the global chief investment officer and ceo of allianz global investors. it manages 442 billion euros. day in, day out, we talk about fed, will they hike? does it matter whether they hike in june? the world is not ready for a hike. the u.s. maybe but they could wait a little. >> i guess they could. unemployment is at low levels. there are risks on the tray de side. the dollar has been weakening. overall, the fed would much rather have rates higher. so would we, by the way. we need higher rates. i think, yes, absolutely. the market is anticipating putting on a 50% probability of one increase this year. the fed would like to her three. the truth is somewhere in the middle. -- the fed would like to or three. -- two or three. francine: you would welcome an interest rate hike because of the returns. the world is waiting for a normalization of monetary policy? and that is what we need. ern is you look at risks -- you look at brexit. we do not know if it is systemic. we do not know if this country would vote outside you look at the u.s. election. china, the risks

joining me now is allianz chief economic adviser, mohamed el-erian.eeted out to everybody he's going to make his latest call on whether we see the fed move. pull the trigger on a rate hike come, what is it, june 15th? what do you think? >> yeah. i think definitely by july. june is a bit i have-ish -- if-ish not because of the domestic economic conditions. if it were only up to the u.s. economy, the fed would hike in june. but the global economy, the risk is high. so i think definitely july, maybe june, but definitely by july. liz: okay. definitely by july. now, when you look at the issues that are happening, look, today we got what i saw was an april consumer spending number, highest in six years. we got good home prices moving, oil is moving higher. what is the fed so afraid of, mohamed? >> so, again, the u.s. economy at 2-2.5%, that's what numbers are pointing to, says go ahead and hike. the fact that we have repriced the fixed income market and that the equity markets have done relatively well, has been orderly, that also is a green light to hike.

allianz's cfo. guy: up next to look at the potential corporate movers. guy: that is london. and that is berlin. caroline hyde i think i will be following you to berlin very shortly because it looks lovely. caroline: it is dreamy. it's been solid fun since i've arrived. would like to say it's down to me but i doubt it. overall it is sunny and we will see how the dax performs on the morning. >> have heard a rumor that you have a bicycle that we will talk about that later. arounde hyde pedaling berlin but we need more information. as you say, it's a lovely day in berlin. what's been happening in asia here is shery ahn. >> a mixed picture here in asia. lacking clear direction, japan giving up its earlier gain, it did manage to figure in positive territory. percent200 rose half a gaining for five consecutive days and we are also seeing surges in the philippines with more than a 3% rally for the second consecutive day after the declared victory in the presidential race. despite experts showing the declined more than 50%. a few minutes more to go for the shanghai composite getting

the firm says allianz will control a 3% stake in the bank. and let's look at a how this was effecting others. banco popular up 21.2%. and of course when we talk about the big gains we saw in wall street and the european equities over the last few day, investors keeping an eye o to the gains we've been watching in oil prices. crucial here when we talk about psychological levels of course. we saw brent cross above $50 a barrel for first time in quite a while. so a lot of people wondering is this it? are we full-time going to get a prolonged rally here. still questions. the supply, the fundamentals, yes there was a surprise draw down in u.s. stocks. others saying we've been here before. this has happened. we know non opec supply has been declining but there are still demand questions. nevertheless psychological impacts are crucial and as we see here. brent crude up just above that $50 barrel level. and wti extremely close now. >> so if oil stays above 50 does that mean necessarily that some producers are going to be increasing supply? because th

scarlet: let's dig in to german insurer allianz. profit did drop to 17%.outflows. >> in asset management, outflows, the outflows actually now at market level and pimco i think is fully on track with -- in the field of active fixed income management. the costs will naturally be better in the following quarters as we have still some special incentive plans which are booking in the first half of the year in which we will not -- in the second half of the year. the cost-income ratio will see a natural improvement. plus, we are very confident as i said already last quarter that pimco will return to positive net inflows in the second half of the year. it is very much in fashion in the banking industry, we are not announcing any special cost-cutting programs in our businesses in pnc or life business. >> softbank is rising the most in three months. even posting, after posting a massive drop in earnings. profit diving by almost a third. what can we read into the softbank results? sprint seems to be such a drain on them. >> that's right. sprint remains a thorn in the

. >>> the asset management arm of allianz pimco reporting 10.1 billion euro it's in first quarter.hus the group is expecting an improvement in income cost ratio in the second month. they're insisting that management is good enough to achieve a turnaround. >>> tui has announced plans to sell its specialist unit in holiday plans, leaving just its main tourism business. tue reported a loss of 740 million uros in the first quarter. but reassured that they have a growth of at least 10% this year. >>> goldman sachs now lifting its gold price forecasts. this comes on the back of lower expectations that the federal reserve will continue to hike rates this year. the bank also cited a weaker u.s. dollar. the group raised it's three-month billion forecast to 1,200 per ounce. just giving a check on gold prices as they stand. gold higher by 0.5%. again, gold prices continue to keep an eye on the dollar. >>> let's give you another check of oil prices which continue to drive, present crude up many 0.9% and wti crude up 1%. we're seeing that coming off the strong gains there and that of course wei

germany got a lift from the likes of allianz. when we come back, he's been called the most important lobbyist for the self-driving car industry. he's the head of a new group that includes ford, google, uber and lyft and volvo. then bill ackman sits down with scott wapner on "the half." don't miss that. but stealing it only took a few days. female announcer: protect your money. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. before you invest, investor.gov. (p...that, you haveit, wait! yoto rinse it first like... baked-on? it's never gonna work.alfredo. dish issues? cascade platinum... powers... through... your toughest stuck-on food. so let your dishwasher be the dishwasher. e? told you it would work. cascade. >>> here is your cnbc news update. the family of the late music icon prince headed to court northis morning. the singer died without leaving a will. his multi-billion dollar estate will be divided among his six siblings. his cause of death is still under investigation. it is feared pres

anna, your limit of a -- you have a little bit of allianz.nna: we are getting comments on that part of the business. they havebe crucial, been struggling to stem the outflow from pemco over the last few years. the assetso reverse under management. outflow peaking following the resignation of the ceo. always interesting to talk to this type of business above the low interest rate environment and how they are managing to cope with that, and the competition. interesting to look at the details of their numbers, talking my third party profit falling. that is compared to december the 31st. they give us some guidance for full-year operating profits. so, some guidance on the feature and some comment about outflows coming through from that company. now, speaking life to the "on the move" team coming up in terms of these earnings. quickly, let's pull up the risk radar. since januaryyen maybe a little bit overdone. little bitlike a excessive. the dollar index, despite goldman sachs talking about that going up. the new zealand dollar, that has been movin

all the ons -- allianz will reach its 2016 outlook. now for our bloomberg quicktake, where we provide context and background on issues of interest. puerto rico has taken on ballooning debt and tumbled over the fiscal cliff, but solutions are not cut and dry. here is the situation. puerto rico has giant debt levels and will default on its most recent bond payment. next up is a payment due on july 1. the debate in washington is brewing over how to move forward since puerto rico is not allowed to use bankruptcy to restructure debt. congress is struggling with the bill that could restructure debt. in march, the u.s. supreme court has arguments on whether or not puerto rico could reinstate a local law to reinstate talks with lenders. here is the background. things -- banks ranked in the the and million dollars in fees. economic conditions changed when the u.s. gave special tax breaks to the island. since then, the economy has contracted every year, except for one. it is on track to hit a 100 year low by 2050. curious argument. republican la

that the state of california did not have the authority to require global insurance companies like allianz and generally who defrauded holocaust victims out of billions of dollars of insurance policies. he held the state of telephone did not have the power to require customers to produce records about their treatment of holocaust victims during that period of time. and what was unusual about the decision, it was the first time he decided no precedent preempting a state law based upon the so-called policy of the executive branch. there was no statute, no constitutional provision, no treaty. and they were for the sense in that case. the dissent was written by justice ginsburg joined by you, just as deluded and justice thomas. this was a case where, despite the lack of precedence, it seemed to me the majority went out of its way despite the context to put holocaust victims at a disadvantage after elected governments have done what they could within the regulatory authority to hold these, international company accountable based upon no precedent whatsoever, infringing traditional notions of fe

here now with a look ahead, christina cooper from allianz gobl inve global investors.nd the bow tie is back. remember last time he had on the -- >> he had on a straight tie and we thought something was terribly amiss. >> the market was toppy. >> was that strategic? >> strategic. >> if i was going to wear one, i want one to spin around. they don't make those, but that would be so great. talk about stocks and have it spinning around. that would be so -- it's monday. we have a 3:45 wake-up every morning. anyway, so hans, no recession. and a couple of numbers that came out, retail sales and -- both of those convince you this is pretty good where we are? >> yeah. if you look at the numbers, definitely no recession. in fact, last week the gdp line of fed is where we are tracking q2, close to 3%. i think it is 2.8%, something like that. so you definitely if you look at consumer activity, you look at, for the most part, business activity, small business confidence, no recession in the u.s. this year. so that should be off the table, which means, i would think, that every fed m

that the state of california did not have the authority to require global insurance companies like allianzhe held that the state of california did not have the power to require those companies to produce records about their treatment of holocaust victims during that period of time. and what was unusual about the decision, it was the first time he cited no precedent preempting a state law based upon the so-called policy of the executive branch. there was no statute. there was no constitutional provision. there was no treaty. and there were four dissents in that case. the dissent was written by justice ginsburg joined by you, justice scalia and justice thomas. so -- and this was a case where despite the lack of precedent, it seemed to me the majority went out of its way despite the context to put holocaust victims at a disadvantage after elected governments had done what they could within their regulatory authority to hold these foreign and international companies accountable based upon no precedent whatsoever, infringing traditional notions of federalism as well as separation of powers, and