i'm scarlett flew with annmarie hordern. let's get you an update on where things stand right now. cated to move higher at the open. this is annmarie: annmarie: a modest gain. small caps under pressure, there are some catalysts later on today. we have durable goods. treasuries, there will be a debt option today. annmarie: this is what lisa would start the show with. there was no government shutdown. scarlett: we have had a very different monday morning. yields continue to move up. they have been steadily rising. a lot of talk over 5%, maybe even 6%. annmarie: if we were to see the 10 year yield at 5%, 6% of what you were saying comes true, how will that push back on some of the fiscal policies the trump administration would want to do when it comes to things like tax bills? scarlett: it will increase our interest management expenses. a quick glance on euro-dollar. the dollar has been on a tear, up 7% when you look at the bloomberg dollar index. we continue to see the euro weakening. clearly the euro is a direct victim of a threat to impose tariffs. this time not buying u.s. oil and

higher position. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordernience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. jon and lisa are off today. annmarie hordern, holding down the fort for you today. thank you, sarah, for joining me. merry christmas and happy holidays to you and your family. the rally having a little bit of a halt. not actually going on the day after christmas. the s&p 500 futures are down more than .3%. how difficult is this moment to price equity markets between christmas and new year's? sara: it is difficult but you have ansell or information that we got from the fed meeting and from the cr fight, which is how fast are we going to get some of the things we thought we were going to get into 2025? that took some wind out of the sails. the fed being more hawkish and concern over things can get done. that is going to be a challenging year to parse anyway more challenging. annmarie: you think about how people were thinking about 2024 and how the year shaped out when you think about things like fed rate cuts. it didn't exactly pan out how

jonathan: annmarie hordern join us in 45 minutes time.sident-elect trump threatened the eu with tariffs, after the discussed purchasing more fuel from the u.s., the largest producer of crude oil in the biggest exporter of lng. we all remember ursula von der leyen coming out and saying, yes, we are ready to buy it. is this a place where we can make some deals? >> absolutely. there is bad news and good news. the bad news is for european policymakers is getting back to the idea of this truth social newswire being fired up at 1:08 eastern, and the good news is this is in line with european interest and with what europe has been doing the last three years. they have tripled their volumes of imports from the u.s. since the invasion of ukraine by russia. we have 50% of all the lng that comes into europe is already coming from the u.s. the other good news is we have had an abstract idea of 10%, 20% tariffs to close the trade deficit between the u.s. and europe. now the europeans know what donald trump would like, what can be done to avoid this. a

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. dani: good morning -- annmarie: good morning from new york city. jonathan and lisa are off today. i am joined by dani burger in london. i am in reordering. good morning to you. you and i obviously drew the short straws when it comes to this awkward moment between christmas and new year's, and obviously, that is completely reflected in the price action. there is no santa claus rally. it's a santa pause rally. everyone is on pause, waiting for the slew of information they are expect from 2025, most notably what comes out of trump 2.0. you can see that with affected in the pause we are seeing this light friday holiday. dani: so much potentially to come next year, and the set up as may be an comfortable one, which is maybe why the end of year rally is not continuing. the point we have gone to is an increasingly top-heavy market. this from the s&p 500, since the november 5 election, the mag 7 accounted for 86% of the s&p 500's gains. if you were to take them out of the index, the s&p would

announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern>> good morning to our audiences worldwide, this is "bloomberg serveillance." jon, annmarie and lisa have the day off. my copilot for the day, kriti gupta in london, england. happy to see you here on this monday morning here in new york city. kriti: i stayed late just to anchor with you, just for you. romaine: let's get the lay of the land here. financial markets worldwide here on the back foot, seeing a slight dip in stocks in asia, in europe. s&p futures pointing to a lower opening u.s. you are seeing a bit of it did in the treasuries pushing field lower. the dollar of the unchanged on the day. energy commodity, a bit of trepidation here on the penultimate day of the year. coming up, max kettner is going to be talking to us on why he sees a host of positive catalysts heading into 2025. we are also going to hear from terry haynes on the life and legacy of president jimmy carter. and a discussion here about the outlook for investing in emerging markets, specifically in africa. not a hu

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern.isa: welcome back to the start of one of the last trading weeks of 2024. all eyes very much focus on wednesday's inflation data as the forward visibility gets murkier and murkier. right now as stocks are basically range bound coming after a third straight weekly gain possibly on track for the best performance for equities in the u.s. going back to the start of the 21st century. right now the focus very much on the commodity sector with oil prices rising after turmoil in the middle east. jonathan ferro is on a well-deserved break this week. joining anne-marie and myself if the tireless dani burger. how high is the bar for these gains to keep going? >> the market is only concentrating on what it can see, and what it can see is fed cuts coming this month and progrowth policies from the trump administration. that latter one we won't know until sometime, more than a month at the earliest. the only thing that could derail that is cpi cummings wednesday. >> before that we have basically the w

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. lisa: good morning and welcome back. good news is it is friday. bad news is it is friday the 13th. the s&p poise for its first weekly loss in a month. there is something spooky going on under the surface. they were been nine consecutive days with more declining stocks than gainers and that is the first time that happen since 2001. the state of play is as follows. futures trying to claw back the losses. nasdaq futures leading the charge again as they have throughout this time. dani, what strikes me. we can make all of the puns in the world, the breath is not so good. dani: it is not so good and it is happening at the end of the year and earnings season. you see broadcom up 14% versus adobe falling 14%. as stocks get more expensive you have this idea the margin of error is thinner. you do not get stocks falling together. you get bad breath in a market that is more difficult to navigate. lisa: at the same time there is money flooding into u.s. equities, poised for a record 480 billion do

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordernromaine: happy new year to our audiences worldwide. i'm romaine bostick alongside kriti gupta. jonathan, lisa and anne-marie have the day off. an interesting punctuation mark to what has been a phenomenal year for equity markets across the globe. the s&p here on the u.s. sitting on 24% gains on the year in this particular tuesday, pointing to a slightly higher open. kriti: may be setting us up for some sort of reckoning. romaine: we talk about the tone it to end of the year, the year-to-date gains on the s&p, that we seen on the nasdaq, that we've seen on all of the indices around the world, but that performance did not necessarily hold here into december. those gains and losses here on the month and on the quarter as a lot of people do start to look at what is coming up in 2025. coming up here on this december 31, john stoltzfus, one of the most bullish folks on wall street talking about his street high s&p price target for 2025. going to be joining us to talk about the phenomenal ral

caroline: marc benioff speaking with annmarie hordern.gainst a snapshot can affect section 230. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪ think scaling your ai pilots is hard? think again. with watsonx, you can deploy ai across any environment. above the clouds and on lots of clouds. with your secured data on prem, in real time on center court and assisting bank tellers on the edge. watsonx helps you deploy ai wherever you need it. so you can take your business wherever it needs to go. ibm. let's create. caroline: today's big take is about a lawsuit arguing snapshot has helped dealers sell children deadly counterfeit drugs and a lawsuit could change the internet as we know it. bloomberg's olivia carville is here with another grand breaking story. fentanyl has become one of the leading causes of death among teenagers, killing more than 1600 people. all social media platforms are implicated. why is snapshot singled out? olivia: drug sales can be found on all social media platforms. what differentiates snapshot and why law enforcement is singling ou

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: have you recovered from yesterday yet? live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. bloomberg surveillance starts right's now. coming into thursday looking to trying to forget wednesday. the biggest one-day loss since august, the worst fed day for equities going back 20 years. that is 13 straight days of negative breath. lisa: negative for all of the wrong reasons with some of the high flyers catching down to the underperformers. there is a larger question. why such a huge reaction to a press conference that on the margins was largely in line with expectations? it was more hawkish than people previously thought but this was a seismic shift. the fed put is not there anymore. this is a flipping and flopping fed. the degree of uncertainty took the uncertainty in the lack of risk-taking to a new level. jonathan: i'm not sure who was more confused, chairman powell or the people listening. citi, unexpectedly hawkish, bank of america, unabashedly hawkish. steve

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. lisa: running and welcome back. the dark days of stop losses ended yesterday with a new record high for the magnificent seven. the focus has shifted towards unabashed enthusiasm for central bank rate cuts. the bank of canada, the swiss national bank both cutting half a percent over the past 24 hours, now it is on to the ecb rate decision later this morning. futures losing a little bit of steam in early trading. nasdaq leading on the downside .2%, not much to write home about after yesterday's record highs. you are seeing yields climb across the board, project leon the long end in the u.s. if the fed cuts rates next week, if central banks cut are we allowing inflation to pick back up. right now jonathan ferro is off this week. dani burger is joining us around the table. i am curious what you make about some of the frontloaded rate cuts we are seeing from the likes of the swiss national bank and the bank of canada. dani: i am wondering how much of this is a willingness to decouple from

scarlet: that was annmarie hordern speaking with marc benioff, ceo of salesforce.ook, a live look, excuse me, from inside the federal reserve in washington as we can you down to the for decision at 2:00 p.m. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. we are watching the federal reserve because it is set to decide whether to keep cutting rates for a third time this year. investors on monitoring fed chair jay powell's remarks, due to begin at 2:30 p.m. eastern time. let's go to washington and michael mckee at the federal reserve. everyone is talking about this hawkish cut. what does our hawkish cut look like? michael: [laughter] well, scarlet, what they want to do is convince people they are serious about inflation. even if they are going to puase, they want to let -- pause, they want to let the markets know they are still on the job. hawkish cut would look like a 25-basis-point cut, would be very surprised if that is not what i'm telling you what to :00. we will see changes to the statement that has to acknowledge that inflation is hi

of doing that. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordernlcome back as stocks claw out of their one-day pause, a decline of .6%. annmarie: it is the lamest pullback. lisa: the biggest going back more than three weeks which is important as we head towards cpi tomorrow. the market once ago higher with 57 record highs. people wonder how soon before get a 58th. back to the races for the trump trade. there seems to be this euphoria hovering over markets that don't want to go down. annmarie: they don't. yesterday we had a slight pullback and a lot of this, maybe they are waking up for the tit-for-tat. a harbinger of what could come in 2025 when you have china probing one of the biggest american companies, nvidia. this morning there was some good news. small business confidence. everyone seeing a major shift in economic policy. the market continues to price in deregulation, tax cuts. what they have yet to wake up to his tariffs and how big they will be. but they be targeted or blanketed? lisa: i want to pick of the point about small business optimi

announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordernjonathan: last month of 2024. where did all that go? from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning. bloomberg surveillance starts right now with equity features on the s&p 500 shaping up as follows. just a little bit lower, down by about 2/10 of 1%. coming into monday, all-time highs on the s&p 500. the best month of the year so far on the s&p. going into payrolls on friday. lisa: december tends to be a good month because people are feeling good. going on vacation and coming off of black friday which evidently yet another success. here's the real question. do we get some kind of kink in the perfect picture here, given the fact that we do get payrolls, we do get a check on the economy at a time when people are still thinking maybe we could rollover? >> the estimate something like 200 k based on our survey. until next week, cpi. the week after that, the federal reserve. consensus seems to be that you need to be on payrolls and upside on cpi and the federal reserve will paus

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern.onathan: good morning, good morning. for the audience worldwide, bloomberg surveillance starts right now. coming into tuesday after closing for a 54th all-time high on the s&p 500, on the s&p, a record high. the nasdaq 100, record high. futures just a little bit softer across the board. as we wait for more economic data, a little bit later, job openings. as we anticipate the big one on friday, payrolls friday. lisa: there's a lot of noise but to me this is really the main driver. yesterday we saw the 54th record high, and why? not because of the drama in france, because frankly ism manufacturing came in better than expected. all you are seeing new orders pick up to the highest levels going back to march. this is a u.s. economy absolutely driving some of the gains and the optimism despite some of the noise we keep hearing elsewhere. jonathan: cut or skip? that with the title of the speech that came from governor wally yesterday. as of today i'm leaning toward continuing the work which s

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern.round the corner. 90 minutes away. equity futures on the s&p a little softer. on the nasdaq 100, no real drama. we are down by .07%. basically unchanged. we saw the estimates. welcome to the program. the estimates look like this. the median estimate is 220,000. the highest is around 280,000. dani: it is nosy because we are coming off a low payrolls report. you look at the strikes, the hurricanes. deutsche bank and citigroup expect a return of jobs in october. 80,000 new jobs created. bank of america says 100,000. also the revisions. how much are those going to play into this? what does this mean for the fed? they want to keep optionality. we heard from jay powell in his previous public statement. this week it was we will be cautious. jonathan: for economists, that is the number one question. what does the cpi print mean on december 18? pocket participants, what can -- for market participants, what can dent the bullishness on wall street? chris harvey, deutsche bank, barclays. rbc, 6600

announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordernjonathan: "bloomberg serveillance" starts right now as we come into wednesday once again at all-time highs on the s&p 500. equity futures on the s&p, up one quarter of 1%. after a three-day winning streak on the s&p, we add some weight to the s&p 500 a day ahead setting up as follows. look out for the data later on this morning. ism services, 10:00. don't miss that. german powell, 1:40 this afternoon. lisa: how much is he really going to inform us after yesterday we heard from mary daly and kubler talking about how much the path of rates is going to be lower. this is a federal reserve that is setting the bar that much lower to cut rates at a time in the economy keeps outperforming and that is giving that upward boom where the u.s. seems to be -- the alternative. jonathan: the u.s. looks like a bastion of stability compared to the rest of the world. we are trying to figure that out this hour. over in europe, france facing a real possibility of their government toppling by the end of tod

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. federal reserve decision 31 hours away. we are counting down. equity futures on the s&p 500 down by a quarter of 1%. we have retail sales in america in about 90 minutes. 2:00 p.m. tomorrow afternoon we will hear from the federal reserve. we forecast the update to the previous forecast. a news conference with chairman powell 30 minute after that. annmarie: -- lisa: whether we get a sign. there was a huge battle over 50 basis points. it seemed like jay powell jawbone them into that 50 point cut. cavity message concern -- how does he message concern that maybe there is a fear of re-acceleration? annmarie: you have that with neal dunn or talking about concern going up. labor markets have been cooling. homebuilding stocks are underperforming. i see myself on the more cautious side of the consensus at present. 2025 will be difficult for the fed. what we just heard from mr. mccormick in canada, the idea it is geo macro events driving financial markets. jonathan: the dollar still strong. why?

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern.> this is the day you've been waiting for, to our 30 minutes into the most important data point of the week. a key read on u.s. consumer inflation. futures edging up after two straight days of losses which is the first time we seen that in almost a month. jonathan ferro is off this week. dani burger joining anne-marie and myself around the table. right now not necessarily setting up for some sort of big cpi-related shock, but just a hint of concern with yields creeping up for three straight days which is the longest streak in almost a month. dani: and i wonder what reverses them. presumably you need a big surprise to the downside because what we are expecting still should not give the any comfort. as i know you know very well, we are going to have to take a long bond option. lisa: speaking to the choir, dealing with 10-year note's being sold at a time when there is a real existential question about how much inflationary pressure is in the works. one of the key questions is the geopolit

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning. bloomberg surveillance starts right now. coming into thursday on a four-day winning streak on the s&p 500 after printing another series of all-time highs. futures lower by almost .1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq down .15. tons of economic data at 8:30. jobless claims did -- jobless claims that america come in tomorrow the big one come the estimate around 215,000. lisa: a lot of people are looking at good news being good news as long as we do not torpedo rate cutting expectations. even with hawkish talk from jay powell yesterday, there was this feeling rate cuts could continue because the strength we are seeing in the labor market is not in tandem with inflation. that is the feeling right now. jonathan: chairman powell seems to have confidence in the direction the committee is going in. we heard from chairman powell a few times over the summer. two stuck out, once in portugal and the other in jackson hole. at jackson hole very

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: live from new york city from her audience worldwide good morning, bloomberg surveillance starts right now with equity futures on the s&p 500 just about positive by one third of 1%. it all comes down to this the final fed decision of 2024. we get a fed decision. wildly expected to be an interest rate cut. 30 minutes after that we will hear from chairman powell. >> this to me raises a really key question and you and i have been discussing this what will the market's response be to a fed chair that comes out more dovish versus one that tries to stay the course and reemphasizes the threat of stickier inflation. it's not so clear-cut cut if the market will embrace dovishness. >> whether there some consensus they cut today and skip tomorrow that's what a lot of people seem to think coming on the show. timothy: -- ann marie: same regardless of what happens even if they cut rates will be higher for longer. and they say all of this has to do with policies potentially. what happens wh

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. scarlet: morning. alongside katie greifeld i am scarlet fu. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and an reporter and reordering are taking some much-needed time off. it seems like the santa claus rally israel. katie: after two straight weeks -- a little bit of green -- hard to take any move too seriously. scarlet: big tech is back on top and we have seen stronger breath which is encouraging given it is starting to get narrow. katie: it is interesting to see the broadening out. i think it is amazing to look back at this year of gains. the s&p 500 up 25%. this time last year wall street was saying we would be flat on the benchmark and here we are. scarlet: treasuries little changed on the morning. there is a bond auction. katie: we also had one yesterday. the two-year option pretty solid. scarlet: we knew there was a lot of demand for the short end. i am keeping a close eye on dollar-yen. if you look at the price action right now and it is not significant but there has been some mornings wi

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern.he second hour of "bloomberg surveillance" starts right now. here is a snapshot. equities right now positive by 0.2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, big cap tech, up again by 0.3%. lastly, a selloff in the market. this morning, a littleton of a bid. the 10 year -- last week, a selloff in the market, but this morning, a little bit of a bid. the big one on wednesday is that the decision and chairman problems conference. lisa: amid a confusing set of data that still gives a lot of ammunition to people who want to view this as a disinflationary environment and those who want to view it as an inflationary environment. the key question will be how the fed paints the picture into 2025, how much they accept some of the policy as fact or wait and see and how much that trickles into their economic projections. annmarie: moment of every and publishing -- mohamed el-erian publishing this morning. some think potentially you are going to have a skip and then a very long pause. very few but maybe once

how listen to it dan ives told annmarie hordern a little while ago.hy are you lifting the price target now? you said, i have a call to make. dan: because the bears are in hibernation mode because they can find ai in the spreadsheets, and what we see across the supply chain, we see strength not just into december. what i believe will be a record year for apple, 240 million iphone units. this is going to be in ai driven super cycle that is multiyear. they hated to trillion, despise it at 3 trillion and 4 trillion, they are yelling from the top of the mountains. anne-marie: you estimate 300 million iphones have not upgraded in over four years, so do you think this will be out of necessity because people are desperate for a new phone or is it that ai capability that ai introduced? -- apple introduced? dan: 67% is that, and that has increased 200 million over the last few years. it continues to be the golden goose of cupertino, but the ai driven piece is just starting. that is why it is a get out the popcorn moment because in our opinion, the consumer ai r

management -- jason spoke to annmarie hordern on the future of netflix. >> the consumer pays half oflix today. on the legacy linear side, you get about a penny per minute. just advertising revenue that netflix is generating off the games is probably a penny per minute. something like the super bowl is two cents per minute of ad revenue. what they are doing is moving up the value chain in terms of where consumers derive utility and they will keep moving in this direction. >> why do you have a neutral rating on it? >> my gosh, this stock is up almost 100% this year. >> i know, 90%. >> i can explain about half of it. they had upwards earnings revisions at 20% this year. the street also rolled forward from 25 to 26 estimates. that's reasonable. the balance of others is at 40%, around there, i can't explain it. there's nothing fundamental in the results that transpired that warrants that kind of multiple expansion. mistry on the supply side was penciled in 25 times eps. now they are at 30 times on 26 numbers. could the multiple go out? sure, it could. but we are not seeing anything fundam