anthony salvanto, everybody. we'll be right back with a performance by josh groban! ( cheers and applause ) advil is... relief that's fast. strength that lasts. you'll ask... what pain? with advil liqui-gels.

we have cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto here. so anthony, what would it take for the democrats to take control of the house? >> they need strong turnout. and they need to continue to get the people who in the polls say they are crossing over from having voted for then-candidate trump in 2016 to voting for a democrat for the house now. those folks. our latest estimate have it that the democrats would get 225 seats if the election were held today. but there is a margin of error on that, and i don't mean just as the statistics go, i mean as the politics go. if turnout does not merge, if a lot of young voters do not come out, people who haven't voted in midterms before, if they stay home, the republicans hold the house. >> what about on the senate side specifically? you don't really necessarily hear the democrats talking about that, in particularly optimistic turns, how much of an uphill climb do they have there? >> it is going to be hard for the democrats. the republicans are in position to hold on to the senate, maybe even add to th

please welcome, anthony salvanto! ) ( band playing ) good to have you on. >> thank you for having me. >> stephen: i am familiar with your work. i never miss "face the nation" on sundays, and you did a long study of voters all over the 2018 election to see how people were shifting around. were you surprised at all about the results of the 2018 election? >> no, i think we saw a lot of this coming, you know, but i think the key was to try to explain it. you know, before the election, we put out what would happen if a lot of people turned out and sure enough they did. >> stephen: was that one of the things that was predicted that a lot of people would turn out? >> predicted is a tricky word for poll sphears. we try to explain things. >> stephen: was it expected? people said they were going to show up. >> stephen: do people tell the truth? ( laughter ) >> yes, they do, actually. yes, at a do. people ask me that all the time. do people lie to pollsters, do they admit who they're voting for? and i always say why would you bo

we have cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto here. so anthony, what would it take for the democrats to take control of the house? >> they need strong turnout. and they need to continue to get the people, who in the polls say they are crossing over from having voted for then-candidate trump in 2016 to voting for a democrat for the house now. frankly, there are not many of those folks. our latest estimates have it such that the democrats would get 225 seats if the election were held today. but there is a margin of error on that, and i don't mean just as the statistics go, i mean as the politics go. if turnout does not merge, if a lot of young voters do not come out, people who haven't voted in midterms before, if they stay home, the republicans hold the house. >> quijano: what about on the senate side specifically? you don't really necessarily hear the democrats talking about that-- in particularly optimistic turns-- how much of an uphill climb do they have there? >> it is going to be hard for the democrats. the republicans are in positi

for that we turn to cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto. ony one of the busiest men in the building right now. let's start. you've done a survey of the house races. what does it show? >> we have been tracking race by race, especially in the competitive districts. the democrats go into tuesday in position to take control, even if narrowly, so right now they would get to 225. that's just a few seats over from the 218 they would need to win. there is margin of error on that estimate, and that leaves a very plausible scenario in which republicans retain control of the house. the story on that is not just statistical, it's political. it's what happens if the democrats don't get the turnout that they need and they don't get enough crossover voting. >> dickerson: let's go to the two scenarios. the first scenario is the one where democratic hopes are dashed. they don't take the 23 seats away from republicans. what has happened if that is the outcome on tuesday? >> the democrats are relying on this kind of cocktail, which is a heavy amount of turnout

anthony salvanto is our director of elections and surveys.re going to see a lot of each other six nights from tonight, anthony. let's talk, first about this: so the president is making this big push on all these rallies over te next week here. everybody battleground state we've been to, every one of these candidates has gauged what their line is on the president, all of this, one way or the other, is a referendum on him. >> yeah. he's not on the ballot, jeff, int he is on voters' minds. rossacross the battleground states, we see voters telling us erat they see their vote as either in support of or in opposition to the president. and that could reach historic levels this year. now, typically, in midterms, voters say that the president is a factor, but we're seeing those levels now go up by double digits. led maybe fitting for a divided country, it's just as many who say it's to support him as to oppose him. >> glor: we have seen that in every state we hav theking immia immigration, immigration. democrats, the focus is on health care. >> yeah,

all right, anthony salvanto, thank you again. house minority leader nancy pelosi said today health care was on the ballot and health sare won. our national exit poll showed a rijority of voters said that it was the most important issue, and it was a major factor in the senate race in nevada. jamie yuccas is there. >> i will never stop fighting to protect our health care. >> reporter: that message from winning democratic senate candidate jacky rosen seemed to resonate with voters here in clark county. clmocratic volunteers with the state's largest union used it to sell rosen to undecided voters. what specific issues did you hear from voters? >> well, health care. people want to make sure they can take their kids to the doctor. >> reporter: according to cbs news, health care was the top issue for voters in nevada. and voters who picked healthcare went overwhelmingly for rosen. voters we spoke to said part of that was because republican candidate dean heller appeared to waffle on the affordable care act. >> i'm fighting to protect p

political landscape in the final two days, weed like to welcome amy walter, ed o'keefe, and anthony salvanto. anthony, let's start with you. okay, so we've talked about this 225 for democrats. so what else inside those numbers, let's talk first about say young voters, right? so this is an important part of the democratic coalition. what are your numbers showing about their participation and also your survey numbers but also what we've learned from the early vote. >> what we've learned from the early vote is it has gotten younger compared the past mid-terms. the question is is it young enough. >> so far it feels like it is not young enough some there will be some factors coming into election day. big picture, in the polling, the democrats are highly dependent on people who say they have not voted in mid-terms before. that's going to be about 20% of their vote if those polls are born out on election day. if thool u we've rerun the models, and the republicans hold the house. the republicans hold the house. dems only get to 215, a it will gain but not close enough. >> amy, there has been a lot g

analysis in studio with cbs news electionsing director anthony salvanto and dick dick and nora o'donnellcbs evening news. >> stay with us tonight as the results roll in. we'll bring you live results and analysis on our special election night live stream on our website www.kpix.com. thank you for watching tonight at 5:00. >> looking forward to tonight. it will be busy. we've got you covered. allen and veronica will be back in 30 minutes with more. we'll see you then. % >> and welcome back to our midterm election-night coonch right here on cbs. polls are closed now in more than half of our 50 states. let's take a look now because one of the things we're watching tonight is what will happen in the u.s. house of representatives? the democrats need 23 seats in order to take back the house. and they've had some early but expected victories this morning. we're going to be looking at those key swing states. they've got some rich territory to mine there as republicans have 41 open seats there, retierms, or whatever, which means the democrats have a good shot. take a look athe

but cbs news director of elections and surveys anthony salvanto says democrats need voters who don't usually come out for midterm elections. >> if those volkswagens don't show up, we've re-run the model, and the republicans hold the house. the republicans hold the house, democrats only get to 215, a gain, but not close enough. >> reporter: most election analysts expect republicans to maintain the majority in the senate. meg oliver, cbs news, new york. >> we have you covered on election night. we'll bring you live results and analysis all evening starting at 8:00 with a special live stream on kpix.com. >>> in other news, a suspected flakerrer is under arrest -- flasher is under arrest in the south bay facing three counts of indecent exposure. sheriff's deputies say the incidents happened on october 23rd near gilroy high school. one alleged victim is a 13-year- old girl. the man was arrested and booked into the county jail. authorities say the suspect is already a registered sex offender. >>> a house fire in san lorenzo is under control thankfully. by the time the firefighters arrived

joining us now are cbs news chief congressional correspondent nancy cordes and also anthony salvanto, our director of elections and surveys. good to see both of you. big night tomorrow. it could be a long night tomorrow. anthony, more than 35 million people have voted already. what does that tell you? >> it tells you that turnout will be up if that trend continues. it tells you that new voters are coming into the process. we want the look at those voter process. and big states like texas and florida, four in ten of those folks didn't vote in the last mid-term. early voting has soared past the last mid-term overall in many states. if that trend continues, that's a key thing to watch. >> glor: nancy, let's break down some of the numbers. what does it take for control of congress to slip on either side potentially? >> well, in the senate there are 35 seats up for grabs. democrats need a net gain of two to take control, which is not as easy as it sounds. that's because 26 of those seats are already controlled by democrats. so they have to protect all of those seats and then pick up two of

and jeff has made his way over to the decision desk with anthony salvanto. . >> glor: yeah, okay, so a huge hold here in texas on the senate side for republicans with ted cruz defeating beto o'rourke. br republicans in the pete sessions seat in texas' 32, anthony has gone to the democrat colin alrad. >> yup, another one of those suburban flips, jeff, and we're seeing a string of them. that's where right now, that texas district then puts the democratic estimate at 199 for the moment. but i think when all is said and done i think the democrats can get to 227. that's where our trend line points right now. that of course would be over the majority. and so that's where the trend line is pointing from here. >> glor: you're talking about-- right now the net picfo. >> yes. that's where it is right now. but what i'm saying is if you take the kinds of districts that they're winning these suburban districts all over the country, if you project that out, i think that the democrats could-- could-- get over 218 and get to the 227. that's where our overall models point. >>

with us for a look at where america stands with five days to go is anthony salvanto who oversees pollingews. anthony, in these final days, how is the race looking to you? all of the polls have shown the democrats have a real chance to take back control of the house. with posters like to caution it depends on who shows up. what we did, we took our polling models and said, what would happen that all these voters said they will turn up for the first time in a midterm, what if they do not do that? if they do not, we estimate the republicans would hold onto their majority. that underscores the fa ct their majority. that underscores the fact that the democrats's chances are dependent on getting the people who do not normally turn out, to turn out. they are also depending on women turning out. there have been lots of different models, if only women were voting, the map would look one way, if men, the other. here is a graphic showing the split between college educated white women and white men without college degrees. there is something like a 33% gap between democrats and republicans. how impor

cbs news director of elections and surveys, anthony salvanto says they need voters who usually don't come out for mid elections. >> if those folks don't show up, republicans will hold the house, and they will hold the house. dems will only get to 215, but not enough. >> most analysts will expect republicans to maintain their majority in the senate. meg oliver, cbs news, new york. >>> the very character of our country is on the ballot on tuesday. >> did you catch that? former vice president joe biden may need to take some time off to rest his voice after the election and so will his former boss. >> as you may hear, i've been doing a little campaigning, but i'm a little out of shape. voice wise. so i'm going to be a little bit horse, i -- hoarse, i hope you don't mind. that just means i'm out there working. >> kamala harris was also out there tonight with fellow democrat gavin newsom. now she appeared alongside the gubernatorial candidate along the campaign trail in southern california. >> and when we honor our ancestors, we could honor them early, not just on election day. we can make