thank you, andy verity. that's it from _ stagnating. thank you, andy verity.you, andy verity. that's it from me for _ stagnating. thank you, andy verity. that's it from me for the _ stagnating. thank you, andy verity. that's it from me for the moment. i that's it from me for the moment. let's go to ben in the west of ukraine. one month ago today, russian troops invaded ukraine and shocked the world. since then, thousands of civilians, ukrainian soliders and russian troops have been killed. some cities, like mariupol, have faced a relentless russian bombardment and suffered almost complete destuction. president putin has never called it a war, but rather a "special operation" to demilitarise his neighbour. these areas in red are the territory in ukraine where russian forces are. president zelensky has called it a "terrible, dark month of destruction" and urged people around the world to come out and protest against the invasion. today, leaders of the 30 nations in the nato military alliance are holding an emergency summit meeting in brussels. more on that in a

andy verity, bbc news. the time is 13:17. our top story this lunchtime.n ukraine because his back is against the wall. and still to come... we're in stoke with local legend neil baldwin — as his �*marvellous' life is brought to the stage. coming up on the bbc news channel: manchester city and liverpool supporters unite to get their fa cup semifinal moved away from wembley due to travel difficulties facing fans, with no direct trains to the capital on the weekend of the game. rescuers at the site of a plane crash in southern china have found burnt wreckage and personal belongings of those on board, but no sign of any survivors. china eastern flight mu—5735 was carrying 132 people when it nosedived 30,000 feet into hills in guangxi yesterday. the cause of the crash is being investigated. recovery work has been hampered by difficult terrain as andrew plant reports. rescue workers walking through the night. pieces of the wreckage spread across this remote hillside area, but there is little hope of survivors. the boeing 737—800 thought to have nosedived from 3

andy verity, bbc news. her daughter's death increased to 12 years at the court of appeal. frankie smith, who's 20, was jailed in decemberfor her role in the death of the 16—month—old. star hobson was killed by her mother's former partner, savannah brockhill, at keighley in west yorkshire in september 2020. the scottish government is due to announce this afternoon whether all of its covid legal restrictions will be removed next week. rules would be replaced by guidance on how to minimise risk. there were lots of changes made during the pandemic and being able to hold outdoor weddings and civil partnerships was one of them. now they will be legalised permanently in england and wales. before, civil ceremonies had to take place indoors, or outdoors within a permanent structure like a bandstand. jenny kumah reports. getting married during the pandemic. restrictions and social distancing moved many ceremonies outdoors. before, civil ceremonies had to be held indoors or outside in a permanent structure like a band

andy verity, bbc news. let's speak now to our correspondent jenny hill, who's in moscow.y and the kremlin has been responding by saying it's going to think seriously about the us sanctions. yes, that's right. the spokesman for the kremlin hasjust said the kremlin is analysing president biden�*s decision to stop buying oil from russia. we understand president putin is looking at blocking exports of raw materials from russia but we don't have details yet on how that would work and what it would actually mean in practice. in the meantime, the kremlin is trying hard to mitigate the effects of current sanctions. the moscow stock exchanges and trading today. people with foreign currency bank accounts are being restricted as to how much they can take out. but whatever the kremlin does, for the average russian, even if they get all their information from state television, they can't help but notice something is afoot. prices are starting to go up. some supermarkets are starting to limit how much they can buy, and these western brands are disappearing. we are not yet seeing here t

andy verity, bbc news.spondent, jenny hill, who's in moscow, and the kremlin saying it's going to think seriously about how to respond to us sanctions? is it too early to tell the full extent of it and the impact on russia? i extent of it and the impact on russia? ~ , ., ., ., , , ., russia? i think your average russian is auoin to russia? i think your average russian is going to find _ russia? i think your average russian is going to find it _ russia? i think your average russian is going to find it difficult _ russia? i think your average russian is going to find it difficult not - russia? i think your average russian is going to find it difficult not to - is going to find it difficult not to see that things are changing. it's not just at those western brands are pulling out, it is also that they are starting to see prices go up. some supermarkets limiting the amount people can buy. but you are right, we are yet to see the dietrich pain that most analysts say your average russian is going to experience on

andy verity, bbc news. us and eu have said they will target superyachts, and at least eight have been seized so far. more remain at large — some are on the move, others are moored in places that are safe from sanctions, including the maldives. our reality check reporterjake horton is with me in the studio. he horton is with me in the studio. joins us now. in te coach he joins us now. in terms of the coach dashed the owner, what we know about ten? ., , ., ., about ten? that chelsea fc owner, so this is my solaris _ about ten? that chelsea fc owner, so this is my solaris and _ about ten? that chelsea fc owner, so this is my solaris and eclipse, - about ten? that chelsea fc owner, so this is my solaris and eclipse, and - this is my solaris and eclipse, and these are huge vessels, both of them estimated to cross over $500 million and they have onboard cinemas, onboard jams, one of them even has its own submarine, so they are prized assets, but he is under sanctions from the eu in the uk meaning that if those ya

andy verity, bbc news. that many people... it's left many people on edge here in new york city, in dc, and in the cities in between such as baltimore, because this man was clearly travelling from dc to new york and committing these murders over a two—week span, so he was essentially a serial killer on the loose. but now we're learning that police may have the man that they've been looking for in custody. this morning, officers with the atf washington field division arrested a suspect as he was walking in the capital. it's not confirmed, but it appears that these officers were alerted by someone who may have recognised him from the surveillance stills that police handed out yesterday, when they had a press conference. and the reason why i say that is because, in a tweet early this morning, the dc police department thanked people for their tips. so we still don't have any information this morning on the suspect�*s name or his age or perhaps the motive behind these gruesome shootings. in a video, though, that

our economics correspondent andy verity is outside the bank of england.prise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting _ surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting we _ surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting we would - surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting we would get i have been predicting we would get the third consecutive rate rise in a row. it's not a surprise given the current economic context. what the bank of england policymakers are saying is that there's been a succession of large shocks to the economy. you already knew about the pandemic, and after the global reopening of the economy, after that pandemic, there was a surge in demand and supply of basic commodities from petrol, oil, gas, to steel and wood, etc, didn't keep up to steel and wood, etc, didn't keep up with that surging demand, and when you don't get supply matching demand, that's when you get price rises, so we've had inflation all around the world. in the united states that 7.9%. the latest measure here was 5.5% on the co

andy verity, bbc news. we can now assess the situation in ukraine more broadly.that _ make of that? you have got to remember that the _ make of that? you have got to remember that the original i make of that? you have got to - remember that the original purpose of putin's invasion seems to have been to actually take over ukraine and to have it governed by people who were friendly to russia, in other words toadies, and that ukraine would become part of russia once again. but what president zelensky is saying is that we have blocked that, the ukrainians with their incredible resistance, they have not blocked the certainty that russia is going to take more territory of ukraine i can't see any alternative to that, if things carry on as they are, but we do know that the most important thing is that ukraine will continue as an independent government and an independent government and an independent country with its own way of doing things which were not necessarily be that of russia. the comparison is always with finland, when stalin invaded in 1939, and a great achieve

andy verity, bbc news.me. what is it telling us about the state of the health, if you like, of the underlying economy? what we have seen is a strong recovery in employment terms after the covid crisis. one year ago we had millions of people on furlough schemes, so in that sense, the recovery has gone well. what no one expected was the real surge in inflation we have seen this year. we just to the economic recovery and then hit by large increases in house prices and prices as you covered in your piece there. we have 4% wage growth in cash terms, which is actually not bad, the better than precrisis measures, but would now prices above 5% and in the spring it might be heading towards 8% once we get that energy cap and others before taking into account potential caps on food prices due to the war in ukraine, so it is going to be a really bad year in terms of living standards for many households up and down the country. you standards for many households up and down the country.— down the country. you have pointe

our economics correspondent, andy verity, told us from outside the bank of england that today's movendemic, and the global reopening of the economy, after that pandemic, there was a surge in demand and supply of basic commodities from petrol, oil, gas to steel and wood. it didn't keep up with that surging demand. when you don't get supply matching to man, that's when you get price rises, so we fight inflation all around the world in the united states. 7.9%. the latest measure here was 5.5%. but the bank of england is now predicting that in the second quarter of this year, inflation will get up to 8% at its peak and possibly higher later in the year. so those global inflation pressures exacerbated by the war in ukraine are certainly likely to see interest rates rise perhaps up to 2% by the end of this year. the rates rise perhaps up to 296 by the end of this year.— end of this year. the federal reserve says _ end of this year. the federal reserve says raise _ end of this year. the federal reserve says raise its - end of this year. the federal reserve says raise its cute i end of this

andy verity explains.nd itself economically and one of the things they have done is made it harderfor them to made it harder for them to sell theirforeign currency their foreign currency reserves in central banks around the world, and that has led to a severe decline in the rubble, it has lost a quarter of its value, but arguably it has made its value, but arguably it has made it harderfor russia its value, but arguably it has made it harder for russia to make ordinary payments to maintain debts like this. however, as you mentioned, the hundred and $70 million, compared to $150 billion they have outstanding in debt, is not a vast amount, has according to the russian finance ministry has gone across. in any case they have a 30 day grace period so it's quite likely that an official default would not be declared by any rating agencies until that en route back to the uk. but after years in detention — and many diplomatic efforts — some are asking why this has happened now. nazanin zaghari—ratcliffe has been re

income tax from 20p to 19p before the end of the current parliament. 0ur economics correspondent andy verityil. i'v e i've heard that so many times this afternoon! he will make far more sense. i afternoon! he will make far more sense. ., , afternoon! he will make far more sense. .,, , , afternoon! he will make far more sense. , , ., sense. i hope so. this is all auainst sense. i hope so. this is all against a — sense. i hope so. this is all against a picture _ sense. i hope so. this is all against a picture of - sense. i hope so. this is all against a picture of surging | against a picture of surging inflation. you can look at how inflation's doing in the last 30 years. we have the highest. it's shows how low it's been as much as how high it is now, but it's not going to stop there. the prediction was it would settle down where the orange line is, but it's now predicted it will shoot up where that red line is. 8.7% is the prediction for where it will peak, an average of seven point —— 7.4%. although you have wages, they won't be enough to keep up. that nasty little red line is the size of th

— andy verity. can you talk us through some of the numbers?e of the numbers? sure, the big story is information and if you - some of the numbers? sure, the big story is information and if you look l story is information and if you look at the rate of inflation, we have a chart of that comparing it to how it has been over the last ten years. it's actually hitting its highest level for a decade. you can see there, 6.2%. but that is still not double figures. some people may be viewing this thinking i remember in the 1970s and 1980s when inflation got into double digits. it's not there yet but this highest rate in 30 years is how low it has been for the last 30 years rather than anything else. but as we were hearing, there is lots of inflationary pressure coming through inflationary pressure coming through in raw material costs. for example, they are up 14.7% in the year to february. then let's look at what is happening to economic growth because of calls that really counts for the chancellor. economic growth is... it's on that it depends what tax

let's take a closer look at the figures — here's our economics correspondent, andy verity.s you mentioned, is the big story. - here. the inflation story, as you | mentioned, is the big story. look here. the inflation story, as you - mentioned, is the big story. look at a chart of what has happened to inflation over the last ten years, you can see it has gone up higher thanit you can see it has gone up higher than it has for a decade. in fact, it is the highest for 30 years, 6.2% rise in the cost of living and that is a lot down to energy bills, petrol price, the average petrol price is £1 65 petrol price, the average petrol price is £165 a petrol price, the average petrol price is £1 65 a litre at the pumps. the question for rishi sunak, what will he do to help households without a cost of living? what will he do about economic growth? but haven't been looking particularly great recently. this is a chart going back to the financial crisis, you can see a dip but look at this great big bungeejumping economy has done over here. that is the pandemic when activity was artificial

doesn't sound | like it at all, thank you very much, andy verity.alled for, so credit to the chancellor on that score. the more short term thing he has done is increase the amount of support he announced in february targeting vulnerable households through something called the household support scheme that will come through local authorities but it's an additional 500 million and our sense of where energy prices are going to go and where bills will be an october is that whilst in absolute terms this is a big package for any treasury, in relative terms to what else is going on in the economy it is probably not enough and as tony danker sat on behalf of british business, for british households we think the treasure will will need to keep support under review. �* . will will need to keep support under review. . , ,. ., ,, will will need to keep support under review. . , ,. ., , , ., ., review. vat being scrapped on home ener: review. vat being scrapped on home energy saving _ review. vat being scrapped on home energy saving measures _ review. vat being

let's get more on this from our economics correspondent andy verity.essive large shocks to the economy. covid then the resurgence of covid with then the resurgence of covid with the omicron variant and now the war in ukraine which have had an unpleasant effect. the economy was already searching back around the world after the pandemic began to lift and that created an imbalance between supply and demand, huge surge in demand and supply not catching up. before the war in ukraine there were inflationary pressures to head off. but now the bank of england is saying that they do expect inflation to peak at 8%, higher than its previous prediction. 8% inflation is the official prediction now for the second quarter of this year and the hope is that after that it subsides. but the interest rate centres are giving out a warning, when you look at energy prices into the future partly because of the war in ukraine it is looking like energy bills will bump up, notjust next month but also at the next reset of those bills in october. the risk is for the bank of englan

our economics correspondent andy verity has sent this from the bank of england for us.hen you don't get supply matching demand, that's when you get price rises, so we've had inflation all around the world. in the united states that 7.9%. the latest measure here was 5.5% on the consumer prices index, but the bank of england is predicting in the second quarter of this year inflation will get up to 8% at its peak and possibly higher later in the year, so those global inflationary pressures exacerbated by the war in ukraine are certainly likely to see interest rates rise even more, perhaps up to 2% by the end of year. now it's time for a look at the weather with chris fawkes. hello there. the weather is looking largely dry over the next week or so as high pressure begins to build but before we get there today we have a few showers and notice this narrow band of rain crossing scotland and northern ireland and that will give about 10—15 minutes of rain and eventually later this afternoon that will move into the far north of england and south of that it is dry quite brisk gust