allan lichtman is professor of history at the american university in washington. he's known for calling correctly eight out of the last nine us elections and he would argue, due to a technicality, it is actually nine out of nine. i asked him what he made of all the issues over the debates. i can't understand why donald trump wants to avoid debates. leave aside my prediction as we will, just looking at conventional analysis, he is way behind. he needs to change the game. avoiding debates won't do it. and by the way, there is precedent for, in essence, a virtual debate — 60 years ago, one of the kennedy—nixon debates was held virtually. nixon and kennedy and the moderator were all at remote locations, and theyjust had a screen of the two of them together. certainly, understandably, there is less opportunity to interrupt and bully, if that is what trump wants to do, but they did not serve him well in the first debate.

professor of perfect presidential predictions that is the title that we have given professor allan lichtman because he has correctly predicted the winner of every u.s. presidential election since 1804 mr smith is also a history professor at american university in washington d.c. the president is good to have you on the show when we spoke last in early august you predicted that joe biden would defeat donald trump in the vendor now it's almost of imber and you have not changed your mind do you mean to tell me that nothing has changed about this race this campaign about the u.s. in the last 3 months. absolutely not i made my prediction which as you point out my predictions have been successful since 1984 based on my 13 keys to the white house which gauge the fundamentals of a presidential election that is incumbents are judged by their record and the keys gauge the strength and performance of the party holding the white house and nothing that has happened since early august has caused any keys to flip in favor of donald trump the way my system works is if the party holding the white house lose

professor of perfect presidential predictions that is the title that we have given professor allan lichtman because he has correctly predicted the winner of every u.s. presidential election since 1804 mr lippman is also a history professor at american university in washington d.c. the president is going to have you on the show when we spoke last in early august you predicted that joe biden would defeat donald trump in november now it's almost of imber and you have not changed your mind do you mean to tell me that nothing has changed about this race this campaign about the u.s. in the last 3 months. absolutely not i made my prediction which as you point out my predictions have been successful since 1984 based on my 13 keys to the white house which gauge the fundamentals of a presidential election that is incumbents are judged by their record and the keys gauge the strength and performance of the party holding 'd the white house and nothing that has happened since early august has caused any keys to flip in favor of donald trump the way my system works is if the party holding the white house

allan lichtman is professor of history at the american university in washington.of the last nine us elections and he would argue due to a technicality it is actually nine out of nine. i asked him what he made of all the issues over the debates. i cannot understand why donald trump wants to avoid the debates. looking at conventional analysis, he is way behind. he needs to change the game. avoiding debates won't do it. and by the way, there is a precedent in essence for a virtual debate 60 years ago, one of the kennedy—nixon debates was held virtually. nixon, kennedy and the moderator were at remote locations and they had a screen with the two of them together, certainly there is less opportunity to interrupt and bully, if that is what trump wants to do, but they did not serve him well in the first debate. interesting. how much difference do you think these debates can have? none at all. there is no predictive value in the debates. hillary clinton won all 3 debates according to scientific polls quite handily, she still lost. barack obama was trounced in the first de

allan lichtman has professor of history at american university and he's known for accurately predicting there come all the elections and is still calling this one for joe biden. my prediction is based on my 13 keys to the white house which has been correct since 1984 and the keys to gauge the strength and performance of the party holding the white house in other words the big picture of governing not the campaigning counts and absolutely nothing in this debate has changed the big picture of governing on which my prediction is based certainly this was a vastly better that they saw see donald trump was not interrupting and growing but in terms of the issues and the argument absolutely nothing new came out in this debate you heard the familiar arguments on both sides i don't trump calling biden a career politicians done nothing all these years out of hating him for the crime bill blaming he's going to bankrupt the economy with this climate change plan and in turn joe biden jodie that donald trump botched the coronavirus pandemic and has no plans to put the only way that i thought the most

the day after the election to win let's see if your prediction held true this year professor allan lichtman professor of history at american university joining us from washington d.c. professors always going to talk with you thank you. same here you know where to find thing. a fresh attempt to end the fighting between armenia and azerbaijan has collapsed just minutes after a new cease fire came into effect monday morning both sides accused each other of violating it the truce which was brokered by the united states was the 3rd attempt to end the conflict over the disputed nagorno-karabakh region fighting broke out in the mountains on klav 4 weeks ago. our correspondent julie ahana has more tonight on the civilian toll of this talking slick she sent us this report from the town of barga in eyes or by john it's about 20 kilometers from the front wall. fires aliya of shows us where he used to live until very recently. to see a rocket hit his house in early october he says worked so. hard to build quality going to be sure that. his home for 35 years burned down to the walls. to their work or wh

to be major global polluters like kimberly how did that thanks so much for that let's bring in allan lichtmanhe's a professor of history at american university joins us from washington d.c. professor lichtman is well known for predicting the winner of every u.s. presidential election since $984.00 well this year he's calling it for joe biden good to have you with us so has anything that we've seen tonight in tonight's debate changed your expectations for the election result. so really not my prediction is based on my 13 keys to the white house which has been correct since 1984 and the keys are gauge your strain and performance are already holding the white house all the words the big picture of governing not repair creating house absolutely nothing in this debate has changed the big picture of governing on which my prediction is based nothing that they are great say or do during the campaign tilts the record do you think it would be impacted by anything that's happened tonight. i can't imagine certainly this was a vastly better debate than the 1st one is so many of your commentators have said

the day after the election to win let's see if your prediction held true this year professor allan lichtman professor of history at american university joining us from washington d.c. professors always going to talk with you thank you. same here you know where to find thing. a fresh attempt to end the fighting between armenia and azerbaijan has collapsed just minutes after a new cease fire came into effect monday morning both sides accused each other of violating it the truce which was brokered by the united states was the 3rd attempt to end the conflict over the disputed nagorno-karabakh region fighting broke out in the mountain song for weeks ago. our correspondent julie holland has more tonight on the civilian toll of this conflict she sent us this report from the town of barga in eyes or by john it's about 20 kilometers from the front wall. fires a live shows us where he used to live until very recently. to see a rocket hit his house in early october he says were it so. hard to build quiet off base sure that. his home for 35 years burned down to the walls. there walked over to the whole

if allan lichtman is making predictions early in the fall, it might not be in time to get some of the changes in the shifts in the campaign dynamics. >> we have a couple of questions that are similar. one is asking about the impact of the proliferation and wide adoption of social media and what that is done for polling, and also looking at facebook in some news accounts appearing to take sides politically in some of the decisions whether to advertising and fact checking. how do all of those things had an impact on polling? >> it's hard to measure the impact of social media although it's pretty clear that must be some kind of impact. all kinds of people on twitter, facebook, instagram, et cetera. it's intriguing pollsters have tried to figure out a way which they could tap some of the social media posts and try to figure out whether social media is a a leading indicator of changes in public opinion. and researchers are, that from a number of different directions. there's nothing yet that is real clear or persuasive that social media, particularly twitter, is a good predictor of shifts