andrew bailey - down further. so there is work to do. andrew bailey and - down further.o. andrew bailey and the i to do. andrew bailey and the team a meeting tomorrow and there is a lot of conversation about what they might do with the cost of rowing. there is a lot of economic data out of the latest growth numbers, yesterday we had rages numbers —— wages numbers, unemployment, today the inflation numbers was not what you think they will decide to do tomorrow. we think the will decide to do tomorrow. we think they will raise _ decide to do tomorrow. we think they will raise three _ decide to do tomorrow. we think they will raise three quarters - they will raise three quarters of a percent. many are looking for that and i think there is a risk they do less than that but they switch to going a little bit less strongly, so maybe 0.5%. that will be where the debate will be. tween 0.5% or 0.75%. they cannot keep raising interest rates at this pace, they won't need to. they will need to raise rates a few times and at some point possibly quite early on in 2023 they will have to

how does andrew bailey's task different when it comes to that?t is the fine needle that he needs to thread? given how extremely challenging this labor market is. >> one of the contrast on the market versus the u.k., i think the key difference is that we saw the pickup in wage growth in the u.k. coming through much earlier than we did in europe. the part of the story is the fact that participation rates were essentially available in the u.k., and it has shrunk more than in the euro zone. it still hasn't recovered to pre-covid levels. the tightness in the labor market in the u.k. seems to be more acute. this is exactly what comes through in the communication of the bank of england, where they are raising concerns about labor market tightness, wage growth, and what it means for persistence and inflationd. adani: andrew bailey and the rest of the crew seem more hesitant to hike as much. there is wage price spiral fears. there are more structural drivers beyond just energy adding to inflation in the u.k., yet, andrew bailey seems to be more hesitant t

those were the words of a cautiously optimistic andrew bailey, governor of the bank of england, on thursday suggested the worst might be over for inflation here in the uk. the comments came as the bank raised the cost of borrowing by half a percentage point to 3.5%, the highest it's been in m years. higher rates are meant to make borrowing and spending less attractive, and hopefully take the wind out of soaring prices, which have been rising at their fastest rate in four decades. but they are also piling the pressure on some mortgage holders already struggling with the cost—of—living crisis. as our economics editor faisal islam reports. it is absolutely mega stressful because i'm trying to work but inflation is going up. what can i do? ido? in west i do? in west yorkshire, clive turner is one of the 4 million owner occupiers facing significant rises in mortgage costs after bank of england rate rises and thatis bank of england rate rises and that is on top of the hike in energy bills. it is about £120 difference because of the 5.76. it is a lot more money out of our disposable income. plus,

andrew bailey and co. signaling that inflation may have peaked in the u.k.aising rates by 50 basis points, a three split in terms of how they made that decision. let's look at the sectors and in terms of the selling pressure that we are seeing, most pronounced in telecoms but also real estate. just to sectors in the green. autos up to tenths of a percent. banks up 10th of a percent. the action is in the bond markets. that is the most excitement in terms of the action today particularly in btp's. you look at 340 is a level maybe viewed by some as -- it is currently 314 after 30 basis point move on the 10-year yesterday. german bonds containing to selloff. that takes us into what is happening in brussels. this time it's around the geopolitics. european leaders meeting in brussels have agreed to a new package of sanctions on russia. they also urge european energy ministers to complete a deal on a price cap on natural gas as soon as monday. for more let's go to our respondent who is in brussels for us. maria, what was agreed last night? how consequential was it?

subsequent report it to andrew bailey . he subsequent report it to andrew bailey.t report it to andrew bailey . he was head of the fca bailey. he was head of the fca bank of the fca , but essentially bank of the fca, but essentially proved that they were the markets we gave them 88 examples of where the price would fixed the next day. we did that through lawyers so that we would timestamp the before and say, here's the email, share it with the cftc , share it with jj, the cftc, share it with jj, here's where the price. if you believe there's been a wilful attempt, it was to keep the price of gold low. it was a wilful attempt to not just keep the price of gold low, but as an a game to make money. yeah, well corruption can exist in many, many forms . but looking at where many forms. but looking at where we are today , you make the point we are today, you make the point that, you know, being safe with your money and having it in the bank and i get the yeah you're 10. yeah. or maybe a little bit more this current moment time this program not here to give investment adv

. >> it is a question surrounding the governor andrew bailey at the moment because this cost-of-living crisis is proving so persistent. the survey by the bank itself which found almost as many people want to see a rate hike to boost their pandemic savings as want to see a rate cut to reduce their debt servicing costs. the monetary transmission mechanism is fundamentally different to when the bank was made independent. and lots more people than historically have got fixed-rate mortgages now, so they are less affected by incremental moves. but for all those people who locked in fixed-rate deals at rock-bottom rates during the pandemic, if they were on a two-year and are waking up to a 14-year high interest rate today, they are in for a nasty surprise. francine: how does this impact not only struggling -- not only sterling but the guilt sales? >> on the pound if we have a 50 basis point height, it is pretty much priced in so it won't have too much of an effect. what sterling will be more affected by is the outlook into next year. i've been speaking to economists who say it is all about br

subsequent report it to andrew bailey . he subsequent report it to andrew bailey.t report it to andrew bailey . he was head of the fca bailey. he was head of the fca bank of the fca , but essentially bank of the fca, but essentially proved that they were the markets we gave them 88 examples of where the price would fixed the next day. we did that through lawyers so that we would timestamp the before and say, here's the email, share it with the cftc , share it with jj, the cftc, share it with jj, here's where the price. if you believe there's been a wilful attempt, it was to keep the price of gold low. it was a wilful attempt to not just keep the price of gold low, but as an a game to make money. yeah, well corruption can exist in many, many forms . but looking at where many forms. but looking at where we are today , you make the point we are today, you make the point that, you know, being safe with your money and having it in the bank and i get the yeah you're 10. yeah. or maybe a little bit more this current moment time this program not here to give investment adv

. >> andrew bailey is speaking in an interview with bbc saying good news in u.k. inflation figures.uy: exactly. that's the point. that's the amazing thing. yes it's good news but you have to want to see it. alix: so it raises the question for me what's changed and i wonder, may be the tpi tool that the ecb has is better than thought. they can handle the spread widening. maybe they can handle the energy crisis in the winter. is there anything to that in terms of why they went so hawkish today. >> i think it's not very complicated. i think inflation fears are not good. the economy has been more resilient on this with some market analysts were thinking, myself also, the unemployment rate is quite low there some wage pressure. i think we should look at the simple analysis that inflation is too strong for the ecb to act. my concern is that the guidance on rate as been quite strong. and the intention you see it's not the intention to further dampen demand in a situation with the project with already to negative figures. this i think is a bridge too far. guy: peter, have inflation expectat

we have had an exchange of letters between the governor, andrew bailey, and the chancellor of the exchequert inflation may well have peaked with that number yesterday, showing it coming down from a high of over 11%, tojust over 10.7%. still very coming down from a high of over 11%, to just over 10.7%. still very high by the standards of the uk, by the target given to this institution of 2%, but coming down nonetheless. and oh expected to go well below target. our economics editor. i know it is time for bbc news across the uk. thousands of nurses are taking part in the biggest strike in history of the nhs. bbc midlands today has spent the morning talking to some of the nurses who have decided to strike. it has taken 106 nine years, but rcn nurses have decided it is time. hospitals across birmingham are taking part. a decade of austerity and a covid crisis, they believe they are underpaid. more importantly, the current terms and conditions, a stopping people from becoming nurses. yet about the amount of stress all staff are under, for a pittance, and staff members working full—time and overti

the bank of england, led by andrew bailey, where they also hiked their key rate. their inflation has fallen a bit, but when you get down to 10.7, you need a lot more. even though they acknowledged they are probably already in a recession, they still see the inflation risk tilted to the upside. they are still ready to do more. i think it's less of a sure case with the bank of england, because their economy is where it is. it's the same kind of message. inflation that high, you certainly want to make sure that it hasn't just stopped rising, but that it's starting to come down. that's a challenge for so many of these central banks. once you let inflation get out of the bag, it's very difficult to bring it down. if we see things slowing down or slowing down too much, we could start cutting rates like crazy. but if inflation doesn't start coming down, all you can do is hike rates and that's not a medicine they want to keep administering to their economies. david: kathleen hays, are global economics and policy editor in new york -- our global economics and policy editor

at the beginning of the year we had andrew bailey, the head of the central bank here, saying exercisee don't want to add to inflation, but wejust want to add to inflation, but we just haven't seen this wage price spiral at all in this country. why do you think that is? why is it so different to what is happening in the states? ~ �* , ., what is happening in the states? �*, ., ., , states? well, it's not really, victoria- _ states? well, it's not really, victoria- i — states? well, it's not really, victoria. i mean, _ states? well, it's not really, victoria. i mean, one - states? well, it's not really, victoria. i mean, one of- states? well, it's not really, victoria. i mean, one of the| victoria. i mean, one of the things your previous guest said was that wage inflation in the states was essentially higher and it isn't, it will probably come in at the lowest level in over 12 months later today at 4.6%. when you have an inflation rate of 7% to 8% that doesn't speak to me as a wage price spiral. your point is still valid. we have industrial unrest over the course of the next three or fo

on the ftx fallout, but first as we had to break, listen to what the bank of england governor andrew baileyhinks of crypto. >> it doesn't have intrinsic value. the people who wish to invest in it must be prepared to lose their money. when you invest people buy things because their extrinsic value, but we have to be clear what is. ♪ >> this is all about what we need to do right now. and we need to stop the money laundering. we need to stop the cheating that's going on in crypto. that means just getting a set of rules in place, same kind of transaction, same risk, means we have to have the same rules. it also means we've got to have a cop on the beat who is well enough finance to be out there and enforce the rules making sure these guys are not the law. tom: democratic senator elizabeth warren speaking before the latest hearings on the ftx collapse, saying there needs to be a, on the beat in this space. more details from the indictment of sam bankman-fried and the ongoing investigations a former co-ceo ticked off authorities in the bahamas about possible misuse of funds. more details on alleg

a lot will rest on what andrew bailey thinks, or how much they should raise by. this is the picture for sectors. have 19 sectors that make up the s&p 600. all on the downside apart from energy, gaining .1%. the biggest losers. if you look at the ones falling the most, basic resources down .7%, technology and consumer down .8%. let's get to our mliv managing editor, mark cudmore. you are looking at the s&p 500, good morning. mark: the two month relief rally in u.s. stocks is over. that made talking through the argument. i am not a big manafort technicals -- this one does. the price action yesterday was terrible. u.s. cpi print was unambiguously good news. it was softer than expected across the board. we got a rally in e-mini fu tures, broke the beautiful four touch line. we have still got to cpi and recession coming next year, and that is not properly priced in stocks. so we have what is called a gravestone which is pretty bearish at the top of the two month trend, and a failure to break that trend line. if you look at the s&p 500, it is the same. we opened about

bank of england governor andrew bailey said th warranted the strong route. >> we have seen the first glimmer of the figures released this week when it is not only coming down, but below where we thought it would be which is good news. it is a long way to go we expect that to happen, by the way. we expect inflation to start falling from spring onwards. there is a risk it won't happen that way because the labor market in the country is so tight. that is why we have to raise interest rates we see the risk as pronounced. >> now the ecb hiked the key rates by 50 points as president legarde warned the central bank has longer to go than some of the international peers. the cousin ncil increased the forecast for the next two years and outlined to reduce the balance sheet and would start selling down from the asset purchase program next year at a rate of 15 billion euro per month. responding to a question from annette, lagarde did say they would clamp down on inflation. >> significant rise at the steady pace means that we should expect to raise interest rates at 50 basis points pace for a per

now the split of the vote will be closely watched in the absence of the press conference by andrew bailey, last month, two members called for smaller hikes and this time the vote is expected to be split three or even four ways. >>> the european central bank is expected to follow the path and lift interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting today. investors will watch out for clues on how the central bank intends to shrink its balance sheet. so-called qt let's get to annette who has been shivering out at the bank for us annette, pick up the story on qt >> reporter: yes, exactly. that is crucial for the market especially the bond market as to how the pace of unwinding the balance sheet or asset purchase program will be crucial for the bond markets of course, many analysts expect q. it is starting as soon as the second quarter quantitative tightening, qt. the ecb wants to get through the winter recessionary period first. that is expected given the energy crisis which will be tough for eurozone economies we are still seeing inflation being much higher than, of course, the target the rece

will andrew bailey, the governor will decide that we don't need any more interest rates .re interest rates. that's one reason why the pound is nudging down. as you said at the beginning, they think it's not going help because if you don't have more interest rates, international investors want to put their money in pound put their money in the pound because get as big because they won't get as big a return. it's complicated for return. it's complicated but for an of people, it's an awful lot of people, it's very, simple. their very, very simple. their mortgage just up. and mortgage rates just went up. and if coming to the end of if they're coming to the end of a rate deal, they will not a fixed rate deal, they will not buy lot. but in all cases, buy. not as much as we thought might have had bank. england have done had the bank. england raised more so raised interest rates by more so more not as painful as more pain, but not as painful as it have been. okay, liam, thank you and more analysis, of course, we get that course, as we get that indication for the bank of england th

the risks according to andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england, still remain to the upsideey did another 50 basis point rate hike to three and half percent. 3.5%. we move on to the european central bank, again, a 50 basis point rate hike, downshifting from 75. christine, i love when she said, don't mistake this from a pivot. they are up to 2% now. they are expecting to get that up. they will start of the quantitative tightening, running down the balance sheets in february. steen also says there is more rates to come. they also have a very high inflation rate and they need to bring it down. this is the way they see doing it. it was interesting talking to dani, a former member of the bank of england's policy board. he thinks people have it all wrong, they don't know that we are responding to temporary shocks with the supply and labor markets, those will cause inflation to come down rapidly. there are a lot of people who think that, and the markets are wondering about this. the prevailing view seems to be, you got to hit it, hit it hard, if you overdo it, you can always turn a

andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england, gave some context to the decision.ously very good news, but there's a long way to go. and we expect that to happen, by the way. we expect inflation to start falling more rapidly, probably from the late spring onwards. but there is a risk that it won't happen in that way, particularly because the labour market and the labour supply in this country are so tight and that's why, really, we had to raise interest rates today because we see that risk as really quite pronounced. what i would say is that, if you look at the history of the bank of england's monetary policy committee, 0.5% rise is still a very big one. i mean, we only did the first 0.5% rise earlier this year, so i would put it into that context. we will have to judge, as we will do in a few weeks' time when we have the next meeting, what's appropriate next time. so i'm not going to speculate on where they may end up or what we might do next time at this stage because there will be a lot of information that we'll get before we get to that point. scotland's deputy

one, kathryn mann wanted to go 75 basis point seven of the nine wanted to increase rates andrew baileygland saying inflation has peaked a slight upgrade in gdp. but they are saying that the uk will be in recession, quote, for a prolonged period of time and that future increases may be required they do see inflation falling sharply in mid-2023, maybe even falling below target by 2024 at this rate. one other thing, the swiss national bank raising by half a percentage point i just want to get back to the idea in the last half hour about the markets fighting the fed or the fed fighting the markets whichever way you want to put it here's a chart that i think shows the situation pretty clearly. this is the goldman sachs financial conditions index versus the fed funs rate if you go back -- there's that chart there -- that's not a chart, but the essence of it, the fund rates two percentage points since september of 2021 series there's the chart on the right-hand side, thank you very much up two if you go to the center portion there. goldman sachs index is down in september. 0.3. and more recen

andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england, gave some context to the figures. brute bank of englandbecause we have seen that really quite pronounced. what i would says i think in terms of looking at the history of the bank of england and half a percent rise is quite a big one. we only did the first half a percent rise earlier this year. and we will have to judge as we will do in a few weeks' time when we have the next meeting, what is appropriate next time. i am not going to speculate on where they may end up all what we might do next time. they will be a lot of information that we will get before we get to that point. i'm joined now by our business correspondent, marc ashdown... the bank of england policy committee meet every month and there are nine members and they all have different views on the way forward for growing the economy and bringing inflation under control. the target is 2% and it is currently 10.7%. they each get a vote on the base rate had been a 3%, put up to 3% last month, quite an aggressive rise, 0.75 but today we got this ninth rate rise to 3.5%. interesting, t

we have also had an exchange of letters between the governor here andrew bailey and the chancellor ofgovernment put in? yes, it is very good question and _ the government put in? yes, it is very good question and it - the government put in? yes, it is very good question and it was - very good question and it was precisely the terms of the debate that was hard in this building about whether the interest rate rise should be zero or half a percent or three quarters of a percent. because when you have raised interest rates on nine consecutive occasions which is what happened over the pastjust over a take some time for that to filter across the entire economy. through households, businesses, and it is sort of doing the job of slowing the economy and bringing down inflation already. in thejobs market, evidence of a turn, unemployment is very low, butjust starting to turn up. there are fewer vacancies. so there is this argument going on about whether there is enough breaks on the economy already in the system or whether much more needs to be done and that was the debate that was had and it c

understand and accept is that even though we've had that news from the bank of england this week where andrew baileye. consumers are really aware how tough spain and how aware of how tough spain and how tough continue to be. so tough will continue to be. so with people like me going onto your show and saying look, don't spend if you don't need it's only a bargain if. spend if you don't need it's only a bargain if . you've got only a bargain if. you've got the cash in the bank to afford a i think hopefully people are listening that message and it's better that people spend and spend comfortably than spend and get that's going to get into debt that's going to really impact them for really hurt or impact them for months years to come. okay it months or years to come. okay it is always good to see. thank you very much indeed . don't go very much indeed. don't go anywhere. we've got all the papers heading your way in just a few minutes. some 38. good morning. you're watching and listening to breakfast with stephen and anne. so let's have a look through the papers now. joining us this morning senior repor

bailey and, the writer and broadcaster amy nicholl. now look, i just wanted to show you because did ask me about the andrew thing you said, oh, i've neverbout andrew. can we just have look at this, let's just have a look at this, let's just have a look at this because i've put this together to make the point, oh, there are angry monologues. okay one angry monologue about, andrew, where there's no people . amy the point of this is make out to you that. i have actually spent ten years writing about the poison , and if it wasn't for the poison, and if it wasn't for the poison, and if it wasn't for the british press, not just me, lots of the newspapers i've worked for their absolute on exposing prince andrew . no one, exposing prince andrew. no one, by the way, would have even known about his relationship with jeffrey . they wouldn't have with jeffrey. they wouldn't have even none. i absolutely commend you on that and what i just wish you on that and what i just wish you would give it the same weight as you . well, i have over weight as you. well, i have over the course of ten years, have said been an orgy of said there's been an orgy of vi

bailey and, the writer and broadcaster amy nicholl. now look, i just wanted to show you because did ask me about the andrew thing you said, oh, i've neverbout andrew. can we just have look at this, let's just have a look at this, let's just have a look at this because i've put this together to make the point, oh, there are angry monologues. okay one angry monologue about, andrew, where there's no people . amy the point of this is make out to you that. i have actually spent ten years writing about the poison , and if it wasn't for the poison, and if it wasn't for the poison, and if it wasn't for the british press, not just me, lots of the newspapers i've worked for their absolute on exposing prince andrew . no one, exposing prince andrew. no one, by the way, would have even known about his relationship with jeffrey . they wouldn't have with jeffrey. they wouldn't have even none. i absolutely commend you on that and what i just wish you on that and what i just wish you would give it the same weight as you . well, i have over weight as you. well, i have over the course of ten years, have said been an orgy of said there's been an orgy of vi

bailey's. i have mary poppins, the original one, not the new ones. the new one's got me plenty. the original. the 1964 version. the old school one. we've got julie andrews gets you in that mood . poppins gets you in that mood. it's obviously about a family. that one for me is definitely today's pick for the afternoon for that snooze time in the afternoon where you can dip in deep. how and then this evening, my big was quite lot on i my big pick was quite lot on i think of all of the things the one i definitely would go for is the big fat quiz of the year 2022. it's on at 9:00 tonight on channel 4, hosted by jamie cole. but they've got the best comedian on the line with it. i mean, they really got some big cases on this and they're going to look back over the year in an ultimate pub quiz style . and i ultimate pub quiz style. and i just will be just just think that will be just such kind of see such a fun watch to kind of see things happened the things have happened the year put spin on them and be put a funny spin on them and be like, thank god that's let's get into year and do in a into the next year and do in a fun way. so yeah because it's that time