking about the threat that is going to come to jp morgan as a result of fintech. that was basically a call to regulators, saying look, you regulated us. you've hit us pretty hard. we have done what you've asked us to do. but these guys over here are coming for us, and they are not as well regulated. alix: yea

alix: it is 10:00 a.m. in new york, 3:00 p.m. in london. i'm al -- i'm alix steel. guy johnson is off today. this is "bloomberg markets." killer retail sales. jobless claims dropped. solid across the board. yet, we are seeing the safety trade come out in markets. you have health care, consumer discretionary, and tech leading within the s&p. euro-dollar also pretty much flat. the euro broadly weaker, the weakest of the dollar index we have seen since march. also seeing very strong buying in the treasury market. the vix even calmer. if you get such great numbers on the economic front, you would expect the move into the dollar and selling in the bond market, none of which we are seeing right now. the question of course, what is actually priced into the market? we do have banks rolling out. citigroup up, but just slightly. bank of america did release billions of credit reserves. they do see a robust pipeline for the second quarter in terms of investment banking. citi exiting about 13 retail platforms across asia, and they say they see very healthy consumer, the best tha

alix: hardly.: markets actually work when the cost of making and delivering the product goes up. ultimately that flows to the consumer. sometimes it takes a while to do that, but it ultimately does. as investors, the people that put money into these project, have to get a return. otherwise the projects don't happen and impacts supply. the united states is one of the largest producers of oil and natural gas in the world. arguably, even after the pandemic, you would still impact prices if you raised it significantly. alix: thanks so much. good to catch up with you, doug suttles, ovintiv ceo. tune in later today for "commodities edge" for my conversation with the head of sustainable development over active in core. they are a miner, and they have to go green -- over at it in core -- over at glencore. they are a miner, and they have to go green. how do you do that? guy: this week has been amazing for the commodity space. alix: commodities are always amazing, number one. number two, you are right. [laug

alix: -- in the form of ppi. alix: exactly. in the u.s., we are focusing on that breaking news amazon. they do win over the union. they reached a majority of ballots cast, with over 1600 votes. . this could have been historic if you did have a union formed in the region. that would have been huge for the beginning of what we might see in terms of union fights against amazon, but it looks like that is not following through their. also within the markets, we are taking a look at what is happening with yields, with inflation. in terms of the overall market, we see safety still being on the back foot. you have industrials, energy all leading the way, but it is a pretty flat market overall. you're just looking at amazon right now. the vix pretty much going nowhere. yields pushing higher, but that seems to be more of a european story. nevertheless, amazon up now by 0.5%. guy: we are also getting the budget details coming out, the skinny budget if actively being delivered by the biden adminstration. the biden adminstration is seeking

alix: laura, thanks a lot. tune into our special on wednesday night for coverage of president biden's address beginning at 8:30 p.m. new york time. some breaking news from j.p. morgan. it says in an internal memo it will bring back all u.s. staff on a rotational basis starting in july. basically, they are saying to make arrangements. you are coming back to the office in july. guy: it is going to be interesting to see how that actually works mechanically in terms of social distancing and all of the other rules that we back in the office are dealing with right now. is that all sustainable? how do teams work together? it is going to be fascinating. alix: i am already starting to make someone states. isn't that great ash some lunch dates -- some lunch dates. isn't that crazy? guy: i'm not invited, but maybe one day. [laughter] what are we going to do next? we are going to talk earnings next. we may do a little bit of commodities as well. lisa shalett of morgan stanley is going to be joining us to give us her take,

alix: but i just -- you said it, though. alix: but i wanted to highlight it.t's our drinking game with transitory. that's twice now. this puts the fed in quite a tricky line today. on the one hand, they have to prepare for growth that could be coming from d.c.. they have been calling for fiscal. now they are really getting at. at the same time, the data is going gangbusters. we are seeing a lot of inflationary signs, yet they still have to be cautious. how do they, in their language, do that? nathan: i think what jay powell is going to do is underscore we are expecting some higher readings on inflation through the second half of this year, but we expect those readings to be, i will use the word now, transitory or transient, and as we move into 2022, our expectation is that inflation will be back down towards 2%. so i think you build into the markets and expectation that we are going to see some higher inflation, but we at the federal reserve are prepared to look through it. i think that is how you thread the needle of being able to absorb the strength without

alix: exactly. all of these industries in different parts of the world, i think it becomes more and more difficult. do you invest in them or just suck it up when it happens? i think that is the real challenge in terms of the budget. alix: also, in terms of oil in particular, they are under pressure not to spend a lot of money, but they still have to spend a lot of money in order to keep current production flat. not even grow production, but keep it flat. that is another wrinkle as well, an addition to spending on stuff like winterizing or alternative energy. chevron has a biofuel segment that is near and dear to your heart, which is very profitable, but still quite small at the end of the day. guy: in some ways, this is industry runoff. do you want to invest in that kind of business? do you take the cash and invested in the nexgen business? how much do you actually want to put into current jen business -- current gen business is a tricky question. alix: which is the whole question with the bp stock

alix: does that continue? only are there signs of spac feelings cooling a little bit, but then if you do see leverage reigned in or banks take a look at their books because of the archegos situation, what do you think happens for the rest of the year? betsy: as it relates to our forecast going forward, we are anticipating that we are going to follow a traditional seasonal pattern, which is that trading is the strongest in one q, and that that stays as you go through the year. so that is what is baked into our estimates. when we think about the year on year, we are anticipating that as we move throughout the year, we will have some declines. we go back to what i was mentioning at the beginning, that at the beginning of the quarter we were fully anticipating the full year was going to be year on year down, now we are more in the flat range with one q being strong. guy: -- with 1q being strong. guy: how does this change the narrative around the banks? betsy: as it relates to investment, trading is one piece of th

alix: wow. 10 years? to take a long time for you to get that wine i have sitting for you on my desk. in relation to your pricing power, do you feel positive in the short term? what kind of fairs are you expecting in the spring -- what kind of fares are you expecting in the spring and summer? gary: in the first quarter, our fares were still down in the 20% range, and i think we have to expect that it is going to be a very competitive fare environment for the foreseeable future. first of all, as we all know, right now there are too many seats facing too few passengers. economics 101 applies to the airline business for sure. the price is obviously would gets all of that in the balance. so every airline has money. every airline is trying to get out of this survival mode and work its way back to prosperity. you cannot be prosperous as an airline if you don't have customers. right now, the way to get customers on board your airplane is fly where they want to go and offer great service, but it's got to be at the

alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel. guy johnson is off. european markets are also closed today. u.k. prime minister boris johnson announcing a vaccine passport program to open up travel and a biweekly covid testing push for every citizen. who's to blame? heads will start to roll at credit suisse over multiple risk failures, from greensill to archegos. and technical retreat. goldman sachs closes its six month old short dollar call, while traders pricing one rate hike by the end of the year from the fed and four by the end of 2023. we are watching secretary yellen's speech expected to argue for a minimum global corporate tax rate. in the markets, everything in the green with the exception of energy because oil is off by about three dollars, weighing on the index. big tech really flying higher, record highs for the leica facebook, etc. -- for the likes of facebook, etc. dollar coming off a little bit today, so the pressure of a weaker euro is lifted, but will it be sustainable? the outperformer in the bond market is in the belly of the curve.

alix: 100%. thanks a lot.arkets are also weighing the economic outlook against the prospect of higher corporate taxes to fund president biden's spending proposal. for more on this plan, kevin cirilli, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. the news today is of some kind of corporate minimum tax and how you wind up taxing the country. kevin: precisely. treasury secretary janet yellen saying that in addition to advocating for a global corporate tax rate, they would stop the race to the bottom on who can have the lowest corporate tax rate overseas. she also noted that she believes in raising -- she believes raising taxes on revenue from offshore gains would fund slightly below what president biden is suggesting his info structure package would cost. back on capitol hill, senator joe manchin, democrat from west virginia, rallying the centrists, saying he's against filibuster reform, saying he's against raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, so this is just a lot of opening bids and markers being laid in what

alix steel is over in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." what do you need to know out of europe this hour? european stocks clawing their way back to a record high. it's taken over a year from the start of the pandemic to regain ground. credit suisse taking a $4.5 billion writedown from the fallout from archegos capital. in the u.k. come original antic -- in the u.k., virgin atlantic, british airways calling for a core door with the u.s. we will find out exactly when that could be happening. equity markets coming back today. yesterday, europe was off come of the united states to -- the united states having a very solid day. initially, clarity around credit suisse helping that stock, but not has started to fade. alix: come over. i have that bottle of wine for your birthday sitting next to my desk. [laughter] do it with that corridor. here in the u.s., we have that monster rally yesterday. we are seeing a bit of strength, but barely. markets kind of going nowhere fast. with

alix: fair enough. it does say something that the likes of morgan stanley or goldman sachs avoided the kind of losses that credit suisse didn't. where is deutsche bank right now in reforming its business, where credit suisse is going the opposite direction at this point? steven: it seems like those banks have turned some kind of corner here. they had a lot of growth last year, and they will have 20% growth this quarter, so it is really going well for them, and the changes they implement it in the investment bank should have some -- they them plummeted in the invest -- they implemented in the investment bank should have positive effects. guy: i appreciate that they managed to get out of this tight spot, and they seems to wriggle out of wirecard as well, which is a pretty big positive for investors. but they are skating pretty close to the edge right now, i would have thought, as they try and do this. it is working out right now, but is this delivering what it needs to from an investment point of view? in

alix: how do om here?e you going to use the money for that you just raised, and how do you grow then? robert: the primary area of focus is investing in the platform. we have a product engineering team of over 700 people. our cto was formally cto of ai at microsoft. our chief product officer came from amazon, a tenured executive at amazon before coming over. he ran all of amazon prime video, launched echo and alexa. we are using that team to build efficiency for our primary area of focus because if we create value for agents, that is the way we create value for shareholders. guy: just in terms of the ipo today, you had to cut the size of it. you had to cut the price. you talked about the fact that this will help you get to profitability and give you what you need to invest in business. the mechanics of this i think are a factor of timing. nevertheless, did you get what you want today? robert: the goal was never a valuation. the goal was a capital raise, and we met that goal and succeeded in that goal. with

alix: we definitely miss you. it was very active last week within the bond market, but even equities close to a record high on friday. it didn't feel like there was a lot of fanfare. we were talking about this earlier, when it comes to the deflated reflation trade. is that really it, or what was -- or was what we saw on the bond market really breaking down? you have ipo's, spac's, the best measure of liquidity and animal spirits in the market. what does that mean for the broader equity market? the 10 year yield up by about two basis points. the dollar is softer. goldman upgrading their euro-dollar call to $1.25. is the u.s. exceptionalism we saw dead? what is going on with it? guy: ecb thursday could be quite interesting from that central bank. are they going to be concerned again about a rising euro? i did pay a little bit of attention last week to what was going on. it did look really weird, really counterintuitive. we saw this move lower, basis points -- move lower, 50 basis points over the last 12 trading sess

alix steel is over in new york. we are now counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." game over. the european super league project is abandoned less than 48 hours after it began. fan fury and government pressure forcing key clubs to abandon the plan. the german constitutional court clearing the path for ratification of the eu's 800 million euro recovery fund. the eu releasing the first look at its new rules for what are sustainable investment in what is likely to become a benchmark for the rest of the world. we also now have legally binding targets. a big day for the environment ahead of what is going to be a key summit tomorrow, led by president biden. let's figure out what is happening here. european stocks starting to recover, bouncing back from losses yesterday. it doesn't feel that convincing, but there's green on the screen. the pound under a little bit of pressure. we are watching the dollar stabilize a little bit. we will talk about what is happening in canada in just a moment, but we ar

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, with guy in london.is "bloomberg markets." credit suisse a huge loser among the global banks in the archegos implosion. joining us now is octavio marenzi, founder and ceo of opimas, a financial consulting firm. how much will it take for them to deal with this, as well as greensill? octavio: they've said close to $5 billion for archegos. i think the bigger issue is there might be more of these lying out there, so there might be more skeletons in the closets. if this has been their approach to risk management, to take insane naked bets with hedge funds of this sort, there must be others. if they approved this, they must have approved some other crazy things. bear in mind, the markets have been really good over the past year. it has been quite difficult to lose money in equities over the past year. racking up these kinds of losses really makes you think, what happens if there's a correction in the market? what happens if the market goes down 10%, 15%? where is credit suisse going to stand then? guy: how muc

alix steel is in new york.are counting you down to the european close this friday on "bloomberg markets." the eurozone dropping into a double-dip recession, but with a strong summer recovery already priced, the markets and cyclicals are already starting to run two hot, running ahead of themselves. the eu hitting apple with a statement of objection for abusing its app store power. the case down to a complaint made by spotify, and days before that epic games/apple trial out of california. brussels will start testing vaccine passports in may. the objective is to be fully operational by june so we can have a summer season. we'll talk to the airspace giant safran, that makes engines, about a return. we are talking about the end of the last trading day of the month. european stocks absolutely unchanged on the session. as you can see, the single currency under a little but of pressure after that dismal but real looking data we got on gdp earlier on. alix: we also got really interesting data out of the u.s.. wages and

alix: it is alix in new york.rious as to one of the few central banks that are into raising rates, how anymore hikes will we see this year and how quickly will we see them? polina: we would be surprised to see another hundred basis points between now and 12 months from now. if you think about the objective of the central bank, the target is to reach real rates of 1% to 2%, we are at the bottom of that range. we could see up to 100 basis point increase over the course of the next year. guy: how should investors deal with this? what is the play in russia? a lot of people have been quite positive on russia for a while. does this change the speed of change alter that? polina: it does not. at the end of the day if we look at the valuations and rates, fundamentally russia is the strongest economy in emerging markets with 80% domestic gdp. affects reserves of over $600 billion. it is hard to find a country with a more bulletproof balance the -- with a more bulletproof balance sheet. i would say if it were not for the --

alix steel is over in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." with 30 minutes to go, earnings flood continues. gsk beats, but guidance is unchanged. elliott doing enough to keep them at bay. and cash for curtains. boris johnson is forced to focus on interior design rather than policy in a scandal over the refurbishment of his downing street flat. let's talk about what is happening in the markets, rather than interior design. it is alix's specialist subject at the moment. alix: no, let's talk about interior design. [laughter] guy: the stoxx 600 up by 0.1%. you just bought a new place. you must be having a similar problem, cash for curtains. alix: you know, curtains are actually quite extensive. at the shade store, you could spend upwards of $1600 for a curtain rod and a pair of curtains. that's crazy, no? guy: yeah, you don't want to buy one curtain, though, do you? alix: and they need to have the right panel width. it is a whole thing. ok, in the u.s., you've got fed, you've

alix: it is alix in new york.r if there has been lessons learned about previous m&a, like facebook buying instagram back in the day. now we have heard that twitter may be approached clubhouse. where there lessons learned previously, like you want to stay private longer? cary: if you think about it, there are major things and non-things that benefited by being public. i think the tide has reversed. the access to capital the public markets affords makes a lot of sense. also we are at a moment where public market valuations, even pa multiples, are in excess of private market multiples. that is very rare. we go back to the 2006 timeframe , it was very much the inverse and we saw a lot of companies going private. do not think any of this is unexpected at the moment. guy: alix brought up facebook and instagram, which brings me onto what comes next for the biden administration and the new regulatory approach likely to be taken. what kind of deals do you think are not going to happen under this administration? how differe

alix steel is over in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." the european medicines agency finds possible blood clot links to the j&j jab, but says the benefit-risk ratio still remains firmly in favor of the shot. we will take you to wear a press conference is about to start. armin laschet to become angela merkel's with placement as the center-right candidate ahead of elections. the cdu embracing efforts to cut emissions. we will get they reaction of easyjet's ceo. that stoxx 600 is down by one point 8%. the travel and leisure sector really under pressure as well. two sectors that have both been part of this reflation narrative really driving this of late. euro-dollar at $1.2049, still positive. alix: we are definitely following you over here, all major indices down. united was able to get specific numbers in terms of what kind of vaccination rate you would need to get at that pre-pandemic 20 level, but that is really not reverberating in terms of any kind of optimism. also,

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, with guy johnson in london.his is "bloomberg markets." we want to get a visual. with more is bloomberg's michael mckee chart is stunning. michael: youth inc. of it sort of like a balloon. you squeeze one area and it -- you think of it sort of like a balloon. you squeeze one area and it expands in another. two of the countries that have vaccinated the most, cases are going down, but look at what is happening in india. they are just exploding and having an and norma's problem. the prep -- having an enormous problem. the problem with that is if we have a country were to are many that don't have cases under control -- a country or two or many that don't have cases under control, that can mean variants, and that means problems around the world. israel and the united states leading the world in the major country category of people who are being vaccinated, but to get back to the point i just made, there are 83 countries with 0.5% or less, most of those with no vaccinations at all, so the globe still has a real problem

alix: so interesting. the past have spoken to a company doing just that in new york, helicopter taxes, how that would work. sort of transform the way you deliver and travel and move and commute. guy: so these things initially will be piloted. they take off vertically and lent and fly like aircraft. they will be piloted initially and i think the key thing here is there looking ultimately to be drones. that is when the real sort of sea change happens. we will see things become unppiloted and the regulatory story kicks in. alix: gets complicated. guy: it is going to be fine. this is "bloomberg." ♪ [ sigh ] not gonna happen. that's it. i'm calling kohler about their walk-in bath. my name is ken. how may i help you? hi, i'm calling about kohler's walk-in bath. excellent! happy to help. huh? hold one moment please... [ finger snaps ] hmm. ♪ ♪ the kohler walk-in bath features an extra-wide opening and a low step-in at three inches, which is 25 to 60% lower than some leading competitors. the bath fills and drains

alix steel is over in new york. we are now counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." gyms, non-essential shops, hairdressers reopening in england. how much of the 100 a billion pounds of saving -- 180 billion pounds of saving will be spent? darktrace confirms plans to list in london. the security firm's ipo could value the firm at upwards of 300 billion pounds. a quick look at the markets just to see where we are this monday. european stocks on offer, down by around 0.4%. as the u.k. starts to reopen, the pound is bid. sterling trading higher. alix: and in honor of that, i have labeled my title for you deals and chips. fish and chips? you are welcome. i thought you of all people would appreciate a bad pun. we are still over 4100 for the s&p. one stock to highlight, microsoft. huge deal when it comes to ai. we will talk about that later on in the program. the stock is still up. santa fe is done by 1% -- sanofi is down by 1%. there's a chip summit happening in d.c. starting at 12:00. no real resu

alix: is that not yet priced?nown about the strength of china and the infrastructure plan from biden for a while. alan: i do not think it is in terms of europe. investors are still skeptical about the vaccine rollout. the impact that will have on the recovery. brexit still sits in the background. i think the european market is still show me. i think if we do see 6% world economic growth, the u.k. will be the fastest growing country in 2022. the european block will still be attractive to investors going or were. guy: -- going forward. guy: what you do with the currency hedge? you mentioned the pound. the euro trading around 1.18 at the moment and having a material impact on returns. what is your position and what is your advice? alan: i am fortunate i am a u.k. investor so i do not need to worry too much about that. i agree with you. it is an issue. our view from a sterling standpoint is we think sterling will oscillate between 1.35 and 1.40 depending on the success of the vaccine scenario in the u.k. alix: at some

alix steel is over in new york. we are continuity down to the european ash we are counting you down to the european close on -- we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." ecb president christine lagarde confirming a sig. for can lay pasto -- a significant leave faster pace a bond buying. the ruble reacting positively. credit suisse to raise $1.9 billion after the archegos news. it is not exactly the most riveting day in terms of market activity today. the eurozone initially spiking during the ecb press conference, and then fading the move. we are now down by 0.1%. alix: like you say, super muted. the same thing here in the u.s. markets. one is the s&p 500 airline index. it is up by 0.3%. americans having a smaller than expected loss. southwest feeling very optimistic for those summer months. d.r. horton pretty much flat, despite strong quarterly orders. i did want to highlight the energy in the green plan. we had a norma's announcement out of the u.s. -- we had an enormous announcement ou

alix address that just moments ago. the earnings could have gone further, to the point about what is happening -- then we get to ubs, a shock. a significant shock. we were anticipating that would not be a material hit from archegos. maybe not material but certainly substantial. alix: morgan stanley, same kind of deal. ubs ceo spoke with bloomberg earlier today about the banks plan to review risk management. >> it is not only that we should demand it, it is also we should look at recommendations to come in in order to ensure an idiosyncratic event like this does not happen again. alix: joining us is andrew stimpson, head of european banks research at kbw, part of steeple. have we seen the worst of the arcade goes -- of the archegos hit? andrew: we have seen the worst. credit suisse will be the worst. credit suisse and ubs sing the last tale of the losses come through, partly in the second quarter. the really big bit that needs to come next is why did this happen, how did this happen? guy: my colleague put it beautifully

david: thanks, alix. we don't find much of a relationship between changes in capital gains tax rates and market returns. the simple fact is that there are much more important drivers of markets, whether it be head -- whether fed policy, what is happening with earnings. those are much more important than capital gains. the other really important point i would bring up is that taxable domestic investors are only 25% of the overall market. we are talking about 25% of market participants that might be affected by this. it is actually going to be smaller than that because it is only thoing than $1 million. the other 75% of market participants could easily step in and take advantage of any price dislocations that come out of this. there could be some short-term volatility, but don't think this is a big market driver. guy: a couple of other points that are really interesting. you talk about the fed and the business cycle. i am looking forward to the end of this year and looking at when this capital gains tax hik

this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, with guy johnson in london.s is "bloomberg markets." this is very much a decarbonization story. guy: part of the switch the auto industry is going throughout the moment. a key process in that, you see some of these other core metals as well in that process. but a record high in that space. you just wonder how we are ultimately going to deal with the shortage is showing up in some of these metals. alix: oh yes, super cycle, baby. the market still a bit softer, still a bit weaker. i do want to point out the canadian dollar gaining quite a bit. dollar-cad off by about 1%. the bank of canada upgrading their 2021 forecast, despite a resurgence of the virus in that country. coming up, george walker, neuberger berman chairman and ceo, will break it down. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body

alix: i talked about the iranian presidential election. bill: the current government, which by iranian standards seems more moderate than its opponents heading into the election. the current government would like to see some sort of a victory or conclusion to this because they are the ones who negotiated the original deal in 2015 when barack obama was president. they would like to have a win, but are sensitive to the idea that they are giving anything away. after punishing sanctions, they would like to see the u.s. takes steps. republicans and democrats in congress largely oppose the 2015 deal that obama made. there is a lot of skepticism over whether ron can be trusted. time now for commodities and chief where we talk to the commodities world. today, the u.s. ceo of -- here's the deal, no -- solids are lactose, fat, minerals and protein. at play are the two proteins in milk. -- makes of 80% of the milk breakdown. there are two types of the basic case and prototypes, -- new zealand says only al two proteins. australia and new zealand make

alix: what was the response? rachel: bp says the investors are still extremely important to its strategy. they say they are going to continue selling assets, across all majors, regardless of whether they have a net zero target or not. they also say regardless of the near-term emissions impacts from having a new operator taking over those assets, they see this as crucial to being able to invest in other projects that would hopefully help to lower absolute emissions. alix: really appreciated it. bloomberg's rachel adams-heard. time for commodity in chief, when we talked to one executive in the commodity world. today is the chairman and ceo of c3 ai. the future of artificial intelligence is vast, from predictive technology to cybersecurity to climate change. potential is everywhere. entered c3 ai, led by seybold. c3 ai provides the platform. the customer then uses it for expertise. they sell functions for management like inventory -- inventory and productive maintenance. if a piece of equipment needed a replacement

alix: so what is the question, how much do we rally? andrew: the micro is the want to watch over the next few weeks. you have a big rate of change, headwinds coming through everything that has a cyclical buy. the low base effects in q2 of last year, a big spike this year, and a natural rollover. it is all about the micro. things are starting to loosen at the margin. the one thing that is still encouraging is the fact that speculative positioning is not back to its all-time high so there is still fuel for people to drive the price higher. alix: i have a chart that shows that stockpiles are started to build high in shanghai. what do you look at to show this is where we are starting to see some inventory build or lack of demand? andrew: to your point, in china the window for shanghai is closed. the export window just opened the other day. people that have the ability to ship funds out are doing so in in small amounts. the other one is the new contract in china has also traded at a discount relative to the lma price which was not a situatio

alix: will kennedy. time for commodity escape where we talked to one executive in the commodity world. today, his firm has 15 years of experience in low carbon investments and scaled companies with over $5 billion invested in renewables. it typically invests in one of these, electrification of transport, grid resilience, green and fossil fuels like methane detection, agriculture, next-generation liquid fuels like diesel, and horizon resource use like smart meters. it has made investments in ev companies, free wire technologies, lithium royalty corporation. now it is going after hydrogen fuel cells. let me clean how these work the fuel cells take oxygen and compress hydrogen. that creates water and heat, then powers the motor of your car. they have quicker refueling times than a traditional ev. enter horizon fuel cell technologies. it uses this technology for commercial vehicles like buses and trucks. its influence goes from singapore to china. now there is a spinoff of horizon which will take that techno

hopefully alix steel will be back tomorrow., mick mulvaney will be joining "balance of power" with david westin on bloomberg television and radio. guy: i am off to bloomberg radio to do the cable show. normally with alix. we are going to talk about commodities. kailey: she is so jealous. guy: definitely missing out. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) ♪ david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. i am david westin. we start today wi

alix: have you been getting more requests or calls from other countries?round the world are scrambling. it's ramping up around the planet. i think people are worried. [indiscernible] alix: it looks like you have two things you have to work out. can you ramp up supply enough to have the doses needed, and on the other hand you're dealing with what kind of efficacy you need for the booster shot, the variants. can you do both at the same time? stephane: yes we can and we are doing that. on the variants front, we're currently in a boost strategy. [indiscernible] we also have a very unique vaccine. [indiscernible] alix: does that mean we can get this booster jab if we need it in the fall? stephane: that is the plan. best case scenario. regulators have given clear guidelines. we know what we need to do to get the boosts authorized. we are working towards getting those boost available for the fall. we are boosting in the fall and winter. alix: you talked a lot on your investor day for vaccines about how it will be a pandemic. it will not go away. an epidemic, not

alix: have you been getting more requests or calls from other countries? governments around the world are scrambling. as you see, things are ramping up around the planet. europe, and southern. i think people are worried. the situation of covid has changed because we thought it was worse a year ago in terms of what kind of safety profile there would be. [indiscernible] alix: it looks like you have two things you have to work out. can you ramp up supply enough to deliver the kind of doses that countries want, particularly in light of what's happened at astrazeneca in j&j? then you are dealing with a kinda you need for the booster shot in the variants. can you do both at the same time? stephane: yes we can and we are doing that. on the variants front, we're currently in the clinic preparing a boost strategy. one is testing the current vaccine in people according to clinical studies a year ago to understand what will happen when you do that. we saw a very unique vaccine. it's 100% of [indiscernible] it's a boost to people that are being primed with vaccine one

rishaad: the imf chief economist speaking with alix steel. a covid vaccine startup is going public in a $5 billion spac deal. the british firm will combine with see a health care cooperation, and no equity placement, securing $300 million in a loan and an additional $100 billion involving credit lines. julette: let's get more on the imf growth outlook and implications on the credit market, bringing a hit for asset class strategy. jp private bank, great to have you with us. your thoughts on the forecast hear from the imf and what she was warning about, about the divergence in rebound as we see some countries not rolling out vaccines as fast as the likes of the u.s. >> yes, good morning, thank you for having me. i think it is definitely important that we are getting the endorsement from the imf. definitely, i think the vaccine is one driver behind a very rapid position up in growth outlook. as to the applications to the credit market or fixed income market in general, we do feel that this will further drive up the u.s. treasury yields as we hav

alix steel is out today. this is the european market close.s important in europe this hour. travel stocks jumping as the european commission's ursula von der leyen says american tourists are welcome this summer. mario draghi laid out how italy will spend the eu recovery fund. the big question, could rome spend that money effectively that is a huge moment for italy, also for the eu. and vowel-mageddon. that's what i'm calling it. aberdeen standard releasing their new name which is pronounced aberdeen, but spelled abrdn. european equity markets being driven by the banks today. travel and leisure stocks are also having a fairly solid day as well.

alix: as you look forward, what are the warning indicators you look for?kind of numbers are you watching on a day-to-day basis? gita: again, the number one number we watch is everything to do with the pandemic. especially news of any kind of new variants. any ones that will evade the vexing. that would be a nightmare scenario and would lead to a big downgrade and growth. that would set our statistics. the other thing we are watching is numbers on inflation, inflation expectation, because we know that has an important effect on infrastructure around the world -- interest rates around the world. that has applications for all -- has implications for all other countries. financial conditions, how sanguine they are, if you see tightening, these are the kind of things and variables we are looking at. haidi: chief economist speaking with alix steel and guy johnson. we have breaking news on samsung. first quarter earnings. it looks like a confident beat across the board when it comes to the first quarter operating profit, coming in at 9.3 trillion one estimates. 8