aneta: absolutely.sion is inevitable because the fed has to push unit labor costs from 18% down to 2%. that will be hard without creating more slack but i do not think it is imminent. you typically see broad-based cycles after periods of margin compression, cash burn and deterioration. it is when businesses see their balance sheets at risk, when they shift from expansion to cost-cutting and we are not there yet. i think we are quarters away from that. we are just beginning that cycle. up until now, businesses had pricing power. while they have been experiencing pressure they have been passing them through preserving margins. i think margin pressures will intensify the next three or four quarters, but given that our base is that we will not go into recession until the second half of next year. from their i do not think it will be deep but it will last five quarters. the main reason being we go into that recession from elevated inflation. that means the fed will not be able to ease as quickly and aggressi

to buy staples and names more reserescissors s tent to down turns do you want to piggyback on what aneta was just saying? >> well, i think what she is saying basically is a recession is coming just not as soon as many people think. and i'm of the thought that recession is coming sooner than perhaps was just suggested i think that you are not going to see the slack in retail for a month or two after you start to see the rather significant interest rate increases. and while energy prices have come down, which is a positive, which certainly will help inflation, there is still high points, we're still talking $5, $6 gasoline. so goldilocks is a nice thing to talk about, but i think that perhaps it is more appropriate to be a bit more conservative and not hope for goldilocks, but look at a base case scenario significantly slowingfu economyi not recession. >> and we hear more and more hiding out at costco and johnson & johnson? >> yeah, i think you want to look for names that will be resistant in some respects regardless what happens with the economy. and of course that depends what is appropr