jonathan: joining us now is brian weinstein, tony rodriguez, and amanda lynam. let's start on the fed issue and the geopolitics. how do you think the energy story is influencing the fed's thinking? amanda: thanks for having me. our economists are expecting fed liftoff in march with seven consecutive hikes through the course of 2022, 25 basis points each. their base case is not for a 50 basis point hike. as you can see, a lot of uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape. leaving that aside, the fed is focused on inflation at this juncture. drilling down under the surface, some of the geopolitical concerns actually have the potential to drive an increase in oil prices. that could move things under the surface. i will defer to our economist for their forecast for this year, but the base case is liftoff in march, seven hikes, 25 basis points each, balance runoff in june. jonathan: the new york fed president spoke moments ago, and it is fair to say that he poured some ice cold water over that perspective. we have opportunities to take policy actions over this year sta