observation that brad mentioned, the 20th century when you look at what happened over several centuries - assumeg the proxy indicators are accurate and they are probably close - is that we developed infor structure and so forth during a period when the delivery was maybe higher than the long-term average. there's a real need to understand what the natural system is or sort of has the capacity to do and the way to do that is not just from the instrumental record. it's too short. unfortunately, the climate has these natural fluctuations that will be with us that allows for mega droughts. i don't know that it's come up but there's evidence in the california proxy record in medieval times, two periods of extremely dry climate in at least, the california and nevada region - fit occurred today would totally reset the way we all sort of think about,hydrology, i think. [inaudible] no. your not listening to what the models are telling us. they are telling us there still is the range of natural variability in precipitation eventhough temperature is changing remarkably. evidently that did not get through. b