we will start by getting an update from capitol hill with our chief political correspondent, annmarie hordernwhat are you hearing? >> the president is still in the meeting. he is likely taking questions from the group, as one representative put it, the president does not come to the capitol to conduct talks, he comes here to close a deal. they are making sure they are on the same page so they can push through the economic agenda. this all lies between the progressives of the party, which he is the head of, and the moderates. the moderates want those votes on infrastructure today. the progressives are continuously holding it hostage and saying until we see movement on reconciliation, the $3.5 trillion, senator joe manchin really only wanting the top one, but until we see movement on that, they will not vote for infrastructure. jen psaki said he will not try to lay out a legislative agenda, this is more about cajoling the party. romaine: you are talking about the democrats, the party in power and congress. where are the republicans in this? anne-marie: they are not in the caucus, i can tell you

annmarie hordern has the details. escalating tensions between beijing and washington as top military officers called china the biggest threat to the u.s. michael mckee also digging into the strengths we see in capital investment. abigail doolittle is looking at earnings highlights. after weeks of negotiations among democrats, they are closer to a plan to fund president biden's social spending by shifting the tax burden to the wealthiest in america. for more on this is annmarie hordern. how big of a breakthrough is this? annmarie: there are two different approaches, and one of them is a breakthrough, the 15% minimum corporate tax. even if you are able to skirt some of it, and be able to get some of that money back, it will be black and white. if you are a company that makes billions of dollars, 15% of what you report to corporate shareholders, you'll have to pay a tax on that. kyrsten sinema of arizona, a hurdle for the hike of the corporate tax rate, says that she think this could be a compromise, a way forward, a com

alix: annmarie hordern joins us for more.ost likely olaf scholz is the next chancellor of germany. what did we learn on what kind of spending we can see on that front? annmarie: two things came out of my discussion. even with the rising energy prices and the prices we are seeing across europe, he says the experts maintain this is transitory and that is what they are expecting. he says a lot is induced because of the pandemic. on the second front, we got a little bit of a peak on what his discussions are with the potential business partners. this could be the three way with spd coalition. he said we would see an expansion of renewable energy, more wind, more solar, he said these are where the discussions are moving. i was trying to push him about nord stream 2 two because you know their greens do not want nord stream 2. he deflected the question. i spoke to him almost four months ago and the exact same position in washington, d.c. and he corrected me when i said your party is not doing well at the polls. he said yes, but my pe

from the jfk memorial square in rome, annmarie hordern joins us.e been watching on the side of my tv wall. airlines such down in rome. there is not an airline from russia. there is not an airline from china. let's start with why. >> what this is about at this g20, what's int who is not attending. the president of china has not left china since the pent -- since the beginning of the pond since the beginning of the pandemic. -- since the beginning of the pandemic. without these two individuals, there will be some sort of communique that will be released. we do know that the biden demonstration is trying to plan some type of sit-down with the president of china. he has not left china since the pandemic struck. >> should the president accomplish more in rome that he accomplished yesterday in washington? >> he's facing two big struggles. one in washington and one in rome. if he cannot deliver his economic agenda at home and bridge his party together, what message does that send when he sits down with world leaders today and this evening? today is going

annmarie hordern. lisa, months end, is that really it? you are not convinced.a: what she was just saying is important for their trying to get the number done and then fill in the details. the details are the important thing, the thing they can try and sell. it's basically almost political malpractice to not talk about the details a lot of people agree upon because those details are controversial within the same party. can you actually create something concrete with this? can you imagine that. jonathan: great feedback. will you be able to tell us about the 1986 world series? tom: let me tell you about it. the only time in my modern life i've asked for an autograph was at the third base dugout of fenway park for game three and 86. i was standing with roger angel who is still with us, very elderly. you could see his knees were shaking, of the ball went into home plate, lenny dykstra hit the ball, it went over everett. they lost sight of the ball in the vicinity of nova scotia. >> all of this is a big buildup. the mets won. jonathan: has it happened since? lisa: [l

annmarie hordern, and washington, as she and the pandas assist in avoiding the shutdown.ed to go to the panda cam showing some excitement, with an urgent and the background sleeping, and they are walking like i walked to the set -- there we go. lisa: this is real action. tom: slough -- walking really slowly to the set is jin jin i believe. the shutdown of the panda cam, what really happened? annmarie: they stop -- they passed the stopgap funding measure but this is only until early december. tom: december 3. annmarie: this will be a repeat to make sure the government stays open, employees get paid, and the panda cam continues. tom: what do we do december 3? do we just redux this in 45, 50 days? annmarie: they need a budget and knots what they are working on in this resolution, framework to budget. avoiding a shutdown, there can always be stopgap funding measures. the real drama on capitol hill is about whether or not we are going to get that bipartisan infrastructure vote today, like speaker pelosi said she -- said we would. she promised a vote last night, yesterday, and

annmarie hordern come our bloomberg washington correspondent.arie, is it anywhere close to what we will see? annmarie there's a great question. there are concerns in the party and whether or not they can push the billionaires tax through. first, you have the house ways and means committee, which already said we had a plan that the public liked, that had wide support, but of course there was a holdout in the senate, kyrsten sinema. we did not know about the billionaire tax just yet. we know she is on that 50% minimum corporate tax. really two big tax details coming out yesterday. when you look at the billionaires' tax, though, the other big question is -- does this past the 16th amendment, will this pass muster in court, or will he say this is unconstitutional? this is a grainy way of looking at taxation and wealth in this -- or will they say this is unconstitutional? this is a brand-new way of looking at taxation and wealth in this country. jonathan: when people say "tax the rich," when people need to pair their fair share, when it comes down to

philippe etienne, french ambassador to the u.s., and bloomberg's annmarie hordern join us now in d.c.anded over to you. annmarie: welcome back to washington after your recall. i want to start there, this spat between washington and paris. has the mood music changed between these partners? is it looking more positive following these meetings between secretary of state blinken, john kerry, in paris? amb. etienne: thank you for having me come after the shop which was created in my country by the announcement without prior consultation, we have initiated, together with united states, and after president biden reached out to president macron and had a phone call on september 22, we have initiated a consultation process. there has been a lot of meetings , very substantial meetings on the basis of our common goals, to decide which concrete actions we can take to rebuild trust, to rebuild confidence. not only that, the two presidents have decided in which domains we have to take a common strategic action between united states and france to find a trust between two important allies. annmarie:

we want to get an update with annmarie hordern. anne-marie: you outlined a number of issues and the president will address head-on the debt ceiling to the american people. we are hearing from senator schumer that they may work through the weekend, but this would be the senate trying to vote through what the house has passed. the issue is republicans promised they are going to block this. they don't want to have a simple majority, 51 votes for democrats to suspend or lift the debt ceiling. they want democrats to go through reconciliation and if they do that process, they need to begin today because experts say it is two weeks and treasury secretary janet yellen already said october 18 is trying to bridge the divide between moderates and progressives. the gap is $2 trillion, with senator manchin saying he want something close to $1.5 trillion. progressives say they needed to be a little bit higher at the very least, even if they are able to come down from $3.5 trillion. the main takeaway is the president gave a nod to the progressive

here to talk about some of the concessions being made, bloomberg washington correspondent annmarie hordern on capitol hill. annmarie: certainly they are trimming, and potentially if they drill down to $1.75 trillion, that would cut in half that ambitious $3.5 trillion package. but there is momentum, and what you can see coming out of these meetings yesterday at the white house, the president meeting both wings of the party, the progressives and centrists, you can see what is going to be ditched and what potentially will live, and what might live, but not to its full extent. the child tax credit will likely get a single year renewal. the hope was that would go to 2025. you can see how they are already seeing some concession being made from the left to meet the centrists on the right. also, things like the community college provision, that is getting ditched. then there are question marks like the clean electricity program. if senator manchin maintains he could not vote for that, that is something that is still ongoing discussions. how do you fill that hole pin julie of carbon tax, or tax re

annmarie hordern, thank you so much. by the way, it is still earnings season. so far, year on year growth is really holding above estimates. abigail doolittle has the numbers. demand still holds up really nicely. abigail: demand is holding up very nicely. shares of ford particularly being rewarded, up about 10%, on pace for its best day since march of 2020. they blew it out of the park, beating top and bottom line estimates. sales and demand be by more than 5%. they restored the dividend. so the turnaround really is in place. caterpillar also very strong, up 3%. they beat both top and bottom line estimates. the ceo addressing the supply chain issue, saying they are not sure if the worst is over yet, but that it wouldn't take more than pundit percent of the backlog will take more than 12 months to fulfill, so perhaps a good signal there. mastercard beat, up 1.3%. altria down 5.2%. they missed, and they did take a $6.2 billion charge for their anheuser-busch stake. as for big tech, we got some big ones after the bell. ebay, those shares left on my checked lower.

annmarie hordern is here. she's got the inside track as to what is going on. what is the latest? ie: there will be caucusing in just about 17 minutes time. they are meeting at 10:30 eastern time. what speaker pelosi said yesterday, leaving the capital pop -- the cattle pop around midnight, is that there would be a asti capitol -- the capitol around midnight, is that there would be a vote today. she did not actually gavel out, so technically on the legislative calendar it is thursday, but we all know it is friday and they are past deadline. what they are trying to get negotiated between progressives and moderates is some sort of middle ground where the progressives are willing to vote for the bipartisan infrastructure, which at the moment they have succeeded in really holding hostage to say we need to see movement, real movement on reconciliation, or we are not going to vote for that hard infrastructure bill. alix: i love the gavel thing. that is actually amazing. thank you, bloomberg's annmarie hordern. that is one big risk, how much money is really going to come out of d.c. the o

annmarie hordern is on capitol hill. it just feels like more turmoil every moment we are looking at d.c. annmarie: and speaking of more turmoil, "the york times -- with the new york times -- "the new york times" contained a scathing article of kyrsten sinema. is a lot of politics going on, but to the reconciliation bill, as you said yesterday, it did seem that we had at least a baby step forward in terms of how they were going to skim down the proposals and be able to come to some sort of agreement. this morning, it just feels like there was a massive step act. they are now going back into looking at how they are going to have the revenue stream for this because senator kyrsten sinema, one of those holdouts in terms of corporate another taxes. they are looking at things look a billionaire tax, a tax on corporate buybacks. it is back down to square zero. the second thing i would also say is the president has two meetings with progressives and moderates at the white house on tuesday. in congress, speaker pelosi is saying t

annmarie hordern is here on a democratic party that is falling apart. e seen this script before. annmarie: as you say, he was the lone democrat in the kentucky congressional representation, so this is a very important seat. we should say,, louisville, as well, though, biden carry that with a pretty high margin. already republicans are saying this just shows, a little bit of the old-timers and the democrats, they know they are going to lose the majority. they are going to be out now. tom: in virginia, there is a tight battle there as well, featured in "the post" this morning. dovetail the sweat they have right over to speaker pelosi, speaking about an infrastructure bill and a diminished social program. how do you link the two together? annmarie: it is all about whether or not they can carry through to the midterms. what they could do now to go home and sell to their constituents. when you talk about what is going on in virginia, what is interesting is the analysis of the voting demographic. one key that helped biden win the presidency and helped a number

jonathan: annmarie hordern down in d.c. amh. tom: i don't know about that, amh.han: i think it is sticking. let's make a very some but when it comes to taxes. you can tax ordinary income. you can tax assets. much easier to tax realized gains. or you can tax transactions. it got to find a way of going about the taxes beyond just ordinary income. ordinary income is the easiest thing to go after, but at one point is 40% enough, is 50% enough? what is the line in the sand here? tom: add up your combined taxes. the politicians love to talk about individual taxes, and what we do is this one, that one, that one. sum them all up. jonathan: go after collective tax, not a regressive sales tax. ordinary income, it's got to stop. tom: i am not saying that with the bentley. (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with a 98% success rate and a more affordable weight-loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. no stimulants, no starving, just results, results you'll keep for lif

annmarie hordern can add some color to that one. let us turn to our first guest from mass growth -- from macro risk advisors. you call inflation an accident waiting to happen. >> these things are all related. they are ultimately grounded in the transition from this lengthy period of global disinflation to something considerably different. we are all watching the data, seeing an economy that is growing, but it is bumping up against supply and demand this -- the result is going to be higher prices. the biggest risk is the degree to which equities, specifically growth stocks that sit at the top of the s&p 500, comprise so much of the market capital. there's a contingent on this low inflation. the fed just watches the data, -- date come -- data come. i step back and look at the interaction, the fact that the s&p has got so much interest rate risk and it is a function of these large cap road stocks. then we have got this idea that inflation is rising and interest rates have not adjusted. i am worried that there is a potential that the ma

he is there with annmarie hordern. over to you. annmarie: we are dodging acorns.inly falling. i am joined by the finance minister. thank you for joining bloomberg. i want to start about the tone of your trip in washington, d.c. that comes after the dispute between paris and washington. you describe the u.s. as misbehaving. do you still feel the united states is misbehaving. minister le maire: i think that is what was done during the meetings was positive and constructive. we had constructive talks with the secretary of the treasury janet yellen, with the president of the fed jay powell, with all my american friends. i will have some meetings within the white house in a few minutes. i think we are on the right way to build back and to have a constructive relationship on all financial and economic topics. annmarie: another big question is how to approach china. you say the united states wants to be a little more combative while europe wants to engage. does this just mean there going to be an inevitable division on the transatlantic relationship? china is the corners

annmarie hordern in rome as we begin the presidential five days of president returning to washington.hing up with the first lady, a meeting with the pope. secretary of the vatican. stay with us. from rome and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. >> is not just inflation is going up. >> equity response generally positively to inflation until it hits a certain level. >> really don't see much more scope for two-year yields to move much higher. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. >> good morning. jonathan farrow. interesting and unique friday for bloomberg surveillance. we welcome all of you. it lisa, we are going to get to the markets with michael purves. if president and firs

bloomberg washington correspondent annmarie hordern joins us. what did you take away from that? nmarie: he's wrapping that up now. he reiterated the fact, when it comes to taxes, it is something being discussed on capitol hill. we don't have the text for what i knew billionaire tax would look like. he rated rates that he supports the 15% memo and corporate tax rate. potentially there is a path forward from the trump -- for the trump tax cut to last through this democratically controlled congress and white house. also, what happens with paid leave and climate. in the top line figure, senator manchin said he could not say for sure what the top line figure would be, but reiterated what he thought was fair was $1.5 trillion, and that in washington, we just talk about billions now as chump change. he seems to have softened on that stance. they are trying to wrap this up with at least a framework before the president heads to europe, at least by sunday, which is that soft deadline for the hard infrastructure. but even if they have a meeting of the minds and a framework, will progressiv

you heard the rude questions from the press, including two with a long island accent, the rude annmarie horderno joins us now. this is a habit from trump. why do you people berate him when he turns around and walk away? annmarie: i disagree. you have to shout. we are a few feet away. him and his staff in the room know what the press is asking. my question was, because yesterday, jennifer jacobs and i read that there was this late-night meeting regarding crisis talks, regarding higher energy prices, what he will do about higher pump prices. my second was about his plans for the federal reserve because we know that the vice chair of supervision, his term ended yesterday, and we do not know who is going to be taking on that top job in terms of banking regulation. tom: i just look at this and i say an important speech, but who was he speaking to yesterday? annmarie: he even started out with a bit of a joke. supply chains, what does that mean to the everyday american? he pretty much, in everyday terms, explained what the supply chains are. it is the president responsible for these bottlenecks? this

annmarie hordern joins us. joe manchin. there is a senator from arizona, original green member.ast progressive and liberal with a changed tune over the year. senator kyrsten sinema says we are not raising taxes. how does that play this weekend in washington? annmarie: there are reports that sinema wants to hold hostage the reconciliation package. she is very annoyed that heart infrastructure has not gotten about. there is a great piece in the new york times saying is she really a democrat? this is what drives democrats, the frustration with kyrsten sinema, she does not negotiation in public. where does she stand? the white house does say there have been good faith talks. we know what joe manchin thinks. we do not know where her mind it. tom: into this weekend, staggering into the end of october, how still attached are these bills? annmarie: at the moment they are very much so. that is what happened when the president made his way to congress. the progressives in the house had the numbers to hold back heart infrastructure. things could potentially change as we go to october 31. s

in washington, annmarie hordern, it is an odd october.re's radio silence on social legislation, radio silence on infrastructure. a beleaguered imf director, i guess she stays on board, and on and on. how odd is this october? it annmarie: --annmarie: it is pretty odd, as you say. there are a number love balls in the air. when you look at the debt ceiling today, the house is going to vote on that. we knew look at avoiding a government shutdown, it is all just being punted. we will be dealing with this again in less than two months. on infrastructure talks, we did hear from speaker pelosi in a letter last night saying that what she is hearing is overwhelmingly that there should be a focus on less issues, but done well. potentially we are getting a little more movement and closer to what that social spending package is going to look like. tom: tell me about international. is there any focus in washington on our vaunted european allies, the tensions with china as we go into imf world bank? or is it sort of pandemic odd? annmarie: this morning

with us now is annmarie hordern. the house comes back. what happens? nmarie: the house either be here physically in person, but many of them are going to be voting by proxy, which was ushered in with the pandemic. they are going to raise the limit that we do not have a default, but as you mentioned, it is just for a few weeks. we are going to be dealing with this in a bigger showdown come december. senator mitch mcconnell allowed the democrats in the senate to have an easy vote on this, but had written a letter to the president saying that will not happen again. right now in washington, when it comes to the debt ceiling, but also when it comes to avoiding another government shutdown, these are just band-aids. everything is leading up to early december, when there is going to be another big showdown on this. guy: great stuff, as ever. let's talk about what is happening with the earnings story, the industrial supply company fastenal out with earnings today. really indicative stuff going on here. at the go doolittle is digging into the numbers. abigail: it

annmarie hordern joins us, bloomberg washington correspondent. love to go to the white house and do the press conference thing, but the real news is in the back halls of the roosevelt room. what is the president's agenda today? annmarie: today he is meeting with the two different factions of his party. first he will meet with the house progressives, and later in the afternoon, the house and senate of the moderates. he's trying to find a middle ground between these two groups to push his agenda forward. this comes on the heels of the meeting yesterday as well. senator joe manchin with senator bertie sanders -- senator bernie sanders. the actually pose for a photo and were talking to the press, so it did seem a little more friendly then we heard over the weekend. senator joe manchin also meeting with the chair of the house progressive caucus, per millage eyeball -- caucus, pramila jayapal. then there is that question of kyrsten sinema. she does not negotiate in public. when i asked the president, he said he will not talk about what she has shared w

our good decision right now is to have annmarie hordern join us, bloomberg washington correspondent. just simple given the last 24 hour news flow of a 4.7 statistic. what is the president's agenda today involving these two pieces of legislation? annmarie: likely, he will be working the phones to try to get this over the finish line. this is his way to try to sell his agenda yet again on the heels of yesterday to the american public. but something has changed. yesterday we thought we were a step forward. even if jonathan called it a baby step forward. today i feel like we are taking a big step back. it is about what we can skim and sacrifice to get this bill over the line. today it is about ground zero yet again about how they are going to pay for it. tom: just goes to john micklethwait's begin with the prime minister the other day. you've got to get in front of the camera. from where you sit, is it a town meeting appropriate, or does he have to give more interviews? jonathan: politico came out with a piece, and the numbers speak for themselves. at this point, president trump had purch

we will set the stage by turning to our two crack washington correspondence, annmarie hordern who is d joe mathieu, the host of sound on who is on the other end of the white house. the big news to me overnight was -- annmarie: last time he tried to do this we know it was supported by the republicans. he invoked closer