ashish jha of the global health institute. always good to see you. justify this very frightening analysis. is this just a guess? how did you get there? >> chris, thanks for having me on. it's not just a guess. right now we have between 800 and a thousand people dying every single day in america. and all of the models, all of the data suggests that things are going to get worse, we're going to have increases. but even assuming it's going to be flat all summer, that nothing is going to get worse, we're going stay flat all summer. even if we pick that low number of 800 a day. that's 25,000 a month. in 3 1/2 months we're going to have another 87,000 people, and we will hit 200,000 sometime in september. >> but it's getting better, it's getting better, doc. here is the pushback. it's getting better. the numbers are going down, new york is doing better, others are doing better. the states where it's going up, they don't have a loft cases so we don't have the same kinds of problem we had in the beginning. you're trying to scare us into staying home because

ashish jha to discuss the u.s. response to this pandemic, dr. i want to ask you about schools reopening in the fall. is this a -- how realistic is it for schools to begin instruction in classes, bringing back students, college campuses, is that a real possibility given the surge that we're seeing in key states across the country? >> yeah, so, thanks for that question. everybody is interested in this, i have three kids, my wife and are wondering are we sending our kid backs to school? we're desperate to send kids back to school. it is important we get kids back in, we open up colleges and universities. the single biggest factor of whether schools can open and stay open is how much disease outbreak there is in their community. and if we look at the levels of infection that are happening across much of the country right now, if those numbers are sustained into the fall, there is little to no chance we're going to be able to keep schools open. this is why it is so urgent for us to get political leadership to really work on bringing virus levels down,

ashish jha, director of the harvard institute.d some checking, the centers for disease control and prevention last thursday suggested that by june 27th, there could be anywhere between 118,000 to 143,000 coronavirus deaths in the u.s. the university of washington study said by august 4th there could be 145,000 deaths in the united states. but you're now suggesting 100,000, another 100,000 americans will die potentially by september. tell us why. >> yeah, wolf, thanks for having me on. and i'm really sorry to have to share such news. but if you look at the data, if you look at where we are as a country, between 800 and 1,000 americans are dying every day. even if you look the low end of that, 800, that's 25,000 deaths a month. and over the next three months, that's an additional 75,000. that's by the time we get into early september. unless we change course -- even if we don't have increases cases, even if we keep things flat, i think it is reasonable to expect that we're going to hit 200,000 deaths sometime during the month of sep

ashish jha, director of the harvard global health institute.begin with this new information from england and what we are to make of this possible treatment? >> yeah, lawrence, thanks for having me on. so as you said, all we have is a press release, and this is not how we're used to evaluating studies and looking at data. but the group that's doing the research and their protocols are public, and they're pretty good folks and they do high quality work. so i am cautiously enthusiastic. this is a cheap drug, it's widely available across the whole world. and the impact was pretty large. big effect. so i'm cautiously enthusiastic, but i want to see the data before i know whether this is going to be an important part of the therapy or not. >> i'm confused about how to react to these rising numbers in arizona, florida, texas, because even with the rising numbers, when you do the per 100,000 people measurement, arizona ranks 19th, florida even with the increase in cases, ranks 35th in the nation per 100,000 population. and texas ranks 38th in the natio

ashish jha, director of the harvard global health institute. dr.ew cuo cuomo's recommendation, if you've been at a large protest you should now get tested? >> good evening, lawrence, and thanks for having me on. so i agree with that. obviously we're worried, all of us are, that the protests are going to fuel new infections. one of the best things people can do beyond wearing masks and using hand sanitizers and trying to stay in small groups is getting tested before and after the protests. >> what would you say to someone like mitt romney, who is in his 70s? he's a man of obviously great physical health and i'm not even going to say for a man of his age. for looks like a man of 35. and he decided yesterday he wants to go out to that march in washington. he put on a mask. he went out to that march. what would you say to him before that? would you recommend against him doing that? >> you know, these are complicated decisions, lawrence. people are choosing between things that obviously increase their risk a little or a lot, depending on how you behave,

ashish jha joining us once again, thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> my pleasure, thank you. >> woodruff: now, to syria, and the brutal war in its 10th year. amid depravity and rened bombing by the air corps of bashar al-assad and his russian backers, a new worry-- coronavirus.sc as nicfrin reports, people who have suffered so much, now are preparing for an unseen foe> chifrin: in a small office prepare for another war, against the coronavirus. for weeks, they have feared a ghtmare-- an outbreak within a war zone-- so they're making homemade covid-19 tests. >> ( translated ): there is only one testing machine in all of idlib province, for fo million people. it's not enough. so we decided to startinesigning a mathat would allow for testing multiple samples for coronaviruin a short period of time. >> schifrin: to get to theirha workshop, ayouk walks through a homemade disinfecting mache. they're also making ventilators, out of wooden boards and plastic tubing. they hope to make hundreds for local hospits. >> ( translated ): we decide

ashish jha of the global health institute. i want to talk about the state of affairs that he's flying into and that you have been living with. i was reading about people waiting in line hours for a test in arizona, what is happening on the ground where you are? >> thank you for having me, chris. yes, so, i'm definitely seeing a big surge in patients. a couple of months ago we were trying to prep for this pandemic and we thought we were good to go. but i suppose even i didn't anticipate that people would treat this like a rebound relationship once stay-at-home orders went away and immediately decided to say they need to go out and do as much partying or whatever it is as they can. it is not a huge case load, a lot of them have covid-like illness and almost all of them are testing positive. >> almost all of them are testing positive and you have the mayor of phoenix begging people that go to this gathering with the president to wear a mask. in fact, she said i don't even believe an event of this magnitude can be held safely. do

ashish jha is director of the harvard global health institute. >> i'm very concerned about large partsf our country, especially arizona, texas, florida, south carolina but other states as well, where we're seeing really, pretty substantial increases in cases. >> reporter: he also says declining death rates likely will rise again. >> typically it takes about two to three weeks from an infection 'til somebody gets sick enough to die from the disease. >> reporter: georgia reported a record daily number of new cases sunday. and at least 19 states have more patients hospitalized for covid- 19 than two weeks ago. in west virginia, a planet fitness gym temporarily closed after a member tested positive. more than 200 people who may hve been exposed were asked to quaantine and in tennessee-- country singer chase rice is facing backlash after playing a concert where social distancing was not enforced. you won't hear the music of broadway, however. broadway, however.shuttered shows will remain should erred through the end of the year. manuel bojorquez, cbs news, miami. >> reporter: this is janet

ashish jha, director of the harvard global health institute, now predicting at least 200,000 deaths by the end of the summer. >> i had hoped that the fact that people were spending more time outside, that it's summer, we would not see such a big increase, so fast. but it's more concerning than i had hoped we would get at this point. >> any hope of a summer vacation from covid-19, quickly fading fast erin mclaughlin, nbc news, phoenix. >> a woman on the brink of death, saved thanks to cutting-edge surgery the patient's in her 20s, her lungs severely damaged by covid-19 and then, doctors at northwestern performed the first-known double lung transplant in the u.s. on a coronavirus patient. our tom costello has more on this medical miracle >> at northwestern memorial hospital in chicago, a dramatic example of the devastation caused by covid-19 on the left, a healthy pair of lungs. on the right, the lung of a woman in her 20s, ravaged by the virus. it took a double lounung transpt to save her life. >> while she still has a long road ahead of her, i am extremely hopeful that she is going to

ashish jha who spoke to cnn about ramping up testing saying those are keys. and the goal in all of this, just outside of saving lives which is obviously the biggest intention here. but let's listen to what he has to say. >> shutdown is the most extreme version of what you need to do. so, what many of us in the public health community have been advocating is let's do everything to prevent a shut down. what are things we can do? let's make sure that large gatherings, especially indoor, where people aren't wearing masks, let's not do that. let's actually encourage and i believe in mask mandates as a way to increase public health. let's ramp up identifying cases and isolate folks. >> there's a lot of concern for jobs, for the economy, for mental health, as to what another shutdown might do. are you confident that you can avoid a shutdown? >> well, that's why we're taking the action that we're taking right now. and i can't agree with that doctor more. he's absolutely right. a shutdown would be devastating to our economy, psychologically and emotionally, it would b

ashish jha, thank you so much. >>> president trump is about to hold a campaign event in phoenix wherecases are skyrocketing. we're on the ground there next. stay with us. you should switch it to tracfone wireless to get more control over your wireless plan. they give you unlimited carryover data-- you pay for your data, you keep really? yeah, you just swap your sim card you can also keep your phone, keep your number, keep your network, $20 a month, no contract. oh, but that case- temporary- it's my daughter's old case- well, ok, you know. you do you. available 24/7 at tracfone.com tracfone wireless. now you're in control. >>> president trump is in arizona right now where any moment he will address thousands of students at the dream city church. it doesn't look like there's much social distancing going on there. arizona is a key battleground state with 11 others up for grabs. it's also a coronavirus hotspot. today, state health officials announced 3,591 new cases as well as 42 deaths in the last day. cnn's ryan nobles is in phoenix at the church. ryan, what do we know about this addres

ashish jha. good morning to you. let's talk a little bit about these numbers.he death toll in the united states now tops 120,000. we have 25 states seeing an uptick, surging numbers in texas, arizona, and florida. i actually read this article that said texas children's hospital is now opening its beds to adults so they can free up other beds for covid patients. so how do you account for the uptick in these numbers? and do you think we're ready for it? >> yeah, so good morning. thanks for having me on. you know, about a month and a half ago the president's own task force laid out criteria for what states should use before they open up. and a good number of states, many of the places where we're seeing spikes, ignored those criteria and opened up when the case numbers were high and they were not coming down. in many ways, this was expected. as upsetting as it is to see these cases, it's not surprising. and the question now in front of us is what are we going to do to curtail these spikes so our hospitals don't get overwhelmed and we don't have to shut down again.

ashish jha. director of the global health institute, good morning to you.et's begin with that headline out of the cdc, a startling one, indeed, that the total number of infections is actually ten times higher than reported. we could be looking at 20 million cases. how much does that concern you about where we are and where we might be headed? >> good morning and thanks for having me on. on one hand there's good news there that maybe more americans have been infected and recovered. but even if we take that number of 20 million, that's about 7% of the population. that means 93% of americans have not yet been infected. we're still very, very early in this pandemic. the other part, of course, is that it says we're missing 90% of the cases because we don't have enough testing in our country and so the idea that too much testing is leading to too many cases, the cdc finding that we're missing 90% of the cases because we can't test enough people is really i think laying, you know, that that argument really doesn't make much sense. >> are you saying we don't have e

ashish jha, director of the harvard global health institute. doctor, thank you so much.s is, honestly, deadly serious. 23 states. nearly half the country, in the red with new cases. ten have seen a record number, this week. it's looking dire in florida. do you expect this to get even worse? >> yeah, unless we do some major changes in policy, don, i am worried that these are going to get worse. and we may see more states joining that list. look. there are a few things we know that really do work. and i think, unfortunately, in many parts of the country, we're not really implementing them and that worries me. >> you know, doctor, there's -- oklahoma cases are up 110%, from this time last week. that arena holding the president's tulsa rally, asking for a safety plan. if the campaign cared about safety, would it even be holding this rally? >> yeah. so, you know, what we know and what the science tells us, right, is that there are three things that really make mass gatherings dangerous. being indoors, not wearing masks, and having people close together, for long periods of ti

ashish jha. secretary azar says the window is closing. what does that mean? >> so thank you for having me on. what secretary azar is referring to is that in many, many states across the country, the outbreaks are getting so severe that if states don't act aggressively and don't act now, they are essentially going to be looking at shelter in place orders across the state. and they're going to be seeing overwhelmed hospitals. overwhelmed icus. and i think rightly pointing out the time to act is now. >> we talked about california closing bars, florida closing beaches. is that what secretary azar means? is that the right way to deal with this? >> i think some of those are good steps. i do think closing bars -- any indoor gathering right now in hot spots is risky. so i think all of those places with big outbreaks happening have to -- closing indoor restaurants, bars, nightclubs. anything that brings large numbers of people together indoors is risky. i think all of those states need a mandatory mask rule now. so the combination of those two things are both critical

ashish jha, thank you very much. >>> a hearing today in federal court as the trump administration trieslease of john bolton's new book. so we'll ask the president's former chief of staff, mick muck, hmuc mulvaney, his thoughts on this book, next. opping with home delivery and special finance arrangements. so, whether you visit your local dealer or prefer the comfort of home you can count on the very highest level of service. get 0% apr financing up to 36 months on most models, and 90-day first-payment deferral on any model. less oral steroids. taking my treatment at home. nucala is a once-monthly add-on injection for severe eosinophilic asthma. not for sudden breathing problems. allergic reactions can occur. get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. infections that can cause shingles have occurred. don't stop steroids unless told by your doctor. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. may cause headache, injection site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. ask your doctor about nucala at home. find your nunormal with nucala. robinwithout the

megan ranney, emergency room physician and brown university researcher and ashish jha, the director of global health institute. and dr. ranney, i want to put up a map of where we're seeing the cases jump this week. there are a lot of states, if you can look at it there, in red, which means that it is pretty much spiking. how worried are you? >> i'm quite worried, dana. i am not surprised many of us in medicine and public health predicted this was going to happen. if we reopened without adequate testing, and tracing, without adequate emphasis on the public wearing masks, listen, we're all tired of social distancing. i totally get it. if we go back to normal, this virus is still there, it doesn't care that we're tired, right? if we go back to normal without continuing to wear masks out in public, without maintaining some physical distancing, cases are going to spike across the united states, our intensive care units and my ers are going to fill and we're going to be back where we were in early march. we worked so hard to get here, we must keep it going for a little longer at a very minim

ashish jha, dr. megan ranney, emergency room physician and researcher at brown university. dr. jha, simple question, is this fading? is this dying as the president says? >> you know, john, we all wish it were the case. but unfortunately what we are seeing is a resurgence in many parts of country. it is -- we have to remember we are early days in this pandemic. not only is it not fading out, this will be with us for at least another 12 months and that's the most optimistic scenario for having a vaccine. unfortunately it is not fading away and in many parts of the country it is only getting worse. >> dr. ranney, one of the challenges, we all knew this was going to be a long slog, good days and bad days, good weeks and bad weeks. welcome to human beings making decisions in a tough time. part of it is the question of leadership. we can show you some scenes from the rally last night, the president deciding he was going to go forward with this, you don't see a lot of masks there, do you, people inches from each other, shoulder to shoulder, four, five, six, seven hours on end. the pre

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ashish jha warning the u.s.ee 100,000 coronavirus deaths by september and it comes as a dozen states have seen increase in hospitalizations since memorial day weekend. nick watt is out front. >> reporter: this morning miami's beaches reopened. new jersey up to 100 people can now gather outdoors. and this weekend, nascar will allow some fans back in the stands. nationally, our daily new case count is falling, but is the devil in the detail? >> if you're going to get into trouble, you'll see it in the numbers. you'll see them starting to increase. and as we sit here today, states are getting into trouble. >> reporter: hospitalizations are up in at least a dozen states since memorial day and in 19 states the average daily new case count is rising as is concern that this coronavirus is making a come back. >> we're going to get another 100,000 deaths by september. that's what we have to try to prevent. and we really do have to try to figure out how to bring the case loads down from the scary levels in some states. >>

a ashish jha. dr. jha, this is how i thought we would do this. optimist here and throw out a number of optimistic scenarios about what we're hearing and then i'll hear your response. the first optimistic scenario is even though we're seeing rates of growth that are very high, the overall levels are still very low. we're not dealing with levels like what we saw in the new york outbreak. what do you think of that? >> so, chris, thanks for having me on. i like that idea. it's true that we're not where new york was. but the problem of exponential growth is once it starts growing and gets momentum, it becomes very hard to slow down and stop. and so the trend here is very concerning. and we can reach very high levels very quickly, if we don't begin to head this off. >> the other -- so the other idea is that when we saw the real -- the crazy levels of exponential growth, right, when this thing went through wuhan, lombardy, and new york, maybe the three worst outbreaks in the world, maybe madrid as well, you didn't have any real social distancing in plac

. >> so, you know, doctor ashish jha, i know you know him, director of the global harvard health instituted that we could see another 100,000 deaths by the end of the summer. that would be, you know -- you have the surge, right? the epidemic. everything was shut down. you had 100 deaths in that time. he's saying in about the same amount of time, you could have the same amount of death. that's a pretty damning thing to say. do you think that that's possible? >> anyone who predicts what's going to happen with this virus more than a few weeks out really doesn't know much about this virus. what we can say and what we released today is unfort nately and unevidently within a month there will be deaths within u.s. that's from the people already infected. what we do know is that models should change what we do. models aren't about predicting how many people are going to die like some gruesome lottery. models are about saying if we do this, we can do better. three w's, wear a mask, wash your hands, and watch your distance. if we can do those things, we can reduce the spread. and the specific study

ashish jha told the newshour last week... >> we know there's a huge health and psychological cost of the economic shutdown. the point here is, if we hadn't done that, we would have had 60 million more infections, probably a half-a-million more deaths. >> reporter: dr. katz's response? >> there's no question, if you lock everyone in place away from one other and the virus, nobody gets sick. it works as long as you keep doing it. the minute you release the clamps, you're in hot water. >> reporter: meanwhile, says katz, not everyone is equally vulnerable. >> overwhelmingly, hospitalizations, i.c.u. use, ventilator use, and death concentrated among people who were both old and with a significant burden of chronic disease. in my home state of connecticut, about 60% of the total covid mortality is just among nursing home residents. >> reporter: economist daron acemoglu has studied the data. >> if you look at the mortality rate of over-65-year-olds, it's about 60 times as high as the mortality rates of those between 20 and 50. those over 75 have 100 times the rates of those in the younger a

ashish jha. doctor, good morning to you.'m sure you heard the hhs secretary alex azar's warning, quote, the window is closing for us to take action and get this under control. do you agree and what needs to be done right now? >> good morning. thank you for having me on. i do agree with secretary azar. the window here is very narrow. this is something we've known about the virus. if you fall behind as we have, then you've got to act quickly and aggressively. i think across all these states, we just can't have bars -- i'm not sure we can even run restaurants where people are seated indoors, nightclubs. anything that gathers people indoors i think at this moment is way too risky and has to be dialed back. >> and what do you attribute this rise to. some people talk about the memorial day crowds. some people wonder if the protests will lead to more virus cases spiking. the lack of wearing masks uniformly. what do you think is behind it? >> so i think it's a combination of all of the things. if we think about the things that are r

ashish jha. he's the director of the harvard global health institute.nk you for joining us this morning. we heard matt report cases rising now in 23 states, steep spikes in several of those states. what does this tell you right now about where the pandemic is heading? >> yeah, good morning. so thanks for having me on. it's very concerning, though not completely surprising. we know that a lot of states opened up before the number of cases had really declined and opened up too quickly without good safeguards in and so we are seeing the spike in cases and it's worth remembering that we're still quite early in the pandemic. we have a long way to go and we really have to put in the kind of measures that will keep us safe over the next 12 or 18 months before the pandemic is over. >> so to put a point on this, this is still the first wave? >> it is very much still the first wave. and, you know, for some states like new york and new jersey that were hit hard, they're over that first wave. but for a large chunk of the country they're really going through the fir

ashish jha predicted this. >> if we just stay flat, if we don't have any more spikes all summer and justy flat, we'll continue to have 800 to 1,000 people dying every day. that's about 25,000 to 30,000 a month. and over the next three months we will cross the 200,000 mark. >> joining us now is dr. mario ramirez, an emergency physician and managing director of opportunity labs. he's also the former pandemic and emerging threats kwoo s coor in the office of global affairs at the u.s. department of health and human services. thank you for being with us. my executive producer was trying to put that 800 number into perspective, and he was saying that's six triangle -- summertime has come. we've seen the protest. there's a desire to get out and to act as if this pandemic is not still living among us or to try and live with it. but can you put things into perspective for us when we are still having the rate of death that is that high in this country and what it would mean to hit a 200,000 mark. hit the 200,000 mark later in the summer. >> well, you're right, katy. what makes this problem so dif