the survey polled more than 1,000 respondents from all ten asean countries.ore for more. this is really interesting, isn't it, to hear what the asean countries are thinking about belt and road. that's right, and of course asean is that grouping of nations in southeast asia, and that survey was essentially conducted by an academic institution here in singapore. as you mentioned, it polled just over 1000 responses from these asean countries that essentially are wary of china's belt and road projects, thatis of china's belt and road projects, that is the feedback that they got, and who sceptical of the us. most respondents said president xi jinping's belt and road initiative would bring asean closer into china's aubert, but a third said the project lacked transparency while 16% predicted it would fail. now, a large majority of them, some 70%, said the government should be cautious in negotiating these belt and road to avoid getting into unsustainable financial debt with china. that is the view that seems to be strongest in countries like malaysia, the philippine

is it working from asean's perspective? >> well, to reinforce some of rick's points, the southeast asians are always very skeptical about india. that extends to the quad. to some degree, there's less concern about the quad because they don't see much -- there's not much of a there, there yet. on the other hand, i would say most southeast asians do not like the concept because the way it has been formulated and often sort of presented by some of the members does make it sound like it is an attempt to create a framework that will remove asean from the center. so they're definitely looking for reassurances on asean centrality and that the quad is not going to be in any kind of competition with the asean-led institutions. but there is some variation on that. i think vietnam, for example, would be more welcoming of the quad playing a role in security than some of the other countries, including singapore and others. i would make one final point, which is from a regional perspective, what they would answer if you were out in south

with asean, you opening any omission injakarta precisely to enable those discussions to happen ona enableo happen on a more co—ordinated basis. enable those discussions to happen on a more co-ordinated basis. uk foreign secretary jeremy on a more co-ordinated basis. uk foreign secretaryjeremy hunt. the negative impact of the us— china trade war is starting to show clearly manufacturing activity shrank in december for the first time in19 shrank in december for the first time in 19 months, and america is becoming less favoured as a destination for chinese companies. figures reveal that chinese investment into the united states fell by more than 90% in the first half of last year, and that is even as merger and acquisition activity in the asia—pacific region hit the second—highest level on in 2018. one member of allen and overy told me what is behind the move. i think it's a combination of factors. i think trade wars have certainly played into that. we identified probably three main reasons. one is really the chinese foreign exchange control, whereby the chinese government has banned a list

your macro outlook is liquidity turbulence and asean. can asean still benefit? asean will impacted. there is no escaping the slowdown in china, and the u.s. economy has well. term, the supply chain centered on china will be breaking up. some of that will be reconfigured and will start shifting to asean. any company wanting to expand capacity will want to ask if i want to risk more money in a factory in china, or hedge my is a with the trade war long drawn a fair -- a ffair? vietnam, thailand, malaysia seem to be the winners. benefit not necessarily in some countries that want to becausee value chain some supply chain movement or may not be high enough into the value-added bracket those nations need? >> that is possible. with technology, we have seen the korean plants moved to vietnam. micron wants to expand. thiessen has come to singapore. -- dyson has come singapore. we are looking at anecdotal examples showing up. interest from companies about the ability for other countries to accommodate. yvonne: we just got some breaking lines out of the house hasc., enough

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during the final day of election his facebook live, there was 270,000 live views, a record high in aseanand send a message to the malaysian populace. for a man who is still in touch in the way you describe, and is still engaged and, as you say, is willing to listen to young people and take on board your concerns and adapt the next election. 5 if you look at the other people who are part of the presidential council, none say that it is two years. so doctor mahatir has said two years, but no—one will hold him to it if he says, "actually, i am enjoying this, it is quite refreshing. i was prime minister 20 years ago, i am back, now i am back i don't feel like retiring." it could go on and on and on. yes, but knowing him, he is very focused on reforming the country. yes, nothing else to lose. he already has a legacy. he brought dysfunctional opposition to win a landmark election. he has nothing else to lose. he just wants to ensure that malaysia's name will be in the eyes of the world. well, it is certainly that. you understand that some people will say that's a test of, to use the expression

during the final day of election his facebook live had more than 270,000 live views, a record high in aseange to the malaysian populace. a man who is still in touch in the way you describe and is still engaged and, as you say, is willing to listen to young people and take on board your concerns and adapt policy accordingly, i mean, it doesn't sound like a man who is ready for retirement. i mean, he has mentioned and signalled many, many times, even though there were some portions of the community who said, "please stay on, please stay on," he has said time after time, the most recent one in our party general assembly, you would expect that a time when he says, "i will stay on as long as possible", he said that he will step down before the next election. in 2022? yes. so the suggestion he will go next year, there is no guarantee of that? no. i was one of the persons who signed the agreement between all coalition partners. i am a member of the presidential pakatan harapan. there is no agreement it should be two years. right. that's very interesting, because it has been said quite a lot by peo

diplomat elliott abrams to leave a latin america as an asean human reports some kolkata i'd be colombia venezuela border sending everyone here in caracas an almost surreal scene two venezuelans speaking in the same city at the same time each claiming to be the country's legitimate president. it's a high stakes bet for one by dog who was proclaimed interim president by the opposition controlled national assembly on wednesday he's now calling on the military considered the deal breaker in this conflict to support regime change. why dog announced the approval of an amnesty law to benefit army members prepared to abandon the glass model. while summoning venezuelans to take to the streets what about. those who think that if we're backing down that the streets have gone down have another thing coming the people are going to be on the streets for as long as the table. but at the presidential palace the embattled president responded by making it clear he's not going anywhere. we will defeat the coup d'etat that intends to intervene in the political life through venezuelan sovereignty aside and

most one hundred and fifty thousand maybe fifty thousand in russia and little more in china and other asean scattered around the world so true than fifty thought and they make a lot of money there's only. so seventy percent eighty percentage of the salary cuts. and sent to the state in the party so if they make all of them a hundred dollars then the amount is a much smaller man knowing it. put in your own. pair were schmoe fifteen million fifteen million a month they don't make only one hundred years bucks a year or month in they make more maybe several hundred at least. so a lot of money is going to control. the volume of their cash income jim's own winds fund increased dramatically in the past in the past twenty years in the past twenty years so he can buy. and he can. do continue this in a nuclear and missile program in the colony younger than his mother daughters are not of the way home you know will got us over more. i laid it on low for a while three cause we don't know you would follow joel or do a lot for. trying to do and i. believe it was a victory stand. among one. on the edge of

a survey reveals 46% of asean ceos think that global economic growth is set to decline — compared toe world. there's more number—crunching in thejapan times — focusing on the ultra—wealthy, whom the times nicknames, 'davos man'. there's more number—crunching in thejapan times — focusing on the ultra—wealthy, whom the times nicknames, 'davos man'. it says that despite ten years of political upheaval, the fortunes of a dozen 2009 davos attendees have soared by a combined $175 billion. the philippine daily inquirier reports on a referendum which could put an end to decades of violence in mindanao. if ratified, the new law would give the muslim minority greater autonomy. messaging service whatsapp is limiting all its members to forwarding any single message up to five times. the company announced the expansion of the forwarding limit — which had previously been trialled in india — in indonesia, ahead of elections in april. it's part of an effort to tackle the spread of false information on the platform. our business reporter kim gittlesonjoins me on set. what sparked this change for what

on the final day of election his facebook live had more than 270,000 live views, a record high in aseanessage to the malaysian populace. for a message to the malaysian populace. fora man message to the malaysian populace. for a man who is still in touch in the way you describe and is still engaged and you say is willing to listen to young people and take on board your concerns and adapt policy accordingly, this doesn't sound like accordingly, this doesn't sound like a man who is ready for retirement.” mean he has mentioned and signalled many, mean he has mentioned and signalled any mean he has mentioned and signalled many, many times, even when there we re many, many times, even when there were some portions of the community who said, please stay on, please stay on, he has said time after time, most recent one in a mac party general assembly you would expect that a time when he says i will stay on as long as possible he said i will stay —— set down before the next election. in 2022? yes. suggestion he will go next year? there is no guarantee.” suggestion he will go next year? there is n

into how you weigh look at the regional side of andgs in aussie on -- asean southeast asia?s one of the biggest headwinds the region is facing. our own expectation is that growth will slow down to 6.2% for 2019. overall we were getting more constructive when the trade truce came through in november. the latest round of trade data are not encouraging. this should create some headwinds for growth for the region. anotherin will be factor for central banks to start to think a little more about easing monetary conditions going forward. whether that is done through rate cuts or liquidity management, i think it will come down to individual central-bank preferences. , regionalhul bajoria economist from barclays, joining us from singapore. rishaad: facing turbulence amid uncertainty ahead of the mumbai [indiscernible] what on earth is going on? this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: you are back with "bloomberg markets: asia." as we look with -- as we look at jet airways, working with lenders on their $1.2 billion debt. it is one of asia's worst-performing airlines. yvonne: our reporter has a

among the asean member states, plus japan, china, korea, india, australia, and new zealand. so rcep is not as ambitious as tpp or tpp-11, but it's a very important mega fta because it does include china and india, china, india, and also a large country like indonesia. differences among the major countries are large, initially between japan and china on the level of tariff reduction and trade and investment rules, but after the start of u.s.-china trade war, china has softened. china wants to strengthen economic friendship with the neighboring countries. but india, india has been a reluctant member. rcep also generates a lot of economic benefits mainly because china's level of protection is still high, and india's level of protection very high. now rcep negotiations out of the total 19 chapters, seven chapters have been basically agreed on. sh so some progress is going on, but there are difficult chapters which are market access issues, in particular india is very much afraid of the negative impact of trade liberalization on domestic industries because already chinese -- chea

you got talks going on with japan, with south korea, with asean which the chinese hope will produce some kind of trading block there. there's an awful lot to play for in this. with technology and while china may give up the words of made in china 2025, the controversial modernization plan, which it drew up a little while ago, it will still want to move ahead technologically. one thing that this trade fight has brought out is how backward china is in many respects. >> how concerning is it to you that economic data has been weakening recently how much of a factor does this play in the chinese government's willingness to negotiate >> that's one question we'll have to watch over the days and weeks. the slowdown in china, we got it with the latest pmis that came out today was -- could be foreseen the xi jinping has been wanting to deleverage, slow down the economy. the problem is they got the trade war coming at the same time and uncertainty among private business, which produces most of the growth in china, which doesn't quite know where it stands with xi jinping's big state approach >> one

and very affairs little interest in exercising traditional role as the real leader and the leader asean. it would be a reassuring sign for indonesia's democracy. michael: the common denominator, even if there is of elections or economic orcause of political factors, the general trajectory in each case is not to change that much. or example, india you asked would relations likely or not trajectory. not changing the strategies specifically. you can pick a couple candidates, it won't change with the u.s. or the quad or the pacific strategy. fair to say, the biggest effect with change in these countries, is governance and olicy are going to be more dysfunctional and less effective. do you think that's right, rick? i do think we may suffer if modi loses, he has pressing the gas pedal effectively, new agreements that solidified our military partnership or however you want to term it. don't think you will see a regression, you may not see as much progress on the regular congress comes to power. they want to build relations of players instead of making bets on individual countries. a we are at

and then there's the regional comprehensive economic partnership, which is this asean plus 6 negotiation, including china, but not including the united states. and i think this is a -- i've lost count. either the third or fourth year in a row the group has promised for sure they're going to get a deal by the end of this year. so i guess question and -- you should weigh in on this, as to whether india is going to allow that to happen. but bill, do you want to kick us off on any or all of the above? >> well, i think for most of them, it's going to be a year of -- i don't think any of them are going to come to a conclusion. it will be a year of activity. at different paces in different ways, the japan negotiation is probably the -- the easiest to actually get started. they're not arguing over the shape of the table, to use an old metaphor. it won't necessarily be an easy negotiation, but at least the parameters of it, i think, are pretty much set out. there may be bandwidth issues on the u.s. side, because don't forget, they not only have to deal with china in the short-term, they also have

then there's the regional comprehensive economic partnership, this asean +6 negotiation including china but not including the united states. i think and i've lost count this is the first or fourth year in a row that the group has promised, for sure they will get a deal by the end of the year. so i guess the question and, kartikeya singh you should weigh in on whether india will allow the happened do you want to kick us off on any or all of the above? >> for most of them it will be a year of the immigrant coming to a conclusion, year of activity. at different paces and in different ways, the japan negotiation is probably the easiest to get started that they are not arguing over the shape of the table, to use an old metaphor. it won't necessarily be an easy negotiation but the parameters are set out. you may be bandwidth issues on the u.s. side because don't forget, they not only have to deal with china in the short term but the task of getting the u.s./canada agreements with u.s. congress which is possible but will be labor-intensive and time-consuming, particularly for the political off

we support the asean nations developing their own coast guard and actively combat predatory operations that offer little long-term benefit to nations they supposedly assess. the coast guard has nine ship writer agreements in oceana to expand reach come help those partner nations patrolled the own waters and effectively reserve their sovereign interest. working with the state deprived that we've transferred more than a half-dozen former coast guard cutters to regional partners building the domestic capacity to protect their sovereign and territorial interest. in collaboration with admiral davidson and his team at indo-pacific command we encourage a free and open indo-pacific region. the simile team with the department of defense as part of the rim of the pacific 2018, the largest maritime exercise on the quote and we sent one of our flagships, national security cutter bertholf to purchase figure it was a terrific operation. currently we're in the operational planning phase for pushing and national security cutter into the indo-pacific theater in the coming calendar year. the coast guard

then you have the oil and gas side where you did have an agreement in december 2017 between china and asean to declare a decade of coastal and marine environmental prek protection miss the south china sea and pledged to follow that up with concrete negotiations. over a year later, as far as i know, there have been no concrete negotiations. again, it's run into the same problems, geographic skill, et cetera, than the others. so i don't have a whole lot of faith, though if there's a crack, i suspect it with be an marine -- >> bea, in the u.s. commitment to the philippines and south korea. talked ant this in the last panels as regards to the philippines. greg just co-authored a terrific peace with eric sayers, war on the rocks, this issue, which i commend to you. so, quickly, greg, what do you think of the prospects from your perspective of the u.s. making a reaffirmation? >> yeah, this was my choice. i'm obviously doing a terrible job, if the goal is to guess where the audience is going to go, largely because of the negative consequences. if we don't do this on both sides, the consequences fo

yorizumi: reasonably i would say a couple of countries within asean, they have already cptpp.ed to join to be engaged in the trade negotiation, particularly the market access. another thing which is important is they have to accept the rules part of the cptpp. i think these things are going to be fading away for the larger part of this membership. ramy: bloomberg business speak had -- bloomberg businessweek had a story about globalization thriving despite the rhetoric and actions out of the united states and other populist leaning nations. would you agree with that, or do you still think there is an attack that still needs to be figured out on globalization? yorizumi: the fight or struggle against protectionism, that has been taking place all the time, you see. this time we have very colorful, ony extraordinary president the other side of the pacific, so we have some difficulties certainly. if you look at japan's trade cptpp 11, we have also a free-trade agreement with european union, which is [indiscernible] the first of next month, february, and our regional economic partnership which

there are multiple players, like europe and asean.ope trying to substitute for american suppliers and their -- their costs rise because of reciprocal tariffs, so there are many players and it will play out over not just a quarterly basis but really the next decade or more. we can also look backwards and since the asian financial crisis done a good job ringing down its own barriers. one of the things happening this year is the passage, agreement of comprehensive economic partnership. tpp has gone into effect. people are saying how can we substitute as much as possible for the politically risky suppliers and trade with the u.s. because of the trump export controls? haidi: you have economies across asia that have attracted india and that could make up for the slackening in the chinese economy. isn't it the case, supply chains what they are and supply-demand what it is, china sees the rest of the world catch a cold? parag: yes and no. if you go back to the financial crisis, asia integration had self-sufficient in the sense of trade with g

if you look at asean countries, i think burma is the one that has actually established the specific committee dedicated to choose advanced on a b.r.i. in the country. >> yun sun: i don't see that another mainland southeast asia and countries. and i don't see that in maritime southeast asian countries. but if you talk about pakistan and compare burma to pakistan, pakistan does have dedicated government coordinated nation mechanisms to support the cpac process, the china pakistan economic order. burma's embracement, the embracing of b.r.i., has come relatively from the chinese standard, and they were hoping that the governments, they were understanding that with political traditions that -- transitions -- happened in 2015, the government could have a different attitude towards the chinese in their country. at the beginning, the government was quite concerned about the implication of the mega chinese infrastructure projects in the country, particularly associated with the deep-sea port. what happens was the rohingya crisis, that putting pretty much put myanmar back into the pariah state or statu

good chapters on korea, south east asia, china, taiwan, south china sea, asean and all the human rights and all that. but i think, and you saw that when president trump signed it. he said i'm signing it but i'm going to ignore it. so i think that's what it is. but obviously we have a former congressman. there is an important role for congress and we are now facing essentially with midterm election democrats having one the house. so you will be different dynamics but i think you should see it as what i call sense of congress, especially previous congress, is going to be, teach us what the consensus is. but be on that items like in north korea or korean peninsula that there should be no pullout of the troops. that's completely within the administration branch. >> sets up a question for congressman boustany, logically. for the first use the trump administration had advantage of republican congress. democrats control the house. how will dynamics between administration and the congress changed? >> they're off to an auspicious start with the ongoing shutdown, and he knows how long that's goin