the assumptions that are adopted, the demographic assumptions will be used for the next five valuations from 2020 through 2024. at this point our proposed changes are largely refinance of existing assumptions. we have a lot of refinements but no major changes. the first things we look at when we are starting a demographic study is the impact of the assumptions and the demographic measurements since the last assumptions were implemented. and in this chart it shows the variety of assumptions in the experience over the last four valuations. i think the first thing i want to point out to you is the y axis. we were within basely plus or minus .6% in the projection of the actuarial liability during this period. that is a fairly narrow range. we certainly like to predict your investment returns within that range, and so it supports to make minor changes to the assumption. there is a quick summary of the different categories of assumptions with the most important changes in the categories and the estimated impact on the contribution rate. and there are two components to the salary increases and

what's the assumption there? is it because the value of properties going down that we're getting lessor is it really the volume of things that are being shown? is it both the residential versus the commercial properties that is going down or i just wonder what your assumptions are? >> it depends on the sales price of properties and what is really driving the shape of the transfer tax losses in the last four months and we're expecting to continue in the year ahead although in a lesser level. it has to do with transactions and it's less about value what is selling and substantially fewer transactions happening. so, and this is consistent with what we saw in the last two recessions and when recessions began and occurred, there's less interest in buying and selling of property by larger corporations, by reits and others that drive this market. and so, that is really what's driving it here. i can provide some details if you are interested that would show you the exact amount that is assumed driven by volume versus val

what an appraiser would base a fair market assumption on. those are the groundings that were established early on in 2015. the 33 percent that would be considered part of the fair market value assumption. >> : i think there's a policy decision, that's one thing. i'm not seeing there would be-3m required under prop k. the code allows for pu c to sell at less than that. it's explicit the administrative code on costs. it can be cold for less than the fair market value. i'm trying to get clarity. i understand there's a policy choice, charge the money, sell the property, or discount that and sell more affordable units. i'm not seeing what the legal restriction of 218 would be to do with making that policy choice. >> : i'll turn it over to our city attorney. i'll invite the po c to contribute as well. >> : deputy city attorney. >> : supervisor preston. thank you for the question. there are charter and state restrictions that the state get fair market value s. the ordinary administrative codes conveyed for less than fair market value is restricted

over actuarial assumption. extort mary -- extraordinary. we are just extending out and setting up. i get messages from a lot of listeners and viewers that trust me. --re's never meant plan listeners and viewers, and trust me, there is no retirement plan. dow futures up 45. the vix to me is a huge story, with a 21 40. jon ferro has been great on on small-cap,tion international to domestic stocks. all i can tell you is maybe home depot, maybe walmart are the new faang stocks of the future. just terrific numbers there as well. dollar weaker. w.e euro, $1.1905, wo this is bloomberg on radio, on television. stay with us. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika. bernie sanders all but begged his supporters to vote for a joe biden last night. spoke on opening night of the democratic national convention. sen. sanders: if donald trump gets elected come out of the progress we have made will be in jeopardy. at its most basic, this election is about preserving our democracy. ritika: senders acknowledged that bidens he

the assumption is that i am a token and i don't care about people in the black community. and that i stay silent when injustice is happening. none of those things are true. first of all, we need to clarify that. second of all, what i believe is you say i am special, i am this, i am that. the thing about it is i am not. ,i am talented and good at what i do, but i'm not special. there is no reason anybody in america couldn't do what i have done. i joined the military i served , for five years. i risked my life overseas to get the opportunities i have today. there is no reason anybody in america cannot do that or make those same choices. when you talk about these injustices, that boils down to choices. you made another assumption that i somehow walk down the street every day afraid of getting harassed by the police or have somehow had a negative experience with police in my life.

[laughter] francine: is that on the assumption that we get a vaccine? we get back to something that looks more like our old lives? two years or three years or will we have permanent changes to the way we live? chris: i think the answer is yes to both those questions. we are a little more pessimistic on the vaccine than the market consensus. it is tough to do a vaccine. -- producingd step 300 million batches of it. the vaccine right now has to be -300 degrees celsius right now. that is a huge logistic. we think the world is permanently changed, not necessarily in bad ways but in ways that favor these margin protectors, the online delivery folks, digital payment folks. so we just greatly accelerated the change to the new place we were headed towards in the first place. francine: by two years, three years? and what do you do with the big tech companies? does amazon become so big that, at some point, they want to break it up? chris: yes, of course, that is the real risk. i am old enough to remember and having owned microsoft in the 1990's when the governmen

back for the department of public-health and the city wide covid budget we're making some assumptions and these are out of the controllers office and some assumptions about what we will be able toll draw for reimbursement for this program through fema and through the federal legislation that has been passed so far to help with reimbursement for expenses related to covid. you can see on the cot um of the right, how much is leftover after we assumed the seem a reimbursement and i'll show you the cares act on the next page but it's a large program. couple of the biggest categories, as you can see, looking at that first new mer i canainumerous numericalcontract. our contact traceing and case investigation programs and testing as you have just been discussioning will be a and we also have hospital surgery, support for the hotels and support for our outbreak programs and all of those and grouping categories. so, that is a very high level description of what is in our budget and we're happy to talk in more detail about that or take questions on it. i will say that we have been very intention

that the brain is a computer but there's no evidence for that and i think it's a it's a poor assumption for example it assumes that each neuron is a simple on off switch yes or no but a single cell neurons or cells in a single cell like a paramecium swims around finds through defines a mate has sex can learn it escapes from a capillary tube faster and faster it's intelligent it may not be conscious but it's intelligent so if a single paramecium or even an amoeba which can solve problems can be that intelligent why should we think that a neuron is just a one or is 0 so i think we need to go deeper inside the neuron she to another level and figure out how the paramecium does it and that turns out to be using structures called microtubules inside all cells including brain cells neurons that are capable it seems a processing information and maybe quantum computers and we're going to get to my car to phyllis but before i have just a couple of questions because since you're setting consciousness i want to understand from what side you're sort of starting to beginning to learn it because scien

on those assumptions.ve already been doing whatever it takes, pushing over the limits of conventional monetary policy. when you get a pandemic like this and potentially will have uncertainty over major events like the tokyo olympics, what does that due to to the inflationary mindset, given it took so long for japan to get out of inflation? visit set them back further? -- does it set them back even further? professor ito: it is certainly heartbreaking to see the tokyo games postponed by a year, and even cure's event -- and even event is in doubt if the pandemic continues like this until next year. again, there are assumptions that we will get over this pandemic soon, by developing vaccines and medical treatments. so admitted, maybe the governor's prediction, it is not only boj, it is other central banks as well, projecting recovery. there are recoveries projected optimistic on the side of the wide range of uncertainty. kathleen: it seemed like former fed chair janet yellen was fairly bold in her comments to

back for the department of public-health and the city wide covid budget we're making some assumptions and these are out of the controllers office and some assumptions about what we will be able toll draw for reimbursement for this program through fema and through the federal legislation that has been passed so far to help with reimbursement for expenses related to covid. you can see on the cot um of the right, how much is leftover after we assumed the seem a reimbursement and i'll show you the cares act on the next page but it's a large program. couple of the biggest categories, as you can see, looking at that first new mer i canainumerous numericalcontract. our contact traceing and case investigation programs and testing as you have just been discussioning will be a and we also have hospital surgery, support for the hotels and support for our outbreak programs and all of those and grouping categories. so, that is a very high level description of what is in our budget and we're happy to talk in more detail about that or take questions on it. i will say that we have been very intention

it starts with the assumption the only way is through racial lines. actually and it is the narrative to assume the behavior to a black that with every the man what happened to him happens to black people all the time. essentially they have left things the violent encounter. the media has run with the narrative that has a very real pushback with the little skepticism and that the law enforcement is at the root in america. so now we find ourselves with a conversation about policing. to abolish president, police and legislation in congress to make it easier to prosecute tops and fire them and with those are radicals with entire neighborhoods of a major city like seattle and those precincts that have been abandoned commentators who not only make excuses for the rioting and looting but sharing to a larger extent. and that's the point of this event today inviting panelists to talk about that particularly interested in what they have to say and whose name all of this is happening as a young man of color. they are supposed to be the biggest beneficiary of wha

back for the department of public-health and the city wide covid budget we're making some assumptions and these are out of the controllers office and some assumptions about what we will be able toll draw for reimbursement for this program through fema and through the federal legislation that has been passed so far to help with reimbursement for expenses related to covid. you can see on the cot um of the right, how much is leftover after we assumed the seem a reimbursement and i'll show you the cares act on the next page but it's a large program. couple of the biggest categories, as you can see, looking at that first new mer i canainumerous numericalcontract. our contact traceing and case investigation programs and testing as you have just been discussioning will be a and we also have hospital surgery, support for the hotels and support for our outbreak programs and all of those and grouping categories. so, that is a very high level description of what is in our budget and we're happy to talk in more detail about that or take questions on it. i will say that we have been very intention

so there's a bunch of assumptions written into it but it's to come up with a point solution.hat you are talking about is different. it's not a point solution that's more of a bottom-up attempt to improve mission outcome to establish missions that we think are important and here's outcomes we want to have happen and a range of environments in which those outcomes are needed comes to china, the south china sea, baltic or something. >> guest: that is exactly right. you said it very well. unless they are actually focusing on kind of the joint outcome that we are trying to achieve, w we will end up buyina bunch of things that may or may not achieve those outcomes and i think part of my problem in the requirements process, "-close-double-quote is the hubris that is weak into its 30 years post-cold war. but i don't think that is going to hold up for us in the future. if i had to let my own requirements i had the best flip phone in america right now. we've got to get beyond this idea that a citizen to defend the defense establishment ar orn the department of defense there are no good

philippa: for more on the banks assumption that there will be no second wave -- that is what it is basingurrent figures on -- here is our economic correspondent. >> he is banking on the idea that we will perhaps only see local restrictions if there is a spike in b cases. ourgest fear is that we see more widespread infections. that will in fact -- affect employment and outlook. this is unprecedented territory it has never been triedefore here. it is very risky, and the bankay isg that is why we don't want to go there yet. we all know tools can be useful but y have to treat them prortionately. philippa: a man believed to be aarmed with gun is holding people hostage in a bank in the north of france. people are urging people in the town to stay clear of the bank in the city center. a police spokesperson says the hoage taker is a 34-year-old man. he initially took six hostages. four have been released. narrator: ennding for this prtion of this program is provided by... language specialists teaching spanish, french and more. raymond james. foundation. by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; p

but we did it with a lot of racial assumptions put in place and with a lot of political kprcompromises that were nels. >> when i think of teaching history to college students and stories of women who may -- they may have wanted the vote but wo. soledad: even though they were not working for themselves they re inspired to keep going in the face of maybe no opportunity at all. >> absolutely. so they are organizing and doing local level things and making sure that people are not languishing in jails. there's power in all of these places that is outside of the vote. i think this is what this anniversary can remind us of. when people are disenfranchised it doesn't mean they lose a sense of their power. soledad: two native women are in congress but you could say only two native women are in congress. >> if you look at voting rights restrictions falling in the 1960's having two native women going into congress at the same time deb holland and sher it is a huge inspiration to see there was this beautiful image of new chair and this momentous moment to see a native woman taking that role within

the question is based on assumption yes of course but i'm asking you is this something that you think could work in nigeria in cannes or even in africa it will work somewhere and it will not work somewhere. that. is in line with their culture and believe will accept and those that see it as negative will reject it won't we were able to do one thing that it's empower and create awareness and 1000 against hate them education because this side people that i give in but so if you give them a line is that if you need this is the point is that will happen if there is a population crisis in the country so it's not for you to type of the number of children that you're going to be given back to you can talk to the husband look i'm not able to get my to because of i'm not ready to go but because of my health condition because you can enlighten them even to people in new areas and once and that is my take so information for you is what would they mum is refusing but i'm not going to stay there because i don't want to start a war i wonder what do you think it's been a very exciting debate here in

the assumptions they bring two women candidates must be ex or why, etc. in the real world, it is very difficult to see any evidence that there is an advantage, or i think this is important, a disadvantage to being a female candidate. there doesn't seem to be a bump either way. if there is a disadvantage, it's mostly for republican women, because we tend to stereotype women as more liberal and more collaborative. to the extent that that will not fly very well with the republican constituents. because they are not liberal. ideological purity is an important thing. on the republican side. that may help them a little. but even that is not enormous. it doesn't mean that there is not bias. when i was in graduate school we will talk about, if women run, women win. that seems to be true. if they run, they are more likely to win and men are. so we talk about how we could get more women to run. research since has shown that when women run their equally likely to win, but it seems because they are dramatically overqualified. the women who run have more qualification

quite often the wrong assumption is that the state has undertaken effective due diligence legal review and due diligence commercial 2 generations of the counter party that seems not to be often the case however when it comes to the award of the arbitrators. the virtue perceived virtue of arbitration is that it's not like a court process which awards thanks to a convention of $958.00 are subject to very limited grounds of challenge when they're taking to states for enforcement and the ground that i understand that nigeria is invoking before the english crooks is known as public policy they're suggesting that the contract was tainted by fraud and corruption to establish that they would need fairly strong evidence for the english court to conclude that that was in fact the case if they were able to establish that then the english court would not countenance involvement and could could the company seek to perhaps seize assets in the united states how would that work for instance ordinarily once an hour to order has been issued there is a limited period of time for that award to be challeng

i don't think that's an assumption that should be believed. we can't assume children are immune. we can't assume children aren't going to be carrying the virus. we need to be careful and wear masks. encourage children to wear a mask. and model good mask wearing behavior for children. wash hands, clean high touched areas often. and really try to practice social distance as much as possible. which is limited for small children. >> what would you say to grandparents of 5 year-olds and 4 year-olds at what are the findings telling them? >> to be careful. i think anyone that spends time around a kid in winter knows they might up with a cold from their grandchild. with coronavirus being so deadly in the older population, they need to be especially careful now. and try to distance as much as possible. at least until we have more data on the transmission from children. >> what about a 40 year-old public schoolteacher in a classroom with 30 of the kids? >> again, a lot of local rates of transmission will come into play. and probability that one of the children will be infected. but protect

now this is the assumption, however, it is not true. eps did a feasibility memo for the developers and it shows that they are expecting to get seventy nine point five million in state grants. why the cost for the developers share of three hundred sixty three affordable units will cost one hundred twelve point five million dollars. essentiallythey are only paying for a small proportion of the affordable units. once again it's privatization exam. far from the market rate units subsidizing units. public zoning needs to be retained. the only thing that public zoning needs to be changed to an sud is deprivatization. >> : send it along so developers won't develop it at all or negotiate the deal. the city applies for state grants to cover the cost for infrastructure. 5% more on average for the low income units and 10% on the moderate income units. it sets up segregation in terms of the development. so the developer can maximize its profits. pupublic land should stay in public control. this creates a guarantee that the affordable housing stays

and bias when there's no assumptions and bias when you look at how the national security organs of the central people's government operate when they're in on the mainland i mean we're not talking about mainland we're talking about one country 2 systems let's come back to hong kong. it doesn't look as though it's one country 2 systems that have really international security organs have an imposing their security laws on hong kong it doesn't look like 2 systems looks like one country one system if you do that they are an echoing they are trying to enact a hong kong specific version which is consistent with our common law systems if they just wish to impose a mansion impose china's system on us they could just apply this to us china's national security law but they are not doing this they are now consulting hong kong experts about and in. drafting a hong kong specific version for us to take account of our separate systems. one of the things you said recently in your article was that beijing has a tacit understanding that the new law needs to be drafted in a way that's consistent with comm

of guilt or the assumption of innocence very neat if you go through me goes on any given day anywhere in the united states is not soley rests with one elected official and i think most after it's in quite frankly any american regrowth of their ethnic background is they're going to look at their small business owners they're you know they're trying to get back to work as you get past this endemic they're trying to get their lives back and there's this small fractional element that wants to constantly disrupt these things ok actually some of the 1st meeting is taking place in some of these less less fortunate aber hoods and there are strong small businesses the minority you know would go about let's course that 19 pandey mckay is everywhere said let's hear from the president on health the cost of the biden shutdown would be measured in increased drug overdoses depression alcohol addiction suicides heart attacks economic devastation job loss and much more joe biden's plan is not a solution to the virus but rather it's a surrender to the virus to save as many lives as possible we are focu

assumptions about how things are going to go forward i mean i do think it's contingent and i agree with you completely that this this shutdown water was like a light switch shutting off the economy or a large chunks of it that's detrimental to all of us but i think turning the light switch back on doesn't throw the power back on the way it wasn't january but our trip on earth through this process begun small banks big and small will figure out the ways to serve consumers and brings a lot of market as long as government doesn't get in the way this market process i think was recovering relatively well. i was the great recession i agree completely there was crony bailouts during the great recession for those political elites and those connected but that's largely washed out of the system now we're going forward rather productively and that's what i'd expect to happen if we go back to making you know a really didn't have to go to a heartbreak and after that heartbreak in your discussion and economic recovery. i know team no crowd. no shots. actually helps because. when the well's track the

so the assumption is congress is going to do something.re not giving any signal that it's imminent and that is a real problem for recovery harder for them to do something when they've already gone home. christine romans, thank you very much. >>> the new projections suggest $22,000 americans could die from the coronavirus before the end of the summer and the nation's top infectious disease doctor says he's not pleased, understandably, with how things are going in the country. ...to soccer practices... ...and new adventures. you hope the more you give the less they'll miss. but even if your teen was vaccinated against meningitis in the past... they may be missing vaccination for meningitis b. let's help protect them together. because missing menb vaccination could mean missing out on a whole lot more. ask your doctor if your teen is missing meningitis b vaccination. an army family who is always at the ready. so when they got a little surprise... two!? ...they didn't panic. they got a bigger car for their soon-to-be-bigger family. after shopp

the assumption had been made that if we had built the bomb, if we had the bomb, we would use the bomb in order to bring the war to an end, but i think from the perspective we have now that the atomic bomb, you know, is different, essentially different, from general weapon, that is something we have with hindsight. for truman and his advisers in the summer of 1945, i do not think that was as clear to them that the atomic bomb was fundamentally different from conventional bombings, and we had already essentially wiped out an enormous percentage of japan's urban areas with conventional bombing at incendiary rates. so using the atomic bomb, in their view at that time, did not seem like sort of a break or departure from what they had been doing already. it is really with hindsight that we understand that webbing to be something basically different, in a different category. host: is it true when harry truman assumed the presidency in 1940 fiveeath that, one, harry truman did not know anything about the manhattan project, and two, how did he learn about it in the space of less than four shor

. >> in order to buy the state's case, you have to make assumption upon assumption upon assumption.ystem is about. >> how did i do it? how on earth did not one single drop of blood get on my clothing or anything like that? >> or in your car which was ripped apart. >> right. i agreed to let them look. get what you want. i knew i was innocent. >> the defense also tore into the credibility of the state's star witness, george solomon saying it was ridiculous to think tim would get an invitation to spend the night with him after blurting out a murder conviction. >> i killed somebody just now. oh, really? let's go see my wife and kids. no way. >> a confident tim permentor decided to speak directly to the jury. he took the stand in his own defense. >> the attitude was look, you have to get up here and talk to these people. >> how do you remember him on the stand? >> i think he was calm. i think he answered the questions as best he could. very simply. i think very completely. we felt we had made a showing that the state had not met the burden of proof beyond a reasonable doubt. >> mike wait

yeah i mean in the at me in said yes it makes you kind of request question again so many assumptions here you know ben you know the thought of just sending out checks to individuals you know 1500 dollars and you know $2500.00 for a family i mean if someone suggested that to me to with a 2 and 3 months ago my instinct would be in no i mean use the tax code ok giving money is something i don't really like doing now i've had a conversion because i see all of these people massive number of people a growing number of people they need cash in their pocket just to reboot even if it's a one time thing which i still think is very small here i mean i'm just trying to point out how i have changed during this crisis because something that i would have not would have been very not agreeable with now i'm thinking you need to do more of it because you know we in for we're getting up when we have to get on the right foot instead of having an elbow him probably be it you but it's certainly not going to be a v. it's certainly not going to be a be a people can't consume go ahead ben well it's certainly