answers -- anna edwards joins us outside of london. can you expect in london in parliament and what with -- what have we heard thus far? interesting talking but the tone because that might be something we want to watch for in terms of what we hear today in parliament. the letter that theresa may assigned last night, on its way to brussels. timber oh is the eu and hands that over to donald tusk. that is the procedure of events that take place today. 1:20 in brussels. at the same time theresa may will speak to parliament and a lot of people will be very interested in the tone that she does adopt. to what extent will it be conciliatory, some suggesting that can be something that guides markets, guides the currency markets in particular. i will pick it up here in brussels and ask allen in berlin, how is this going to be received around the different eu capitals? >> already a sense of genuine progress across the capitals. that a lotlderment of government officials that we speak to regard as the u.k. --tting itself in the foot shooting itsel

let's go to westminster now and anna edwards. anna: very pleased to say i'm joined by the labour party shadow brexit minister in westminster. let me start by asking, we start the clock today, the clock starts ticking -- we understand that perhaps the mandate will be to just negotiate initially on the terms of the divorce. what kind of disappointment would that be from a u.k. negotiator's perspective? >> i think that will be a mistake. i accept that you can't do with the divorce and the new agreement incompletion in the two years, but it is very important that as we go through the article 50 process, we have a clear idea what the future relationship will look like. for me, the ideal outcome is we have a full article 50 deal in two years, we have transitional arrangements, and then we have a collaborative new international treaty that sets out the changed relationship. that will take time, but you need to weave in what the future looks like. anna: yousef out six tests for the brexit deal. one of those is securing the same benefits a

i am anna edwards in westminster. manus: i am manus cranny in london.if it is sealed, and technically on its way to be delivered. article and two years of negotiations. the scene from westminster today. anna: theresa may last night spent some time on the phone speaking to jean-claude uecker. what will the tone of the b, that is something we will learn more about later today. the letter spent the morning passing the channel into the hands of the u.k. ambassador to the eu. he hands it to donald tusk. we get more details of what was in that letter, what was the tone like, does it address the divorce bill at all, does it address the rights of eu citizens in the u.k. or do we have to leave all of that for another day? perhaps it will be some disappointment here if we see the hands of michelle bonnier tied. we will see in the days ahead. let's check in on how the markets are doing. equities are set for a higher open according to futures. you're seeing of risk rebound across the equity space, up by .2 of 1% despite saw the outages from the cyclone down in aust

let's get more from anna edwards, who is with gina miller.ually, you are joining us on the line, gina. great to have you on the program. i think she is on the line from westminster. otherwise, i will ask my guests on set. simon, peter, thanks for sticking around. the pound andat we talked about the support levels, is it because of the referendum or is it just that markets are complacent? we do not really have new information, so there is no point panicking until we have concrete evidence of where we are headed. personally, i think the markets may be a little complacent, because i think they are probably mispricing the degree of resistance within the you in this -- the e.u. that could affect market few weeks the next and months. but i think the trend will remain broadly flat. francine: are there expected to be a lot of zigzags? simon: i think the issue will wax in wayne in the favor of the favor of thene in e.u. and the u.k. andhe u.k. votes to leave the markets will go down, i will wear braces -- that's what i told tom. but whether the admini

let's get more from anna edwards. so let's talk about the brexit timetable. what does it look like? like the last week of march. the commons decided to back the government. very few rebels on the conservative side of things in last night's vote. the lord timothy bell that definitive vision deciding not to fight the government on this anymore. this allows theresa may to trigger article 50 as early as this week, but it is likely to happen in the last week of march and specifically between the 27th and the 30th. from our analysis, that looks most likely. celebrations to commemorate the treaty of rome. that is when the countdown starts. that is where we create the graphic that says "countdown to brexit," possibly. guy: how do scotland, kid that clock? anna: little more clarity between what they're choosing for an independence referendum. will be ae choices scotland who may or may not stay or be able to join the european union, and the u.k., which has an uncertain relationship at that point in time with it you -- the e.u. faced in scotland will be with that choice in spring, 2019. guy: th

i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny. breaking news. na: the german pharmaceutical business merged if an update. a couple of headlines coming in at 1.20 per share. euros, ebit 400 and 5 million. -- 405 million. net income figure for the first quarter of 269 million euros. these are the numbers coming through as we speak. the broader story, the expectation from morgan stanley is that these would be a strong revenue but there were several moving parts in 2017 that will likely drive a cautious guidance. 1.3 -- 1.43 europe's, yesterday was 1.42. manus: some of the big drivers, the probability of a rate hike -- unitedted fans states stands at 100%. inflation, reflation, the great reflation trade. this is what china produced. the ppi nevers. busting through 7.8% on the chinese prices. that is the most since 2008. it is more a question that cpi has underperformed. how strong is that? does that remain intact? anna: export prices run the world, how much of the chinese consumer? the future for the chinese economy. a reorientation of the chinese ec

i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny. are you exhausted?ave you already spent your possessions on affects? . the probability event of a rate hike has gone from 30% to 90%. what has happened to the dollar, it has faded. butd glory this morning passes the moving average. band, we aren a trying to make our lined up what we want to move, fire, or aggressively trade. the best winning streak since may. anna: we wait for janet yellen to speak. putting for thoughts. let's put up the risk radar to show you where we are. and japan dropping after three days. japane the number out of and an increase since december 2015. that is being overshadowed by the biggest questions. appetite how much anybody has to continue the global rally. we saw stocks retreating from those highs. raw materials in retreat which led the stocks down. markets are talking about a fall in rick -- attacks. you have the total volume however, 40% below the 100 day average. the bottom line is this -- do you believe in stockpiles in the united states america is going to trump what opec

i am anna edwards. let's describe what has been called the night of the long knives in the south african political despair -- sphere. dhe devaluation of the ran coming through as president zuma replaces his finance minister. gordon is out, replaced by somebody with little financial experience. the former finance minister, speaking on the phone to bloomberg in the last few minutes, saying there are a range of characters troubling the treasury. andion between him and zuma part of the anc. also saying south africa's treasury has a strong team of professionals. we will discuss this through the program. certainly, the new minister does not seem to have from the cv to have a great deal of experience. anc, could split. the presidency could be called into question. a fairly popular emerging market destination. let's come back to the south africa story shortly, but we will check out where we are on various assets in the overnight sessions. the bloomberg dollar index hanging onto its gains. fed commentary coming

anna: welcome back. this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm and edwards. 6:20 in london. liette saly has the bloomberg business flash. juliette: anna, thank you. scotland's largest insurance standard is in talks to acquire aberdeen asset management. terms, standard life shareholders would own 67% of the combined group. the tie up would create one of europe's biggest fund managers, overseeing 660 billion pounds. south korea is a special prosecutor has accused samsung's de facto head and other executives of conspiring to create fake documents to mask millions of dollars in bribes to a confidant of the nation's president. committeded to have perjury when he said he didn't know his company had paid money to entities controlled by the president, and wasn't asked by the president to provide financial support. responding to this morning's announcement, samsung says the company has not given bribes or made improper requests for favors. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. let's turn our attention to what has happened in the u.s. fed chair janet yellen

bloomberg's anna edwards is at westminster this morning. what otherbrexit, clouds could be on the horizon for the u.k. economy? anna: thanks. we heard from snp. -- s&p. they see it gradually losing momentum. we get to philip hammond later he will talk about making and keeping the economy match fit for the brexit negotiations. he will paid a strong picture of the u.k. economy. it has outperformed expectations and outperform the expectations of the office of budget responsibility, and they are the body that sets the forecast from which the government dated its tax-and-spend plan. what should counselor hammon focus on? let's get voices on this story we are joined by lady barbara judge, from the chair over at the iod. great to have you on the program. one of your big issues at the moment is around taxation and the way that work is taxed. we might hear a little bit about that today but there is a commission coming in this summer. >> first of all, we think that there should be, the tax commission should look at the whole system. we have an old tax

anna edwards has the latest from westminster. what are we expecting? you very much, guy. reflectsment belly three on the -- an assessment that least reflects on that. he will be wanting to get the economy match fit for the exit negotiations that are set to take place. forecasts on which the government bases its tax and spending plans. it looks as if they will get the chance for more room to maneuver and more room to build up that for a rainy day that you might need when the brexit negotiations get underway. that is what we are looking for for this year, and what will they say about the deficit? has he got another 12 billion pounds worth in this financial year in terms of room for maneuver and what does that do to gilt issuance? care,of money for social retailers facing higher taxes, and invested in the productivity fund. of course, all budgets take place against a very political backdrop, and today is definitely one of those. the lord last night, as we were saying earlier on in programming, voting to increase the ability of the parliament to veto what t

i'm anna edwards. miller, here matt in brussels following the euro group and euro meetings. a lot to talk about today, anna, especially as it relates to trade and brexit. anna: absolutely. we will get to those in a moment. let's talk about emerging markets. we saw during the asian session that this has been once again one of the big themes, msci up for its eighth straight day. this is the largest track of the index. if you zoom to the far side of the screen, that unassuming bar represent something quite significant, $225 million worth of inflow into this etf that tracks msci. that is the most since august. this is a little backward looking, at as we are hearing sayinge fed overnight, there is no need to rush on interest rates, it seems the market is assuming there is no rush and therefore you get involved in emerging market assets. e.m. stocks extended their longest winning streak since august. matt: yeah. the asian session, very interesting. we will have a full update for you with juliette saly in a minute. i want to show you the topix index. japanese markets were down overn

i am anna edwards. cranny in thenus hague where the horse trading against. liberalism has won the day. .gainst the populists a vote for europe, a vote against extremism. 13 parties will haggle to form a government here in the hague. anna: we will come back to that story throughout the program. into.ating story to delve let's talk about what is happening in markets. the msci asia-pacific making gains this morning. we have an interest rate hike from the fed but no suggestion of an accelerated pace of tightening. global stocks rallied, local bonds rallied. the dollar fell off yesterday. that is a little bit weaker, it was weaker this morning as well. that has stabilized a bit and we are flat. as euro dollar in their well. we did see the euro hitting a one-month high. the defeat of wilders. china following the fed with not a typical interest rate hike but increasing some borrowing costs with targeting -- targeted instruments. to over interpret the monetary action. be higher oncel again at the start of the trading day. as the fed moves we see markets around the w

. -- anna edwards. manus cranny. 13 million dutch people go to the polls, the open in just under 13 minutes. immigration, integration, and islam are the key issues in this debate. the issue is populism goes to the polls in europe today and the dutch put a firewall. the exit polls will be at adequate p.m. tonight, we will be live in the hague. manus on the ground to cover the dutch elections. with us throughout the program. is coming in.news coming in.bitda shy the 1.4 billion that was estimated. sales were up by 13%. giving us some guidance on the picture as a report the full-year numbers. 1.6full-year net profit billion. that is in line with the 1.6 billion that had been estimated. let's leave the retailer there for the moment and watch shares at the start of trade. we need to talk about volatility and -- in a number of places. oil is increasingly one of those. give uti soaring overnight. all of that mixing in here. we're up by 1.7% on the price of a barrel of crude at 48.56. we have down by 2.7% in th

i am anna edwards. matt: i am met miller in berlin. really exciting time following the d -- g-20 two in bodden bodden -- baden-baden. and here onn berlin their daybreak show, good to have you on the program. let's characterized we saw in u.s. equity markets. substantial loss of 1% coming through on the major u.s. indices you do you say this is a questioning of the reflation trade, a questioning of the trump trade? it depends on a extent to which you think the trump trade was priced in. you saw indices to look at help here.de us through this is companies that have high tax bills and in the blue we have companies that typically benefit from share buybacks which might get a boost and he might see that repatriated. neither of those categories are stocks have been doing all that well since the middle of january. neither of those are what you might call trump trade have benefited in the month and a half or so. what has been doing well are the companies with big international businesses. interesting question to what this buildup was a out in

i'm anna edwards. manus: and i'm manus cranny. so you go away for a weekend ball euphoria -- donald trump didn't get his health care through the squabbling. the impact on markets is immediate. this is the dollar. the rise of the dollar on the accession of trump into the white house and his promised policies, and there, down, down, down. you seem the dollar touch a four-month low. the 200-day moving average could be breached. thisof america merrill say is still one of the most crowded trades out there even though 32% of their survey say the dollar is overvalued. buoydata isn't going to the dollar. manus: anna: interesting to see just how far the dollar has retreated, almost erasing the gains it has made. putting up the risk radar takes is a bit further into that dollar story. we've got dollar-yen in there for you. it is 110.40. will it go below 110? does that trigger some stop orders? we will keep an eye on how that trades. s&p futures, looks as if we need another day to factor in that , orat for the republicans disunity among the

i am anna edwards. manus: back from paris, the euro star is a wonderful thing.f you're are waiting for the ecb, they used -- the u.k. budget, what is happening to volatility? there's a couple of different things he can walk away from this, the 260-day and fight volatility. the lowest since 2015. all of the usual rules seem to be breaking down in regards of volatility. that's located get development in.et participants you don't need a stomach for risk. anna: talking of emerging markets, how some of those have been doing overnight. volumes are pretty thin despite the tension. the one of by .9%. yuan up by .9$ the aussie dollar and stocks in australia maintaining their game. scrappingtsche bank and additional easing from the australians. still probably against the again. -- yen. merkel referring to europe this that rhetoric has done nothing. how overvalued is the dollar? saw the euro moving with the french politics story and we will continue to get more details. iron or downplay -- iron or down by 1.7%. let's get the bloomberg first word news. president donald trum

i'm anna edwards. manus: and i am manus cranny. let's kick it off with some red hot headlines. anna: we have numbers coming through from deutsche telecoms. of course, to rise about 4%, so says the company this morning. they have given us the numbers for the fourth quarter. revenue at 19.5 billion euros. that is ahead of the estimate of 19.1 billion euros. giving us their numbers. missing estimates, the dividend coming in at 0.6 euros per share. that is one of the big stories around deutsche telekom at the moment. back in their home market, prices are under pressure because of competition from vodafone. better news out of the u.s. unit. we heard from t-mobile, with 1.2 million monthly wireless subscribers, more than any other wireless subscriber in the u .s. this is a bond based business. manus: a couple more red hot headlines. let's jump into standardbank's four year adjusted earnings per share. this is an african lender at 14.4 rand. the market had estimated 14 point. 82 last year they earned 22.2 billion rand. teh equity comes in 15.3%. dividends, if you are a m 675 from a up

this is "bloomberg daybreak" i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny. a little bit more than 24 hours in article 50 being triggered and you should prepare for backlash. that is what we are being told by various voices. you have never had so good. another prime minister, this is the brexit or mr. released off the slate this morning. this is the moment that we voted for, brexit -- brexit in the united kingdom. it dropped below zero. we've risen in the fourth quarter and we peaked out. this is with 24 hours to go until we trigger article 50. is the moment of bliss in the index over? anna: the closer to blissfully get, when you add those core variables that feed this index into here. we will see where this has with inflation on the rise. let's put the risk radar and show you where the various classes has been overnight. we put this unchanged dollar index in you to show you the contracts -- the contrast of what we saw yesterday. we got here at the s&p futures. that confirms we are expected to go a little bit higher. charles evans talking about two hikes and

i'm anna edwards. matt: and i'm matt miller. anna: let's talk about currency markets.o be watching capitol hill. we do see some yen weakening overnight. a slightly longer view, this is the first drop in the yen we've seen in nine days. i was drawn to the strength of the yen recently. a nice column on the bloomberg, the title of it is, "has anyone checked out they can recently?" clues asre looking for to where markets go, we miss the obvious. yen strength over the last eight days has been a feature. briefly,k up to 110 so can buy fewer yen for the dollar and that is going to be one of the interesting aspects of today's trade. we are going to get one of the best currency guests on the program today. i'm looking forward to that discussion with kit juckes. let's look at the asset classes a lot going on with currencies. do i put the euro in there, the was argued to me is sexier, so i included that. falling back below 1.25. if you look at the intraday chart, it is a rather abrupt move. take a look at the s&p futures. 0.25%.p just about it will be interesting to see how impor

i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny.f you are long the ftse perhaps you have never had it so good. that is the news since we voted for brexit this time last year. the ftse had hit record highs. oryou are a dollar investor euro investor, there is a fundamentally different story. the deliberations begin, 5246 is what gives you the defining line of when brexit was called. there is a numbers story. raising the prices here in the u.k.. bp and shell, big questions about their ability to sustain the dividend. the market is show it -- short and there is a crowded trade. impact on the ftse 100. anna: here is the risk radar. just to track where we are. sell from 126 to 124 earlier this week. it has been stable yesterday and there was not a great deal of market reaction to what we heard. perhaps the important part was the tenor and the tone of what we heard. most of the oil pricing was a big market moving story. gainsg on to wednesday's and today another point for heading back toward 50. oil stockpile increases came in below estima

anna: i am anna edwards. we have breaking news on the app or arrival to grab.argest rival to uber in southeast asia. tiny to raise over one and have billion euros. this being led -- backed by softbank. it wasn't clear if the money was coming from softbank or the yet disclosed softbank vision fund. softbank wasn't immediately available to comment. --s according to people with familiar with the matter. center is one and have billion dollars in a new funding round. matt: let's look at where futures are pointing. about an hour from the open of european trading. down.e euro stoxx ftse futures gaining, and cap futures down. very little movement today. the reason is we were expecting health care trump's overhaul yesterday. we didn't get it. congress pushed it forward to today. -- pushed back to today. traders have been essentially sitting on their hands. a lot of people see this as very important as an indicator to the power of donald trump to push through other legislation. more that is why we are fixated on capitol hill than we would normally be. but once we get thr

anna: i'm anna edwards. 7:00 here in london.news, getting numbers from c.r.h. >> continued growth in 2017. the profit beat analyst estimates. the full year sales come in a wee shade lighter. 27.1. the market was at 20.8 billion. they are to sell six businesses for 400 million euros. albert manifold is the c.e.o. there. the election is not going to change our strategy. they have about 1.5 billion euros to spend. he has 1.8 billion to spend. how much of trump is based into that price? the stock at 31.86 at the close of business last night. anna: when it opens up in about an hour, this is a stock that seems to move on that president trump commentary. let's get to i.t.v. the fuel year net advertising revenue is down 3% over at i.t., commercial broadcaster. 1.67 billion pounds they say. revenue coming in at 3.06 billion. a touch shy but not far off the 3.09 billion that was the estimate. on track to deliver organic revenue growth. they are trying to diverse from the revenue streams and that is the focus of the business. there are big

i'm anna edwards. program.r 7:00 here in london. look at where the futures open up on this european equities session. fed move seems to be running out of steam. flat to negative in the asian session by the end. here in europe, euro stoxx seem down a 10 -- 1/10 of a percent. asia pretty flat, but some emerging markets doing better. japan the weaker link there. volatility still retreating. quotes around it being scarily slow. checking in on currencies. a lot of movement in key currencies this week. 123.65, kristin forbes is leaving soon but raised questions about how far behind the rest might be. how scotland could abandon its current union with the u.k. on currency. euro, 107.79. the talking about a rate increase maybe on the ray -- on the way. way -- seems to be coming to her from the ecb. we put nymex on there for you. from words coming through gordon, something being watched by investors. they are recommending a purchase valueswhere, the deal issued share capital at 15.5 million pounds. not enormous but of interest, a story we hav

i'm anna edwards. manus: a little bit of breaking news coming across the bloomberg .or your revenues come in at .7.3 billion euros this is of course one of the leading delivery companies around the world. what they do in the world tells us how healthy the economy is. terms ofpost rises in web shopping. that's what is driving the numbers for the fourth order. growth in e-commerce and a great christmas. operating profit up 1.4 billion euros up from year ago. it matched more or less with the market was looking for of 1.1 billion euros. that's what the market was looking for. we will have a conversation with the georgia post ceo in about 30 minutes -- with the deutsche post ceo in about 30 minutes. let's talk about what's happening in the u.k. today. the house of lords vote yesterday, we watched the article 50 process as it looms large. the chancellor will deliver his budget at 12:30. is, do youquestion want to be long sterling going into the challenge from the house of lords? cable in the blue, but the net short position, how is the market positioning itself? there is th

anna edwards is in westminster and matt miller is in brussels. walk me through the process for the rest of the day. .> thanks very much jon in just under half an hour's she will transition into the set piece event that happens every wednesday in the house of commons. she will read that statement to the country, talking about what she has communicated in that letter into the eu president. that letter is being handed over by the uk's ambassador to the eu. he will hand that over in about 20 minutes time. around the same time she will address the country. she then will get a full release of the letter. there is lots of speculation in the u.k. as to how long the letter is, what tone will it might matter to those watching the markets. some suggesting in the fx market this could be something key in the short-term which could guide u.k. assets. how the tone will run for the next year and a half or two years, not sure what certainly that could be interesting to start the process. jon: the process begins today. how quickly will the eu 27 be willing to come

anna edwards speaking to the vice president of the european commission.ohndesigned to cryan new strategy into practice. they named two deputy ceo's as well. postbank feels very different from the strategy laid back 18 months or so ago. steve aaron has more from frankfurt. john of challenges for cryan. which is the biggest, do you think? >> he himself said in an interview with bloomberg with me this morning that the biggest challenge of keeping people motivated. the bank has been going through a lot of restructuring and they announced a new strategy 17 months ago, and this new one that came out basically over the weekend is a complete reversal on that and he needs to make there are 100 thousand people working for deutsche bank and convinced this is the right strategy and he's going to be the wright to implement that. guy: absolutely. -- the way to implement that. guy: absolutely. if you invest in deutsche bank, white do you think he's the right man for the job considering the fact that effectively, we have seen a very large chunk of time wasted? that is ab

again, speaking exclusively to bloomberg anna edwards. plenty more to come on bloomberg tv. discussing where do you make money next. that is the question. you are watching "daybreak asia" . ♪ .vonne: this is "daybreak asia" i am yvonne man in hong kong. betty: i am betty liu. mark matthey you joins us now from singapore. -- mark matthew joins us now from singapore. reportd begin with the of at least four multiple missiles being fired by north korea reminds us all of that instability that north korea & sin asia and and in the rest of the world. and in asia presents to the rest of the world. well, i can't answer that. it must be priced in and some way. about once a year, they send a missile vaguely in japan's , and south korea has historically been a much cheaper market than the rest of asia, don't knowblem is we if and when something were to drastically change in north ,orea how drastic it would be and i can't give you any additional commentary on that. betty: doesn't seem any different you than what we have seen in the past? >> the only thing notably different is that china

internally, anna edwards, the history of medicine division operates fundamentally as part of not apart from our home branch of the library as a whole. we are a special collection to which special collections around the world look for guidance but more importantly, we are a unit of several dozen professionals from a friday failed to work together with our colleagues to support the overarching mission of our institution to divide biomedical information to the public, old and new. so as part of our institution, my division participates directly in discussing, formulated, contribute to, and implementing a variety of policies and procedures related to multiple tasks that support our mission to the public. for example, our catalogs of unique and read materials are worked on collaboratively to meet and informed comment catalog standards to make our collections available to the public. more specifically, we have one cataloger that regularly offers historical insights of our controlled vocabulary thesaurus which is used by our institution for cataloging bibliographic descriptions and cataloging

as it gave theresa may the authority she sought to begin the brexit process. ,e are joined by anna edwards great deal at stake. >> thanks. i'm joined by the mayor of london outside westminster. great to have you on the program. reaction to the vote we saw yesterday? you must be disappointed? disappointed. am i except the vote of the british eu.ic to leave the wet of this is recognizing have got a million londoners from the eu, 3 million brits, and ieed some reassurance was hoping the government would give them the guarantee. i'm looking forward to them having this sooner rather than later. so what are your concerns about eu sentiments? what are you calling on the government to specifically do? make it happen soon? what is the requirement? mayor khan: the european union, which gives us two years. two things. you should now be given a car lenders.antee to those they have got children who are brits. our economy and our prosperity. they is a possibility won't do it in two years. if they do not do a deal with the eu in two years, fall off the cliff edge. early doors, you should agree with the e

that was the european commission vice president speaking to my colleague anna edwards. aing up, message, how north korea's missile launches are reverberating through the region. that and a market check of the hong kong and shanghai open. ♪ ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. 9:20 nine right here in hong kong p are we are counting you down to the start of the trading day here and shanghai, lots to play out when it comes to the position for equities, a mixed start to the day. premarket hong kong, let's look there, a slight, light move to the upside by .2% in the premarket auction. china, theing at communist party meeting taking place there. li keqiang walking a knife edge there. geopolitics not playing out when