annmarie: to any of trump's picks not get through? terry: yes. annmarie: who?nk -- i don't have one that is absolutely doesn't make it, but i think pete hegseth has a very tough time, i think bob kennedy has a very tough time. annmarie: especially for someone like pete hegseth, his hearing is just in a few hours. why go through with it if they don't think they have the votes? terry: they don't know whether they do or not so it is a little bit of a dice roll. the thing with pete hegseth, this will begin interesting test of the seriousness of trump defense policy. you put somebody in there who is a change agent more than anything else, that is fine, but the concern that comes from the senate fundamentally is well, change agents can't run bureaucracies, can't run the department, can't direct things in a particular way efficiently and effectively. so that is a lot of the problem with hegseth frankly, and what we are going to see with him really is a commitment to trump defense policy, exactly what that is, frankly. jonathan: appreciate your time. there are going to

annmarie: anything that is u.s.ical policies or because the companies no longer trust the chinese technology? dan: it has taken a while for europe to get there. the u.s. started got -- started going down that path years ago when we had president trump's first term. europe is catching up to that and that should help u.s. tech companies where we might not have the lowest-cost product but hopefully it is a little more secure and alignment. lisa: we have a lot to talk -- jonathan: we have a lot to talk about in 2025. we have a lot to talk about a little bit later as well. bloomberg's ed ludlow setting down with jensen huang live. lisa: how many leather jackets do you think he has? jonathan: maybe it is crocodile leather on it and not was glistening in the lights. if you notice that? lisa: i think these are the important questions. you know, i think it sort of is trendsetting. this is what mark zuckerberg is doing with his necklace and t-shirt. jonathan: you can wear whatever you want when the stock is up 300%. you can g

annmarie: sanctions.russian crude, going after two of the larger producers. it is certainly impacting. one analyst put it at potentially 800,000 barrels impacted from this. critics are saying why is the biden administration doing this now? they are heading toward the exit. you have to think they are doing it now because gas prices for the domestic consumer are no longer there problem. jonathan: that is pretty shocking stuff. annmarie: given the fact that the incoming trump administration, if they were to do a deal with putin, beaumont sanctions relief, part of any deal that he does with ukraine. to get these sanctions lifted, you cannot just go to the treasury department. one analyst was saying, they have to go to congress to get congressional votes to lift these sanctions. what will happen when those hawks in congress say i want to keep russian crude off the market? jonathan: this feeds into the fears that some have. it is not jepson job numbers. inflation has picked up. you can say that is a ridiculous

annmarie: they want to get this big bill out of the gate.here's been lots on this program between republicans in the house and senate, how they would go about enacting trump's agenda. for they do one immigration bill out of the gate, or are they going to do adjacent smith, one massive reconciliation bill? president-elect trump made it very clear, one powerful bill, immigration, energy and expanding tax cuts. he made a point to talk about no tax on tips. lisa: ultimately from a market perspective there is a real anxiety right now about how much momentum they have to actually do cost-cutting to offset some of the deficit expansion that a lot of people at this point are just penciling in? jonathan: morgan stanley's mike wilson saying rate of the most important variable to watch. the correlation equity returns, the bond yields decisively negative. jp morgan last talking about this, the rates have decisively moved into what he believes is the danger zone. lisa: there is an alternative. if you take a look at some of the areas that people say have

down close annmarie: annmarie: to 14 basis points.r, but the rally is taking on a life of its own. these numbers are so important. it is not just the u.k., it is also japan, it is a boj that seems like it wants to hike but in order to do that, it needs to have inflation. at least these kinds of figures coming in, a fed that isn't hiking rates. the yen up more than 1%. so many different international markets were waiting on these numbers, and they will have big consequences for central banks. jonathan: david kelly is with us around the table, good to see you. softer inflation prints in the months ahead? >> i think it is important to recognize that the year-over-year, two point nine, that is going to look a lot better by april because the first four months of last year we saw pretty strong inflation. that makes it very easy to get down to the low twos by april and overall, this is not inflation for the economy. the economy was just choking along, steady growth, a little over 2% growth, and inflation gradually coming down. the economy it

annmarie: can the u.s. act that way?key question. one of the three arrows is this notion of bringing back the budget deficit, the 3% of g.d.p. what does that entail? that entails cutting the deficit by over $1 trillion per year over the next decade. that's a massive reduction in government spending. this could be done if we think about entitlement programs. if we think about tax reform. i don't think that's necessarily where we are going. we are talking about potentially massive spending cuts. let's not forget if you cut spending you cut economic activity. you have to be consistent in your messaging in terms of ensuring that reduction in the budget deficit while sustaining economic growth. lisa: how concerned are you if there is a doge. fication and you get job cuts that cause people to quit in a massive way. some of the labor pictures people are looking at considering how much government hiring accounted for some of the recent job gains. greg: two points. you are right. government spending has -- government hiring has b

i am annmarie hordern.where the 39th president will be honored by president biden along with former u.s. presidents and other dignitaries. after the service president carter will be flown back to georgia for a private service. a motorcade will take the former president and his family on a final journey through his hometown in georgia. he will be next to his wife, the former first lady, rosalynn carter. it is very symbolic of who jimmy carter was as a person, how he came to washington and how he will be remembered. >> it is

annmarie: except for potentially one.iting for commerce department to come out -- this was a bloomberg scoop but i know you've have been writing about it for months -- about ai chips from nvidia. all roads lead to china when it comes to making this export controls tougher, correct? >> as early as today, between now and january 20, there will be a final export control rule that comes out from the biden administration. this will be focused on the number of ai chips that are going to countries that we have concerns about. we have blocked almost everything going to china or to russia. we will allow everything to continue to go to our closest allies. but there will be a tier 2 country list where we will put caps on how much can the middle east get, how much can south east asia received. generally speaking, i would've expected this to be bipartisan but you have ted cruz queried -- tweeting out last night strong opposition, nvidia with strong opposition. annmarie: going to allies or the timing? >> they will restricted going into

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: i from new york city this morning, good morning. bloomberg surveillance starts right now. coming into 2025 following the best back yearly gains since the late 1990's. equity futures bouncing back from four days of losses. the s&p we are higher .6%. on the nasdaq we are up .8%. your forecast shaping up as follows. the average, about 6600. the highest is 7100. the low is 6000. lisa: this is not exactly a terrible year of losses after the biggest gains in the s&p 500 going back to the late 1990's. the real question is where the leadership will come from. we have seen a narrowing in breath. this past year was supposed to be the year big tech lost its dominance to the rest of the equal weight. that has not happened. can big tech continue to power the rally we have seen? jonathan: postelection we all had the calls. we were going to see increased participation. we would see small caps pick up the mantle. that in december they had a terrible month. as for january, january 10 we get

annmarie: there a theory that a weaker currency is the best thing for increasing exports. overcapacity issue, overproducing and now they want to support their economy by making sure people buy those goods. a weaker dollar benefits that which is the reason why when you look at all of the reporting on the yuan we can income it is china letting this happening because it is a completely managed currency. this might be something not only did they just tolerate but they embrace. jonathan: chinese yields have fallen off a cliff the last few months compared to u.s. yields which remain pretty elevated. looking at growth expectations. they have opened up in a major way. how and if that spread reconciles over the next several months is going to be critical to a number of asset classes. lisa: there are two aspects. europe has seen weed growth --weak growth. there's a question of expectations and how low they are. this is the key question to me. how low have expectations gotten an has that created a bar so low that essentially europe is going to look attractive even if it just as i fal