alix: it's 30 minutes of andy hall. opec cuts volatile prices, more hedge fund closures, higher capex budgets. we sit down with legendary oil investor andy hall. why it is so hard to be a trader now, and how to fix it. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg commodities edge." it is 30 minutes focused on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. our topic today is crude. it has gotten a lot harder for traditional market participants to trade oil. just ask one of my guests, andy hall. he has worked at many companies before running his own hedge fund. he closed that flagship fund in 2017 after suffering losses. now he collects art and traits oil with his own money. he is also a board member at orbital insight. orbital insight is a solution for traditional traders. kevin o'brien also joins us here on set. thanks. so great to see you. i can't believe andy hall is here in person. [laughter] you have the analysis and you have the trading expertise. let's dive right in. the qu

just ask one of my guests, andy hall.e has worked at many companies before running his own hedge fund. he closed that flagship fund in 2017 after suffering losses now he collects art and traits oil with his own money. he is also a board member at orbital insight. orbital insight is a solution -- traditional traders by kevin o'brien also joins us here on set. thanks. so great to see you. i can't believe andy hall is here in person. you have the analysis and you have the trading expertise. let's dive right in. the question in the market is that 1.2 million barrel a day cut from opec plus, is that going to make a significant difference in the markets and to prices? from the lens of your data, have you figure it out? >> the basic basic problem that we have is when people talk about opec cuts or out of the u.s., what is the aggregate number you're speaking about? what we did is we said, let's map out the total storage across the planet. it is about 24,000, 25,000 tanks in the u.s., china, and opec. when you look at opec, what

concerns oversupply and the health of the global economy persist, but andy hall remains bullish on the price. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg about why he is so optimistic. andy: on the negative side, there are headwinds regarding demand and worries with trade how robust is the emerging market country demand, stronger dollar is generally not constructive for oil demand, commodity demand in general. on the other hand, not only have you had opec cut production, there is a question lower prices will have an impact on production prices in the u.s. -- production in the u.s.. the biggest surprise has been the rapid growth in u.s. oil production. everyone knew it was going to grow, but i don't think many people suspected it to grow by as much as it has. right now, year-over-year growth in crude production in the u.s. is about 2 million barrels a day. in january, the u.s. government was forecasting growth of half a million barrels a day. that is a staggering difference. of course, prices have dropped $30 a barrel, so that will presumably have an impact on production growth in the u.s.. >> we

. ♪ alix: it's 30 minutes of andy hall.c cuts volatile prices, more hedge fund closures, higher capex budgets. we sit down with legendary oil investor andy hall. why it is so hard to be a trader now, and how to fix it. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg commodities edge." it is 30 minutes focused on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. our topic today is crude. it has gotten a lot harder for traditional market participants to trade oil. just ask one of my guests, andy hall. he has worked at many companies

just ask one of my guests, andy hall.

it is andy hall. he is a famed oil investor. ull that didl not pan out. we will talk about why it's so hard to be trader right now. david: it has something to do with computers and now grew them? alix: it is also shale and other factors. 30 minutes of andy hall. david: that will be exciting. now for the bloomberg first take. were joined by lisa abramowicz and michael mckee. ecb, andews is the what mr. draghi has to say. chart showing a the economic conditions he is confronting. mine is pmi's above -- the white above 50.i's this is headline inflation, not 2%, inflation, went up to now coming down to 2%. >> the argument is the economy is slowing down, so why do you want to stop buying net new securities as part of their qe program? you could argue it is not working and they are putting money into a policy that is in providing inflation. ecbmberg news reporting the staff will come out with new lower growth and inflation forecasts today. it does not seem to be a policy with a particular purpose. they will still be buying as many bonds as they buy now. the bon

we sit down with legendary oil investor andy hall.t is so hard to be a traitor now, and how to fix it. now, and be a trader how to fix it. ♪ i'm alix steel. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg commodities edge." it is 30 moments focused -- 30 minutes focused on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. our topic today is crude. it has gotten a lot harder for traditional market participants to trade oil.

we sit down with legendary investor alex hall. -- andy hall. this is bloomberg commodities edge.l edition of bloomberg commodities edge. focus on the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. our topic today is crude. it is gotten harder for

romaine: that was oil investor, andy hall with kevin o'brien and alex on bloomberg commodities edge. take another quick look at some of the headlines we got after hours here. we have earnings out of adobe systems. the stock moved slightly higher today. cosco also coming out earnings. their shares are dropping 3.6% despite having revenue beat and eps beat. starbucks also beat on earnings, but their shares are moving lower in after hours. down about 2.7% -- 2.27%. this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. ♪ there's no place likargh!e ♪ i'm trying... ♪ yippiekiyay. ♪ mom. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. man hasofficials is a been k

yesterday i had the privilege of speaking to andy hall. bearish versus bullish? lish on crude. god innown as the oil the commodity world. andy: that is one element of the supply demand story. opec cut by 1.2 million barrels a day. you have other things going on as well. headwindsative side, regarding demand, worries with the threat of trade wars, how robust is emerging market country demand? stronger dollar is generally not constructive for oil demand commodity demand and general. on the other hand, not only have you had opec cut production, there is no question lower prices will have impact on production growth in u.s. when we look at 2018 -- the rapidt apprised has been growth in u.s. oil production. everyone knew it would grow. i don't think many people expected it to grow by as much as it has. right now, year-over-year growth in crude production in u.s., 2 million barrels a day. in january, the u.s. government, eia was forecasting growth of a half million barrels a day. staggering difference. $25, $30 perropped barrel. that will have an impact on production gr

manus: we've got a man named andy hall.pects demand to rebound after a fall in prices and says traders would be better off betting on crude to rise. he spoke to bloomberg about why he is so optimistic. side, theregative are headwinds regarding demand. worries with the threat of trade wars. how robust is emerging market country demand? a stronger dollar is generally not constructive for oil demand, commodity demand in general. on the other hand, not only have you had opec cut production, there is no question lower prices will have an impact on production growth here in the u.s.. when we look at 2018 as a year of the biggest highs has been the rapid growth in u.s. oil production. everyone knew it was going to grow. i do not think many people expected to grow by as much as it has. growthow, year-over-year is about 2 million barrels a day . back in january the u.s. government was forecasting growth at half a million barrels a day. that is a staggering difference. prices are now dropping 25, $30 a barrel. that will presumably ha

. -- andy hall. 1:00 p.m. eastern. that is coming up on commodities edge. bloomberg. ♪ guy: live from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. guy: let's turn to futures in focus. citing data traders from jen skate that says -- fell by over 800,000 barrels last week. 31.35.ading at 61, 20 5 --g at joins us now from the cme. let's talk about brent. says that the opera -- the opec plus agreement effectively puts a flaw on the price of oil at $60 a barrel brent. do you believe that? >> i think so. there is also some supply disruptions in venezuela and iran as well. perhaps that is the case and we have a decent spread here. brent, eightsix to dollars, that is pretty high considering where prices have come. i think the real question is demand, not so much supply. guy: one thing we should talk about and i'm sure you are talking about it down there is the structure of the volatility market and the futures market. what are we learning right now? >> it is an interesting dynamic because typically the futures curve is higher

rishaad: a big interview coming up on bloomberg tomorrow, speaking to andy hall.o not miss that exclusive interview, 5:00 a.m. sydney time. from new york, 1:00 p.m. thursday. ♪ rishaad: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. bloomberg has been told nissan plans to repatriate more than $1 billion from its chinese subsidiary, a sign the automaker is rebuilding financial firepower as it ceases tensions. by the end of january they -- they typically reinvest profits to avoid taxes. byna is said to be in talks the core aviation assets of the struggling hna group. telling us discussions began late last year. this sprawling conglomerate tries to pay down a mountain of debt. at least two high-level meetings have been held on the subject of the flagship heinen airlines. apparently things have cooled down recently and it is unclear if talks will continue. apple suppliers in asia considering shifting iphone production out of china should tariffs on u.s. imports hit 25%. stick withers will their current operation even if the trump administration levies duties up

nejra: that was andy hall speaking exclusively to bloomberg.ders see the specter of quicker inflation is all but dead. we talking about a rollover in those breakevens, a view that clashes with strategists who see more upside ahead. falling oil prices will weigh on headline inflation, but are unlikely to pass through the core reading. they also see the possibility that trade tensions will cause inflation to accelerate. jeremy stretch is still with us. let me take you to this chart. at theually looking five-year five-year forward breakeven versus the 10 year yield. down for basis points in the session. are you on the side of the market on inflation or the side of goldman and citi? : if you arejeremy to take those trade tensions to the nth degree, you have a potential upside risk and labor markets remaining relatively tight. also, it would suggest that there may well be inflationary consequences coming through. the pull that we have seen in the oil price will have an overall reduction effect in terms of headline inflation. i think there is a real

if you wantalgos but if you are not doing well -- on the flipside, i spoke to andy hall last week, andt is a totally different trading environment than 30 years ago. you have to look for different ways to find an edge. >> it is a super difficult market, moves much faster. in that sense it is more difficult to make money, but we have had equity electric markets -- rounding, so now of the usual suspects will not cut it in this environment. we have also had studies in other markets like foreign-exchange that says high-frequency traders stick around and it is the banks are the ones that leave. i think the jury is still out on this. it is very convenient to blame boys when there could be something else going on here. alix: volatility should be good for hedge funds. keepople look at them to them stable in the downturn, so this should be a time for hedge funds to shine. blackstone says they are investing in less but in bigger ones. it is not like the market is pulling back entirely. there are still more that have closed then opened, but they are still around. a fun story,o to lots of rick peo

one person was known as the god of oil would be andy hall made something on the order of $100 millionn the past 40 years working at bp. he spoke exclusively to our alix steel. at,o use that old commodity price skills price. not only willaft impact the supply side, demand will also respond to that kind of price move. on balance, if you want to place a bet on oil right now you are probably better off betting on it going up than going down. acs had a pretty good strategy over the past 40 years. they could about the future, china is not just lurking in the wings, but possibly buying more as oil continues to fall. that could only boost the oil price even further. next, the pbocp governor says china faces from trade pressure restrictions. we will be live in beijing, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ place, the xfinity xfi gateway. and it's strengthened by xfi pods, which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. >> markets have been trading f

rishaad: andy hall speaking to alix steel. , we do have these fears there could be a glut of supply.e way down. $52.39. brent crude just above $61 a barrel. soybeans, the u.s. soybean council saying the chinese are two 2 million tons. it left people unimpressed, noisesh there are no they will be buying more. we are getting towards the japanese close for lunch. this is what it looks like there. the nikkei down 2%. topix 1.5% lower. the yen down. tapering, 10, some year yields there. japan displayed looking for help from the chinese. we will go into it. sumitomo mitsui financial, change at the top. one split., four for the closed for lunch is upon us. ♪ ed for lunch is upon us. ♪ >> this is the first word headlines. china's economy shows signs of stress with factory output and consumer demand missing forecasts. industrial production rose 5.4%, down from five point 9% and below expectations. retail sales grew a fraction over 8%, narrowly below projections. china is being warned that gestures will not settle the trade war, and that concrete measures are required. markets rose on signs th

. >> andy will be signing books in the hall. >> look it there, just about on time, too. okay. i will sign books for anybody who has one that they would like signed. elizabeth, thanks again. [inaudible conversation [inaudible conversations] now on c-span2's book tv more for serious readers. >> take a look how andrew jackson was elected president in 1828. we're going to go ahead and start. welcome to our latest lunch time lecture. i'm chief historian year at the u.s. capitol historical society. welcome. i'm really pleased today to introduce you, if you don't already now, jeanne and david heidler, they've been speakers here before for their book on george washington's circle and today we're really honored that we're one day in to the official existence of their latest book on andrew jackson. the rise of andrew jackson was just released officially yesterday so we're at the threshold of greatness here with the book and i hope you consider buying it. they're going to be able afterwards to sign it for anyone who is interested and i also want to point out that their previous book i sa

. >> andy will be signing books in the hall. >> look it there, just about on time, too. okay.i will sign books for anybody who has one that they would like signed. elizabeth, thanks again. [inaudible conversation [inaudible conversations] now on c-span2's boo

andy, who else -- congressman biggs, i should say. >> you're good, jason. >> jason: that's what we always called each other when we were there in the halls of congress.ertheless, what else can you do in these last few weeks? is there anything else congress can actually do to getet accountability in the last few weeks? >> matt's exactly right.. we have to request, push, everything we've been doing -- matt and i have been doing to get rosenstein in there. we can start answering some questions and from there, c we have to rely on the senate. the senate is going to have to continue. we are going to have to continue by pushing the holes in the democrats. it's going to be tough. >> jason: do you believe there should be a second special prosecutor? >> of course there should be. >> yes, yes. >> jason: both of these gentlemen are in favor of a second special prosecutor. i need to ask you about a former colleague of ours, the congressman from south carolina, mick mulvaney, who's the head of the office of management and budget, today being tapped byou president trump to be the deputy chief of staff. your thoughts on mick mulvaney? >> i met with mick mulvaney ov

with my bilingual hispanic town hall meetings, she's done a spectacular job of constituent outreach throughout my district. meier, she was my first legislative director. andy, been my longtime chief of snasme silent partner. andy and i met in sixth grade basketball camp at st. paul lutheran school where he went, where his kids go and we have been friends ever since. went to high school together. when i moved home to run for congress he was the go who helped me. he's been my partner in in -- in this venture all along and i am so grateful for his friendship. i'm so grateful for his partnership. i also am just grateful for the people of janesville, racine, lake geneva, racine county, kenosha county, rock county, waukesha county, everyone in between. since becoming speaker of the house, which is not something we're used to in wisconsin, i'm the only one who has done that i appreciate the indulgence of the people i work for who indulge the fact that i had other responsibilities in addition and when i took on these adegreesal responsibility the people of our staff really stepped up. and really helped serve our constituents so that they continue to enjoy those fl