so i had to find other ways why these letters to arthur burns are so because it's actually the letters between rose and milton. would only have captured their early courtship years where the letters to burns kind of capture the whole arc of his his career. and then in some cases, like, i wasn't really able to say exactly how did influence the writing of capitalism? freedom, because i wasn't able to find any drafts of the book or really any correspondence with the publisher about. and that was very curious to me. and that makes me think that probably rose friedman was worried someone like would come along, decided to kind of all that more personal material out of the archive. and so i guess i can understand her point of view and every every biography has its challenges, and you never all the sources you want. but i did my best to kind of show their family life, although i was restricted in what i could really document. how was their family life? so, so apparently it an economics seminar and then you a, you know, just nonstop and debate they had a code for saying four apologize saying i'

making the mistake that arthur burns made in the past of easing policy too quickly before beatingnflation. i think actually rate cuts will happen this year, but they could be a little less than the market is anticipating. you could have less monetary support to the global economy than the market anticipates. if you look beyond 2024, there is potential for rates to fall more than the market is anticipating. i think about 2025 and beyond. you know, if you look at previous cutting cycles, generally speaking, markets tend to underestimate the depth of the cutting cycles and we still think the equilibrium rates are low. we are concentrating on 2024, but we see meaningful cuts which is why we like the belly of the curve. >> it is silvia joining the conversation here. i would like to ask about the different speeds of central banks because one line in your report suggests that central banks have been equal in raising rates, but going ahead, the cuts could be more differentiated. how is that likely to play in the bond market and how is that likely to geographies? >> i think there will be q

, they wait another meeting, just to make sure once again, i know jay powell has the memory of arthur burns and doesn't want to repeat the proverbial 1970s i don't think they will. technology is such a big part of the s&p and such a big part of earnings when the mega caps really start to print -- to start coming out with earnings, i think they will be good. i think they will be ebullient in their conversation around ai. i think that's really when things will start fleshing out the biggest date will be february 21st when nvidia comes out. to me, that's the pivotal moment if we can continue to go higher in tech or start to take a breather >> you know, jenny, i almost feel like we need to get away from this idea i think the market is telling you that in some respects, that a strong economy means the fed is worried inflation will come back bryn makes the arthur burns reference from the 1970s, et cetera, when the evidence would almost suggest otherwise because the economy is strong, the data continues to be good, and inflation continues to go down the pce is the latest evidence, it's the fed's f

missed inflation saying it was transitory, he took it o the chin unlike any fed officia since arthur burnsel it every time he speaks, he is so much wants to desperately engineer a soft landing. >> we always appreciate you coming on, thank you. >> thanks, i love coming on. >> bret: why a woman who killed her boyfriend who stabbe him 100 times will not go to prison. the intense battle on capitol hill on nicotine patches. ue] another destination wedding? why can't they use my backyard?! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so we don't have to worry. empower what's next. jorge has always put the ones he loves first. but when it comes to caring for his teeth he's let own maintenance take a back seat. well maybe it's time to shift gears on that. because aspen dental has the latest technology and equipment. with a staff that goes out of their way to provide exceptional care. plus free exams and x-rays for new patients without insurance and 20% off treatment plans. making it easier to get started with quality care. it's one more way aspen dental is in your corner. ♪ >> bre

now he morphing into arthur burns under nixon.ry: soaks social justice, all the rest, how will they do their job. we got to get out of here. i don't see how they can do that. >> they can't do what happened to the defense department which went woke. now we have understaffed, you know mined military. larry: judy shelton. >> they need intellectual diversity. larry: you wouldn't make dei, i won't make dei, forbes won't make none of this. we're just out there. coming up we talk about donald trump, nikki haley and fani willis's boyfriend with fani willis's boyfriend with mark simone, joe concha. lots to do.rg dei ated the customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. fed. (man) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? what if all i do isn't enough? or what if i can do diabetes differently? (vo) now you can with once-weekly mounjaro. mounjaro helps your body regulate blood sugar and mounjaro can help decrease how much food you eat. 3 out of 4 people reached an a1c of less than 7%. plus people taking mounjaro lost up to 25 pounds. mounj

he's sitting there, his guys have done the studies, arthur burns, they cut three times early.n they had to hike again. he doesn't want that to repeat. he has two goals. one is full employment, one is inflation. he's hat goal number one. so it's not like he needs to cut to get employment better. and he's still not at goal number two. well, even the wage number, i know people are saying the hourly for different reasons, but it was a positive surprise today. it's still running at 4%. and that is, in a structurally tight labor market, which he sees, which is sort of like sort of the supply side problems we had in the '70s. it's going to be very difficult for them to kill inflation. it's going to stabilize our guest between 2% and 3%. not terrible. but there's no anxiousness to cut. by the way, one reason i'm so confident about no six cuts, it's an election year. once you get to the july meeting, he really can't cut until december. >> because it will look too political. we spoke with david bonson the other day who says this market could be range bound for years because it's fully v

nixon in the 1970s with arthur burns. it is all well-documented.his is talking about mexico, but gosh, for decades every time there was an election coming up the mexican central bank printed more money to make things feel good and then they ended up having to devalue afterwards. so guess what? there's too much long history of central banks getting involved in politics. i'm not saying i think jerome powell will do that but, boy, is the pressure there. charles: let's go to william h, again from new york with a question about government debt. >> right here, charles. good be to here again, charles. charles: thank you. >> what will it take for our leaders to make meaningful reaction to lesson the u.s. debt? what will impact of 10,000 baby boomers retiring. social security medicare. charles: i don't think they will ever address it. i think they give it lip service. i think take proverbial going off the cliff t will have to take something cat chris i can. cataclysmic. brian, what do you think? >> charles, i totally agree with you unfortunately. i wish --

forget about the arthur burns situation, because we hear it all the time, in all the presidential pollse still talk bing nation, not that the rate has slowed down but they know prices are significantly higher than they were just a few years ago, i don't think you want to spook them anymore to your point? >> rates slowed down. depends how you look at it. the fed targets pce, personal consumption expenditures but cpi inflation is running quite a bit higher than that. just because the fed targets pce inflation doesn't mean it is necessarily the right inflation number people have in their minds right? the fed having chosen that doesn't mean there are not other inflation data that are more worrisome. charles: maybe they should do a supermarket thing go to the local shop right. settle it there. steve fenn, appreciate your great, great writing. investors that have missed out on the rally you might be in luck. some say chase it anyway. history agrees. david nelson will give you more details next. ♪. [♪] sofi is helping me get my money right to achieve my ambitions. want to see? [♪] like saving

a lot of people are breaking for arthur burns when they say things have changed, we are going to pointsst moving to move it i don't hear that. jonathan: this is how the fed might respond to economic data. jp morgan results just around the corner. we need to talk about apple. apple, the standdown name, we headed down from barclays, another one this morning. downgrade in the stock to neutral from overweight, talking about value she concerns and broader micro-weakness for the first half of this year. jonathan: we all know -- lisa: we all know this, this is not a new story. they did not see sarah's growth -- sales growth and yet their stock is up. how much longer does it have to go? tom: they are good to spend $80 billion or $50 billion, the number doesn't matter. a lot of money on share buybacks. if you love this at 200, you have to really love it at 182. lisa: if you take that logic and you brought it out to the big tech sphere, mark zuckerberg sold the greatest amount of his greatest personal shares going back to 2021? how much can you glean from where they are buying or selling your if