i want to explore the topic with bloomberg's annmarie hordern.nnmarie: it will be a show down with the by demonstration's aides saying they do not want putin to attend the g20. if he shows up, volodymyr zelenskyy should be attending. there is a big question mark whether or not volodymyr zelenskyy would attend in person given there is a war waged by russia or if you would virtually attend. it will be incredibly difficult because remember, when russia invaded ukraine, they wanted the united states -- western countries wanted the g20 to make a pariah out of russia. countries like indonesia said no. you will see an incredible amount of debate here, even about who should attend. a big question mark is if anyone will sit down with putin besides the like of indonesia's leader or china's leader. jon: it puts the spotlight -- we will hear more stories about the desire to be a mediator. annmarie: he said in the interview with bloomberg editor-in-chief that indonesia wants to be friends with everyone. they are in a spot where they do not want to shun russia

right now, annmarie hordern joins us.aker pelosi after tokyo will fly back, and perhaps will have to do a fly around kansas. extraordinary election results last night. and what it is about is what put aydin in office, which is turnout -- put biden in office, which is turnout. all of a sudden, there will be lots of stories on turnout. brief us on how important turnout is for both parties. annmarie: it was huge last night for kansas. when you look across the primary map, and it was not any individual candidate that stole the show, it was this referendum in kansas about whether or not there should be amendments to the constitution, which would give the lawmakers in that state the ability to either restrict or ban abortion. overwhelmingly, individuals in kansas came out and said no. this is a state that the former president trump led by 15 points, so, as you say, there will be a lot of momentum for the democrats to say, abortion is a live issue for midterm elections on the 2024 resident election. tom: what will people turnout

bloomberg's annmarie hordern, thank you very much indeed. want to pick up on that story and talk more about it and we also need to reference the chinese data. overnight more data. china's factory activity unexpectedly contracting in july. sales continue to shrink. it highlights the fragility of the economy. the housing market front and center. joining as is the ubs investment bank senior strategist. i want to start with nancy pelosi. i want to talk about the economics that could surround this. increasingly it looks like the united states and china are heading away from each other. is that inflationary? and is that something we now need to factor in that ultimately we are going to see a fragmentation, we are going to see deglobalization, we are going to think about this as structural therefore permanently higher inflation? >> there is a near-term answer and a long-term answer. in the near term it is certainly inflationary, but not for reasons people believe. people believe is inflationary because china is shut. actually china is very good at

annmarie: two reasons. one in alaska, there is a logistical reason.y have a new format where individuals can get through because in the general election you could have a number of people run and you rank the individuals. say the first did not get it. your vote would still count for the second or third. you have senator murkowski, also republican who voted to impeach president trump. she has drawn the ear of the former president but she was able to make it through. there is also the sense that like liz cheney, she also has family ties and political ties to alaska. but his rebuke on representative cheney was particular. given the fact that not only did she vote for the impeachment but she was the top republican and the star of the select committee investigating the january 6 insurrection. sonali: i am wondering, what other races are you watching? you are looking at the polling data. marco rubio in florida and you wonder what is going on. where our big changes happening? annmarie: according to the latest data, he is potentially behind. val demings has a

annmarie: we are ready gotten white house reaction.sident's national security advisor jake sullivan , was talking on nbc about how this is a normal visit. there have been speakers of the house in the past, newt gingrich in the late '90s, members of congress in the last 12 months, going over and visiting taiwan and he says this is quite normal, and that if there was to be an escalation, it would be on china's watch. but of course, the rhetoric leading up to this moment has been harsh and it has been rigorous and it has been nonstop from china's foreign ministry. they will not stand idly by with speaker pelosi coming. they view her as the third ranking highest u.s. official in the united states, even though admiral kirby has made clear do you xi jinping that these two leaders spoke last week. congress is an independent entity, the foreign ministry of china believes that everyone in the united states should be abiding by the policy, the one china policy, and they view this as an act of aggression. guy: there are those, there are many who

annmarie: the white house cannot.he white house says this is the speaker's prerogative, or travel plans. but obviously she's going to be in touch with the military, and they are going to do everything they can when there's high-level united states officials traveling around the world. one thing that is interesting over the past year or so, there have been more incursions into taiwanese defense space. there has been more intercepts. "the ft" had an interview with general milley talking about this. the chinese military is now saying that the taiwanese strait is not international waters. lisa: there have been reports about how much the chinese military have been built up over the past decade, but it is unclear that taiwan, even if aided by the u.s., could win, if china were to invade. how much does this way on taiwan, if they even want speaker pelosi to come? annmarie: it would be a huge statement what many in taiwan want, which is independence. but you bring up a point, i don't think there's many people who want to see

annmarie hordern joins us.aul keenan in his article on congresswoman cheney tries to get out to 2024 where she has a political presence. explained to meet where her presence is in the present republican party. annmarie: she is ostracized. she is a pariah of the republican party even though she had voted on a number of issues alongside republicans, whether it was against the inflation reduction act or abortion, these issue she continues to have a conservative record, but she has led the charge as the top republican on the select committee investigating january 6. she is a pariah within the party. she is a pariah in wyoming. it does look like the polls are pointing to the trump backed candidate that will take the seat she has held. the zeitgeist or the chatter in washington is potentially she could launch a bit for 2024. tom: there should become a democrat? annmarie: no. she is conservative. tom: there are no democrats in wyoming. there are three of them and grizzly bears. annmarie: even if she was to do that, wh

annmarie: nothing has changed so far.hat we do know is that taking away from that call xi jinping had with president biden, that they set up a personal meeting. we should note that during that call, there was already a lot of talk and speculation and most everyone assumed speaker pelosi was going to make this trip to taiwan. xi jinping was pretty much well aware that the speaker of the house would be going to taiwan when he directed his team to set up an in-person meeting. i believe they are still doing that, and that will likely come in november because the president will be in asia. that would potentially be the first time the two meet with biden as president. tom: there was respectful silence yesterday, to be given dangers or worries of speaker pelosi's safety. as she leaves taiwan, outcomes the knives and criticism. give us the distinction that this was not bipartisan. the post has a fabulous photograph of speaker pelosi 30, 40 years ago on china. what is the significance that republicans weren't invited? annmarie: re

annmarie: that is what the doj things. they say if you're going to release it and there will be a ton of redaction's, you might not even be able to see the roadmap. so it is possible and what is the point of doing it? also the concern is the affidavit, how much hard is it to get people to talk to you regarding any ongoing investigation? taylor: what do we hear about the other ongoing investigations, not only about the search warrant but we talked about the former cfo of the trump organization and the 15 charges as well. annmarie: right. he is taking the guilty plea. he made a deal. in that, he is going to have to testify. what we have learned is that he has not testified against trump himself, it is about the trump organization, but he will testify that could potentially mean the former president could be in hot water. he will also pay back $2 million in taxes. this has been a long-running investigation about the trump organization and whether or not they were -- instead of giving individuals income to avoid income tax, th

annmarie ndc policy is complex. will hear the republican talking points today and the talking points from the administration. i know you like me, the more time you spend looking at this, the more complex you realize things are. lisa: why now? especially if we are worried about inflation, why come out with a new relief program, especially when the labor force participation rate for people has fallen? even though people are not getting back into the labor market, you wonder why now. it seems this is something that could be addressed in many ways. the timing, especially going on a platform of trying to reduce inflation, creates a lot of questions. jon: tom touched on a good point, college in america is a problem. you are subsidizing colleges here. tom: i was talking about this the other day and the bottom line is, if i could bring this up on air, i will, -- jon: he is upset. a lot of people are upset. tom: i don't want to be too frank, it is a total freak and scam. -- freaking scam. jon: with tom keene, lisa abramowicz

annmarie: it depends on who is going out and voting. other high-profile topic in the midterm elections, if you are a young student, which, you know, is to give you some color, here at the white house at least once a week i talk to young students, professionals who are coming out to say, please fulfill that campaign promise of forgiving student debt. they usually bring also a lot of instruments. if you are one of those individuals you might be annoyed that it doesn't go far enough, but you at least are going to welcome today's decision. you obviously likely would vote alongside the democratic line, but for those very concern depend inflation, or for those who do not make the cap -- remember, it is $10,000 for borrowers, but only if you are under $125,000. if you do not make that cap you might feel shortchanged. that is how this is going to play in the midterm elections. republicans will likely lose any rhetoric that this could enhance inflation against the democrats on november 8. guy: we will look forward to your coverage later on today

annmarie: silence.dministration has been silent and they say they do not want to get involved. they are not briefed on this and they are leaving it up to what they say is the independent body of the fbi. we should note the head of the fbi was appointed by former president trump and the biden administration does not want to touch this. jonathan: a special story in business week this week. we look forward to catching up down d.c.. we want to talk about the seasonal changes. welcome to bloomberg surveillance from 6:00 to 9:00 eastern time. tom: i think we need to do this. the number number -- november 2 fed show, 18 years, it gets lucky here. 18,000 trees on a fiery glow. we will have mayor's in to talk about the effect on the great city. @5 on-time no -- autumnal-- jonathan: i will -- i used to live in the same building as you . the view is greatéy yeah. jonathan: you are calling it autumnal. tom: autumnal. jonathan: all right. the euro-dollar, at the executive board this morning. tom: what are they waiti

annmarie: mehmet oz is very much down in the polls.d i know annmarie has her asparagus with sparkling water. lisa: i thought he was looking for tequila? jonathan: lisa skipped last week based on the substance of our political conversations. lisa: i did research on the cart or basket debate. i wonder why we are hearing about mim and oz and talking about ascot versus carts, we are not talking about president biden campaigning for any democrats. we are not talking about kamala harris at all. how unusual is it to not be invited to all of these campaign trips? annmarie: open can -- "the washington post" did a poll about this. do you want the president to show up and campaign for you are not? i believe the words they used were "unenthusiastic," unenthusiastic responses. if he shows up, we would love to give a mentor. this is what many candidates are worried about, that this will be a mandate on the biden presidency. you already see a number of ads coming out in tight races with republicans really going after the administration on things like

let's go to washington correspondent annmarie hordern, outside the white house for us.have gotten reaction from the chinese side, the foreign ministry talking about the one china policy, how it risks further tensing relations between the u.s. and china. we are getting action on the west side, and not from the white house, but from republican senators. annmarie: republican senators led by senator sullivan, senator mitch mcconnell signing onto the press release, about two dozen republican senators saying they support speaker pelosi, they support her visit to taiwan . they are agreeing with the fact that they abide by the one china policy. they are happy to see the speaker -- we heard this from republicans, leading up to this trip, will she go, will she not go -- we heard from them saying they want to go and kevin mccarthy said if he is a speaker of the house next year, he would love to lead a bipartisan delegation to taiwan. she has that support from both sides of the aisle. we heard from speaker pelosi. she is tweeting live from taiwan , saying she wants to support democ

annmarie: it's mixed. taiwan has two parties.t's in power is leaning towards the rhetoric of independence. the number of people in taiwan that really want to keep the status quo, they understand they are tiny compared to china and china is their biggest trading partner and they don't want to see a war and what they would like to see is status quo. our reporter put it well a few weeks ago with speaker pelosi on the trip saying that the repercussions will not come to the united states, they will be faced by the people of taiwan. jonathan: just to build on that, this is not new but what is new is how china is responding, responding to the visits with much more aggression. lisa: it's surprising that we are not hearing more rhetoric about how concerning that is. how many articles have you read where china doesn't want a war, neither does the u.s.. there is still the talk of a summit. how do you place that over taiwan and the escalating military drills? jonathan: it's a complex piece. the xi jinping reach exceeding grasp. tom: he's bee

annmarie: we don't, but if she was to go, she would be accompanied on a u.s.ilitary air force on her way there. we did hear from admiral kirby today, i will bring you a little bit about what he said. he said there is nothing speaking about the visit and it is quite frankly concerning that the chinese might use it as some sort of pretext to actually increase the tensions. he then went on to talk about the fact that right before this trip, a week before this trip was even in the vernacular of the media, that the chinese have been increasing tensions on the taiwanese strait. they've also been saying it is no longer international borders. so there has been a lot of tit for tat about these. the other factor is of course that the biden administration as well as jicha and paying -- xi xinping have been trying to organize and in-person meeting which would complicate that. guy: nevertheless, domestic politics probably top of mind providing right now. if pelosi does go, what does that do provide an in the midterms? annmarie: i think the democrats would just use it as a

lisa: annmarie was talking about this, how opec-plus members have not been able to meet those figures. they have not been able to produce as much as they say they will. how much of it is an issue that we are not getting the oil out of the ground? we cannot do it faster? then you have this conundrum of demand coming down at the same time that you have supplies being constrained. prices remain elevated even in the face of some slowdown in activity. jonathan: i don't think this is as simple as what is happening with russia and europe. experts telling us that they pretend there is a problem with the turbine but ultimately it is a political decision. for the kingdom, when you look at oil markets, they are leaning toward the subject of these is suggesting. they don't have the spare capacity that people hope is the re. tom: maybe we can all get in the studio for a fist bump. what isaac said about inflation falls right into the discussion, we are looking for a crude elevation. inflation is the topic. jonathan: the good news about inflation cpi, energy has come down so much. i get that. we com

annmarie hordern joining us now. talk to me about why this is happening.s comes hot on the heels of nancy pelosi's trip. amory: a lot of these trips are planned well in advance and this one is getting a lot of press because it is on the heels of speaker pelosi's trip and what we saw out of that was this unprecedented action from beijing in terms of these live fire drills. also likely what was ballistic missiles flying over the island with japan saying they landed in their economic exclusion zone off the fact that china pulled the plug on climate and defense talks with the united states. less than two weeks later, you have yet another member of congress, complete lee different ranking, but still number the -- another member of congress making their way to taiwan. over the course of the biden administration, there have been more than 30 lawmakers visiting. the reason there is spotlight now is because it was the speaker of the house. i think it is also something to say that xi jinping has a very important few months ahead. they have this major congress where