confirm the assumptions. let's move to the next slide. before we get into the assumptions, we just wanted to give you a preliminary update on where the plan is, the preliminary investment returns this year were about 4.6%. that follows in 2022. we had negative returns, but 2021 we had significantly positive returns. we for calculating contributions, we smooth the returns over a 5 year period, so we are still recognizing part of that 2021 return, and so contribution rates are still trending downward because that is the overriding piece being recognized. the others are still close, even though they are actuarially losses, they were smaller. let's move to the next slide. this is just a prileminary update using just the preliminary asset information, and comparing to our prior projections, so the left side is showing the gray bars are the projection of the liability and the green and teal lines are the assets and funded ratio on top. on the right hand side, we have the member contribution rates, estimated after c

here are some of the assumptions we make. we only account for current policies and we are looking at policies that are legally enforceable. we don't model aspirations or targets unless there is a legally enforceable policy that backs it up. we look at evolutionary reads of technological change based on recent history and we don't consider sweeping changes in consumer preferences are major geopolitical events that could produce durable change and shift the trajectory of the system. it's certainly possible those things can happen. it's entirely possible we could get new policies and there could be unforeseen geopolitical events or technology breakthroughs we don't model and that's exactly why you should not think of the ieo as a forecast. we are trying to do something different here. we are providing a set of policy neutral baselines that focus on the current trajectory of the energy system. i think that provides the really useful point of reference for decision-makers against which they can judge future actions and development

we all make different assumptions so you get this array of outcomes. we all get surprised by certain things, , right? >> right. okay. we are running up against our time window. i just want to say, like we are very, very pleased you talked about this today. it's an interesting cut in some parts provocative set of results that you have found. i think it's going to really inform the conversation not just here in washington but around the world, so thank you to you joe and angelina. and also those who are doing online don't know but many of the eia subject matter expert analysts have come today for what is unfortunately the lamest party that i can possibly imagine. but you know i am pleased to extend appreciation and hard work and your dedication as a public servant. thank you all. [applause] and i wish you well. everybody to ensure in person as well as online, colleagues, we are signing off and hope to see you next time you're at csis. [applause] >>he radio and television correspondents' association is hostingts annual dinner this evening to award travel

here are some of the assumptions we have made.ly account for current policies and we are looking at policies that are legally enforceable, right, we don't model aspirations or targets unless there's a legally enforceable policy that backs -- backs it up. second, we look at evolutionary rates of technological change that are based on recent history and then third, we don't consider sweeping changes and consumer preferences or major geopolitical event that is can produce change or shift trajectory of the system. now, it's certainly possible that those things can happen, entirely policy, we could get newsi policies, there could be unforeseeable events that we don't model and that's exactly why you should not think of the ieo as a forecast. we're trying to do something here. what we are doing is providing a set of policy neutral baselines that focus on the current trajectory of the energy system and i think that that actually provides a really useful point of reference for decision-makers against they canhi judge future acts and devel

up to and including the week of the 9th, the assumption was, you are suggesting there was some great debate. the point is there wasn't. there was an assumption across government, across the cabinet office department of health and sage, that lockdown was impossible in a western country, any way we didn't have the all of tinges that you needed in place to actual will do it, you didn't have test and trace and what not you would need to have afterwards, that vaccines were almost definitely not going to have any impact at least in 2020 and possibly never, so the whole point was, that up to and including the week of the 9th, the debate you keep referring to, there wasn't a debate, that was the whole problem, there wasn't a debate about the fundamental assumptions underlying plan a, there wasn't a debate until me and others started to i saying hang on a second, if you actually fall law the logic of what plan a is it will be a catastrophe —— follow. and we have to ask these questions and consider an alternative plan b, but before that, there was no debate about this, it was just assumed. the

reducing — spread over, the assumption is. reducing that _ spread over, the assumption is.ent that can be made - reducing that number might be one argument that can be made and - reducing that number might be one i argument that can be made and again secondly— argument that can be made and again secondly some — argument that can be made and again secondly some kind _ argument that can be made and again secondly some kind of _ argument that can be made and again secondly some kind of transfer. - argument that can be made and again secondly some kind of transfer. tit - secondly some kind of transfer. final fall in our last minutes because all the while this is been going on around antony blinken, and his shuttle diplomacy, you now have the four minister of iran in lebanon. the four minister of iran in lebanon-— the four minister of iran in lebanon. , ., ., lebanon. he is in a tort rallying su ort lebanon. he is in a tort rallying support for— lebanon. he is in a tort rallying support for hamas _ lebanon. he is in a tort rallying support for hamas and - lebanon. he is in a tor

the assumption that that was a permanent shift is a very questionable assumption. that was a temporary shift because of temporary developments that were horrible. the idea that the arab world as a whole had forgotten about the palestinians was never true and it was never true the palestinians had forgotten. some of these assumptions, that assumption unfortunately has let us down the path with very problematic policies. host: this is carl in florida, democrats line. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i'm very interested in what you have to say today. i would like to know, is there any chance there is a small group of palestinians within gaza that may be willing to ally themselves with israelis after this terror attack by hamas in order to throw hamas or eliminate hamas from gaza so that palestinians may have a better chance of getting the two state solution? i will hang up and listen to your answer. thank you very much. guest: hamas has had a very brutal rain in gaza. the opportunity for opposition groups opposed to hamas emerging have not really ex

an assumption, everything is in order, belt, i know that this is not so, this is a tummy, but i don’, bench, alas, but your team gave three wrong answers, karina, in this round you are the one building, you have 30 seconds to build a structure of three elements, please hurry up, 30 seconds for it you can put something on it too after of this i will leave the opposing team and you will answer, and how easily the guys from liberum will calmly answer will depend on how you build your tower now, well, that’s good, what is the name of a network of several thousand kilometers from stone cubes created to determine the parameters of the earth? which passes through belarus is included in the unesco world heritage list, passes through belarus is included in the unesco list, now by the way there are only a few of them left, what is it? 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, liber, anya, tell me your answer, shores, let it be... shores karina, i don’t have anything, or just nothing, nothing, just nothing, okay, anton, maybe maybe this is the m1 highway, the m1 highway, yes, the address is moscow, stone cubes, well, sto

., ., :, , assumptions.s. it was at around this time that we may hear _ assumptions. it was at around this time that we may hear more - assumptions. it was at around this j time that we may hear more detail later today, that dominic cummings was demanding to see the plans, calling particularly for the department of health to provide these pandemic plans and that everyone had spoken so much. were you aware that he was making those inquiries, request, demand? yes. you aware that he was making those inquiries, request, demand?- inquiries, request, demand? yes, i was, ithink— inquiries, request, demand? yes, i was. l think at— inquiries, request, demand? yes, i was, i think at that _ inquiries, request, demand? yes, i was, i think at that particular- inquiries, request, demand? yes, i was, i think at that particular time | was, i think at that particular time there was probably only dominic who was forcefully being agitated and kicking the tyres robustly i don't think he got a great deal of information back if i

, purely an assumption, everything is fine, the belt, i know that this is not so, it’s a tummy, but iuild a structure of three elements. hurry up, please, 30 seconds for three elements, it is extremely dynamic, good, you can put something on it too , after that i will go to the opposing team and you will be in charge, and how much you build your tower will depend on how much easy, calm, the guys from liberum will answer, so, well, that’s good, what is the name of the network of several thousand kilometers of stone cubes created to determine the parameters of the land that passes through belarus is included in the unesco world heritage list, passes through belarus is included in the unesco list. by the way, there are only a few of them left now, what is it? 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, liberum. anya, tell me your answer. shores, let there be shores, karina, well, something, well, or just nothing, nothing , just nothing, okay, anton, maybe this is the m1 highway, m1 highway, yes, drest moscow, stone cubes, well, stone ones, yes, arc, struvs, have you heard of this, arc struvs, there really aren’t man

james: glenn, see if i am right with my assumption here.assumption is that there sending this armada because they can't use their military bases and airbase in doha and the naval base in bahrain because of the circumstances right now is that correct? guest: partially correct. it certainly would a complicating factor to use forces out of doha, given qatar's relationship with hamas and the muslim brotherhood. however, i do not think that is a merry reason. i believe as the first speaker said, clearly, to me, the primary objective is deterrence, dissuasion. the buildup is not to enable the israelis to act, but rather, to keep conflict from spreading,, original or even robert moore. i think -- becoming an even broader war. i think most arab governments -- more relevant to signals from countries, understand that and they don't want to see the conflict and tonight the accepting of the u.s. deployment. what we call the arab strait is another matter and muslims will be dissatisfied and angry and what they all and characterize provocation. but to me

in the center of the icon of the assumption there is always a most pure virgin, who is located on theserene. also, most often, the body itself is depicted a little ephemeral, as if slightly transparent, and this artistic device hints at the resurrection of the virgin mary, which happened on the third day after the dormition. at the head of the head are the apostles whom the mother of god wanted to see, and who, by the will of the holy spirit , did so. the patronal feast of the cathedral of the city of molodechno, of course, is august 28 - the day of the dormition of the blessed virgin mary. on this day the temple is especially solemn. believers often call this holiday the second easter, it is so important in the church calendar. moreover, it is this event that most churches in russia in belarus are dedicated to. cathedral in molodech. one of them. the cathedral in honor of the dormition of the blessed virgin mary is a youthful heart, as local residents believe. they often admire it on the way to work or school. the grace of god is especially felt in the temple. after praying in church

that we celebrate this day at the relics of the saint in the main temple of all russia. in the assumptionathedral of the moscow kremlin, glorifying st. peter, we ask for his prayers. today our fatherland has entered a difficult time, a time of trials, the enemy of the family human, but the enemy of russia has brought the state of affairs to such a nightmare that again brother raises enmity against brother, organic unified ties between the north and south of russia, between the modern russian federation and ukraine, but how can one not grieve about this and ask the lord to stop it madness, to stop this hostility, so that again, with one mouth, one heart, we, as one people, can. the most blessed name of god and the saints, one of whom is the most important for all of us is st. peter, metropolitan of kiev, moscow of all rus'. through his prayers, we will once again ask that our russian land be preserved in unity , in spiritual strength, in like-mindedness, so that our church can overcome the schisms and divisions generated by political differences of opinion and conflicts, and so that our pe

so i will be very concerned about examining prior assumptions. about the capabilities of his bowler, the who these are rocky, she and militia, and others. i think, you know, clearly the iranians have helped them develop capabilities. they've given them all sorts of different hardware and missiles. and so at this, this point, we're still in the early stages of this conflict, we're hoping to keep it to a low boil. it's best to be in a defensive pastor, glen. we've also seen a tax in syria and iraq. they're all still based in the rock, 2500 us troops and in syria, there are not even 100 us troops, but also a lot of military contract is. i mean, i think some people to start with will be quite surprised. there are so many us troops still in iraq and syria. what are they doing, as well as multiple conditions. one of course is to continue to observe and dried and stopped and isis, or jihad, as the groups and elements from the conducting, the terrorist operations. and these stabilizing things and other is to help their try to keep the governments in plac

my assumption is, but they sending this big a mazda, because they come to use the military bases of a base in the hall and the naval base in ball rain because of the circumstances right now. does that seem correct to you personally? correct. uh, it certainly would be a complicating factor to use forces out of doha, given the cut her, his relationship with hamas and the muslim brotherhood. however, i don't think that's really the primary reason i think as i believe it's calling, the 1st speaker said clearly to me, the primary objective is to tourist the suasion. the build up is not really to enable the israelis to act, but rather to keep the conflict from spreading, becoming a regional or even broader war. and i think that most of we call them arrow governments, but they're in this instance, is more relevant to say muslim countries understand that and, and don't want to see the conflict, the generalized and so really are accepting of the us deployment. now, the, what we call the arab street is another matter and, but as long as of course, we'll be dissatisfied and angered by what think

what are versions of the assumption?ept the answer stone, if the stone turns out to be the correct answer, you earn five points, if not, come out here and build tower, you build only when you voice versions, well and if you are not sure and don’t know what we are talking about, you have leading questions , questions that i can answer, yes, no, i don’t know, thereby helping you, suppose it’s edible, i answer yes, that’s important here . i’m leaving for the opposing team, that is, even if you know what it’s about, you need to wait until someone comes to your team, either 10 minutes for everything - about everything for our third round, or until the tower collapses, the tower falls, the team that dropped the tower loses there will be no more opportunities to win back all the points earned, with this we wave to each other, i wish you good luck, show yourself in all your glory , we have the third decisive round, show tower, time has passed , here is the first question, mark wrote: you can turn into an archangel, a husband, a

some of these assumption lead l us down the path of bad policy. >> karl in florida, democrat. >> good morning. mr. parsey, i am interested in what you have to say today, is there a chance there is a small group of palestinians within gaza be willing to ally themselves with the israelis after this terror attack by hamas in order to throw hamas or eliminate hamas from gaza so that palestinians may have a better chance of getting two state solution, i'll hang up and listen to youran answer. >> thank you, so much hamas has had a very brutal reign in gaza, opportunity for opization groups opposed to hamas have not existed. and there has been some attempt and brutal oppression by hamas, it likely that they would besidesly with israel against hamas, that is presuming it just the existence of hamas which has been the problem. right now the israelis are bombing the west bank, hamas does not exist and previous months, most of the violence wast in west bank, where israeli settlers killing different palestinians. hamas was not creationed until 1980s, decades after the occupation started and the i

and this assumption was totally wrong. right now, you know, civilians, citizens from gaza were involved in looting the villages, the kibbutzim and the moshavim nearby the border. they were also participated in all those really crazy events in gaza when they showed the corpse of israeli soldiers and citizens. you know israel is trying to improve their situation. and i think that, you know, after saturday there are less and less israelis who can really understand what is the basic logic of the palestinian people. not of hamas. and less and less israelis believe that if you will improve the situation of the palestinians in gaza so there will be less interest in promoting the escalation. this kind of formula, this kind of insight belongs to the past. and right now i think that, you know, as we mentioned before, boris, i think that we are in existential conflict, in an existential fight and therefore we will attempt any effort not to harm citizens but we must understand that this kind of conflict is different from the conflicts

up to and including the week of the 9th, the assumption was, you are suggesting there was some greatacross government, across the cabinet office department of health and sage, that lockdown was impossible in a western country, any way we didn't have the all of tinges that you needed in place to actual will do it, you didn't have test and trace and what not you would need to have afterwards, that vaccines were almost definitely not going to have any impact at least in 2020 and possibly never, so the whole point was, that up to and including the week of the 9th, the debate you keep referring to, there wasn't a debate, that was the whole problem, there wasn't a debate about the fundamental assumptions underlying plan a, there wasn't a debate until me and others started to i saying hang on a second, if you actually

so our assumptions at this particular — known before?ons at this particular time, _ known before? so our assumptions at this particular time, and _ known before? so our assumptions at this particular time, and what - known before? so our assumptions at this particular time, and what we - this particular time, and what we have been told in the weeks prior, that a suppression strategy wouldn't work, people could only undergo sort of 12 weeks of this kind of hard measures, so i think it is important to understand this, that suppression wouldn't work, and if we did suppress, as soon as we unlocked, we would then see a second spike, nhs overwhelmed, so i think it is important initially to say that the reason we didn't even consider or discuss a suppression strategy at that point was because the information was itjust wouldn't work. now on this point, obviously on the mitigation strategy, which the core of that was, wherever we were, along, elongated peak that would stay underneath the capacity levels for the nhs, and ensure that when we did a

long-term capital market assumptions gives them the roadmap. they are absolutely long-term.perts all around the world, fixed income, equities, alternatives and they look at 200 asset classes in 17 different currencies. what they are doing is adding the forward-looking assumptions of those asset classes to help guide and fuel what you are saying just what should the long-term for polio look like, whether it is institutional or folios and doing work with cios on set allocation or creating portfolios that are goals based for individuals. the long-term capital markets ease the roadmap to help them guide to their long-term goals. alix: barely you need active management which is why we like you guys. in terms of the alternative mass -- asset management, what does that actually look like? if everyone and the rom is getting into private credit and i wonder -- everyone and their mom is getting into private credit. monica: the key here on alternatives is not just being in the asset class, especially with the increased cost of capital, it is important who you are with which is why we s

the report is ambiguous and it on the assumptions because you have to make assumptions about russia andna and what assumption not hardly discussed is what russia will doing and conversely, a constraint in russia and at what level? the question of whether we do need additional capability deal with china and china is assessed to have 500 nuclear weapons, not all deployed compared to 4000 so something happening down the road more quickly than anticipated a couple of years ago for sure but we are not there yet so it is not laid out in the report and another important question i have, the commissioner emphasized the urgency of some decisions that should be made so we have options available in the future which makes sense but the report was unclear on the decisions have to be made because it is definitely not about keeping production lines more strategic 15 and 20 years so that is not the issue. it wasn't stated until that sense of urgency matched by a discussion, this isn't urgent and the members now, back to the contrary and one other thing, it goes back to the issue of we ought to think mo

one of the assumptions was that they put — a shell.y put the house _ a shell. one of the assumptions was that they put the house on - a shell. one of the assumptions was that they put the house on fire - a shell. one of the assumptions was that they put the house on fire to i that they put the house on fire to force my family out of the shelter, and then at gunpoint took them to the vehicles and to the borders. my sister... her husband, they are both 38. their child is eight years old. and another child, she is two years old... the age of my son. ten of her family ten of herfamily members ten of her family members are still missing, as well as her uncle's carer. in orderfor our team to try to work out from those who are missing who may have been taken hostage, we have been listening to the testimonies of dozens of families. inaudible. that have managed to track mobile phones before they were cut off. we have also been sent videos from families that appear to show their relatives being put into the back of vans and trucks before being d

such an assumption can be made.he statistics of destruction - tracer missiles, it is high enough, from the point of view of the use of our air defense systems, about shahedov, in the odesa direction, which were also used today, we are talking about statistics, 36 were launched, 27 were shot down, a fairly high figure, but we understand that now, on the one hand, we need to strengthen the odesa direction, where cover is provided for the ships carrying out the removal grain within our grain corridor and our commitments to our partners, and the emphasis here is that there have been statements , in particular from germany, that there will be front additional zerka that will be able to cover this area, and on the other hand, we repeat that history, that now the number of weapons technology is increasing, which allows you to destroy shaheds through the use of various systems using machine guns, detection systems , etc. slinger, it will expand, closer to winter we will see how the enemy will act, but in any case we underst

strength, everyone knew that, moreover, why did he oversleep, did sahal take it, let me make an assumption elite agreed with the first plan, but not with the american one, so this is not so to say, she gave this old israeli elite a slap in the face in this way, they could have arranged it for themselves, i understand that this is kind of my hypothesis, but it could very well be so, because yes, i’m absolutely right that in the second lebanese war, so so-called, there really were problems with the movement of troops there and so on and so forth, but this time it’s just some kind of indicative, and the most important thing is that the newspapers wrote about it, that this kind of war is being prepared, moreover, they were writing the outlines of a new war, this is really a new type of war, which our soldiers are studying there and have already learned, but for more than a year and a half of a special military operation, they didn’t give a damn at all. in this matter, we just discussed this, by the way, new time, ours, the newest, is different from everything that we have seen before, just lik

so the ground offensive is still an assumption. but if it were to happen, would the us still support israel financially? and technically, of course, there's no question about that, that's what biden made clear. and if in that case, if israel were to take gaza strip, then the us would still continue. sure. ok, clear words, talking about current sentiment in the us. how are people in america looking at this? well, i think the sympathy lies very current sentiment in the us. how are people in america much with israel. but of course, you know, there is a split in the democratic party to some degree, you do see people also in college campuses. unfortunately, i think not necessarily having enough information and realizing the difference between hamas and the palestinian people. and so i do think that the government, no matter republican or democrat will always support israel, just like for germany, israel is an important valuable partner for the united states. but i do think that the united states also would like to see a two state soluti

i wonder if you think that any assumptions about from us that these are very difficult to establish fund needs to have a read think about, especially when it contemplates its next goals of excellence as well. i'm sure that there's good, there was already a lot. are we thinking happening inside as well, about the overall approach? and if people, you know, remember to 9073 of tougher war, when as well was caught by surprise. and they say, they said then we, we can never let this happen again. and so let me so there's a whole culture in the end, there's really as security establishment about, you know, always questioning goal and assumptions, which is a very healthy thing to do right away. but somehow it fell apart in this case. why? because they did seen signs to come us was not planning anything in the near future . they're still be beacon from the last around to fighting angela song as well. and they were completely preoccupied with the strength of his brother and disorder border and the security of these rich supplements by wes thing. uh so um, so it was a failure of imagination. anyway

i wonder if you think that any assumptions about from us that these are very difficult to establish fund needs to have a read think about, especially when it contemplates its next goals of excell as well. i'm sure that there's good. there was already a lot of research thinking happening inside as well, about the overall approach. and if people, you know, remember to 9073 of tougher war and as well was caught by surprise. and they say they said then we, we can never let this happen again. and so let me so there's a whole culture in the end, there's really as security establishment about, you know, always questioning goal and assumptions, which is a very healthy thing to do right away. but somehow it fell apart in this case, why? because they did seen signs to come us was not planning anything in the near future . they're still be beacon from the last around to fighting angela song as well. and they were completely preoccupied with the strength of his brother and disorder border. and the security of is really supplements and you'll find the best thing. so um, so it was a failure of imagina

the assumptions were wrong for a couple of reasons. the first is nation state will always matter because the most essential to human nature will never change. 5500 years of recorded history teaches that, and that's why history repeats itself. now we change the way we live. we change the we dress, we change the way we speak. we change all kinds of things. but human nature will never change. and one of the core elements of human nature is this desire to belong. and that's why anywhere in the world that you put people together to ten people, they immediately want to join something and band together to do something. it's just a natural. and one of those things in the modern era and i mean the modern era in the last three or 400 years is the rise of nation states and belonging matter. so that's the first reason why it was wrong. now, the idea that we had that that would no longer matter. we would all now be citizens of a global economy, citizens of the world. we would you we wouldn't matter anymore. you know, that was a that people adopted

were you readily persuaded _ assumption was on the 11th.umption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that the herd - readily persuaded that the herd immunity approach, or rather the one wave strategy was the wrong way to go? tt wave strategy was the wrong way to 1 o? , wave strategy was the wrong way to o? , ., , ., , , wave strategy was the wrong way to no? ., _ ., wave strategy was the wrong way to go? it is obviously hard to reconstruct _ go? it is obviously hard to reconstruct psychology . go? it is obviously hard to - reconstruct psychology exactly, but i would say by this time, so certainly in the week of 9th, 10th, 11th, i had growing doubts on an hourly basis, by the 11th, i was pretty much in... so, by the 11th my view was, i have got an appalling feeling that i am being one of those like historic catastrophes likejuly 1914. i am not completely sure of it, but i have got some very smart people coming to me saying, this is, a fundamentally the strategy is wrong, misconceived, but also, at a practical level at this point, reme

but the assumption from israel policymakers is israel and s sya would not launch a war. there were assumptions made by hamas that hamas was quiescent because they were getting aid from qatar, from egypt, that gazans were working inside israel and that hamas wouldn't do anything this big. i think there were these intelligence warnings apparently also from the egyptians, but i think they were sort of ignored because they didn't fit the assumptions policymakers had about what hamas might be capable of. >> u.s. officials, as you know, are still weighing to what are extent iran was involved in the hamas attack against israel. what will it take for the u.s. intelligence community to make a complete determination on this very, very sensitive matter? >> that is a very good question. i imagine that what would be the most useful would be signals intercepts that nsa goes back over periods of the last several weeks and see if there's any kind of signals intercepts that indicate some kinds of heads-up or bank transfers or anything of that nature. so far, despite a week out from this

tim paused and dement days assumptions on the zoom bob way. is it fair to provide the void transition to democracy and to promote economic recovery? what kind of nonsense is that? well, this week, numerous local residents in her already especially young people, were protesting against the western functions of the measures were initially imposed decades ago and bump williams, helping increasingly opposing them as their country strengthens its relations with neighboring powers. the southern african development community group in which called the sanctions of atrocity comprises the wilson bob way is at vice president who we just heard from there. constantino chill wing recently declared that the country has lost more than a $150000000000.00 due to those sanctions. the us and the you impose them following allegations of electro fraud on human rights violations, accusation stuff. as in bob ways, government says we're on funded, here's local journalist, keep up this. it is estimated that sunsets have deprived zimbabwe over a $100000000000.00 worth o

now, the assumption is if they're going to go in and try to, for instance, rescue the captives, the assumption is that hamas is keeping them in areas that are heavily populated, for instance, like refugee camps, which is one of the most densely populated of gaza's eight refugee camps. that refugee camp is composed of streets that are extremely narrow. so it's going to be difficult for armor to get in. and, of course, it is so full of people that it is inevitable that civilians will be killed. and, of course, everyone knows there are no bomb shelters for civilians in gaza. so this is going to be a very difficult, very violent operation. and, of course, hamas, as we've seen this operation that this attack they launched on saturday was very well prepared. they clearly studied this operation long in advance, and taken captives was clearly one of the essential parts of that operation. and their assumption is probably that they have planned for the israeli counterattack, the israeli invasion inside of gaza. so, we've seen their capabilities are much greater than they have been in the past as well, s

you're making assumptions. i'm not willing to make assumptions. >> reporter: and there you go.ou know, the thing for her to say is that we're making assumptions. we're not making assumptions. we have the documents. we have the proof. we're also talking to sources and officials on the ground, senior law enforcement officials all raising concerns how the sheriff's office handled this. >> shimon, keep digging. great work. thank you. >> thank you. >>> just an hour, secretary of state antony blinken and u.s. defense minister lloyd austin will sit for a key hearing. >> that hear willing happen as we continue to see smoke rising over gaza. military operations still very much under way. stay with us. ♪ >>> these are live pictures to the left on your screen where smoke is rising over gaza. on the right a picture of capitol hill this morning where in just under an hour antony blinken and lloyd austin will both make their case to senate lawmakers for the biden administration's $105 billion emergency aid request for israel and ukraine. >> that funding has relatively wide bipartisan support

bishop's service in the holy assumption cathedral of the ukrainian orthodox church.etropolitan fyodor glorifies the early christian martyrs of faith, hope and love and their mother sophia, for the first time in the new julian style. today, the martyr is the entire ukrainian people, says the bishop in his sermon. today, satan is doing his lawlessness through the russians, he supposedly reigns, killing people by unleashing this war through these russian nazis. it's like satan. triumphs, but our task is to carry this cross with the understanding that in these difficult days, years, months, we have to serve our neighbor, show love for god's love, and then it will have meaning, and then we will pass these trials and be victorious, as and christ himself defeated satan. lord, today during the service, the liturgy, i saw that there is much more in the church. people than there were before the war, it seemed to me that way, or really, people started more now go to a ukrainian church? you know, i think that the number of people has increased, but this is a very striking fact,

and the assumption is real, that this is going to escalate, as you know, as things progress further and further into cause that is really is talking about maybe to putting a siege or getting into gaza city. so we will probably see more of that and northern front of incorporation with that, getting more and more active, bringing more israelis into the fire, you know, under fire switch from his paula into south of lebanon. and another area of concern at the moment is of course, the west bank, the united states national security advisors warranty netanyahu. he must reign in settlers in the west bank after instances of violence against policy. and you know, we've seen over the weekend some instances, we also know about himself said that in a talk to the media earlier this week, we've actually been hearing tonight that within is really a security apparatus, the ocean that had the head of the, of the, the police are, are warning that they are seeing more and more attempt bicep. there's just sort of insight violence to sort of we use this back the attention of the world and of these are the se

there were a lot of assumptions made about who hamas was and what their capabilities were. one of the key things that intelligence analysts do is you have assumptions for any assessment that you make. and the best analysts lay out literally your assumptions and over time, you have to go back and you have to challenge those and say hey, you know, is hamas the same as it was last year? the year before or actually are they better and learning? instead, they put a big wall up, the line of technology, and i think they just -- if anyone wants to go back and look at clarissa ward's report on training and how they missed it, we'll find out at a later stage. >> it is shocking about what israel missed in terms of the training and also the number of weapons and rockets that were amassed. this is the most heavily surveilled part of the world. it's never one thing. it's a lot of things. it happened over a long period of time. they amassed weapons. bring in components. the political aspect of this forced the idf to make choices so israeli defense forces, the people looking at this and a

but of course, that means hamas everyone's best assumption.tjust that means hamas everyone's best assumption. but of cotjust thathiseans hamas everyone's best assumption. but of cotjust thathis time hamas everyone's best assumption. but of cotjust thathis time usingimas won't just be this time using the people as a the palestinian people as a human they'll also be human shield. they'll also be using israeli people as a human shield have shield because they have hostages who they've hostages from israel who they've said they're keeping in tunnels. they're going to be putting them right might want to right where israel might want to strike to get rid of terrorist infrastructure strike to get rid of terrorist infr and |cture strike to get rid of terrorist infrand|cture got this in gaza. i >> and we've got this in gaza. i mean, what about the west bank? you one of the one of the you know, one of the one of the great from the free great cries from the free palestine campaign is that west bank illegally occupied bank has been illegally occupied . yo