cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto is here to tell us why. od morning to you, anthony. what indicates momentum is stalling and why? >> good morning, margaret. this is the first time since we've updated the tracker throughout the summer and into the fall where democrats haven't been cutting into that republican lead. and it comes at a time when people think the economy is getting worse. in fact, two-thirds of people say that. we've gotten bad news tis week about inflation and the way people react to that is with gasoline. this august people thought they saw gasoline prices going down, now they are going up. we wanted to understand, how does this connect politically? i asked specifically, who's responsible for this? are the democrats and joe biden responsible for this? the answer is, somewhat. people understand there are other factors there. they know there's global factors, they know there's supply issues, but democrats are on balance seen as having been more harmful than helpful. now, a president is always somewhat tied to their economy. and j

joining us now to discuss all of this is cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto.ood morning. catch us up on tdynamics of thee races. >> good morning. arizona and michigan are two out of the five that will ultimately control the chamber. they're both close for reasons across all of these races, that is, it's the economy against abortion. which is to say, democrats are winning voters who are concerned about abortion. that's happening in wisconsin. mandela barnes is getting almost three-quarters of those who say it's very important. the economy, republicans are winning voters who say the economy is most important. going to punish the party in power and that's the democrats. he's getting two-thirds of them. having said that, each ■party is sort of jockeying to try to add another set of issues to that list. and on the republican side, one of those is crime. so, they're running attack ads, trying to tie democrats to this unpopular position. and it is unpopular in wisconsin of defunding the police. when voters perceive, if they perceive that barnes supports defunding the

cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto is here. good morning, margaret. we've been talking to voters throughout this campaign in all the congressional districts. right now our latest cbs news estimate is that the republicans lead in distri rity.ish to take now, there ran a these estimates. let me show you the political implications here. they really center around turnout. you might ask, do democrats have any chance to hang on, even to a slim house majority? the answer to that starts with the possibility that they get bigger turnout from younger voters. if voters show up the way they did in, say, 2018, that could get the democrats a little bit closer, make the house effectively even. the trouble for them is, we have not seen strong indications that that is going to happen. the more likely scenario is that republicans, who do have an express turnout advantage, more motivation, more enthusiasm so far, if their turnout advantage grows, we plug that into the model and that would get the republicans up to 238 seats, a slightly larger majo