a little bit later on, we are going to hear from christine lagarde, jay powell, and andrew bailey. are those three going to continue to drive risk assets higher? at the moment, they look like they are the only ones in tow n that are going to have an effect on policy. monetary policy is still there. if i look at equity markets, are they just going to go higher driven by more and more money supply? supriya: clearly there has been -- clearly that has been a big driver. monetary policy was the first mover, and central-bank action stopped the negative downward spiral. but at the same time, you also have cyclical quality stepping in. -- you have fiscal policy stepping in. this year, the amount of fiscal policy as a percentage of gdp was roughly double what you got in the great financial crisis. so there has been burden sharing. the question is can they continue to be, and with hopes for more from the u.s. as we get a divided government, there is fiscal policy expansion in europe. fiscal policy in the euro area is again, double than what we got last them around, so there is burden sharing

we speak to governor andrew bailey here on cnbc. >>> so the u.s.ion remains tight with democratic candidate joe biden leading president trump 253 to 214 in the electoral college vote 270 votes are needed to secure a win. alice barr has more. >> reporter: tonight democrat joe biden pulling within striking distance of an electoral win as a handful of battleground states continue to count millions of votes. >> i'm not here to declare that we've won with, but i am here to report when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winner >> reporter: for president trump, there are still paths to a second term, but some may lead through a courtroom. his campaign launching a barrage of legal challenges, demanding a recount in wisconsin where biden is the apparent winner if current results hold and trying to halt vote counting in michigan, virginia -- >> they are trying to make a mockery of the election. >> reporter: while president trump used partial results to try to claim victory overnight, today his public presence was limited to a handful of tweets

jerome powell, christine lagarde, and andrew bailey used a virtual conference to highlight the risks.l says the post pandemic economy will be different in fundamental ways. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: we are getting a lot of messages that i admitted i have not seen "star wars." coming up, we will continue with the covid latest wave with infections far surpassing last spring, but there are glimmers of hope. we will look at the european figures next. this is bloomberg. ♪ annmarie: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." europe has been at the epicenter of the autumn surge after many european countries and acted new restrictions including nonessential shops being closed. progress is mixed. what do the latest figures deal with? dani: we are seeing grim headlines in italy, u.k., france and spain. we saw more than one million cases, that grim milestone was reached this week. some nations are showing a slowing down or plateauing of growth

christine lagarde and andrew bailey warning of a tough road ahead. with the virus spreading, we are not going back to the same economy. we are going back to a different economy. >> before we had this great news about vaccines, we had some pretty negative news concerning the second wave that really came about earlier than anything we had anticipated. that also has an impact on the outlook. the spur.ay be second, we must now push ahead hard with the necessary changes to support changing the direction of our climate. annmarie: central bankers, warning the alarm around the world. joining us, the global head of fx strategy at youpb. i want to get your thoughts initially on what we heard from ,he globe's central bankers sounding alarm for the market not to get ahead of itself. peter: yeah, i fully agree. i think they are basically giving a reality check to markets and despite the good news we've had in the past week regarding the vaccine, it is clear any rollout of the vaccine is going to take time. you are looking at a situation where the most at risk gro

approach with caution -- jay powell is joined by christine lagarde and andrew bailey in warning economic challenges despite the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine. u.s. cases weigh on stocks, stocks look set to continue the slide in europe while treasury yields fall amid growing concerns around the pandemic. california joins texas reaching one million infections. picking a statement, president trump bands investments and firms controlled by china's military as u.s. election officials say the vote was the most secure in american history. welcome to the program, happy friday morning. under one hour until the start of the cash equity trading session in europe. we have a mixed picture in futures. european futures looked negative. yesterday u.s. and european stocks dropped around concern to the extent we may see new lockdown measures in the united states. we have a futures picture where europe is weaker, wanting to play catch-up with latter-day losses in the united states. u.s. futures .2 the upside. -- u.s. futures point two the upside. nasdaq futures are treated like havens during the corona

guy johnson in conversation with andrew bailey and the first day of a second national lockdown in the u.k. the only difference this time around, schools and colleges remain open but everything else is a, shut, shut. tom: greece looks to a three week locked out as well. this is extraordinary from the financial times, it appears a six-month delay on this troubled transaction. the generations of financial and everybody was going to make billions and millions of dollars and then shanghai and hong kong and for that matter, beijing have said, wait. right now a stunning six-month delay. no question that would be our lead story if we were not distracted by pandemic and election. speaking of the election, it is important to remember there are two individuals involved stop let's listen to mr. biden and mr. trump. mr. biden: after a long night of counting, it is clear that we are winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. i am not here to declare that we reportt i am here to when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners. tos. trump: we will b

guy: bank of england governor andrew bailey speaking to me a little earlier. we got rishi sunak, the chancellor, splashing the cash. you do have to wonder whether one is related to the other. the low rates allowing the government to borrow more. alix: if there is one mmt experiment, many say it is the u.k.. let's break it all down with kit juckes. he joins us from socgen. ,hat were your thoughts particularly in terms of the growth forecast the boe perceives in 2021, 2022? kit: i think it is inevitable that the growth forecast gets worse and the recovery gets pushed further out. the virus can't have no impact. there are huge uncertainties about what goes forward. already, the u.k. probably has the most downward revisions to growth forecasts through the course of this year for the average of 2020, 2021 of all of the major economies, and that is not going to change with this latest lockdown, nor would it change if we were to get a no deal exit from the european union. that would be another source of downside. it is pretty miserable. the bank of england is not ver

andrew bailey, governor of the bank of england, speaking to me a little bit earlier.one, european commissioner for the economy, also joining me -- paolo gentiloni, european commissioner for the economy, also joining me in the next hour. numbers likely to be even more to medically to the downside. we will speak to and hear from these gentlemen in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. then it's the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. planks are the ultimate total body exercise. build your upper body with pushups. work your lower body with the aerosquat. the ae

so he has to settle the bank of england governor andrew bailey has warned that the failure to security e.u. u.k. trade deal could do more damage to the british economy over the long term. then the coronavirus pandemic, which is wreaking havoc currently. what do you make of that assertion? and what could this do to the economy if there is no deal? no doubt the governor is correct. the covert crisis is a short term suppression of demand. but the brics, it would rip with a no deal would represent very long term disruption to trade flows. that would, doubtless have a very severe impact on the u.k. economy. and on g.d.p., britain being a trading nation. this is borne out by a study that the london school of economics finalized in which essentially put the magnitude of the no deal breaker at approximately 3 times the impact on g.d.p. that the covert crisis will have no hilary. we know that the bracks it's been going on since 2016, but clearly the pandemic has made it harder to hold substantial negotiations. why is the e.u. so against the delay in this transition period? and is the u.k. even

its governor, andrew bailey, also warned that brexit would harm economic growth in the first six monthsade deal with the european union. he said many firms hit by covid aren't prepared for new border checks. 0ur economics correspondent andy verity reports. sainsbury announces it's shedding 3,500 jobs and closing 420 stand—alone argos stores, after revealing a £137 million loss. and that's just day one of the new lockdown. for an economy that was recovering since the spring, trouble is once again brewing. this walthamstow beer maker doubled capacity before covid. the pre—christmas period should have been a chance to restore its fortunes. i'm really super proud of the way all of our staff, especially our younger members of staff, have really handled it. they have been adaptable, they have been willing to kind of get stuck in at every turn, but things are hard, things are really, really hard, and especially hospitality staff, like, these people don't get paid the most in the world. they are by nature quite vulnerable staff. so we're doing our best. today, the bank of england warned that as

also expecting tomorrow for the office of budget responsibilities no—deal brexit forecast, and andrew baileych a trade deal with the eu could be even worse for the economy than covid—i9. but behind the scenes, there's optimism — i'm hearing that there's optimism — i'm hearing that there's optimism — i'm hearing that there's optimism that ed agreement might emerge from talks of the weekend and be nailed down early next week. so i'm pretty hopeful.” thought we were going to be hearing something today or thursday. anyway, let's wait and see. we are always on the brink of something, art we? 0nto the times, and again another eu story, britain and a sausage work. it is like something from guest minister or yes prime minister, isn't it? it's surreal, and there always seems to be one food or another... but sausages are meant to be bendy, of course, as are bananas. exactly. so in this instance, the big row is in eu regulation stating that uncooked prepared meat products cannot be imported unless they are froze n cannot be imported unless they are frozen to —18 celsius, which threatens tens of million

on the issue of brexit, we heard recently from andrew bailey, the bank of england governor, who said would have a more damaging or a longer lasting effect than covid. what do you think? let me ta ke covid. what do you think? let me take the second part first. within the obr numbers, i am leafing through the numbers, they have not printed any books, we have to do it on our tablets, the growth figure in this, the final quarter, which has not finished yet, is —2.7%. that is a dip. for it to be a recession it has to be another dip, but it is expected to go up. lockdown sceptics in parliament will say, there we go, we we re in parliament will say, there we go, we were growing back and the obr is saying we are going down again. in terms of going forward, and impact and no deal would be a further hit the economy. it is also worth noting the economy. it is also worth noting the the prime minister is going for and within their grasp is quite thin in terms of the connections with europe. it will raise trade barriers that currently do not exist in certain industries. what is interesting is the

powell, ecb president christine lagarde, and andrew bailey used a virtual conference to highlight the risk. the post pandemic economy will be different in many ways. the 2020 election was the most secure in american history. they say there are is no evidence that the election was compromised in any way. it comes as president trump and his allies continue to make unfounded allies of fraud. poland is joining hungry and threatening to veto the eu's recovery fund. the eu needs unanimous approval to borrow for the stimulus package. if they managed to block the budget, poland would leave about 33 billion euros, hungry about 6 billion. boris johnson's prime minister -- prime minister boris johnson stop a dominic cummings is leaving at the start of the year. he is the second advisor to leave. cummings has long been a britishrsial figure in politics. he was the mastermind behind the brexit referendum. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: laura, thank

coming up in the next hour or so, in interview by guy johnson with andrew bailey as exec like am in new 11:00 a.m. in london. this is "bloomberg." ♪ this is "bloomberg surveillance." election special 2020. let's get back to david folkerts-landau deutsche bank. we talked about negative rates and we talked a little about the composition of the u.s. economy. when you look at europe, is the ecb the real game changer or is it really the recovery fund? when are we going to see the disbursement of this money make meaningful impact on the countries that need it the most? asid: the ecb is crucial lender of last resort, liquidity , held europe together in earlier crisis and will do so again. superbovery fund is a supplement. in fact, the recovery fund really is -- it amounts to socialization of sovereign debt. it can be used for that. that kind of removes the risk from the table. the ability also of the eu commission to fund the recovery is a bigugh its own -- step forward in getting a unified european debt market with all of european members being guarantors of that. it is a huge step forward to

yesterday with ecb president lagarde, fed chair jay powell, and the governor for the bank of england andrew bailey were asked what they think are the biggest risks right now. president lagarde brought up the mutation in denmark. can you walk through what you have learned from that in the last week or so, and how concerned we should be, or shouldn't, for that matter? virus can our rna mutate. so far, we have not seen any evidence of those mutations that are affecting transmissibility or severity of illness, or the ability for vaccines to cross protect. this is a fast-moving train. this could change. , buts could look different the mentation -- but the mutation this virus undergoes thoughts. top in the u.s., we haven't really had a national control program, so there is complete reliance on biotechnology solutions. let's get the u.s. population vaccinated. we have virologists looking constantly at the evolution of the virus. vaccines wille still be effective. one thing we are trying to work universalg a coronavirus vaccine, just like there is work towards a universal flu vaccine. are going to see cov

we have been listening to a european central bank online andrew bailey, jay powell, and christine lagarde. a wide-ranging discussion on a number of topics. we think they could all agree on, while the recovery is coming, it is uneven. madame lagarde focusing on the young and women and how they are being left behind. at the same time, a consensus that this was a first real test of the financial systems after the financial crisis, and thus far it has gone well. to they all said, i want emphasize, so far it's gone well, and there may be for regulation required. in the meantime, they had to talk about the need for coordination among them. it is not lost on anyone that the three of them came together to convey a sense of coordination among the central banks but also coordination with fiscal and monetary policy, something chairman powell was asked about. we talked about another central banker today, former governor of the federal reserve, and we spoke to him about what a president biden would be doing, specifically about what some of those things that jay powell mentioned. >> as we have been say

world's most the powerful central bankers, jay powell, andrew bailey come in christine lagarde speakingpact of vaccine will have. let's look at the long-term impacts of the pandemic with david miliband, former u.k. foreign secretary and current ceo of the international rescue committee. helps those in humanitarian crises. let's talk about the vaccine. how worried are you we will not see an equitable distribution of the vaccine when it becomes available? david: good to be with you. i am not worried. i'm afraid one has to expect there will not be an equitable distribution of the vaccine. it is right that essential workers are at the frontline. it is right the front of the line, it is right the elderly and those who are sensible to disease or at the frontline, but the great danger is the large parts of the world are left out. the reason for this concern is based on very recent history. thenow the example of massive economic stimulus being given in the richest countries of the world, but we also know the global macro economic response in developing countries indeed. very weak we know 64 dev

anna: andrew bailey, governor of the bank of england, speaking to as this week about the scale of actiong. if you do see the dollar downtrend, does that mean the pound has some support from that? there's plenty of other news around the pound, that exit trade negotiations approaching. we've heard big news in parliament from the chancellor extending this game to march. -- the scheme to march. peter: i would much rather -- [indiscernible] the pound is still going to struggle. i think that when we look at the u.k. economy in the first quarter of next year, it's going to be a lagger compared to the euro and u.s. economy. the reason i think it's going to be a laggard's we are going to be struggling to be -- to rebalance the economy. for the economy to rebalance and adjust to the new trading environment with the e.u. and other partners, really what's necessary is the weaker pound for that adjustment to really accelerate. i think the underperformance from the u.k. economy versus its major peers is going to be really quite pronounced in the first half of next year. and then it's only after a peri

we have been watching headlines with andrew bailey saying they are in line with the bank saw at the economyhe end of last year was huge. we got gdp data earlier on. he is also saying he does not see a great need for yield curve control. is that something the market had been thinking about, where they pricing out negative interest rates thinking yield curve control might be employed? withr: in the u.k. market the bank of england, we see how --h they were purchasing [indiscernible] it was very much the case of negative interest rates. if we see that increase come through, it is a question of negative interest rates are on the ticket. [indiscernible] that is also an option. we think the market has dramatically priced that out. anna: there is no precise date in mind for negative rates, if indeed they go in that direction. in terms of data on the u.k. calendar, we think about brexit, no formal deadline, this weekend it looks as if our reporting suggests that that might be cast aside. do any dates matter? what will you be looking for? these things need approval in various parliaments. eimear: [in

was jerome powell, christine lagarde, and andrew bailey morning of a tossed path ahead, and escalatingerries cases continue to be front and center for investors. joining us now is the ubs pan-european economist. let's pick up on the european ecb's view of the world. we are just hearing from christine lagarde, and what is your expectation now for the eurozone and for the level of gdp contraction that we see? will it be half the size of the spring as a sort of rough rule of thumb or what are using to guide you through this probably -- this period? >> after strong bonds, the focus is now on how bad the fourth quarter is likely to be. now, we think that compared to the spring lockdown and gdp contraction, is likely to be smaller. specifically, we expect a 3% decline quarter on quarter, so close to 12% in the second quarter. factorsmention two which are key in terms of why the contraction this time around should be smaller. first, in terms of mobility restrictions, we are now essentially back to may levels, so less severe than the lockdown in april. this is largely due to the fact that the

andrew bailey will speak at a conference, you can follow that speech at 11:15 a.m.are forecast to increase for a sixth straight month, but it a slower pace. later, the ceos of facebook and twitter have volunteered to testify involving their decision -- something to watch in the tech sector. the covid-19 crisis has forced easyjet to report its first annual ever loss. -- 835 million pounds. developments have lifted its stock in the past two weeks. joining me now is johan lundgren , ceo, easyjet. thank you for joining us. in a europe that is partially locked down and full of restrictions, i wonder what is your most current experience this november of flying around europe? paint a picture how tough things are. johan: first of all, it is fair to say little flying is going on across europe. not to fly more than 20% for the quarter. it is fair to say it is an underlying demand for strong travel. we saw that when the canaries moved to the quarantine list, bookings moved up 900%. for everyday travelers restrictions are in place, the pent up demand has increased. ,ews of a va

the governor of the bank of england andrew bailey there.ped. let's get some detail on the results, and they are extremely close. these are the latest electoral college figures. joe biden on 243 votes, and donald trump on 214. a candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to secure the presidency. joe biden claimed michigan overnight, but no result has yet emerged in pennsylvania — a big prize with its 20 electoral votes. we're expecting an announcement from wisconsin shortly, but most us media outlets expect it to go the the democrats. this is the popular vote so far — joe biden at 50% with donald trump at 47%. mr biden has racked up more than 71.5 million votes, the highest number won by any presidential candidate ever. mr trump has also pulled in more votes than he gained in 2016, with preliminary figures showing the highest turnout since 1900. the democrats' hopes of making big gains in the us congressional elections have so far failed to materialise. they're expected to remain in control of the house of representatives, but with a reduc