annmarie: 1.2 trillion is tied up.is not our problem, it is there's -- you hear that on repeat. lisa: jay powell really address this. they are working with them. how are they working with them? are they overseeing? how do you adjust? jonathan: many would say it was not oversight. annmarie: they are coming in and saying, be asked them to get water down. jonathan: the regional banks pulling back on lending and tightening standards. the fed has to stay on hold for longer. asking a question after the report came out. the more it becomes delayed, the harder it becomes to land safely. no recession in the next year. lisa: that is still the underlying question. shadow bankers can come to the equation and think about some of the auto loans and others. it will not be a complete removal of credit altogether. jonathan: all of that in a whole lot more income and the equity market pulling back just a touch. yields are a lot higher on the 10 year. from new york city this morning, good morning. ♪ chances of a plane crash -- 1 in 11 mi

annmarie: this is the division. south carolina showed even though trump dominated, how difficult the division will be for him. jonathan: look out for that conversation on the story. i want to turn to the price action, futures on the s&p 500, almost totally changed -- unchanged. for 24.81 -- 4.2481. the x y negative for five consecutive sessions. lisa: kit jukes is so entranced by this particular pair that his headline for his paper was the dollar stopped rallying or moving at all and was talking about how we know the narrative on all sides. kit jukes was channeling my sense of stasis. we know the story. jonathan: i'm not trying to sell it as an entertaining story. i'll say this. international got interesting last week. nine days of gains in chinese equities. i think tpw's philosophy was when everything is not investable, you should take a look. lisa: tradable is a nice way of saying maybe people are holding out hope that this time stimulus be cutting great you heard from the chinese government some promises of the d

you know what i'm talking about, annmarie? annmarie: i always had a chair.ock in that. lisa: of course, we also get nvidia earnings. the raid on the u.s. economy is ahead of ppi -- the read on the u.s. economy is ahead of ppi with almost 34 minutes to go. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey, brent! if you had to choose, would you watch paint dry or compare benefits plans? compare benefits. gusto makes it easier to find the right plan for my team. i think i'm going to need new glasses. no problem. you're covered. choose benefits without the mess. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. how am i going to find a docto

lisa: i am confused annmarie: annmarie: -- i'm confused on espn. have the streaming service different from espn plus that they currently have on top of a bundle with fox and warner. which one should they be throwing all of their eggs into? geetha: this has been a head scratcher. we don't know if the espn standalone will cannibalize the super app or how it will work. ultimately, what disney is looking to do is make aggregation at the end of the day the holy grail. disney knows that bundling is really important. if you look at their streaming bundle, this is the most popular bundle in the marketplace. 40% to 50% of all of their subscribers take the bundle so they know that it works. they want to offer different flavors. so, you have the super app with content from different providers, you have the espn plus app for the hard-core fan who wants to get into betting, more into the interactive features. i think at the end of the day you have the base bundle and it will be able to offer all of these different flavors with up selling possibilities. jonathan

annmarie: the market thinks you are.r the sectors of the economy that helps russia earn revenue, that includes commodities. we know that includes oil. what we have done we have done in a targeted way, it has accomplished two goals. one is making it harder for russia to earn revenue while also taking steps to ensure we protect the rest of the global economy on the repercussions of their actions. you mentioned the price cap where russia today is earning less revenue. the russian deputy prime ministers just a few weeks ago complained about the impact that russian price cap is having on them. ultimately our goal is to make that impact greater over time by taking these actions while also stabilizing markets, making sure global prices do not rise. annmarie: alexander novak also talking about they are getting entrance into india. they are still making a ton of money. my point is, until the u.s. is willing to take on the repercussions on what it would mean for their economies, should we just expect this war to continue? wally: y

annmarie: absolutely.why you have a number of foreign policy hawks very concerned given the fact that russia is waging a war in ukraine on nato's doorstep. trump said he was in this meeting, he was more emphatic about over the weekend, he said if russia were to do that, if you were to lincoln underspending, he would quote tell russia to do whatever they want, to those meeting -- to those not meeting those obligations. nikki haley, donald trump over the weekend, was very rude about her husband, saying where is he? biden tweeted, major haley is serving his country. a lot of foreign policy issues in play right now. jonathan: republican senators asked about this over the weekend. rubio says he does not talking normal politician. the thing you've heard a million times. lisa: can you dismiss this as simply rhetoric that is trying to be fiery? it really speaks to this question that we see in congress. forget what is happening in november. given the fact that trump kind of is pulling the strings behind some of the

annmarie: also different culturally. and they have better trained infrastructure. they have a smaller geographical distance to cover. the united states is a driving community and that is what the u.s. does. here u.s. officials talk and they are concerned about trucks and driving because to even get the groceries at his farm to truck to table and everything involves a car. jonathan: down 8% in early trading. a border deal near a collapse. >> the only way to get things done is to work in a bipartisan way. the american people are smart and they will know exactly who to blame if this bill does not even get a hearing in the united states house of representatives. jonathan: we will get into that next. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what do you think, fever monster? what about zocdoc? zocdoc? dr. castell has a great bedside manner. so many options. but dr. xichun will take your sketchy insurance. xi-chun! xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! thanks, bro! you've got more op

annmarie: he could use an executive order.o you think they will come out with some sort of executive order. >> i don't know how they don't. one opportunity, the politics of an executive order are quite good. it doesn't necessarily do much to change what's actually happening on the ground. he's knocking to do the types of things trump did. it allows them to draw attention to what he did in that clip which is point out republicans had a chance to get a border deal and turned it down because of politics. he's trying to flip the narrative by taking action whether or not it is effective. that's something that will help politically. annmarie: polling shows responded still think biden is responsible for the border but more people are stunning to lay blame on republicans in congress and the trump administration. do you think biden has between now and november to close that gap and put more blame on republicans for tanking that border deal? >> i think those are inside baseball arguments and they don't really play into voters that much.

annmarie: i think the bigger winner was tesla.ctual dvds, his biggest challenge will be china. whether it is gn in michigan or mercedes, they are talking about the fact that the demand is not there. all those individuals working on that car? a lot of them were ai tech actions. jonathan: that card not have the margins that they wanted. this is not going to be based on to be that high-margin lecturing business that apple thought they could be part of a few years ago. if you are not ferrari, you will have a difficulty and a problem. this is where i am going. if the market is going to descend in a quasi-state-sponsored champion, and who that is in the u.s. has yet to be decided, but it is going to come up. china is going to try to compete. will they be allowed to compete? lisa: it is not fun to be a carmaker right now. we are looking at a situation where he wants to call himself a tech company as well because it is hard to make cars. jonathan: equities are negative by 4%. bond market yields are lower. talked a lot about dollar strengt

annmarie: it wasn't just them.s as a talking about potential actual losses tied to commercial real estate. you can see office space being left for dead because people don't have the money or will to invest and it is losing value added dramatic pace. how do you say that has been priced in? >> we know it is coming down the pike over the day that sort of brings comfort to the banks, and when they talk about the risks involved with commercial real estate and office area, they have underwritten pretty conservatively. around 50%, 60%. on top of that, built reserves the past few quarters ahead of the potential losses coming. lisa: people were looking for the boogie man and saying it will be in commercial real estate and still missed some of these. i think that is getting people nervous. even with what you say, we still missed some of this. how do we reconcile that? >> this is just an example of what is going to happen in 2024, 2025, 2026. there will be lumpiness and charge-offs. because these losses are a bit larger, they

annmarie: the u.s.ays is small in nature, do you agree with that assessment? pres ali: we believe any threat on our borders has to be taken seriously. we are taking it very seriously. we are working with venezuela to ensure that this does not escalate because our primary focus is to ensure that the region remain stable. we want to ensure that we do everything to promote peace within the region. in our assessment, there is a lot of assessment, it is a threat that we are taking seriously and are ensuring to secure the territorial space of guyana. lisa: how much urgency do you feel to monetize the oil and gas reserves in guyana before there is some kind of transition away from fossil fuels? pres ali: we have to look at transition two. we have 36% of the world's energy coming from coal. we have people living in energy poverty. the technology on transitional energy sources is not there to give us -- developing countries are having difficulties. the supply chain of the technology required for transition is no

annmarie: an alternative if it cannot be him.nd hoping we don't do a repeat of 2020, and it is. jonathan: without a doubt. which is why i think they still entertain this story so much. big things can happen, but, ultimately, this is it. and the reason people keep entertaining someone who was 30 points behind in the race when in any other race they would not, it is what you are describing, the dissatisfaction who simply -- from people who simply do not want it to be these two facing off again. lisa: we talked economists and analysts every day, and they would like to talk about policy and understand what drives better economic conditions and quality of life. that conversation is nowhere in washington, d.c. it is a lot of messaging and spin, but not trying to get to the bottom of it, and people are frustrated. jonathan: politics or monetary policy? lisa: politics. jonathan: let's get to monetary policy, fed minutes due at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon, with investors looking for insight into their confidence in disinflation before they c

annmarie: this is politics, not policy. it was an absolute embarrassment for speaker johnson to put something on the floor that he promised his face he would do and then not have them vote at the end of the day to shored up. to get this across the finish line, we cannot just imagine how tight these numbers are. steve scalise is undergoing treatment for cancer, blood cancer. he came back to congress to take the vote. if tom suozzi was there, that vote never would have gone through. that is how tight the margins are, and that is what it is hard to get anything done, especially closer to a bipartisan way. jonathan: let's finish on a lighter note for jeff bezos, the amazon founder and chairman selling $4 billion worth of the company stock in four days, and he has not sold shares since 2021. he still has a significant stake in the company, holding 9.3% of outstanding shares, and amazon stock is up 11% so far this year. he went through the numbers, let's hear them again, the tax implications of doing this now versus before. annma

annmarie: how much can the u.s.ontinued to grow when you wake up and japan is in recession, the u.k. is in recession? >> th that we all thought coming out of the pandemic there would be this element of synchronization and if nothing else, china really interrupted that calculus by staying in covid zero for too long and that is part of the story. the thing about the u.s. economy is it is much more insulated and self-contained than the rest of the world on the order of 70-75%. it can go on until it doesn't and frankly, the most important economic number is the every thursday at 8:30 jobless claims number. that is on the ground real-time data the health of the economy we have inserted back yet at all. lisa: so we are two hours and 20 minutes away from the most important indicator of the week of all indicators that we might potentially get. what is the trade ability of this number and retail sales which is another rate on the health of the u.s. can tumor -- consumer? >> the clear implication is don't trade the numbers. b

annmarie: dearly want to talk about her again? jonathan: i want to talk about jim nance of cbssports. absolute legend. lisa: you're talking golf? you're basically saying let's shift gears from the super bowl to talk about golf. jonathan: let's not. up next, president biden pushing for a pause in guys a -- a pause in gaza. pres. biden: the united states is working on a hostage deal between israel and hamas which would bring sustained calm for at least six weeks. jonathan: that is coming up next. live from new york city. this is bloomberg. ♪ how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what do you think, fever monster? what about zocdoc? zocdoc? dr. castell has a great bedside manner. so many options. but dr. xichun will take your sketchy insurance. xi-chun! xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! thanks, bro! you've got more options than you know. book now. jonathan: cpi data later this morning. equity futures a little bit softer. negative one third of 1%. down a single basis point. under surveillance, president biden pushing for a p

annmarie: you're in munich now.are your european counterparts telling you about whether they would sign up for this? sen. cardin: we are having conversations here at the security conference. that is one of the areas i have been talking to the europeans about. i think we all agree that russian needs to be held accountable. legislation is very clear. if russia joins an international effort to compensate ukraine for the damage that is done that is one thing, if they don't to the -- if they don't we need to look for every avenue we can to help the ukrainian people, including seizing russian assets. sonali: do you think the death of navalny is going to put fresh pressure on the house of representatives to pass the foreign aid bill you and some of your colleagues said yes to? sen. cardin: the house of representatives must pass this bill. the aide to ukraine is desperate. we passed it by an overwhelming bipartisan margin in the u.s. senate. we know the votes are in the house to pass ukraine a. now it is up to the speaker t

annmarie: i don't know anything about the teams, so no.at during the commercial break if you want for like, one dollar. >> commercial real estate, i believe that it is manageable, though there may be some institutions that are quite stressed by this problem. jonathan: that conversation is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: what did you say? jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. yields are higher by two or three basis points on the 10 year, 4.12 88. treasury secretary janet yellen on capitol hill. >> i do have a concern about commercial real estate. i believe that it is manageable, although there may be some institutions that are quite stressed by this problem. jonathan: the latest, janet yellen voicing concern over losses in commercial real estate stopping short of commenting on a single institution. moody's cuts new york community bank to junk, shares hit their lowest level since 1997. the u.s. regional bank analyst from bloomberg intelligence joins us now. is this the worst of it or is there more to come? >> prob

annmarie: they do not always win elections. and cutting entitlements? no one. jon: that is why i have an issue of politicians. equities on the s&p firmer by 1.2%. in the bond market, yields look like this. coming up on the program, edward jones official. henrietta on bipartisan efforts to stop the capital one discover deal. and you gene seroka on global train disruption. that is a must watch. global stocks moving higher on the back of nvidia's earnings. edward jones see more room to run. we don't see bubble behavior in this ai cohort because the earnings and growth opportunities seem real in this backdrop of pending rate cuts, inflation potentially moderating, we believe are remaining fully invested is a sound strategy for the year ahead. mona is with us now. i want to go to the quote we have been referencing from zero hedge. the numbers are tremendous but let's talk about the price action. they are pointing out clearly and we can see it in the numbers that there was only a $2 billion difference between the revenue forecast and

annmarie: are the proposals that different?the deficit and some of the different policies that would come down the pike. how different is it? bruce: the funny thing is up don't hear that much about substance and policy. when you see these guys talking, they're kind of throwing mud at each other, but they're not really telling us what they're going to do for the country and what the policies will affect. jonathan: we get another trump presidency, can we talk about the regulatory proposals on the table right now? what do you think of them? do you think they appropriately confront the risk that we went through last spring? what do you think? bruce: i would say historically any time there's an incident or there's some turmoil, the regulators come with a tool kit and usually the pendulum will swing too far, and then it needs to be dialed back. and i think we're going through that process. the knee-jerk playbook is banks need more capital, ok, well, how are you going to go about that and what are the consequences? is it going to redu

annmarie: nate silver nails it.ed to shut it down because it several months away from being ready for prime time. why did they release something that was not ready. he put this question in is who is impacted society more elong tweeting -- tweeting meat or hitler's. gemini said it's not possible to say definitively to your point but he said why are they moving ahead with something that was not ready. >> when it was tested in house where they satisfied with the answers they were getting. >> it goes to the point where they are banking on generative ai changing the world and increasing productivity before we understand how rigorous the testing has been. this goes to the concern that even people in the industry are saying can we put some guardrails on it. >> we are talking about a company with a monopoly business. ultimately in the equity business they have dominated. i have no idea if this product will be good in the future. maybe it will be. but the fact of the matter is we are talking about alphabet being behind in so

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. >> live from new york city this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. was the market open yesterday? the trading range was so tight. it closed on wednesday within five points of 5k and on thursday within three. >> it was pushed over there begrudgingly by a market that does not want to have any direction because why would you right now? people are worried about momentum given the fact that we have seen this incredible rally and yet, high valuations and questions about rate cuts and how many could happen and concerns about profitability and whether expectations are too high are plaguing the market. jonathan: look at the bond market. yields high up on the week. two year, 10 year. we can talk about the auctions and the data, it was monday. it was a solid -- it was solid. 8:30 eastern time, we will be talking about inflation revisions. they were important last time around and are more important now. the quo