be here. >>> joirching me arthur cashin from ubs. it's widely considered that was a do muchish statement from the fed. that used to be positive for the stock market. >> i think there's a couple things going on, even though the stock market is my business, i have keying off the dollar. the dollar moved in a way that proved it was very dovish. that puts the fed further in line with the ecb. it has since come off that. there is some concern that can wasn't dovish enough in the sense that people were hoping, not four times e. we're going to do more than hit the pause button. there's a small minority. maybe 15%, maybe 20% at the outside of people down here who think that it was dovish enough that the fed may be really frightened and something bad is out there. so officially they rallied, then they pulled bag because of that uncertainty. as we were talking, it gets back to alan greenspan's comments. if you understand what i'm saying, i'm not doing my job. >> a difference of opinion from a single tame here. right now the close is leaning so

and arthur cashin, when he says zero before positive one. how about negative one before positive one. we're in a tough environment here. >> you talking about rates there? >> yes, i am. talking about the fed funds rate. we're in a pretty tough environment here, and the only safe place seems to be place where is you can get a dividend, at least as far as stocks are concerned. there's nothing to like about this. i thought i smelled fear today. i didn't smell fear at any point yet today. at one point i thought i smelled it. >> we did see the dow down almost 400 points a little bit earlier. what are you saying to investors? >> what we're telling them is we are much higher likelihood of going into recession. 2/3 of our recessions in our history have come when the fed is increasing rates. and there's a lot of unusual signs that you're seeing. a flattening yield curve, the china situation that's occurring, but more importantly, what's happening with credit rates, transportations pummelling down with energy also dropping. that situation kind of sugge

arthur cashin from ubs. >> let's talk about this market and the economy. joining us is david rosenberg. so many people have come through. say the stock market is down 8%, 9% for the year. the u.s. economy is on solid footing right now. is the market trying to tell us a different story? or is something else beginning on? what do you think? >> well, i think that the stock market is pricing itself globally towards a much slower growth profile going forward. you've got some jurisdictions around the world that are priced for recessions. in canada, the tsx is down more than 20%. and the u.s., as rough as it's been, it's been a little more contained. you know, look, the stock market has about as good a track record as the consensus economics community. i seem to recall that in the fall of 2011, the s&p 500 was down 22%, and if you remember become then, the ecri economic index, and that was dripping off of everybody's tongues. it was another one of these, very steep, but plain vanilla corrections. looking at where you would go in a recession, this thing would have