but, look, alex, what allen and other modelers like jim campbell, professor jim campbell at sunni buffalois that it's not that campaigns don't matter. of course campaigns have some effect. it's that the fundamentals drive the vast majority of the vote. most people don't believe this, but it's absolutely true. under 10% of the people who will actually show up at the polls in november right now are undecided. that right, more than 90% of the people who vote have already made up their minds. will there be a few switchers? in 2008, 8% of the voters changed their minds. what was the net effect? zero. about the same number of obama supporters switched to mccain as mccain supporters switched to obama, and in the vast majority of cases they were switching back to their own partisan identification. >> well, you're absolutely right. it's always been said that elections come about dodown to middle 10% of the country. here are the fundamentals, a president's approval rating in midyear, the economic growth as evidenced by second quarter results and whether either party is seeking a third consecutive t