anna wong wrote the report on that forecast in me from d.c., thank you for joining us.n we think about the direction of travel, how much risk is baked into the prediction this may be the end? what would cause that to change? anna: i think one of the things we are looking for is to see today at powell's press conference, how much has he taken into account the softening and labor market? we have seen payroll data surprised for the first time in over a year to the downside, the fed staff has a way of parsing the adp number to extract the real signal underlying the labor market. in the minutes, we saw that fed officials are considering the possibility that the labor market is softer than the nonfarm payroll looks. fed officials will have the survey in hand as they consider policy this week, and i think that may show credit conditions are indeed tightening more as we head into the second half of this year. both reasons let us to think that by the time september rolls around in the fed can write down a new projection, that might cause them to indicate today's hike is the last