. >> amrita, good to see you this morning. i'm looking at the volatility in the oil price and wonder if we should be more concerned of nigeria given that production is at a 20-year low now. you have the military attacks and the attacks directly on the pipeline, should this be more at the top of the agenda? >> i do think so. the latest counter in nigeria is the production is a million barrels per day. usually they produce about 2.2 million. so that is a record low. and now there are threats from the unions that look at the security needing to improve, and if it doesn't they will pull their workers. this should be at the top of the agenda because it is not about the low oil prices but about the geopolitical backdrop and how the government is dealing with them. and clearly this is a huge risk to the market. >> i also want to ask you, amrita, about the increase in oil and gas bankruptcicies. i was looking at data by reuters, more than 60 last week. so they are arguing with the recovery in oil prices towards $50 per barrel that it

. >> amrita, hi, going back a year, 2015, we initially saw a bounce to oil heading into the year andlf way into the year a drastic change. do but we risk a similar scenario this year? >> i don't think so. because what happened last year was that was very much a premture rally. based on the fact we had fall on the 40s in january. they were unsustainable. rerallied onbacks of expectations that things were going to fall. there is a big time lag takes about a year and a half, even two years. that is why this year you are seeing the supplies actually come off. so i do think there is a much more fundamental basis for rally. having said that it needs to be a slow move higher. any sharp increase in prices can ultimately derail the rebalancing process. >> you point out this drastic you turn in balances taking place by saudi arabia. what is going on there? >> simply a lot of the market analysts have been consistently saying that saudi arabia is going to increase production imminently to 11 million barrels a day or increase capacity to 1w5. we just don't think there is any reality to that. reco