joining us, andy smith from the unh survey center obviously donald trump is still there, but when you consider the margin of error, everyone is in second place. andy: everybody else' s in a snow globe and that snow globe has been shaken up and we do not know what is going to fallout. one of the interesting things i definitely made up their minds. that is typical though. we have over half of the voters still trying to decide. using polls to predict this race -- josh: sure, and i want to point this out, these poll numbers came out before -- the simple was taken before the debate, so this is not included to read but if anyone needed a good night last night it was chris christie, and he got it. andy: chris christie had a good night. the question is whether he wil get credit for standing up and taking it to marco rubio. often you see the person who stands to be side can rise up. certainly christie had to do something. what happens. race. andy: it certainly does and effort into the ground game storms. josh: let' s give it on the republican side of things with donald trump. we saw what happe

andy smith is a political science professor at the university of new hampshire.. andy smith, unh: "if donald can continue to be the brand, not donald trump the politician, donald trump who is complaining about how the election was rigged in iowa, he's got a really good chance of winning." trump supporters agree. vivian walker "trump is "not afraid to rock the boat and the boat needs to be turned over." the republican field will have its last debate before the primary saturday. democrats bernie sanders and hillary clinton hold their first one on one debate tonight. danielle nottingham channel 2 news. and mike alger will have a look but first... the number of florida counties impacted by zika virus is growing... how health officials are trying to calm concern about the diseases there, after the that's the job. and she's the one who's proven she can get it done. ...securing a massive reduction in nuclear weapons... ...standing up against the abuse of women... ...protecting social security... ...expanding benefits for the national guard... ...and winning health care f

andy smith is someone who has observed this process for a long time.t will make more difference, the debate or smaller events where new hampshireites can meet the candidates? guest: we don't know really. the debates have the potential of being very important and having a significant impact, but we don't know. we have seen sometimes which debates have been hugely important. i think the debate in 2008 with hillary clinton was important and that helped her secure the democratic win that year. but there are other times when debates are more the same so it remains to be seen. the shaking hands and meeting with people is important, but most voters really don't ever have a chance or don't bother to try to meet a candidate and shake hands with the candidate. you have the opportunity to do that in new hampshire if you want to, but most voters don't take advantage of that opportunity. i think with the campaigns are really trying to do is making sure their get out the vote machines are ready to go and identified the number of voters they think they need to have t

@as andy smith points out, much @of sanders' support comes from @the younger electorate, many of @whom are first time voters. @p>> if those people come out in @the kind of numbers we're seeing @in the poll right now, he could @win big, because of the weather, @because of campaign factors, and @people out from their side like @they did in 2008, could it be a @closer race. @josh: with 3s% support, donald @trump heads into the primary @election the clear favorite in @the republican field, and that's @about the closest thing you'll @find to a sure thing, because @from there marco rubio, ted cruz @and john kasich are all within @the margin of error. @but with more than half of @likely republican voters still @on the fence, there's lots of @room for movement. @p>> you've got five, our four @people who can finish between @second and fifth place, and i @don't think anybody could tell @you right now which one of those @people has the best chance of @coming out of there. @josh: it's about time to turn to @the numbers that matter, and @it's fair to say that there @could be a surprise or two come

andy smith is a political science professor at the university of new hampshire. >> if donald trump can continue to be donald trump the brown the politician or donald trump complainant, the election was rigged in iowa. he has a good chance of winning. >>reporter: trump supporters agree. >> is not afraid to rock the boat. >>reporter: the republican field will have a debate before saturday. clinton and sanders pulled her first one-on-one debate tonight. sanders holds a commanding lead in the polls in new hampshire, sanders and clinton are in a tug-of-war right now over who is the real progressive that might be a hot topic in tonight's debate. in new hampshire, daniel nottingham for cbs4 news. >>> our coverage for campaign 2016 does not end here. coming up we will preview tonight's democratic debate and jim will take a closer look at the fight for votes in new hampshire between florida's marco rubio and jeb bush and we next week's primary look for the live reports beginning sunday on the cbs4 news as day would cbs4 news and cbs miami.com for continuing coverage of campaign 2016. estimate c

ptom: andy smith, let' s talk pdemocrats first. pbernie sanders, how does his prace move on and how much damage pto hillary clinton? p>> bernie sanders looks more plike a serious candidate after pthis sort of a big win. pit shows there is energy on his pwithin the democratic party. phe has the under 25-year-old pvote, 82% according to the exit pjennifer: saul trump said he pneeded to win big here. pwho came out for him? p>> he has the broadest support pof any of the republican pcandidates. phe has led among all these folks pacross the board. ptom: the so-called establishment pcandidates, what has to happen pat the bottom end right now? p>> you will probably see chris pchristie dropout. pthe other candidates, if the pmoderate wing of the party wants pto come together, more than pchris christie will have to pdropout. psouth carolina will continue to pcause those people to feed on peach other support that will pfurther strengthen donald trump pgoing forward. pjennifer: what is the pconversation in the hillary pclinton campaign? p>> it

andy smith is a political science professor, at the university of new hampshire. >> donald trump can continue to be donald trump, the brand. and not donald trump, the politician. or donald trump, complaining that the election was rigged in iowa. then i think that he's got a really good chance of winning. >> reporter: trump supporters agree. >> he's not afraid to rock the boat. and the boat needs to get turned over. >> reporter: the republican field will have its last debate before the primary saturday. democrats bernie sandersers and hillary clinton hold their first one-on-one debate tonight. danielle nottingham, cbs news, durham, new hampshire. >>> in our area, virginia elections officials today threw out a loyalty pledge, republicans called for in next month's presidential primary. the gop said the oath was needed, because the state does not register the vote by party. however, party leaders asked to repeal it. >> martin shkreli was the talk on twitter today. he was subpoenaed to testify before congress. but he refused, citing the fifth amendment. he is facing federal charges for s

andy smith is a political science professor at the university of new hampshire. >> if donald trump can continue to be donald trump the brand, and not donald trump the politician, or donald trump complaining that the election was rigged in iowa, then i think that he's got a really good chance of winning. agree. >> he's not afraid to rock the boat, and the boat needs to get turned over. >>reporter: the rep en field will have its last debate before the primary saturday. democrats bernie sanders and hillary clinton hold their first one-on-one debate tonight. daniel nottingham, cbs news, durham, new hampshire. >> you know, the gop candidates still fighting for the white house in the greenville soon. they'll debate at the peace center saturday, february 13th, the day before vtd. >>>. >>> the ringling brothers circus rolled into town today. the circus will feature a legends theme, which includes mythical creatures, crowns, dancers and animals will perform and this is the last year that you'll be able to see the asian elephants before they retire dog trainer hans and his wife maria will have p

host: that was andy smith from the university of new hampshire survey center. professor smith, we appreciate you coming on c-span. guest: thank you for having me. host: two more segments coming up. we will talk with the jeb bush supporter, a bernie sanders supporter, both are former state senators. while the new hampshire, we visited the new hampshire historical society in the capital of concord and we saw some historical artifacts related to presidential campaigns. we are joined by philip dunlap, the president of the new the start -- new hampshire historical society. tell us about your collection. >> we have been collecting since we started in 1823 and we have accumulated a lot of material about new hampshire politics and national politics. >> how do you get these pieces? >> they are gifts many times, families gives us artifacts that have been in their attic or in their library. collect by-- we also paying for items. >> let's start with this banner on the wall that has buck and breck on it. >> this was carried in the election of 1850 six by republicans who wer

pwe spoke with andy smith after pthe results came in last night pand he says he was surprised by pthe margin of victory for bernie psanders, as well as the fact pthat john kasich pulled out a psecond-place finish. pandy: you can have candidates pstarting to fight with one panother -- the person who stays pin the food fight, he stays out pof the way and does not get food pall over him. pit was surprising. pit was most surprising to me pthat this was over so quickly. psean: it ended very quickly last pnight. pyou can get complete results plast -- on wmur.com. pyou can also read analysis about pthe future of the race for the pnominations. pseveral people kept copies of a pletter sent to many voters. pit provides a list of neighbors pwith a promise to let you know pif they voted. pthe attorney general' s office psays the letter is not illegal pbecause voting information is pnot public and it is not lanning to take any action. perin: a search in conway will presume this morning after a man ond and a neighbor was unable pto rescue that person. psean: a unh student goes before pthe parole bo

for the eccentric billionare. (( andy smith, unh, "if donald can continue to be the brand, not donald trump who is complaining about how the election was rigged in iowa, he's got a really good chance of winning." )) ((paul joncich)) the republican field will have its last debate before the primary this saturday. the primary will be on the 9th. /// ((paul joncich)) > we are your local election headquarters through the campaign. you can stay up to date on air and on las vegas now dot com... and watch politics now this saturday at 7:30./// ((denise valdez)) > combating a deadly virus... or condoning drug use? ((paul joncich)) the controversial way one church is choice for news. this is 8 news now at 4. ((denise valdez)) > the super bowl is just a few days away... las vegas... to make their big bets... and enjoy the big game. ((paul joncich)) jeremy aguero from applied analysis joins us to explain what this weekend means to local sportsbooks and the state of nevada. ((jeremy aguero)) the super bowl is the single- biggest day for sports betting sportsbooks will be jam packed with bettors w

andy smith is a political science professor at the university of new hampshire. >> if donald trump can continue to be donald trump, the brand, and not donald trump, the politician or donald trump, complaining that the election was rigged in iowa, then i think that he's got a really good chance of winning. >> reporter: trump supporters agree. >> he is not afraid to rock the boat, and the boat needs to get turned over. >> reporter: the republican field will have its last debate before the primary saturday. democrats bernie sanders and hillary clinton hold their first one-on-one debate tonight. daniel nottingham, cbs news, durham, new hampshire. >>> the markets ended up in dow up, nasdaq 530, s&p slightly up three points. >>> a major change in leadership for the tribal company publicly traded on the new york stock exchange. raleigh native ashton coal is the new ceo of triangle capital, a billion-dollar finance company. he spends 90 your -- 19 years and morgan stanley where he went into the financial meltdown several years ago, an experience he says the changes the way he reads. >> i take

in the meantime, we'll bring in andy smith. give us a sense of your thoughts tonight? andy: if you look at what people had to do, i think they did kind of what they had to do. first off, it was a fascinating debate. this i think was the best of all the debates so far and the most meaningful, people in new hampshire. rubio started badly but he recovered and i think he did really well but that interaction with chris christie boosted christie and i think that will be repeat the over and over again. donald trump i thought did pretty well. i know in the hall he was booed on several comments and actually attacked the audience which usually isn't a good idea but the audience he was interested in were the people at home, not watching in the hall. governors kasich and bush, the best debates for both of them. all in all, it was a good debate. even ted cruz did a pretty good job. josh: nobody had one of those moments they'll second guess and keep them weak tonight? andy: rubio will rue the day he wanted to get those first points in because he'll hear them over and over again. josh

andy smith has been the director of the university of new hampshire survey center since 1999.also teaches political science at that university. the first call for him comes thank you forand taking my call. i would like to ask you to what do you attribute the bernie sanders-trump phenomenon? i was raised to believe that we if you arefficials qualified for a job because of recommendations, experience, proven records. in both of these men, there is not much of that. heartband is a purple recipient from the korean war, and bernie sanders was on the committee for veterans quagmireation and the resulted in men dying, not getting treatment and we are only hearing about it. what did he do for the veterans to change that? host: thank you. mr. smith? guest: it is interesting. we have come around to think that the qualifications for a president means you must have office,revious elected governor or at least a senator. that is a more recent phenomenon. the founding fathers outlined what the characteristics were for office, and they were integrity, strength of character, honesty and wisdom

pjoining us for a closer look at pthe numbers, andy smith of the punh survey center. pwhat is your takeaway? pthere was an impact when it pcomes to marco rubio. p>> he seems to have gotten penough media attention to get a pbounce here. pthe thing i am focusing on is phow popular and unpopular the pvarious candidates are. pdonald trump' s leading in polls pbut also has about 35% of prepublicans saying they will not plot of headroom. pjosh: you have not heard them t win* pdo you expect to hear that ptonight? p>> i think we will hear that ptonight. pi think these polls are starting pto indicate the fact he is down pto almost single digits. psingle digits is striking good pto -- striking distance. pi think they will go after him pmore strongly. phe is not so far ahead of the prest of the pack that they will pfeel threatened. pjennifer: how much are we psolidifying the undecided pblocks? p>> on the recovered inside, more pthan half are undecided. p2012, three days before the pelection, 46% said that is when pthey made up their mind. pi think we are looking at the psame pos

and joining me now andy smith, the director of the survey center.is exciting here this morning and you heard jeff reporting. 44% of the voters here how you can walk in and make your decision there. and how important is that going to be? you have more undecided on the republican side. >> the undecided is the important story. new hampshire has high turnout. the people voting here by and large are not political activists but the undeclared or independent is largely a myth. the great majority are either democrat or republican. >> people say they are independent. when push comes to show they. >> 3 to 5% are people truly in a position to take one ballot or the other and no candidate has ever won without winning a plurality of the part's registered voters. >> you have to win the base. >> what about what we've seen in terms of this dixville notch. the entertainment of it. it is a tiny little town. kasich and sanders win. but as a predictive nature, nothing? >> it's not really predictive. the town is essentially hoetel and the people who vote there work at t

andy smith has been the director of the university of new hampshire survey center since 1999. he also teaches political science at that university. the first call for him comes thank you forand taking my call. i would like to ask you to what do you attribute the bernie sanders-trump phenomenon? i was raised to believe that we if you arefficials qualified for a job because of recommendations, experience, proven records. in both of these men, there is not much of that. heartband is a purple recipient from the korean war, and bernie sanders was on the committee for veterans quagmireation and the resulted in men dying, not getting treatment and we are only hearing about it. what did he do for the veterans to change that? host: thank you. mr. smith? guest: it is interesting. we have come around to think that the qualifications for a president means you must have office,revious elected governor or at least a senator. that is a more recent phenomenon. the founding fathers outlined what the characteristics were for office, and they were integrity, strength of character, honesty and wi

andy smith is political science professor at the university of new hampshire. >> donald trump can continue to be donald trump the brand, and not donald trump the politician or donald trump complaining that the election was rigged in iowa, then i think he had a really good chance of winning. >> reporter: trump supporters agree. >> he is not afraid to rock the boat and the boat needs to get turned over. >> reporter: republican field will have its last debate before the primary saturday. democrat bernie sanders and hillary clinton hold their first one on one debate tonight. danielle nottingham for cbs-3 "eyewitness news". >>> officialness florida are bracing for a battle against rapidly spreading zika virus. the florida governor has declared a healthy mergecy for five counties there. the florida department of health confirms travelers contracted 12 cases of zika in the sunshine state and the governor is now asking for the help from the feds. >> a as for test kits from the cdc, we will ask the cdc to inform people. >> reporter: mosquitoes are rapidly spreading zika in latin america and caribbe

>> reporter: andy smith directs the university of new hampshire's survey center. >> we are seeing thet important issue mentioned by democrats for why they're going to choose who to support are economic issues. >> reporter: he's been talking with his classes about the candidates. >> the problem with clinton is she is much, much further behind sanders than she was obama in 2008. >> reporter: sanders and clinton's middle class policies differ in scope. both would spend on infrastructure, a stimulus plan, to create jobs. clinton's plan is $275 billion, sanders $1 trillion. clinton aims to make public universities cost a lot less. sanders would make them tuition free. clinton: she'd cut out-of-pocket health care costs. sanders, he proposes government- provided single payer health care for all. on the trail, a big rift has opened over the definition of the middle class. both candidates would raise some taxes on the wealthy. but sanders' would start at lower income levels, which clinton implies would hit the middle class. >> i'm the only candidate standing here tonight who has said i will no

ptom: andy smith, he carried on pmailman. pi know that his mother and pfather were killed in an pautomobile accident back in p1987, hit by a drunk driver. phe has carried that with him for pall these years. phe is very true to himself, i pwould say. pdo you agree? pandy: i would say so. pone thing he faced an uphill pbattle with, there' s about 20% pof the electorate and he was phammered by talk radio hosts pacross the country. phis support among those plisteners was really poor. pbut he was able to focus on pvoters who would be accepting to phis message and it seems like he pgot enough of them to get the pcarolina. pconservative, but yet a social pmoderate. pandy: that' pof abortion wary -- where he is retty staunchly pro-life. phe has to work on seeing how pmany of the other moderate prepublicans are going to come pthrough. pit looks like jeb bush will come pthrough and he has the resources pto stay on. pmarco rubio will go on as well. pchris christie, perhaps not. phe still has to fight with two pother people with a more p

andy smith, a political scientist and pollster at the university of new hampshire. ryan williams is here, former spokesman for governor mitt romney. great to have both of you here. i have to begin with you, ryan. having been in the trenches with the romney team, you know, to watch trump and jeb bush. i mean, they're equally guilty in using this sort of language. i call it third grade language. i kind of feel like that's what it is. why, though, to you think trump is hammering so hard on jeb bush? >> because jeb bush is the only candidate right now taking on trump. he's the front-runner. >> but others have in the past. >> they didn't do it strongly enough. no one is tough enough right now besides jeb bush to stand up to donald trump on policy and on the outrageous statements he's made. he's insulted war veterans. he's talked about banning people because of their religion. jeb bush is the only candidate who has the courage to stand up. >> is there anything, to use analogies made by donald trump, about being the schoolyard bully, that chooses a target that, like, he's

we want to go to andy smith at the survey center. what you think so far? the numbers we're seen on the screen mostly the city of manchester, how are the candidates performing. >> let's talk about the democratic side. i think we can cover that quickly. hillary clinton win new hampshire she would have had to win manchester by about 55% of the vote. for her to do okay and keep things in single digits she would've had to get about 50% minimum in manchester. she in manchester. she is well under that right now. we don't have all of the words and obviously but she is not in a strong position at all, that tells the story about manchester. on the republican side it's very interesting because what we are seen in the early wards is that donald trump is doing strong in the more blue-collar towns across the state. casey is doing well, some of the more upscale, you see casey can rubio doing better. the overall thing is that the numbers are not that much different than the pre-election polls. instead of getting much of a balance out of iowa or impact on the debate that i

director of the university of new hampshire survey center andy smith. i'm also joined by cnn political analyst and editor of the daily beast john avalon. good morning. so trump is leading big in south carolina. a state that usually votes for establishment candidates. how do you stop trump if he wins in south carolina? >> very difficult. i think the role that trump is on right now has always been difficult to stop. momentum in the early primary states is very important. however we have had the incidents of 2012, where the establishment didn't really do so well. remember back then newt gingrich was able to win south carolina and win fairly convincingly there. he got about 40% of the vote back in 2012. so, you know, it happens that local conditions can occur. but the problem that i see with south carolina this time around for establishment republicans if they want to try to stop trump is they still have three candidates dividing the vote between the three kasich, rubio and bush. you are only at about 34% of the vote compared to trump's 45. so you still fal

we want to go to andy smith. what do you think so far of these numbers on the screen? mostly the city of manchester, how are they performing? >> let's talk about the democratic side because we can cover this quickly. hillary clinton to win new hampshire, she needed to win manchester by 55% of the vote. for her to keep things in single digits, she needed to get a 50% minimum and manchester. she is well under that right now, and we still do not have all of the boards in. a strong position at all. that tells the story looking at manchester. on the republican side, things are very interesting because what we are seeing in some of the early numbers is donald trump doing especially strong in the more blue-collar towns across the state. john kasich is doing well in concord and the upscale towns. you see him and rubio doing a little bit better there. that is not surprising. the overall thing, the numbers are not too much different than the pre-election polls we have seen. that an interesting race we saw over the last week, instead of getting much of a bounce out of iowa, this

tastes like now. >> sc etchup -- ketchup is also good on pasta. >> dave smith, jedediah bila and rob long. that does it for me. i'm andyevy. >> go to hell andy levy.

smith passed away over the community has an opportunity to pay their respects...details on a public memorial service...after the break. "you're watching channel 2 news this morning with john potter, andi guevara and meteorologist it's caucus day for nevada republicans... and it comes with two more presidential hopefuls campaigning in the silver state. donald trump and ted cruz - hoping to garner some last minu welcome back. turning to our community now... the city of reno began installing 12 new solar-powered trash compactors yesterday. you may have seen them before - the city has about 20 of them already. these big-belly compactors will line virginia street through downtown... ultimately helping with the city's blight initiative. david bobzien, councilmember city of reno: "it's less trash in the street downtown, it's harder for people to rummage through them for to pull out stuff they want to find, so we end up with less trash on the street. " by using solar power... officials say the compactors promote a more energy efficient community. and by compacting the trash to reduce the amount of pick-ups needed to empty them... they also help reduced fuel garbage trucks. and the public memo

andy griffith still alive? we'll talk wings and things with ceo sally smith. >>> welcome back, everybody.ren taking a beating. the company earned an adjust the $1.54 a share well below what street was looking for, that forecast of $2.13 a share. revenue was below estimates. the company lowered 2016 guidance. the chairman of ralph lauren called recent results disappointing but he's confident about future. stock down 11.5%. >> oil prices and china slow down stressing out the markets. where should you be putting your money in these volatile times? we have the head of global equity portfolio manager. >> reporter: good morning and hello from super bowl city. >> you are very lucky. before we get into your picks, your sense of just where we are in the markets? >> well technically we think that the market is due for a bounce but we don't see any bounces being sustainable until oil prices stabilize. until then we expect a lot of this volatility to continue and that's why we prefer staying in the relative safety of developed markets. >> no recession? >> we're not seeing a recession right now. in th

in the meantime, we'll bring in andy smith. give us a sense of your thoughts tonight? andy: if you look at what people had to do, i think they did kind of what they had to do. first off, it was a fascinating debate. this i think was the best of all the debates so far and the most meaningful, people in new hampshire.

pjoining us for a closer look at pthe numbers, andy smith of the punh survey center. pwhat is your takeaway? pthere was an impact when it pcomes to marco rubio. p>> he seems to have gotten penough media attention to get a pbounce here.