andrew tabler, i'll begin with you. what are we to make of the fact that it seems the next prime minister of lebanon is going to be hezbollah's hand- picked candidate? >> definitely in the short term it is a setback for the obama administration policies. they a tremendous amount invested in former prime minister hariri. but in a number of ways this is a crisis that has been long in coming. the reason why this all broke down is because of the special tribunal for lebanon. and a lot of the incoming government's decisions are going to be measured against lebanon's participation with the tribunal going forward. >> warner: what do you think is the significance of this? >> the united states has to get used to this. we've seen in new reports today troubles in tunisia and egypt. now we have lebanon. what's the irony is lebanon may turn out to be the most stable of any of these governments because it's a confessional democracy. >> warner: explain confessional democracy briefly. >> the muslims and sunni muslims and shia muslims h