[applause] >> allen sinai. >> while allen is standing up copies participated in virtually all of thesesince the year 2000. allen sinai >> thank you for inviting me this year and the other years. it is a pleasure to participate. the work i did for this session -- we did, paul adelstein senior economist at the company myself, it spans both administrations and it's all about policy, not about politics, and so any grades anybody might infer from the work here has to do with the effect of policy on the economy during the 2007 to 2009 period. and what we have today and you have a handout of tables and charts is an abbreviated version of the paper and key results from retrospective counterfactual simulations with a large scale quarterly macroeconomic model. the following question is asked what would have happened to the economy, employment and unemployment rate, inflation and profits, interest rates and stock prices, some of the tables covered that much territory. from 2007 to 2009, the period that we could call a great recession if the fiscal monetary policy actually implemented had not been

[applause] >> allen sinai. >> while allen is standing up copies participated in virtually all of these since the year 2000. allen sinai >> thank you for inviting me this year and the other years. it is a pleasure to participate. the work i did for this session -- we did, paul adelstein senior economist at the company myself, it spans both administrations and it's all about policy, not about politics, and so any grades anybody might infer from the work here has to do with the effect of policy on the economy during the 2007 to 2009 period. and what we have today and you have a handout of tables and charts is an abbreviated version of the paper and key results from retrospective counterfactual simulations with a large scale quarterly macroeconomic model. the following question is asked what would have happened to the economy, employment and unemployment rate, inflation and profits, interest rates and stock prices, some of the tables covered that much territory. from 2007 to 2009, the period that we could call a great recession if the fiscal monetary policy actually implemented had not bee

economic forecaster allen sinai spoke for many. >> we'll get positive job creation in the next month or two, and we'll have a surge in jobs when census workers come to work. but beneath that, the underlying growth of jobs in this country looks to me to be very anemic, another kind of jobless recovery like or worse than ones we've had before. >> reporter: so, are you imagining a steady-state for the american economy with unemployment at 8%, 9%, 10%? >> its probably peaked at about 10%, but we wont see 8% at least until 2012. >> this is still one hell of a depressed economy. >> reporter: paul krugman is typically pessimistic, as well. >> who's going to want to expand? who's going to want to build an office building when we've got record vacancy rates? who's going to want to build a factory when we've got near- record excess capacity in industry and down the line? so why would you expect hiring in this environment? >> reporter: now, there were economists here who saw light at the end of the tunnel. northwestern's robert gordon. >> there's reason to hope that unemployment is going to com

economic fecaster allen sinai spoke for ma. >> we' get positive job creation in the next mon or two, and we' have a surge in bs when census workers come wo. but beneath that, the underlng growth of jobs in this count looks to me to be ve anemic, anotr kind of jobless recovery like or worse than os we've had befo. >> reporte so, are you imagining a stdy-state for the american economy with unemployment at 8%, 9%, %? >> its probably peakedt about 10%, but we wo see 8% at least until 20. >> this is still o hell of a depressed onomy. >> rorter: paul krugman is typically pessimistic, as we. >> who's goingo want to expand? who's going want to build an office building when we've g record vacancy res? o's going to want to build a factory when we've gotear- cord excess capaty in indust and down the line? so why would you expect hing in this vironment? >> reporter: nowthere were economts here who saw light at the end of the tunnel. northwestern robert gordon. >> there's reason to hope th unemplment is going to come down substtially in 2010. first,ll the outlook for g.d.p., the tal amount of pro